2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 661 | 662 | 663 | 664 | 665 | 666 | 667 | 668 | 669 | 670 | 671 | ... | 2423

29749 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2491189 25-May-2020 16:53

mattwnz:

I really see very little difference between level 1 and 2. Gathering limits seems to be the main one. But IMO when we still have active cases in NZ that aren't quarantined, we need to be cautious.

Do we? We don't know, there may be a few , there may well be zero .The virus has been stripped of hosts, time goes by, it does seem that its possible, even likely there is hardly any out there. If there was, we would surely get new cases every few days. From a post here, maybe Welly? The other day we had 13 straight days of no cases, the odd ones reported were historical, and added for the WHO count that we supply. No new cases for two weeks.

The point now, is that the current measures are a risk. But we can't remove risk forever. The economy has taken a back seat, and that's paid off, it does need to take a front seat, so when you have have 100 at a bar, the high economic benefit far outstrips the really low risk.If we had a mini outbreak due to a bar, "some areas/people" will find themselves in L3 or more for a period. Cannot avoid that, well we could if we stayed at L4 for a year. Right now the risk of a new case is really low, so the risk of catching it is super low. Its time for business.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2491217 25-May-2020 17:49

This information from Singapore seems pretty good / optimistic:

Based on the accumulated data since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 in symptomatic individuals may begin around 2 days before the onset of symptoms, and persists for about 7 - 10 days after the onset of symptoms. Active viral replication drops quickly after the first week, and viable virus was not found after the second week of illness despite the persistence of PCR detection of RNA. These findings are supported by epidemiologic, microbiologic and clinical data. These new findings allow for revised discharge criteria based on the data on the time course of infectiousness rather than the absence of RNA detection by PCR testing, taking into consideration both the clinical and public health perspectives, including the individual patient’s physical and mental well-being. In addition, given these findings, resources can focus on testing persons with acute respiratory symptoms and suspected
COVID-19 in early presentation, allowing timelier public health intervention and containment.

So after 10 days from onset of symptoms most are not infectious. The 14 day isolation/quarantine period may be just enough, and there's low risk from false-negative PCR tests allowing "accidental" premature discharge of recovered patients (as even if they still tested positive with PCR - they probably aren't a risk).

Given that there were reports of patients testing positive using PCR many weeks after developing symptoms and that anyway the PCR tests are prone to false negatives, and that it was believed to be readily transmitted by fomites, I was sceptical that we'd ever control it in NZ. But we did. Other data from US CDC now suggests that it's not very easily transmissible by fomites.

The increased crowd limit of 100 here does bother me a bit though. The two largest NZ clusters were at events with <100 (Bluff wedding and Matamata Pub St Pats day booze-up). These are ideal for transmission by droplets as they're often loud, people have to be close and talk loudly to hear each other. We'll see I guess - it's really important that people get tested for any possible symptoms.

kingdragonfly

11197 posts

Uber Geek

Subscriber

#2491251 25-May-2020 19:08

Insider: A Wisconsin woman with lupus has taken hydroxychloroquine for 19 years and still got COVID-19

A Wisconsin woman with lupus says she has taken hydroxychloroquine for 19 years and still was infected with the coronavirus.

On Monday, President Trump announced he was taking the drug for "a week and a half" after two staffers tested positive.

The woman, identified as Kim, told WISN Channel 12 she's mad at Trump for promoting hydroxychloroquine. "You're not safe taking that medication at all," she added

https://www.insider.com/woman-took-hydroxychloroquine-19-years-still-got-covid-19-2020-5

Oblivian

7300 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

#2491269 25-May-2020 20:23

Being a roaming onsite, I took one for the team at lunchtime today.

Fairly sure sneezes and runny nose yesterday was most likely a 'WHAT IS THIS WORK THING GOING ON!' after a busy week vs few weeks of stress-less leisure remote work.

But, Since the going trend is despite lack of exposure get tested anyway or be chased by pitchforks and torches if you think of sneezing in a public place..

I won't be volunteering for that again in a hurry. Relaxed enough state the going in was all no issue. I thought I can handle this. Then the 10second rotate to collect data, I didn't like so much.

Nasals actually feel a little more irritated now than it did before I started (today was a better day than yesterday)

But hey. Helps the statistics right!

Handle9

11391 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2491330 25-May-2020 20:24

freitasm:

Press release:

Further support for New Zealanders affected by 1-in-100 year global economic shock
12-week payment will support people searching for new work or retraining
Work programme on employment insurance to support workers and businesses
...

Basically this is the dole for the urban (likely white) middle class. If this doesn't recognise the ridiculously low levels of the normal benefits I don't know what does.

I'm sure the usual beneficiary bashing won't happen with this which is even more reprehensible.

It's also a very effective election bribe.

dejadeadnz

2394 posts

Uber Geek
Inactive user

#2491401 25-May-2020 21:18

Handle9:

I'm sure the usual beneficiary bashing won't happen with this which is even more reprehensible.

When it's for hard working white people/mainstream New Zealanders (whatever that means), it's an entitlement.

Yep - welcome to NZ where thinking.... doesn't happen often.

Geektastic

17943 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2491409 25-May-2020 21:39

At the end of the day, none of it is sustainable for any length of time.

You can’t have a society like we do without net tax payers. Ergo, you can’t keep paying people from government sources ad infitum.

Sharesies

Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).

Batman

Mad Scientist
29766 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2491411 25-May-2020 21:41

wellygary:

Unless there is a whole lot of COVID out there undetected, its becoming more and more likely that NZ could be in a situation in 2 weeks where we have no local active cases, and that is certainly likely to apply by June 22...

..

Anyone returning to NZ could still be an active case, so I don't think we will ever get down to zero active cases that aren't at least in quarantine. The quarantining does seem to be working, as it is both catching cases, and those people are then being isolated and monitored properly. None of this self isolation rubbish. Also some active cases can potentially take several months to recover, so if there was a new case last week, then that adds to the period where we still have active cases. Not unless we start to quarantine all active cases to ring fence them,and prevent any risk of them infecting the community / people in their household.

..

That's why I specifically used the term "Local active cases" which are those excluding quarantined arrivals,

But yes, as you say there will always be new actives arriving from offshore, but that's what the 14 quarantine is for...

sorry for all the quotes but if i'm not mistaken PM said they are seeing people test positive 4 weeks after contact.

so this 14 day is to catch most but they are giving room that there may be outliers.

mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2491481 26-May-2020 01:33

Batman:

sorry for all the quotes but if i'm not mistaken PM said they are seeing people test positive 4 weeks after contact.

so this 14 day is to catch most but they are giving room that there may be outliers.

The outliers IMO are potentially where the leaks potentially could occur. Once these cases come into NZ, they become local and are counted as NZ's cases. So if people test positive, and then fell a lot better, but they don't really recover, as they aren't tested again to make sure they have recovered according to reports. So if they do still have the virus in their systems, and are still potentially infectious in the community, then they could potentially spread the virus. During Level 4 and 3, this wasn't such an issue, due to the physical distancing. But once we relax down to a more relaxed level 2 or 1, that is when the virus could then take advantage. Whether the virus changes, or has changed, we don't know. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Batman

Mad Scientist
29766 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2491493 26-May-2020 06:41

I was trying to find the exact words said about this "more than 14 days" quirk of the virus and re-reading the article it's a paraphrase not a direct quote.

Does anyone know what the exact speech and context was? Keen to know how many we have that are showing up 4 weeks later - i think it refers to one of the contacts in the Marist cluster IIRC.

Regardless, the most important thing is that the leader of the govt understands 14 days is not a 100% virus free guarantee.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12334530

Somewhere in the 5th or 6th line - early in the article anyhow

"It's about risk mitigation." Although New Zealand was in a good place, she said, Covid-19 was still showing up in people four weeks later.

wellygary

8328 posts

Uber Geek

#2491575 26-May-2020 09:47

mattwnz:

The outliers IMO are potentially where the leaks potentially could occur. Once these cases come into NZ, they become local and are counted as NZ's cases. So if people test positive, and then fell a lot better, but they don't really recover, as they aren't tested again to make sure they have recovered according to reports. So if they do still have the virus in their systems, and are still potentially infectious in the community, then they could potentially spread the virus. During Level 4 and 3, this wasn't such an issue, due to the physical distancing. But once we relax down to a more relaxed level 2 or 1, that is when the virus could then take advantage. Whether the virus changes, or has changed, we don't know. It will be interesting to see what happens.

From Bloomfield this morning (26 May) , While they are testing Positive, they are not infectious...

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/417530/contact-tracing-for-groups-of-100-possible-in-two-days-dr-ashley-bloomfield

"He said the two-week quarantine was still the gold standard being used around the world.

"The thing here is that we are finding people that are still testing positive some weeks after their initial symptoms but what seems to becoming clear ... is that they are not actually infectious.""

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2491578 26-May-2020 09:51

But if the information from Singapore is correct - then even if a person tests positive using RNA testing >10 days after onset of symptoms, they're not likely to pass on the virus. They checked this by trying to culture the virus from swabs. The RNA test detects presence of viral RNA in a sample - it can't tell if there are viable viruses - it could be detecting fragments of RNA from viruses "killed" by our immune system. I think we had a case here of someone with a history of overseas travel testing positive about a month after arrival. I wonder if she'd have tested positive/infectious by culturing a swab. I think it was reported that she was tested "after developing symptoms" - but the symptoms can be so mild it could be anything - and by coincidence the test picked up RNA fragments from a "recovered" case.

Batman

Mad Scientist
29766 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2491712 26-May-2020 12:01

That's reassuring

mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2491989 26-May-2020 18:01

wellygary:

mattwnz:

The outliers IMO are potentially where the leaks potentially could occur. Once these cases come into NZ, they become local and are counted as NZ's cases. So if people test positive, and then fell a lot better, but they don't really recover, as they aren't tested again to make sure they have recovered according to reports. So if they do still have the virus in their systems, and are still potentially infectious in the community, then they could potentially spread the virus. During Level 4 and 3, this wasn't such an issue, due to the physical distancing. But once we relax down to a more relaxed level 2 or 1, that is when the virus could then take advantage. Whether the virus changes, or has changed, we don't know. It will be interesting to see what happens.

From Bloomfield this morning (26 May) , While they are testing Positive, they are not infectious...

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/417530/contact-tracing-for-groups-of-100-possible-in-two-days-dr-ashley-bloomfield

"He said the two-week quarantine was still the gold standard being used around the world.

"The thing here is that we are finding people that are still testing positive some weeks after their initial symptoms but what seems to becoming clear ... is that they are not actually infectious.""

Except there is still a lot they are learning about the virus, and potentially it could also change and mutate. That statement would be a point in time based on current knowledge. I heard some UK experts several months ago being interviewed on the BBC saying that the virus maybe able to detect if it was being starved of new hosts, and adapt, to still allow it to spread. I am not sure how true that is, as how the virus would know? But I think they were more pro the herd immunity approach.

tdgeek

29749 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2492122 26-May-2020 19:24

Ive not long got home. CNN happens to be on. My goodness NZ is in a different world with this virus. Its like we are in Mars, and its sorted but those still on Earth are ravaged.

1 | ... | 661 | 662 | 663 | 664 | 665 | 666 | 667 | 668 | 669 | 670 | 671 | ... | 2423