2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2479296 8-May-2020 15:38

Can't find the original message any more to quote but it was about Auckland's water shortage and why the Waikato River doesn't address is:

Watercare:

Over the past year, we have been maximising production at our Waikato and Onehunga water treatment plants to reduce the demand on our water storage dams. Our team is currently working on an expansion of our Waikato plant that will allow us to treat a further 25 million litres a day. We expect this to be operational later this winter.

So they're already taking all they can, and trying to get more.

tdgeek

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#2479377 8-May-2020 16:07

neb: Can't find the original message any more to quote but it was about Auckland's water shortage and why the Waikato River doesn't address is:
Watercare: Over the past year, we have been maximising production at our Waikato and Onehunga water treatment plants to reduce the demand on our water storage dams. Our team is currently working on an expansion of our Waikato plant that will allow us to treat a further 25 million litres a day. We expect this to be operational later this winter.
So they're already taking all they can, and trying to get more.

Im sure this has relevance to Covid-19, but darn, I cant figure it out! :-)

neb

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#2479382 8-May-2020 16:10

tdgeek:
Im sure this has relevance to Covid-19, but darn, I cant figure it out! :-)

It came up earlier in the thread, the "why not use the Waikato" in particular was an unanswered question from the discussion.

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#2479406 8-May-2020 16:25

dejadeadnz:

Lawless bureaucrats behaving lawlessly and causing unnecessary suffering, episode [I have lost count]:

WINZ unlawfully taking into account person's redundancy payment in denying benefit

No words. Our public service has just been a constant stream of embarrassment and lawlessness, from big to small (e.g. the MoH making up laws as they go along in handling exceptional applications, INZ handling an urgent request to enter NZ borders so slowly that the person's mother had passed away after 2 weeks+, and 1000 INZ staff not being able to work due to their IT), throughout the COVID-19 crisis. And I am not an reflexive government basher either.

Disgraceful.

This kind of thing really bothers me. It seems to happen a lot through different ministries and under different governments. We must be able to have confidence in the competence of our officials, that they know what they are talking about and that what they say is the truth. Otherwise this undermines the credibility of our entire system of government. There should be zero tolerance for this kind of mistake. If you can't believe what people in authority tell you, how can you believe anything the government says? I hate being put in the position of an alt-right conspiracy theorist but this kind of crap doesn't help. Government agencies should be scrupulous in this regard and if they are not, there needs to be a major clear-out.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2479412 8-May-2020 16:30

@mattwnz: And anyone else interested. Apologies, a long post!

This version compares NZ with NSW, the worst affected Australian state and the only one I have located daily data for local cases yet (albeit digitised off plotted data). Source for NSW data is www.health.nsw.gov.au, updated to 8pm, 7 May. See previous posts (#2476528, #2478006) for details re the plot below. A couple of added points. The dates for the NSW data are 'Date of onset' vs dates for NZ cases now labelled as ‘Date notified of potential case’. Also, in the plot below (but not the table) 'Local' for NSW excludes interstate cases (as per the plot I digitised). Interstate possibly not that different from NZ imported from AU? Most of the 68 interstate cases are likely from earlier dates since interstate travel now restricted.

Also added ‘NZ Confirmed local cases’ in addition to all Confirmed + Probable local cases. Not so certain about excluding all NZ Probable cases though. In some time periods there seem rather a lot and MOH do not seem to be making much progress on clarify/confirming these. Would seem an ideal application for serologic testing; ie. of all Probable cases.

Have not located any corresponding timeline local case data for other states. However, stats for total cases per state at 7 May are compared with corresponding NZ data in the table below. (Update: have found one source, but the data are by press release date, which is not so helpful).

Observations:

NSW had significantly fewer local cases per capita than NZ at the start of April and only reached ‘parity’ with our (C+P) local cases around the start of May.

The rate of decrease in NSW local cases post-'lockdown' is noticeably slower than for NZ (C+P) local cases. A reflection of their softer lockdown?

Except that over the last ~4 weeks ‘NZ Confirmed cases’ have tracked down the almost exactly same trend line as NSW. So, if discount Probable cases (as MOH seem increasingly to be pushing) then our situation over the last ~month has been effectively the same as NSW. Not so positive, especially projecting out over the next month or so? Move to L3 yet to fully show up and likely soon to drop down to L2.

As for NZ, the downwards trend in the NSW data is strongly exponential. Seem to get more rational trends when remove imported cases and plot by onset date.

Imported cases account for a higher proportion of cases in Australia than in NZ, markedly so in some states (SA 58%, QLD 67%, WA 85% vs NZ 37% or 45% - see table). Not shown, NT 90% (the other 10% may be interstate), ACT 78%, Tasmania 35%.

All the larger states other than NSW have significantly fewer local cases per capita than NZ. SA & WA in particular are closer to elimination than NZ – WA over a week since last local case, SA 17 days. SA one imported case yesterday (first case in 15 days, and that an historical one), and 99.5% of cases recovered. WA 98% recovered (11 active, 7 May). Also, ACT no new local cases in 2 weeks.

On press release numbers over the 3 weeks to 7 May, QLD had 39 new cases (Local + Imported + Interstate) vs NZ 40 Confirmed + 31 Probable. Over that time QLD had one period of 3 days, and another of 4 days with no cases so we should not read too much into two days here with none. In the first week of May, QLD 12 new cases (5 local, 7 under investigation), NZ 14 Confirmed + net 3 Probable; ie. currently QLD and NZ are in similar situations.

Victoria is perhaps an outlier, with fewer local cases per capita than NZ but a cluster spike in the last week (tapering down over the last 4 days).

Tasmania and Victoria aside, the current situation in Australia in regards to new local cases is similar (NSW & QLD) or better than in NZ (WA, SA, ACT ... & NT!).

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#2479419 8-May-2020 16:49

Washington Post: Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the U.S. is optimistic in the age of coronavirus

Among the ambassadors stuck in Washington during the coronavirus pandemic, Stanley Kao is in a unique position. He represents the Taiwanese government, which saw some of the earliest cases of the epidemic outside of China and is also a geopolitical rival of Beijing.

But from an official U.S. perspective, he isn’t actually an ambassador. Instead, as representative for the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, he’s a diplomat in a de facto sense...

Taiwan has been widely praised for its surprise success in battling covid-19, despite its proximity to mainland China. There have been fewer than 450 confirmed cases among its 23 million people. Taiwan has not reported a case of local transmission for 24 days, and only six people have died.

In Washington — a city with a population roughly 3 percent of Taiwan’s and more than 250 covid-19 deaths — Kao has found himself in demand, appearing via video to lawmakers, officials and private-sector figures to detail how his nation succeeded as others failed.

And Taiwan wants to offer more than just advice. In just the past month, Kao said, Taiwan has donated more than 30 million surgical masks to other countries, including 5 million to the United States. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s lack of involvement with the World Health Organization — and the ensuing war of words with the WHO secretariat — has brought renewed focus on the practical consequences of Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation.

“Life is not always fair and neither is international politics,” said Kao, who at 66 years old has worked in the field for four decades. “But Taiwan has its strengths, and we like to play our strengths."

Indeed, the pandemic has made Taiwan look strong. Its success has been hailed alongside nations like New Zealand and Vietnam. Taipei has highlighted what it dubs the “Taiwan model,” pointing to its national health insurance system, big data and artificial intelligence, and public-private partnerships, among other factors.

Kao noted that despite the low number of cases, the island didn’t fully lock down. Schools and universities remained open, as did many stores and restaurants. “So far we are still able to enjoy professional baseball,” the representative said, though fans have to watch from home.

A fast, independent and transparent approach was partly responsible for Taiwan’s success, Kao said. “We learned from the 2003 SARS epidemic the hard way,” he said, referring to the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome that saw Taiwan battling the virus without the coordination afforded by WHO recognition. There were 73 SARS deaths in Taiwan.

Seventeen years later, WHO recognition remains an issue for Taiwan. It was granted observer status at the World Health Assembly, the WHO’s decision-making body, for eight years. But since the election of Taiwan’s pro-status quo President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, Beijing has pushed international organizations to follow its “One China” policy, which views Taiwan as a renegade province and its government as illegitimate.
...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/05/07/taiwans-de-facto-ambassador-us-is-optimistic-age-coronavirus/

mattwnz

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#2479420 8-May-2020 16:49

@DS248 Thanks. Very interesting stats.

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kingdragonfly

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#2479426 8-May-2020 16:59

New York Times: Aussie and Kiwi to Cool Their Heels After Red-Hot Rally: Reuters Poll

SYDNEY — Analysts suspect the Australian and New Zealand dollars have climbed too far, too fast and a pullback is likely in the near term, though both are expected to move higher over a one-year horizon.

Analysts polled by Reuters see the Aussie at US $0.63 in one month, up sharply from the US $0.60 level predicted in the April survey.

Yet that would be down from the current US $0.65, which it reached in a blistering rally over recent weeks. The currency had hit a 17-year trough of US $0.55 in mid-March as lockdowns for the coronavirus sent global markets into a panic.

...The New Zealand dollar has also rallied from its lows, though not by as much as its neighbour. It is currently trading at US $0.61 having briefly been down as deep as US $0.55 at one point in March.

Analysts now saw it pulling back modestly to USD $0.60 on a one- and three-month horizon, before rising again to US $0.62 in six months and US $0.64 in 12 months.

It will face a test next week when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds a policy meeting amid speculation it might double the total for how much government bonds it plans to buy to NZ$60 billion.

Some analysts think it might even resort to negative interest rates later in the year, a drastic shift that would likely drag on the kiwi dollar.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/08/world/asia/08reuters-forex-poll-aud-poll.html

kingdragonfly

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#2479431 8-May-2020 17:04

New York Times: New Zealand First-Quarter Jobless Rate Inches Up but Coronavirus Shock to Be Reflected in Next Quarter

WELLINGTON — New Zealand's jobless rate rose to 4.2% in the first quarter ahead of a strict lockdown that was enforced to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus, according to data released by Statistics New Zealand on Wednesday.

The headline figure was only slightly higher than a 4.0% jobless rate in the last quarter and lower than forecasts by economists polled by Reuters who predicted a 4.3% increase in the unemployment rate.

Employment rose 0.7% quarter on quarter, while private sector wages rose 2.5% on the year.

The data reflected the state of the labour market before the five-week alert level 4 lockdown, imposed in New Zealand to stem the spread of COVID-19. The lockdown was eased on April 28 but several restrictions are still in place across the country.

"Any impacts of COVID-19 on jobs are not yet being seen in this employment indicator," said Sue Chapman from Statistics New Zealand.

"The lockdown didn’t occur until the last week of March, so we’re expecting limited impact on this month’s numbers."

New Zealand is expecting hundreds of thousands of job losses in the coming months due to the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson has said the unemployment rate could be kept below 10%, and return to 5% in 2021 with additional government support.

"Although these data paint a positive picture, the reality is that lives and livelihoods are being significantly affected by the COVID-19 crisis, and the labour market is deteriorating," ANZ Senior Economist Liz Kendall said.
...

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/05/world/asia/05reuters-newzealand-economy-employment.html

frankv

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#2479434 8-May-2020 17:10

neb:

In particular any story based on margin-of-error noise-level measurements is pure speculation and most likely wrong.

Yup... "Covid-19 could wipe out the human race" is a great headline for click-throughs.

My rule of thumb is to replace "could" in any headline with "probably won't".

mattwnz

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#2479436 8-May-2020 17:13

tdgeek:
Im sure this has relevance to Covid-19, but darn, I cant figure it out! :-)

Handwashing as we don't want people not washing their hands to try and save water , when it was seen as one of the best ways to fight the virus.

DS248

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#2479441 8-May-2020 17:27

one way to lower restaurant risk!

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/07/world/dutch-restaurant-reopen-greenhouse-trnd/index.html

Tinkerisk

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#2479442 8-May-2020 17:30

+++ The forensic doctors at the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE) have obtained new insights into the course of the disease from Covid-19 from post-mortem surveys. Around 170 deceased Covid-19 patients have been examined at the UKE Institute of Forensic Medicine in the past few weeks - by far the most autopsies in one federal state. Thromboses and fatal pulmonary embolisms were found frequently in the autopsies. In a first evaluation, twelve deceased were examined in more detail, seven of them had these clinical pictures. Four of the twelve patients died directly from pulmonary embolism. Before they died, there was no corresponding suspicion among those affected. Klaus Püschel, director at the Institute of Forensic Medicine at the UKE, also found evidence of pulmonary embolism during the other autopsies in Hamburg.

This important information is transferred into the treatment of corona patients and it is carefully considered whether patients can be treated primarily with a blood thinner. +++

ref: https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2765934/autopsy-findings-venous-thromboembolism-patients-covid-19-prospective-cohort-study

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DS248

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#2479445 8-May-2020 17:32

Certainly feel more comfortable with Australia's proposed Step 1 & 2 gathering sizes than our L2 proposals.

That is something that really needs revisiting for our L2.

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-05-08-20-intl/h_d3df199ba150c3e1baa6fa12b7dd63b4

Step 1:

Gatherings of up to 10 people will be permitted
...
Up to 30 people will be allowed to attend funerals outdoors
Up to 10 people will be allowed to attend weddings outdoors

Step 2:

Gatherings of up to 20 people will be permitted, including for venues like movie theaters and galleries

nzkiwiman

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#2479454 8-May-2020 18:01

DS248:

Certainly feel more comfortable with Australia's proposed Step 1 & 2 gathering sizes than our L2 proposals.

That is something that really needs revisiting for our L2.

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-05-08-20-intl/h_d3df199ba150c3e1baa6fa12b7dd63b4

Step 1:

Gatherings of up to 10 people will be permitted
...
Up to 30 people will be allowed to attend funerals outdoors
Up to 10 people will be allowed to attend weddings outdoors
Step 2:

Gatherings of up to 20 people will be permitted, including for venues like movie theaters and galleries

I mentioned this as one of my concerns in post #2479274
Australia's approach does seem more sensible

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