2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2527353 22-Jul-2020 17:34

Fred99:

mattwnz:

You mean there is no 'detected' covid19 in the community yet. But the fact is that sooner or later, there is very likely to be a new case detected in the community, via a hole in our isolation facilities at the border, as happened in Victoria. The thing is we need to detect those cases as soon as they occur. If we aren't doing much community testing (only 8 community tests in one day points to hardly any community testing being done), then we leave ourselves open to becoming another Victoria if we give it time to spread. Concentrating testing around workers in hotels and airports etc, and families of those, are one area that testing could be done. As well as getting people who have symptoms.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/421744/isolation-facilities-we-are-now-close-to-exhausting-our-nationwide-capacity-megan-woods

Yep - they do need to ramp up community testing.

Aus/Victoria has a hell of a problem on their hands. I'd hoped they'd have started to see a decline in new CT cases by now - but looks like it's getting worse.

Yeap more than 480 new cases today alone. Listening to Tony Blakely an Epidemiologist in Oz on RNZ, he said that Victorians had been their own worst enemy, by going to work when they weren't feeling well. Likewise not self isolating when waiting for their test resulta. He is advocating for elimination and a hard lockdown, but that isn't the current official position and doesn't appear to be what Australia are going to do. So the other reason for a hard lockdown is if the health services are under threat of being overwhelmed, but they are short of that as they would need 2.5k cases per day to get to that level. So they are not going for a hard lockdown, but a 'smarter' lockdown. So they are only at a lockdown level 3, and shifting towards a level 4, but they are trying to protect the economy at the same time, so places like shoeshops and bunnings are still open. But IMO long term this is not going to work for their economy, if they have to keep implementing these lockdowns to 'suppress' the outbreaks, and then also rely on physical distancing while it is still in the community.

He can't understand why people in Oz are just going about their normal business while waiting for test results, and aren't taking this seriously. He says there is much more traffic than there was in the first stage 3 lockdown, which shows complacency, and people thinking they are essential workers. So that could be why it isn't turning around as fast as it should be. But mask wearing is going to be compulsory from tomorrow and he hopes that will turn things around. There is a $200 spot fine for not wearing a mask.

kingdragonfly

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#2527356 22-Jul-2020 17:41

New York Times: New Zealand Inflation Retreats in Second-Quarter, Outlook Subdued

New Zealand consumer prices fell by the most in four years last quarter as much of the economy closed to fight the coronavirus, while a collapse in global oil prices dragged petrol costs down sharply.

The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.5% from the first quarter, when it had climbed 0.8%. That was bang in line with market forecasts and left the local dollar untroubled.

Thursday's data came with a statistical health warning as goods and services simply could not be bought in April and May, so prices for them had to be estimated.

"The COVID-19 pandemic has created a lot of volatility and uncertainty," said Aaron Beck, prices senior manager for Statistics New Zealand.

"These have resulted in some large price fluctuations as well as several measurement challenges."

Some services were offered for free, including public transport, while hotel prices dived amid widespread closures.

The annual pace of CPI growth braked to 1.5%, from an eight-year high of 2.5%. That was a setback for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) which has spent almost a decade trying to get inflation above the middle of its 1%-3% target band.

The central bank has already responded to the pandemic by slashing interest rates to a record low of 0.25% and launching a massive NZ$60 billion ($39 billion) bond-buying campaign.

Growth has clearly rebounded in the last month as the country all but eliminated the virus allowing a re-opening of the economy. But with unemployment set to rise and wages subdued, the outlook is a muted one.

"We think that weak demand will trump supply-side disruptions over the medium term, leading to lower inflation pressures, and the economy is likely to remain below full employment for years to come," said Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon.

kingdragonfly

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#2527361 22-Jul-2020 17:51

Washington Post: Asia Today: Australian virus hot spot adds hospital beds

Australia’s coronavirus hot spot, Victoria state, moved to increase available hospital beds Thursday and reported a record 317 new infections.

The government had planned to restore hospitals to normal medical services by the end of July before infections began to rise in recent weeks.

Instead, the Victoria government responded to the latest spike by reducing non-urgent surgeries allowed in hospitals to increase beds available for COVID-19 patients, Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said.

Two men in their 80s died in Victoria in the last 24 hours, bringing the national virus death toll to 113.

Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews said the full impact of a six-week lockdown in Australia’s second-largest city, Melbourne, was not yet apparent because it was only a week old.
...
Australia enjoyed similar success as neighboring New Zealand in suppressing the spread of COVID-19 in the early weeks of the pandemic. Australia adopted a suppression strategy while New Zealand pursued full eradication.

The strategy has succeeded in New Zealand, which has gone 76 days without a community-spread infection and has active cases only among quarantined people who traveled abroad.

Just as Australia was lifting its lockdown restrictions, breaches of infection controls in hotel quarantine led to community spread in Victoria state.

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#2527363 22-Jul-2020 17:59

Yeap more than 480 new cases today alone. Listening to Tony Blakely an Epidemiologist in Oz on RNZ, he said that Victorians had been their own worst enemy, by going to work when they weren't feeling well.

This sounds like a lack of messaging and support from employers. NZ seems to have been relatively good in this regard with some notable problems.

Fred99

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#2527365 22-Jul-2020 18:13

gzt:
Yeap more than 480 new cases today alone. Listening to Tony Blakely an Epidemiologist in Oz on RNZ, he said that Victorians had been their own worst enemy, by going to work when they weren't feeling well.

This sounds like a lack of messaging and support from employers. NZ seems to have been relatively good in this regard with some notable problems.

I'd guess also that there would be a hell of a lot of people on casual contracts or so-called "self employed" who wouldn't have any sick-leave entitlements.

kingdragonfly

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#2527472 22-Jul-2020 21:06

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Geektastic

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#2527475 22-Jul-2020 21:16

mattwnz:

Yeap more than 480 new cases today alone. Listening to Tony Blakely an Epidemiologist in Oz on RNZ, he said that Victorians had been their own worst enemy, by going to work when they weren't feeling well.

Surely going to work when people do not feel well is the end result of the idea of restricted sick leave?

Most European countries have a system broadly along the lines that if you are ill for 5 days or less, you can self certify. If your absence goes over 5 days then you need a Doctor's Certificate. With a Doctor's Certificate, most white collar contracts of employment would allow up to 3 months on full pay, some up to 6.

It is the job of staff managers to manage anyone swinging the lead and the contracts permit the employer to seek (at their expense) a second opinion if they disagree with the Certificate that an employee has provided. The system seems to work well and whilst there are of course some malingerers, they are usually found out in the end and dismissed.

If you tell people that they can only have 10 days off paid sick leave, then quite predictably you will get people coming back to work on day 11 or not going off at all if they have no days left. It is self-perpetuating that they will pass illness around the office if they have no choice other than to be there or fail to pay the rent etc.

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#2527477 22-Jul-2020 21:24

Geektastic:

mattwnz:

Yeap more than 480 new cases today alone. Listening to Tony Blakely an Epidemiologist in Oz on RNZ, he said that Victorians had been their own worst enemy, by going to work when they weren't feeling well.

Surely going to work when people do not feel well is the end result of the idea of restricted sick leave?

Most European countries have a system broadly along the lines that if you are ill for 5 days or less, you can self certify. If your absence goes over 5 days then you need a Doctor's Certificate. With a Doctor's Certificate, most white collar contracts of employment would allow up to 3 months on full pay, some up to 6.

It is the job of staff managers to manage anyone swinging the lead and the contracts permit the employer to seek (at their expense) a second opinion if they disagree with the Certificate that an employee has provided. The system seems to work well and whilst there are of course some malingerers, they are usually found out in the end and dismissed.

If you tell people that they can only have 10 days off paid sick leave, then quite predictably you will get people coming back to work on day 11 or not going off at all if they have no days left. It is self-perpetuating that they will pass illness around the office if they have no choice other than to be there or fail to pay the rent etc.

in AU if you call in sick you either

- make a statutory declaration (you are allowed to do this 2x a year)

- get a medical certificate

no ifs or buts

Geektastic

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#2527480 22-Jul-2020 21:34

Batman:

[

in AU if you call in sick you either

- make a statutory declaration (you are allowed to do this 2x a year)

- get a medical certificate

no ifs or buts

However, is there a limit to how long you get paid? For example, if the doc signs you off three times in a year and the total is 40 days, do you get 40 days pay?

Batman

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#2527481 22-Jul-2020 21:36

Geektastic:

Batman:

[

in AU if you call in sick you either

- make a statutory declaration (you are allowed to do this 2x a year)

- get a medical certificate

no ifs or buts

However, is there a limit to how long you get paid? For example, if the doc signs you off three times in a year and the total is 40 days, do you get 40 days pay?

yes there's a limit. depends on the contract i guess. not sure of the legal minimum.

mattwnz

20141 posts

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#2527515 22-Jul-2020 23:53

Geektastic:

mattwnz:

Yeap more than 480 new cases today alone. Listening to Tony Blakely an Epidemiologist in Oz on RNZ, he said that Victorians had been their own worst enemy, by going to work when they weren't feeling well.

Surely going to work when people do not feel well is the end result of the idea of restricted sick leave?

Most European countries have a system broadly along the lines that if you are ill for 5 days or less, you can self certify. If your absence goes over 5 days then you need a Doctor's Certificate. With a Doctor's Certificate, most white collar contracts of employment would allow up to 3 months on full pay, some up to 6.

It is the job of staff managers to manage anyone swinging the lead and the contracts permit the employer to seek (at their expense) a second opinion if they disagree with the Certificate that an employee has provided. The system seems to work well and whilst there are of course some malingerers, they are usually found out in the end and dismissed.

If you tell people that they can only have 10 days off paid sick leave, then quite predictably you will get people coming back to work on day 11 or not going off at all if they have no days left. It is self-perpetuating that they will pass illness around the office if they have no choice other than to be there or fail to pay the rent etc.

I understand one problem is NZ that could be one reason that people are refusing to get tested, is that people aren't supposed to go back to work between the period they get the test, and then get the result of the test. At least the seems to be rule in Australia, and apparently is one cause of this spread. I am not sure if the same requirement applies here in NZ. If that is the case in NZ too, then something needs to be done about that. Maybe better monitoring of peoples health in workplaces, so if anyone has any signs of a cold or flu, they must only work from home. But that is impossible to police, and some businesses won't do it. But that could be an Achilles heel , especially in low wage jobs.

We also have to remember that NZ operates in similar ways to Australia, including the way we work, our shops and businesses, hotels etc. So it is very important that our ministry of health is reviewing everything that is happening over there, and learns from their mistakes.

kingdragonfly

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#2527568 23-Jul-2020 08:41

I guess the same reason some women don't get pregnancy tests. Just ignore it and hope it goes away.

PolicyGuy

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#2527571 23-Jul-2020 08:54

Geektastic:

Surely going to work when people do not feel well is the end result of the idea of restricted sick leave?

{snip}

If you tell people that they can only have 10 days off paid sick leave,

The statutory entitlement in NZ is only five days sick leave for each year of completed service**.

Public service employees, and some private sector employees, enjoy ten days.
A very few organisations operate with 'unlimited sick leave' regimes - I only know of one

** See Holidays Act S65 http://legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2003/0129/latest/DLM237161.html

Oblivian

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#2527575 23-Jul-2020 09:14

I can verify, when tested here you are given 2x information sheets. And verbally advised.

Do NOT go to work or leave self isolation, until 48Hrs AFTER your negative result is in, OR after you are symptomatic free following the result. Whichever is longer

It even tells you in the result if you bother to click it

wellygary

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#2527576 23-Jul-2020 09:22

Fred99:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/421744/isolation-facilities-we-are-now-close-to-exhausting-our-nationwide-capacity-megan-woods

This has been badly reported by the media, "close to exhausting our capacity" gives the inference that nearly all the rooms are full, but in truth they more than half are empty....

Effective Capacity :6698

Occupancy: 2946

Vacancy: 3752

https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/resources/miq-data/miq-daily-update-2020-07-22.pdf

What the Govt tried to say, and the media are misreporting, is that they have identified all the potential hotels throughout the country that can be used for isolation.. Not that the hotels are full to capacity.... ( The airlines paused bookings weeks ago, because it was almost getting to that)

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