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Scott3
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  #2465064 18-Apr-2020 20:12
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frankv:

Good article. The word I have difficulty with is "minimal". Whilst there's no doubt that WHO could have done much better than it did, I think that there's also no doubt that things would be *much* worse if there were no WHO at all.

 

I think my use of the term "minimal" was unduly harsh, and "Questionable" would have been better.

 

It is an interesting hypothetical situation regarding if there was no WHO. I do feel they communicated valuable information, but in the absence of their recommendation to not restrict travel, countries would have sort to prevent the spread out of china much more quickly.

 

It is difficult to tell if this would have contained the spread, or simply sped up the spread as people fled ahead of travel restrictions (as was the case at a regional level in Wuhan and Italy).

 

I should note that the WHO's position is to avoid undue economic harm to the origin country of a pandemic, hence reducing the risk of countries trying to conceal future serious pathogens. Noble, but doesn't always lead to the best short term response.




kingdragonfly
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  #2465069 18-Apr-2020 20:17
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Words of wisdom from "Steak-uuum"

In case you don't know what "Steak-uuum" are, from Wikipedia
In the 2012 lawsuit, Judge Lawrence Stengel described the product as "chopped and formed emulsified meat product that is comprised of beef trimmings left over after an animal is slaughtered and all of the primary cuts, such as tenderloin, filet, and rib eye, are removed. . . . The emulsified meat is pressed into a loaf and sliced, frozen and packaged."


From the Steak-uuum twitter feed:
"friendly reminder in times of uncertainty and misinformation: anecdotes are not data. (good) data is carefully measured and collected information based on a range of subject-dependent factors, including, but not limited to, controlled variables, meta-analysis, and randomization"

"note: all companies have a bottom line, so anything we publish is a form of propaganda to encourage positive association and memory with our brand, despite whatever our intentions. remember to consume advertising and PR with skepticism, even if the message is 'helpful'"

"most data around this crisis is incomplete, constantly evolving, and being politically warped, making it near impossible to interpret without context from relevant experts, especially since fear is so prevalent"

"exceptions rarely break rules and rules always have exceptions. in a post-truth era, understanding the scientific method and how our biases play into our data consumption is vital to curb the spread of incomplete or misleading information that the masses then believe as 'facts'"




dejadeadnz
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  #2465075 18-Apr-2020 20:54
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Technofreak:

 

I'm sorry I don't get your logic. These are just three events out of several hundred other similar events that were taking place at that time, yet you want to just call out the events that clusters have resulted from.

 

....

 

Can you honestly say that if you were the organiser of any of those events that you would have cancelled them based on the Level 1 restrictions? I doubt very few people would have.

 

 

Blah blah. Again, mixed in with your potshots is your refusal to acknowledge the reality that the authorities were calling for avoidance of unnecessary gatherings. And many large organisations had domestic and international travel bans by beginning of March in NZ. Furthermore, as I detailed 200-odd pages ago, the organisers of the cattle conference in particular is a Person Conducting a Business or Undertaking under the Health and Safety at Work Act and have duties to ensure that, so far as is reasonably practicable, their activities do not put others at risk. In this day and age, a prattle-on about cattle can be held via remote means.

 

And I have personal insight and experience in suffering financial loss through people taking the responsible choice not to travel in view of the outbreak. My partner and I gave up on around $7K worth of premium economy airfares paid for (and non-refundable) to attend a family reunion around the end of February on her side  because the organisers rightly cancelled it after they noted the risk of the gathering to the vulnerable attendees.

 

Not everyone is self-obsessed.

 

 




freitasm
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  #2465094 18-Apr-2020 21:44
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debo
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  #2465098 18-Apr-2020 21:56
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Scott3:

 

dejadeadnz:     ... the idiotic couple who went ahead with the wedding in Bluff when all au dickish ... 

 

... Likely they feel pretty bad about it already,   

 

Bad is massive understatement.   The groom's dad died.  It is going to make wedding anniversary's reasonably  sad.   @dejadeadnz I think is a little bit harsh to call them dickish. 


dejadeadnz
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  #2465099 18-Apr-2020 22:01
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We agree to differ. The suffering out of the clusters I cited were avoidable if people had just followed government advice on social distancing (i.e. The Matamata St Patrick's Day cluster) and advice to cease unnecessary large gatherings. If I had to feel sorry for anyone, I'd rather focus on the deceased and not the groom in Bluff.

 

 


Technofreak
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  #2465102 18-Apr-2020 22:17
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dejadeadnz:

 

 

 

Blah blah. Again, mixed in with your potshots is your refusal to acknowledge the reality that the authorities were calling for avoidance of unnecessary gatherings. And many large organisations had domestic and international travel bans by beginning of March in NZ. Furthermore, as I detailed 200-odd pages ago, the organisers of the cattle conference in particular is a Person Conducting a Business or Undertaking under the Health and Safety at Work Act and have duties to ensure that, so far as is reasonably practicable, their activities do not put others at risk. In this day and age, a prattle-on about cattle can be held via remote means.

 

And I have personal insight and experience in suffering financial loss through people taking the responsible choice not to travel in view of the outbreak. My partner and I gave up on around $7K worth of premium economy airfares paid for (and non-refundable) to attend a family reunion around the end of February on her side  because the organisers rightly cancelled it after they noted the risk of the gathering to the vulnerable attendees.

 

Not everyone is self-obsessed.

 

 

 

 

The first time I can find anything official about avoiding gatherings is the 16th of March when a halt to public gatherings of more than 500 people was announced. Perhaps you can furnish other information. Two of the events you referred were finished or as good as finished by then. 

 

The next official information on gatherings is on the 19th or March when the cancellation of indoor gatherings of more than 100 people was announced. Whether or not the wedding should have been called off is a debatable point. I can see arguments both ways. I bet there were a whole heap of weddings in New Zealand that weekend or in the few days before hand. There were even news reports of a couple bringing their wedding forward to beat the lockdown.  Only one resulted in a cluster.

 

I think that given the situation in New Zealand at the time those events took place, the decision to go ahead with those events was a reasonable decision. On the other hand you don't agree it was reasonable but you seem to over look my main point, that it was unnecessary for you to call the organisers dickheads and idiots. You can disagree without being so nasty.

 

You mention you have personal experience with suffering financial loss due to the Covid 19 pandemic. You don't mention whether or not you would have gone if the reunion hadn't been cancelled. Forgive me if I have gained the wrong impression but your post reads as if you decided not to travel because the event was cancelled.

 

Depending on where the reunion was I wouldn't have been travelling no matter whether or not it had been cancelled.





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  #2465103 18-Apr-2020 22:17
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frankv: Good article. The word I have difficulty with is "minimal". Whilst there's no doubt that WHO could have done much better than it did, I think that there's also no doubt that things would be *much* worse if there were no WHO at all.

 

another WHO video, not sure if allowed. please delete if not allowed.

 

 


dejadeadnz
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  #2465104 18-Apr-2020 22:20
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And people need to understand what accountability means. This doesn't mean for anyone to track down the groom or post on his social media accounts that he killed his dad and to give him a piece of your mind unrestrained. What I mean by accountability is to properly describe and characterise the choices of the three sets of organisers of the idiotic (and illustrative) events in question to prioritise personal desires/profits over the health of their attendees when they was plenty of information available for any thinking person to make better decisions: selfish and ignorant would be my picks, amongst other words. Emotionally blackmailing people into staying silent or avoiding the asking of reasonable questions is not a good thing from a public health POV, nor is it intellectually honest.

 

Veto by sympathetic mob is not what we need here.


dejadeadnz
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  #2465107 18-Apr-2020 22:36
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Technofreak:

 

The first time I can find anything official about avoiding gatherings is the 16th of March when a halt to public gatherings of more than 500 people was announced. Perhaps you can furnish other information. Two of the events you referred were finished or as good as finished by then. 

 

The next official information on gatherings is on the 19th or March when the cancellation of indoor gatherings of more than 100 people was announced. Whether or not the wedding should have been called off is a debatable point. I can see arguments both ways. I bet there were a whole heap of weddings in New Zealand that weekend or in the few days before hand. There were even news reports of a couple bringing their wedding forward to beat the lockdown.  Only one resulted in a cluster.

 

I think that given that situation in New Zealand at the time those events took place, the decision to go ahead with those events was a reasonable decision. On the other hand you don't agree it was reasonable but you seem to over look my main point, that it was unnecessary for you to call the organisers dickheads and idiots. You can disagree without being so nasty.

 

You mention you have personal experience with suffering financial loss due to the Covid 19 pandemic. You don't mention whether or not you would have gone if the reunion hadn't been cancelled. Forgive me if I have gained the wrong impression but your post reads as if you decided not to travel because the event was cancelled.

 

Depending on where the reunion was I wouldn't have been travelling no matter whether or not it had been cancelled.

 

 

Again, you just keep ignoring evidence that is unfavourable to your POV. The organisers of the stupid cattle conference simply could not guarantee that the guests (many of whom travelled from overseas) would not be bringing back a disease that was widely known to be highly transmissible due to having transited through or coming from COVID-19 hot zones. This when set against the background that such a prattle on could have been held via non-contact means, suggest that they had failed to discharge the very high duty of care under the Health and Safety at Work Act. The same point (minus the Health and Safety at Work Act obligation) is easily applicable to the muppets who decided to continue their wedding -- and you also have to consider that in a typical wedding, people will do lots of hand shaking, hugging and social kissing. You don't have a problem with that?

 

If your best argument is that "They didn't breach any explicit prohibition!" then really I despair for humanity. The law/guidelines are a floor and not a ceiling. There's no law against not rescuing a drowning child if you can do so without putting yourself at risk -- this doesn't mean that you aren't an arse if you are in a position to do so but decided to carry on playing with your phone instead.

 

And you completely missed the point about my personal situation: the point is that the organiser chose to cancel and my partner and I chose to forgo the considerable airfare expense. After all, we could have still gone and had a holiday because the airfares were a sunk cost. My point is that a very large group of people all collectively did not travel overseas from different parts of the world during that time because we (rightly) judged that to do so was an unreasonable risk to our own health, the destination country's health, and our community's health (e.g. colleagues/friends when you return home). And lots of people put aside considerable financial losses and personal disappointment to do so. 

 

And, therefore, from my vantage point you can take a jump with your claim that if I and others were in those idiots' position, we also would have gone ahead. 

 

 


frankv
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  #2465108 18-Apr-2020 22:37
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dejadeadnz: ... the authorities were calling for avoidance of unnecessary gatherings.


But that's the whole point: if it was absolutely necessary that gatherings not take place, the authorities could (and should) have made them illegal. After all, the authorities have a lot more information than any citizen, and that's how authorities tell you what you are not allowed to do. Anything else is a judgment call... grandmother is sickly and won't live another 6 months, Aunt Enid has no money but has come all the way from Oamaru, cousin Bill has flown in from London and flies out again next week. We've paid tens of thousands for the venue and the dress and the cake and all the rest. We're a conservative family and next month the baby will be showing. Should we call the wedding off? Is this ceremony unnecessary?

Again, the government has left it to the individuals to decide, although they suggest you don't. Lots of other times government advice hasn't been great, and, often as not, it's ok to not follow it.

Why do we now have level 4 lockdown, empowered by the Public Health Act (or whatever the legislation is called) and police fining and jailing people? Why don't the authorities just call for us to stay home unless necessary? The government's job is to govern, and to put limits on people's behaviour where necessary.

freitasm
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  #2465110 18-Apr-2020 22:41
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I think this is well discussed so we can go on back to the main topic now.




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dejadeadnz
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  #2465111 18-Apr-2020 22:42
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Frankv: People actually are capable of using their brains. Again, you seem determined to ignore how many organisations had banned non-essential domestic and international travel, by way of example. I am hardly some rabid anti-government type but even I wouldn't want the government to rush to just ban everything the moment there's an assessed danger as a matter of first response. It seems that most people got the hint in this instance and started following advisories but certain muppets decided their need for some jollies and cash was more important. Hold them accountable as they had far more influence on whether the risk materialised.

 

Edit: Made clear who I was replying to. And frankly I am not going to keep this argument alive. Some people want to spend their time being Mr Sympathetic for people who just won't listen. Cool - have it your way. I am out on that discussion.

 

 

 

 

 

 


mattwnz
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  #2465114 18-Apr-2020 23:04
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This is a bit of a concern, especially for countries that are heading down the 'herd immunity' / 'flattening the curve route' like  the UK and USA.

 

Coronavirus Antibodies May Not Make You Immune, WHO Warns

 

There is no evidence to suggest that recovered coronavirus patients and former asymptomatic carriers who have coronavirus antibodies in their blood will have long-term COVID-19 immunity, the World Health Organization said in a press conference on Friday 17/4

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marleycoyne/2020/04/17/coronavirus-antibodies-may-not-make-you-immune-who-warns/#3c3d01cb133a 

 

Then in the UK, a former British head of the WHO has said that UK may have 8 to 10 waves of the virus before it reaches herd immunity. However if long term immunity isn't possible as per the WHO, then I am not sure what happens until a vaccine comes along. 

 

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/17/britain-face-10-waves-coronavirus-reaching-herd-immunity-12570597/

 

 

 

Also notice both those countries are asking people to wear masks all the time when out. Even to make their own mask covering the face.


mattwnz
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  #2465160 18-Apr-2020 23:46
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tdgeek:

 

Seems quite random. Everyone has to eat, we test the food buyers, who live in a house with other food eaters. In many cases you are testing the family at home, or the flatmates at home.

 

The 13 cases, did they state that they are all linked to known cases? 

 

 

I think they would mainly be getting people of a certain age bracket, because people over 70 can't go to the supermarket and get it delivered, and most people under 18 would also not be shopping either. Also it wouldn't be getting those people who use food banks for example.  The DG also did say early on, that the tests they use weren't very accurate for those not showing symptoms yet, so there is the potential for false negatives anyway. 

 

But the real problem though, is that the number sampled is way way too low. They had an expert on TV One news, who  confirmed this, said they need to be doing 10's of thousands of sample tests.

 

If you think about it in simple terms like this. Say you had $5,000,000 dollars in the form of $1 coins in a room. Each coin represents a person in NZ.  Someone has painted say 200 of those coins with red paint, which represents someone who maybe infected, by not yet showing symptoms. This is purely taking a guess on what the infected number today could be, based on the R0 being about 0.5 as per modeling, and infections under level 4 have been falling. 

 

If you were told to pick 600 coins from that 5,000,000 $1 coins, do you think you would have much of a chance in getting a coin painted red? Whereas if you were to pick 100,000 coins, you would have a far higher chance of getting at least 1 red coin. But  there is still a very high chance that you also wouldn't get a red coin. Of course they have tried testing in areas where there are known clusters, which may increase their chances a bit, but they would still need a far larger sample, based on the current small number, but that number can quickly grow when the virus is allowed to spread. 

 

So IMO they need to do 10's of thousands of tests if they were to do things that way, but even then it may not tell the full story.  But they have run out of time to do those by Monday when they report to the gov. I just really hope that the limited sampling they have done isn't used to provide some form of assurance that there aren't many undetected cases around the area.  As they can do 5000 tests a day, they could over the next few weeks do 50,000 tests to start to get a better sample, and to account for false negatives. But the more the better IMO


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