2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2498130 4-Jun-2020 13:01

ockel:
Yes there are risks and benefits for each and every example - as there are for the general structure of deciding on Level criteria and whether there should be easing. And the decisions made (including remaining at Level 2) are to reduce the risk to near zero. But the benefits have only been taken into account on a haphazard inconsistent basis.

Even now the Cabinet papers indicate that we have met the criteria for Level 1. Even the DGH states that the last CT was some time ago and the last case he was concerned about was weeks before that. The data to support is there. The decision needs to be made but for blind ideology and dithering.

IMO a biggie in relation to quarantine is flight attendants and pilots are not required to quarantine.

ockel

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#2498135 4-Jun-2020 13:07

Batman:
ockel:

Yes there are risks and benefits for each and every example - as there are for the general structure of deciding on Level criteria and whether there should be easing. And the decisions made (including remaining at Level 2) are to reduce the risk to near zero. But the benefits have only been taken into account on a haphazard inconsistent basis.

Even now the Cabinet papers indicate that we have met the criteria for Level 1. Even the DGH states that the last CT was some time ago and the last case he was concerned about was weeks before that. The data to support is there. The decision needs to be made but for blind ideology and dithering.

IMO a biggie in relation to quarantine is flight attendants and pilots are not required to quarantine.

My biggie with the border is that only symptomatic travellers are tested. All incoming, including aircrew, should be swabbed at the border - and tested again during the quarantine period. We have the capacity, there is no excuse.

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#2498143 4-Jun-2020 13:31

Most likely coz the WHO says not to do that

empacher48

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#2498145 4-Jun-2020 13:33

My biggie with the border is that only symptomatic travellers are tested. All incoming, including aircrew, should be swabbed at the border - and tested again during the quarantine period. We have the capacity, there is no excuse.

As a short haul pilot who will be flying across the Tasman one day, I would like to know if you think it is reasonable to have a COVID test 5 or 6 days a week?

I wouldn't even have the result of the first test, before the second one was conducted. Even with a 24 hour turn around in the result, I'll be perpetually having tests without results (I'd hate to think what the back of my throat will look like after having these tests every day!).

When I work, my interactions with actual people outside of the flight deck would be less than 5, and 4 of them would be kiwis here in NZ. When we operate across the Tasman, we don't even get off the plane!

If you think I come home after my 12 hour day, which started at 3am, that I'm going to go immediately out to socialise after work, there is a slightly unrealistic idea of what we do when we finish work. (it is usually end up at home and try to get 8 hours sleep before we do the same thing again). Even if I'm at home here in NZ between shifts, I don't usually see my family at all, because... sleep.

I would agree with random testing of NZ based crew, or even targeted testing if you are spending time in high risk areas. But testing us every time we go to work, even if I'm only going to the Cook Islands and back, I would draw the line. We already get treated like terrorists at AVSEC, or drug mules by customs.

wellygary

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#2498150 4-Jun-2020 13:43

ockel:

My biggie with the border is that only symptomatic travellers are tested. All incoming, including aircrew, should be swabbed at the border - and tested again during the quarantine period. We have the capacity, there is no excuse.

From next week all travellers entering NZ will be tested, most likely twice... ( there is still discussion on air and ship crews)

frankv

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#2498156 4-Jun-2020 13:46

ockel:

So schools were glorified childcare centres after all?? And the times when essential workers were operating (level 4) those essential workers didnt have childcare issues but under Level 3 they did. It should have been all children back to school or no children back to school. Merely a risk/benefit tradeoff.

Yes, I agree that it's disgraceful that the government's view of schools is a place to store kids while their parents work.

I'm sure that essential workers had childcare issues under L4. But, at the time, sending the kids to school was worse than not doing it. Under L3, that risk/benefit tipping point had moved.

But just because you want all or nothing, doesn't mean that some kind of hand-and-half solution is wrong.

Even now the Cabinet papers indicate that we have met the criteria for Level 1. Even the DGH states that the last CT was some time ago and the last case he was concerned about was weeks before that. The data to support is there. The decision needs to be made but for blind ideology and dithering.

I don't see ideology or dithering. I don't think any ideology says that meetings have to be held at a particular date & time. I see bureaucracy. The emergency is over, so the normal, creaky, bureaucratic processes are now being followed again. The meeting has been scheduled, the reports are being written for that date, the attendees have that space booked in their calendars, the tea and biscuits have been ordered. Moving the meeting forward would introduce logistical difficulties. (And moving the meeting could be seen as indecisive and pandering to the vocal).

wellygary

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#2498281 4-Jun-2020 14:54

Well we are beginning to see good news out of NSW

"Two new coronavirus cases have been confirmed in New South Wales as of 8pm Wednesday, Premier Gladys Berejiklian has said. She said both of the cases were returned travellers in mandatory hotel quarantine.

"We have gone a full week without community transmission and we want to keep that going as much as we can," she said. Getting to cluster only transmission is a good point on the path.... This weekend will be a big test with large BLM protests/marches planned in major OZ cities.... the numbers in a weeks time will really show what position the states are in ...

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Handle9

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#2498338 4-Jun-2020 15:33

ockel:
Yes there are risks and benefits for each and every example - as there are for the general structure of deciding on Level criteria and whether there should be easing. And the decisions made (including remaining at Level 2) are to reduce the risk to near zero. But the benefits have only been taken into account on a haphazard inconsistent basis.

Even now the Cabinet papers indicate that we have met the criteria for Level 1. Even the DGH states that the last CT was some time ago and the last case he was concerned about was weeks before that. The data to support is there. The decision needs to be made but for blind ideology and dithering.

One cabinet paper states the criteria that you are referencing. If that was updated subsequently that's not blind ideology or dithering. It's adjusting the criteria based on more up to date information.

I'm a unsure what the ideology you are referring to is.

Rikkitic

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#2498348 4-Jun-2020 15:47

empacher48:

As a short haul pilot who will be flying across the Tasman one day, I would like to know if you think it is reasonable to have a COVID test 5 or 6 days a week?

I wouldn't even have the result of the first test, before the second one was conducted. Even with a 24 hour turn around in the result, I'll be perpetually having tests without results (I'd hate to think what the back of my throat will look like after having these tests every day!).

When I work, my interactions with actual people outside of the flight deck would be less than 5, and 4 of them would be kiwis here in NZ. When we operate across the Tasman, we don't even get off the plane!

If you think I come home after my 12 hour day, which started at 3am, that I'm going to go immediately out to socialise after work, there is a slightly unrealistic idea of what we do when we finish work. (it is usually end up at home and try to get 8 hours sleep before we do the same thing again). Even if I'm at home here in NZ between shifts, I don't usually see my family at all, because... sleep.

I would agree with random testing of NZ based crew, or even targeted testing if you are spending time in high risk areas. But testing us every time we go to work, even if I'm only going to the Cook Islands and back, I would draw the line. We already get treated like terrorists at AVSEC, or drug mules by customs.

If you are sleep-deprived and working 12-hour shifts as a commercial pilot, I think that would bother me more than your Covid19 tests.

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mattwnz

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#2498382 4-Jun-2020 16:30

wellygary:

Well we are beginning to see good news out of NSW

"Two new coronavirus cases have been confirmed in New South Wales as of 8pm Wednesday, Premier Gladys Berejiklian has said. She said both of the cases were returned travellers in mandatory hotel quarantine.

"We have gone a full week without community transmission and we want to keep that going as much as we can," she said. Getting to cluster only transmission is a good point on the path.... This weekend will be a big test with large BLM protests/marches planned in major OZ cities.... the numbers in a weeks time will really show what position the states are in ...

NZ potentially got rid of community transmission as soon as we went into level 4, which was essentially needed to starve the undetected virus out here in the community. Just a week without a CT case being detected isn't really much of a sign yet, as that is also only half of a transmission cycle, and there maybe people out there who won't show symptoms or haven't bothered getting tested. There is often a delay is getting sick and then deciding whether or not to get tested, and then the delay i getting tested. With Oz opening up more and more, the R0 value will increase, so any undetected CT still out there will also likely have more paths to spread. In NZ we only lowered the levels when there wasn't any sign of CT occurring. But in Oz they seem to be lowering them anyway. Their aim is suppression and they have already said that they don't see it as realistic that it can be eliminated over there. Although some states do appear to have eliminated it, but once borders open and people can freely travel between states, it can then potentially spread again.

Also I would expect their testing to be now well above NZs on a tests per million rate, based on NZs testing numbers dropping a lot. But their testing numbers are only slightly above NZs So I don't know if they are doing enough testing. Are they testing everyone who has respiratory conditions like NZ is now doing?

I certainly wouldn't be wanting to join a travel bubble with them yet, and their epidemiologists also say that they aren't ready yet, as there is too much risk to NZ.

I can see this travel bubble being the main election issue, but it should come down to a scientific decision from the top medical experts, and not a political one. The people pushing it seem to be businesses that have a financial interest in it being open. NZ has the same problem that the US has, and that is that we are running an election during the early stages of this pandemic, so we risk some bad decisions being made.

I think unless Australia have a proper COVID 19 eliminate policy, like NZ has, and gets their cases down to zero, a travel bubble isn't going to work, or be popular in NZ. I would also doubt Pacific Islands wouldn't want to join a travel bubble with NZ who may have eliminated it, with another country that hasn't. The risk to the pacific islands IMO is too great, just for a bit of coin, and could be false economy, due to the high cost of eliminating it. Eliminating any virus is incredibility expensive, compared to not letting it in in the first place.

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#2498446 4-Jun-2020 18:17

Batman:
complicated article about hydroxychloroquine data, WHO

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/covid-19-surgisphere-who-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquine

With Donald "what do you have to lose" Trump recommending hydroxychloroquine, I suspected there would be a some strange / tragic twist.

freitasm

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#2498481 4-Jun-2020 19:12

New Zealand is not in a unique situation. "Internal documents show CBSA scenarios to decide who gets across the border — and who doesn't"

Internal documents obtained by CBC/Radio-Canada give insight into how Canadian border officials are deciding who to let into the country — and who to turn away — during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Several Canadian families have told CBC News of the heartbreak they have experienced being separated due to restrictions at the Canada-U.S. border.

Among them are a young Canadian woman who has to organize the family's move to another city on her own because her American husband was not allowed to enter Canada; a Canadian man in his 50s who suffers from panic attacks and has been forced to live without the support of his American spouse since March 25; and a pregnant Canadian woman whose American husband was banned from crossing the border.

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#2498484 4-Jun-2020 19:14

freitasm:

New Zealand is not in a unique situation. "Internal documents show CBSA scenarios to decide who gets across the border — and who doesn't"

Most countries that have closed the borders have similar situations. For the people involved it's heart breaking and causing significant harm.

mattwnz

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#2498487 4-Jun-2020 19:17

I can't understand why we are allowing film crews in, but not these other people who need to return. They would all be quarantined for a minimum of 14 days to reduce the risk. It doesn't make any sense.

Fred99

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#2498489 4-Jun-2020 19:22

kingdragonfly:
Batman:

complicated article about hydroxychloroquine data, WHO

Trump recommending hydroxychloroquine

"Sifting through Covid-19 related content is like drinking from a fire hydrant"

(Anthony Fauci)

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