2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2494563 29-May-2020 18:35

I think that's the point of the image.

Per capita, with the deaths and infection rates those countries shown have at present, you can see the level of immunity required to get to in the first circle with the very few who are showing antibodies, would be fairly devastating to the population to get there with the current trends

concordnz

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#2494604 29-May-2020 19:37

Rikkitic:

concordnz:

What a crazy thing for us to leave functioning.......
Forcing lots of strangers into a confined space, and not contact tracing capability.

As someone who is vulnerable but able to control my exposure to others, I have made my own Level 2/3/4 rules and have continued to isolate myself. I am in the fortunate position of being able to do this. My intention is to move to everyone else's level 2 at the end of this month, now a couple days away, because I believe community transmission has been successfully eliminated and there has been enough time for any new cases to emerge.

I say this because I do fear this virus and am not being cavalier about it, but I think you are taking it way too far and your current posts on this subject strike me as more paranoid than prudently cautious.

@rikkitic
I dont think im paronoid,
(I try to be a realist though)

there is still a significant risk of a 2nd wave,(depending on how we manage our exposure to countries where it has not been well managed).
- historically 2nd waves have killed and been more damaging, than primary waves of pandemics.

A lot countries haven't peaked on their primary wave yet, so I think things a going to take a lot longer (in the worldwide sense) for things to work through to a 'new normal' than we here in NZ realize.

Relative to the rest of the world - NZ got it under control really fast -
Because of our 'good' experience, I dont think we fully realize how long a 'road' other countries still have to travel, - which is also going to decimate their economies & confidence of their populations a lot further.
'Other countries" is where we get our international tourists from.

Air NZ has made a huge cut in its international flights capacity, and expects it to be 'years' before it returns to anything like Pre-Covid levels -
(If anyone has an accurate idea of the likely reduction in Travel/Tourist numbers is going to be - it should be them right? )

So im inclined to use their estimation of future incoming travelers, and time frames, as a indication of what our future tourist numbers are likely to be.

It is true, I am going to be very relieved, once most countries worldwide are out the other side of their 'second waves'
- because this will mean all those countries have sorted out how to manage this virus,
and the risk of them repeatedly re-exporting it to NZ will then be very small.

Hopefully im wrong, and most countries(us included) avoid a 2nd wave,
and we get a 'new normal' faster - but history would suggest the odds are highly stacked in the favor of a 2nd wave in most countries.

frankv

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#2494642 29-May-2020 20:36

Oblivian:
I think that's the point of the image.

Per capita, with the deaths and infection rates those countries shown have at present, you can see the level of immunity required to get to in the first circle with the very few who are showing antibodies, would be fairly devastating to the population to get there with the current trends

The arithmetic is easy... about 1% of covid-19 infections are fatal. If you need 50% of your population to be infected to become immune to achieve herd immunity, you accept the death of 0.5% of your population (1 in 200) = 25,000 deaths in NZ. Best case.

In addition, 10% of the infections need hospitalisation. Average hospital stay with covid-19 is 8 days (UK). So you need 8*10%*50% * 5M = 2M bed nights in NZ. NZ has about 3 hospital beds per 1000 people, i.e. 15,000 beds total. 2M / 15000 = 133 nights.... every hospital bed in the country occupied for 3 months by nothing but covid-19 cases. Best case, assuming the disease is controlled

But if you run out of hospital beds, those who need hospitalisation will die, and the death rate goes up to 10% of cases (e.g. New York, northern Italy). Potentially 250,000 fatalities in NZ. The whole "flattening the curve" concept is to spread the infections out evenly over at least 133 nights (and realistically over much much more, since the hospital beds are also needed for car accidents and cancer patients and all the rest), to reduce the fatalities to "only" 25,000.

I am just appalled that the mandarins in the UK and Sweden even considered it. Let alone that they thought it was the best option. And went ahead with doing it.

concordnz

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#2494666 29-May-2020 21:05

Thank you Frankv, For detailing the maths, in New Zealand terms,

Nicely clear and crisply laid out,
& I appreciate you explaining the calculations, so we can see how they come about.

It increases my awareness, that NZ has got off incredibly lightly so far.

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#2494676 29-May-2020 21:19

According to worldmeter, Singapore has 33860 cases and 23 deaths

That's 0.07%

(while UK and Italy = 14% death)

Batman

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#2494708 29-May-2020 23:01

Batman:

neb:

If there are any, could they start raising a stink about the total nonfunctionality of the MoH contact-tracing mechanism? It's so broken it's essentially nonexistent. Maybe this is the way to deal with Winnie the Peters, tell him he can have level 1 when the MoH's contact tracing is working properly. It's a win/win, either he'll get it sorted or he'll shut up about level 1.

If crashing the economy is based on hiring 1000 staff ....

we might be right https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12335941

Tinkerisk

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#2494790 30-May-2020 02:41

We got it under control in our city. Most hospitals re-converted to normal operation except specific standby clinics for Covid patients only.

Stats: 1.842 mill. inhabitants/5075 infections total/4700 recovered/123 actual cases at home + 30 actual cases in clinics/222 fatalities.

New infection rate is 4.17/day further descending. It seems people have learned to cope with the virus. Masks and distancing are widely accepted.

Borders about to get re-opened mid of June to neighbour countries in the EU with similar hygienic standards and similar "infection-pressure" (means risk, infection rate, etc.) like our own.

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#2494791 30-May-2020 04:26

Tinkerisk:

We got it under control in our city.

Same here (Western Canada)

City Stats: 1.4 million inhabitants/4830 infections total/4208 recovered/475 outside hospital/43 in hospital/104 (official) fatalities.

The new infection rate jumps around (places like Amazon warehouses and meat-works have had big surges) but is settling around 8-10 per day.

Masks and distancing are accepted and generally required. Bars, restaurants, malls have re-opened with reduced numbers. Public transport is running at about 70% - to be increased soon as some services are getting overcrowded. Kid's playgrounds are re-opened.

People here have also learned to live with the virus. Pretty much everyone's back at work – who still has a job.
Two of the city's main industries - Tourism and Oil - are devastated.

The Province and city have made it clear they won't close down again unless there's a 'massive' surge.
There are large, temporary Hospitals/ICU's built alongside a couple of city hospitals (in the carparks) which are empty right now.

Some domestic flights have restarted.
The US border is still closed to all but essential travel, though there are pushes to re-open it soon.
Both Eastern Canada and the US are still being hit much harder so there's some trepidation about enlarging to that size of bubble. We'll see.

wellygary

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#2494797 30-May-2020 07:37

Batman:
According to worldmeter, Singapore has 33860 cases and 23 deaths

That's 0.07%

(while UK and Italy = 14% death)

Part of that is due to underlying differences in the demographics of the infected populations , Singapore’s main areas of infection are migrant worker dormitories , which are typically young men ...

The UK has a much more “normal” demographic spread

tdgeek

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#2494804 30-May-2020 08:16

One example how to run a business, don't run it week to week, assume some form of disruption and plan for it

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/prosper/121673233/coronavirus-no-sales-at-level-4-but-no-redundancies-says-upbeat-briscoes-boss

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#2494818 30-May-2020 09:16

Briscoes! Wow lol good on them. Boss sounds like a nice down to earth guy.

freitasm

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#2494837 30-May-2020 10:01

Colateral damage: "Trump announces end of US relationship with World Health Organization":

President Donald Trump announced on Friday that the United States will terminate its relationship with the World Health Organization, a move he has threatened throughout the coronavirus pandemic.

"Because they have failed to make the requested and greatly needed reforms, we will be today terminating our relationship with the World Health Organization and redirecting those funds to other worldwide and deserving, urgent global public health needs," Trump said.

The President said that the "world needs answers from China on the virus. We must have transparency."

Earlier in his remarks, Trump said that China had not properly reported information it had about the coronavirus to the World Health Organization and said China had pressured the WHO to "mislead the world."

"Chinese officials ignored their reporting obligations to the World Health Organization and pressured the World Health Organization to mislead the world when the virus was first discovered by Chinese authorities," Trump said. "Countless lives have been taken and profound economic hardship has been inflicted all around the globe."

The WHO has been criticized for relying on official Chinese government figures relating to the virus, numbers which many officials doubt are accurate. It also received criticism for a January 14 tweet noting that preliminary investigation by Chinese authorities had found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus.

Critics have also questioned whether the WHO is independent enough, given China's rising wealth and power. They point to the WHO's effusive praise of China's response to the coronavirus pandemic. Organization officials have defended their early actions when it came to fighting the coronavirus, noting that much was unknown about the virus back in January.

The President has also said that if the WHO had acted appropriately, he could have instituted a travel ban on people coming from China sooner.

But health experts and world leaders have expressed concern over defunding the organization amid a pandemic.

freitasm

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#2494945 30-May-2020 10:49

"Police not prosecuting rescued trampers for lockdown breach"

"The life-long lessons they have learnt will be more than enough – these two will be thinking about [their ordeal] for many years."

They might have learnt about going out unprepared but I doubt they've learnt anything about breaching lockdown and putting other in risk.

They should've been charged.

freitasm

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#2494948 30-May-2020 10:57

"I'm an NHS consultant. We're exhausted – and a second surge is on its way"

Now that the dust has settled and we have time to reflect, what have we learned from the first peak of Covid-19? And how will we cope with another one?

We now understand this illness a lot better than we did. We know what it does to people who are sick enough to need to stay in hospital. For a start, it kills almost 40% of them, more if they are elderly. Many of the survivors suffer horrible lung damage and “storms” of inflammation, often needing weeks on a ventilator.

It makes the blood unusually sticky and causes clots all over the body – particularly in the lungs – and may do so for weeks after even mild infections. It is a cruel disease.

But we have adapted. Protocols have been written, pathways set up within the hospital to try to cohort patients. We now know which parts of the building have the best oxygen flow rates, something I never thought I’d have to consider, and we have become adept at turning patients on to their fronts so they can get more oxygen into their damaged lungs.

However, while we may be more efficient at keeping people alive while the disease takes its natural course, we still do not have any effective and available treatments. Clinical trials are under way, but right now these studies are standing still, waiting for more patients to enrol since infection rates have dropped.

And if any proof were needed of the importance of being guided by the evidence, just look at hydroxychloroquine, which may actually increase the risk of death. So while in many ways we are now better prepared for another peak, we still have no ways to actually treat the disease.

Although I have little faith in the muddled thinking and confused messaging seeping down from the top, my personal guess is that we won’t see as savage a peak again. I certainly hope not.

n addition, people were told to avoid hospitals unless it was absolutely essential. They listened; our non-Covid work during the first peak was a fraction of what it usually is. This was probably the only reason we coped at all.

The problem is that we are already seeing the results of this. Patients are not doctors; they cannot reasonably be expected to reliably self-diagnose what is essential and what isn’t. After two months of neglect their symptoms are becoming intolerable and, unable to seek help through the usual channels, they are coming in later in their disease course than we’d expect and often in a terrible state.

We have had people with undiagnosed cancer arriving only days from death, people with strokes and heart attacks presenting days after their symptoms started. This is reflected in the national figures for excess deaths; you don’t have to catch Covid-19 to die because of it.

Maybe we could get away with all this first time around, but for patients with life-threatening non-Covid disease these effects will be even more horrific after three months of standstill. We urgently need to provide for these people and there is no guarantee they will be able to stay away in the same way during a second peak.

This point brings me to my last key concern: we are exhausted. At the beginning, although there was the fear of the unknown, there was a purity of purpose that united us and drove us on. It was obvious what we needed to do; there were patients in front of us, gaps to plug, new skills to learn; fuelled by adrenaline, we got on with it. In many ways that was the easy bit.

We might have dodged a bullet but the fight is not over yet.

Tinkerisk

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#2495117 30-May-2020 15:15

freitasm: We might have dodged a bullet but the fight is not over yet.

The fight will never be over as long there is no vaccination. But people got much smarter after the 1st wave's immediate personal consequences and definetely fear a 2nd wave.

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