Car boom looks like last hurrah for petrol power: Electric vehicles look set to take over?

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#1831658 26-Jul-2017 14:53

BruceHamilton:

I suspect people will adopt EVs in NZ far faster than expected. EVs will be purchased when they offer superior value for money to conventional ICE vehicles. As global manufacturers switch to EVs, the upfront cost to NZers will decrease. The most obvious stumbling blocks are range anxiety and recharging times - both battery issues. Tesla's solution ( superchargers next to food/shops ) probably won't work here, except for long distance trips.

However, early in the 20th century, EVs dominated American city vehicles. Apart from batteries, they had long vehicle lives and were non-smelly and clean, easy to start, and drive. That's where EVs will dominate first in NZ as well. To most people quick travelling in cities and reduced depreciation would be major benefits, but businesses are unlikely to consider depreciation as a purchasing factor. If authorities want to train citizens they can implement measures, eg EV only parking spaces, reduced parking fees ( unlikely, revenue is the 21st Century Laudanum for elected officials ), EV-only lanes, increased taxation on petrol and diesel, etc.

Officials can also help drive consumers to more appropriate vehicle size/mass by implementing shorter parking spaces ( especially near corners ), relating registration fees to vehicle/mass, removing heavy vehicles without anti-intrusion skirts from city roads at peak timea. Occupants of smaller vehicles are instant puree when trying to piggy-back a vehicle several times their mass. Many occupants of small vehicles don't like being adjacent to large wheels on big vehicles, even if travelling in same direction. Autonomous vehicles will liberate occupants to perform other tasks, provided they feel comfortable and safe travelling on the road. Smaller, lighter vehicles, whether ICE, Fuel-Cell, or EV, can greatly reduce national consumption of hydrocarbon road fuels.

The battery issues are being rapidly confronted, as is vehicle design, more rapid recharging, and autonomous driving. The economic incentives for localised autonomous vehicles, such as commuter cars returning home for other tasks ( school, sports, etc.) are obvious ( hence the current huge investment ), and ownership can be also be shared to reduce up-frobnt and operational costs. Robotics/machine vision will easily address EV recharging issues. Once the battery technology is improved, EVs will be the daily runabout, and large family cars will be relegated to long distance trips.

Once upon a time, every NZ suburb had several service-stations selling different brand ICE fuels and performing vehicle repairs and owners took 10-15 minutes to refuel their vehicle and check essential fluids and tyre pressures, as well as chat to the attendant. People are more time poor, as evidenced by the ever-increasing flowrates of ICE fuels at service-stations. If EVs can deliver faster, cost-effective commutes, and higher availability vehicle for a family, they will replace urban ICE vehicles fairly rapidly. It's likely locally-autonomous vehicles will be very attractive for many people.

That all makes sense to me.

I tend to be an early adopter of many things. I do that partly out of curiosity. I want to 'step through the looking glass' and test my own presumptions and preconceptions against the reality of actual experience.

My first EV was a 2015 Nissan LEAF with a 24kWh battery. I did some serious driving northward and eastward out of Auckland in it. I didn't so much have "range anxiety" as I was aware it could go some places quickly....and other places more slowly....mainly due to the charging infrastructure available at the time.

In the past year the charging network has basically exploded....and getting where I need to go isn't really an issue. I drove my second EV from Auckland to Bluff in early April '17, then back up to Cape Reinga and then back to Auckland. I had to stay the night to charge up in two places: Murchison (to get to Christchurch from Nelson) and Waitaki Landing near the Cape (to be able to return to Kiataia), but otherwise my own fatigue was the limiting factor on more driving for the day.

I regularly drive Auckland to Opotiki in a few hours....and the same on return. No issues.

"Flip the Fleet" have surveyed over 200 EV owners and they found that "range anxiety" is more or less a newbie thing.....and once people get used to their car - whatever it is - they plan their trips just as they would with a petrol-powered car. You know what your car can do and you arrange your trip so it can do it. No anxiety required.

That sounds about right. The people who have range anxiety haven't spent a week or three driving an EV around...and the people who have done it have made the mental shift and they just get on with life like anyone else.....except they also enjoy a smoother, quieter ride and much lower running costs (both power and servicing) than a normal car.....and no emissions.

_____________________________________________________________________

I've been on Geekzone over 16 years..... Time flies....

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#1831855 26-Jul-2017 21:15

BruceHamilton:

To most people quick travelling in cities and reduced depreciation would be major benefits, but businesses are unlikely to consider depreciation as a purchasing factor.

I don't think that depreciation will be less in EVs. Whilst a motor will last longer than an IC engine, there are lots of other things (e.g. rubber door seals, suspension, upholstery, paint) that will wear out or deteriorate over time. You'll be left with a tatty, leaky, faded old car with a great motor. Not so different from IC cars; in the good old days, 100,000 miles was about the expected life of an engine, nowadays its maybe twice that. But people still change cars every 3-5 years; its a status symbol.

And depreciation will be especially bad for early adopters; if (as expected) EV technology improves rapidly, current EVs won't be worth very much in 5 years. (Sorry, @LinuxLuver).

jpoc

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#1831915 27-Jul-2017 00:50

tdgeek:

It will be a slow transition, bell curve as stated. I read a lot here that petrolheads will be the last bastion. There are many reasons why its good to have a car. Not uncommon for me to zip down to BP as milk or bread is low early birds in the morning. Need to pop to the other place to get my hedge trimmer I forgot to bring back last time. Guy at work today, his kid missed the private school bus, he drove him. Many many many day to day reasons. Im not ringing Uber and waiting for a car to arrive.

<snip>

You really have not thought this through have you.

First off, good luck finding a local BP after petrol sales are 95% down and almost all of the petrol stations have closed.

Of course, there will still be dairies and you could get in a car that you actually own and drive off there. Me, I'll not do that. I will just pick up my phone - there is going to be an app for this. I will tell the app that I need a loaf of bread and wait. The man in the dairy will get a message to pick up a loaf and drop it in the car outside the front of his shop. He will do that, right away - top priority - because this app will be at least one third of his turnover. The car will drop the loaf at my door while you are still looking for a car park near the dairy. You are welcome to that lifestyle choice.

[SIDEBAR: For the emergency loaf of bread, I expect that I'll just order up a fresh loaf from Amazon and have a drone drop it off. Amazon will have multiple fulfillment centers in NZ within the next five years and they will do that. Way faster and cheaper than making my own way to a shop.]

I guess that you have never used Uber. You do not ring them, you just fire up an app and as for waiting. Well, you really have not thought this through. Right now, there are about 200 cars parked up in my street. Most are off street but the rest are on the street. They all spend almost the whole day sat there doing nothing or sat somewhere else being equally useless. Five to ten years from now, there will be no privately owned road cars on the street. There will just be Ubers and Lyfts. The street will not need anything like 200 hundred cars, most likely a couple of dozen will take car of things - coming and going as people make trips. The key thing is that there will always be a few around so that nobody has to wait for a car. It is all different when there are no drivers involved.

As for your mate at work, do you not realize that in the Transport as a Service future, there will not be private school buses. There will just be Ubers and Lyfts. For a school run, the kids will be sharing rides in cars that are just going to school. You will not be able to miss the bus because there will be another Uber along in less than a minute.

Driverless electric vehicles offering Transport as a Service are going to change everything. Try to make an effort to see how and you will be able to take advantage of the changes.

Sidestep

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#1831943 27-Jul-2017 08:01

I think you're talking different timelines here.
And I reckon there'll be surges and stops, speed bumps and dead ends either way.

The UK's ceasing sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 2040 is do-able, but there'll still be heavy commercial and industrial machinery running on diesel for a long time, and the legacy fleet of petrol & diesel vehicles will still need to fuel up somewhere.
Also note they've left the door open to hybrid vehicles. There'll be a wind-down of the ICE fleet that'll take a long time – into the 2050's by their timeline - if all goes smoothly and steady improvements in infrastructure and systems they're banking on goes ahead.

And by smoothly I mean no sudden shortage in the supply of Rare Earths, no Lithium production hiccups, no African civil war cutting off half the world's Cobalt supply..
and no worldwide financial crisis that has us all pushing wheelbarrows of money down the road to buy our loaf of bread.

On the positive side there may be some massive battery tech breakthrough, a new catalyst that allows low energy hydrogen electrolysis, an increase in the price of fossil fuels that's just enough to accelerate alternative fuels without sending the world into recession.

smalltrader

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#1831993 27-Jul-2017 08:13

Dream on. Transport as a Service ...

You just look at Singapore. It already has more or less "Transport as a Service" and arguably the best transport infrastructure in the world. You could go anywhere in Singapore using the MRT (Mass Rapid Transit) system for a dollar or two (cheap as chips). And Taxi in Singapore is so cheap that it is not funny and taxi is everywhere on the street day and night, one will zoom past every minute or two.

The Singapore government deliberately tax car ownership to the max. The tax on a car could easily be more than the price of the car itself AND you have to apply for permit to own a car. Only so many permits are allowed per year. AND you have to pay a congestion tax to enter the CBD.

Guest what happens to car sales in Singapore. It is increasing year on year. People are queueing up to apply for car ownership permit despite car costing 2 - 3 times as much in NZ. Like I have said, for a good portion of people, car ownership is like house ownership. As a service works for some people but not others.

Random thought. Everyone including all the leading industry analysts such as Garters and Forrester predicted the demise of printers 20 years with the birth of the Internet and the digital media. Guest what happens to printer sales today? Printers sale remain a solid revenue stream for HP, Canon, Brothers ..etc.

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#1831994 27-Jul-2017 08:15

That's not true. More than Half the island you cannot access on MRT. Serviced by bus.

frankv

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#1832002 27-Jul-2017 08:35

Sidestep:

On the positive side there may be ... a new catalyst that allows low energy hydrogen electrolysis...

The rest is good, but this is not going to happen.

Thermodynamics says you get less energy out of converting hydrogen and oxygen to water than you put in to convert water into hydrogen and oxygen. An improved catalyst will reduce the difference, but you'll still need to get the energy to do the electrolysis from somewhere. If you want 100kWh out, you'll need to put 100kWh in. In which case, you might as well just put your 100kWh directly to the wheels and avoid the losses of electrolysis and the Karnaugh cycle.

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tdgeek

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#1832004 27-Jul-2017 08:38

smalltrader:

Dream on. Transport as a Service ...

You just look at Singapore. It already has more or less "Transport as a Service" and arguably the best transport infrastructure in the world. You could go anywhere in Singapore using the MRT (Mass Rapid Transit) system for a dollar or two (cheap as chips). And Taxi in Singapore is so cheap that it is not funny and taxi is everywhere on the street day and night, one will zoom past every minute or two.

The Singapore government deliberately tax car ownership to the max. The tax on a car could easily be more than the price of the car itself AND you have to apply for permit to own a car. Only so many permits are allowed per year. AND you have to pay a congestion tax to enter the CBD.

Guest what happens to car sales in Singapore. It is increasing year on year. People are queueing up to apply for car ownership permit despite car costing 2 - 3 times as much in NZ. Like I have said, for a good portion of people, car ownership is like house ownership. As a service works for some people but not others.

Random thought. Everyone including all the leading industry analysts such as Garters and Forrester predicted the demise of printers 20 years with the birth of the Internet and the digital media. Guest what happens to printer sales today? Printers sale remain a solid revenue stream for HP, Canon, Brothers ..etc.

NZ differs wildy from Singapore. Same population, but NZ is 34 times larger, and its not one city and no rural. A small city state is ideal for public transport to be to go to means of getting around, not here

frednz

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#1832040 27-Jul-2017 09:36

Linuxluver:

"Flip the Fleet" have surveyed over 200 EV owners and they found that "range anxiety" is more or less a newbie thing.....and once people get used to their car - whatever it is - they plan their trips just as they would with a petrol-powered car. You know what your car can do and you arrange your trip so it can do it. No anxiety required.

That sounds about right. The people who have range anxiety haven't spent a week or three driving an EV around...and the people who have done it have made the mental shift and they just get on with life like anyone else.....except they also enjoy a smoother, quieter ride and much lower running costs (both power and servicing) than a normal car.....and no emissions.

The poll done by "Flip the Fleet" found 72 percent of drivers experience none or only very occasional so-called "range anxiety." A quarter of drivers are anxious about running their battery flat, and 7 percent feel this quite intensely, at least at first. Risk of being stranded increases in winter when range drops due to the cold, and when driving outside urban areas....

So the fact that a quarter of drivers are anxious about running their battery flat is quite a lot really! Range anxiety is the whole reason why BMW have a small petrol engine range extender option for their i3 car! And I'm guessing that more people buy the range extender model than the pure electric model!

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#1832070 27-Jul-2017 09:44

frednz:

Linuxluver:

"Flip the Fleet" have surveyed over 200 EV owners and they found that "range anxiety" is more or less a newbie thing.....and once people get used to their car - whatever it is - they plan their trips just as they would with a petrol-powered car. You know what your car can do and you arrange your trip so it can do it. No anxiety required.

That sounds about right. The people who have range anxiety haven't spent a week or three driving an EV around...and the people who have done it have made the mental shift and they just get on with life like anyone else.....except they also enjoy a smoother, quieter ride and much lower running costs (both power and servicing) than a normal car.....and no emissions.

The poll done by "Flip the Fleet" found 72 percent of drivers experience none or only very occasional so-called "range anxiety." A quarter of drivers are anxious about running their battery flat, and 7 percent feel this quite intensely, at least at first. Risk of being stranded increases in winter when range drops due to the cold, and when driving outside urban areas....

So the fact that a quarter of drivers are anxious about running their battery flat is quite a lot really! Range anxiety is the whole reason why BMW have a range extender option for their i3 car! And I'm guessing that more people buy the range extender model than the pure electric model!

Id say the reliability of EV engine over ICE is substantial? Far less moving parts. Thats probably more risk than EV centric risks?

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#1832078 27-Jul-2017 10:02

frankv:

Sidestep:

On the positive side there may be ... a new catalyst that allows low energy hydrogen electrolysis...

The rest is good, but this is not going to happen.

Thermodynamics says you get less energy out of converting hydrogen and oxygen to water than you put in to convert water into hydrogen and oxygen. An improved catalyst will reduce the difference, but you'll still need to get the energy to do the electrolysis from somewhere. If you want 100kWh out, you'll need to put 100kWh in. In which case, you might as well just put your 100kWh directly to the wheels and avoid the losses of electrolysis and the Karnaugh cycle.

Thermodynamics also says you get less energy out of a battery than you use to charge it ...

It's really about how you source the energy, the efficiency with which it can be used and the relative cost/impact of doing so.

In your example to get the '100kWh directly the the wheels' ...

Firstly that's impossible with current (?any?) technology. Even a battery, motor and cable waste some of the energy. Secondly one needs a heavy battery which the vehicle must propel and that uses a lot of energy.

ICEVs have the opposite problem: Low mass energy, high conversion losses. Unfortunately that advantage comes for highly polluting fuel.

There is no perfect (or even very good) technology for an car.

Setting aside the technologies for generating motion, car designs are still inefficient due to aerodynamic drag and traction losses.

Mike

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#1832102 27-Jul-2017 10:56

frankv:

Sidestep:

On the positive side there may be ... a new catalyst that allows low energy hydrogen electrolysis...

The rest is good, but this is not going to happen.

Thermodynamics says you get less energy out of converting hydrogen and oxygen to water than you put in to convert water into hydrogen and oxygen. An improved catalyst will reduce the difference, but you'll still need to get the energy to do the electrolysis from somewhere. If you want 100kWh out, you'll need to put 100kWh in. In which case, you might as well just put your 100kWh directly to the wheels and avoid the losses of electrolysis and the Karnaugh cycle.

Whether stored in a tank of petrol or hydrogen, a train full of rocks towed up a mountain, or a charged lithium battery, every system we're looking at (except geothermal) involves some way of using the sun's energy to make our wheels go round.

Energy leaks out everywhere. The more efficient - and less polluting - the path it takes, the better.

frankv

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#1832282 27-Jul-2017 14:38

MikeAqua:

frankv:

Sidestep:

On the positive side there may be ... a new catalyst that allows low energy hydrogen electrolysis...

The rest is good, but this is not going to happen.

Thermodynamics says you get less energy out of converting hydrogen and oxygen to water than you put in to convert water into hydrogen and oxygen. An improved catalyst will reduce the difference, but you'll still need to get the energy to do the electrolysis from somewhere. If you want 100kWh out, you'll need to put 100kWh in. In which case, you might as well just put your 100kWh directly to the wheels and avoid the losses of electrolysis and the Karnaugh cycle.

Thermodynamics also says you get less energy out of a battery than you use to charge it ...

It's really about how you source the energy, the efficiency with which it can be used and the relative cost/impact of doing so.

In your example to get the '100kWh directly the the wheels' ...

Firstly that's impossible with current (?any?) technology. Even a battery, motor and cable waste some of the energy. Secondly one needs a heavy battery which the vehicle must propel and that uses a lot of energy.

ICEVs have the opposite problem: Low mass energy, high conversion losses. Unfortunately that advantage comes for highly polluting fuel.

Sorry, my imprecise wording.

I think there's some people who misunderstand catalysts, and believe that they reduce the amount of energy needed to make a chemical reaction happen. So they believe that, with some catalyst, you might get (e.g) 20kJ of hydrogen/oxygen energy out of electrolysis for only 15kJ of electricity input. In reality, catalysts lower the activation energy which makes the reaction go faster, but they don't change the amount of energy consumed/released by the reaction. In electrloysis of 1mol (18g) of water, about 286kJ of energy is consumed

So, what I was trying to compare was

a) Using electricity from a car battery, converting that to kinetic engine via an electric motor.

b) Using electricity from a car battery, but using that to electrolyse water to hydrogen & oxygen, then using some process (an ICE and gearbox, or a fuel cell) to convert the hydrogen to (eventually) kinetic energy.

I can't imagine any electrolysis-to-hydrogen-to-kinetic-energy process that will ever approach the efficiency of option a).

frankv

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#1832283 27-Jul-2017 14:38

MikeAqua:

frankv:

Sidestep:

On the positive side there may be ... a new catalyst that allows low energy hydrogen electrolysis...

The rest is good, but this is not going to happen.

Thermodynamics says you get less energy out of converting hydrogen and oxygen to water than you put in to convert water into hydrogen and oxygen. An improved catalyst will reduce the difference, but you'll still need to get the energy to do the electrolysis from somewhere. If you want 100kWh out, you'll need to put 100kWh in. In which case, you might as well just put your 100kWh directly to the wheels and avoid the losses of electrolysis and the Karnaugh cycle.

Thermodynamics also says you get less energy out of a battery than you use to charge it ...

It's really about how you source the energy, the efficiency with which it can be used and the relative cost/impact of doing so.

In your example to get the '100kWh directly the the wheels' ...

Firstly that's impossible with current (?any?) technology. Even a battery, motor and cable waste some of the energy. Secondly one needs a heavy battery which the vehicle must propel and that uses a lot of energy.

ICEVs have the opposite problem: Low mass energy, high conversion losses. Unfortunately that advantage comes for highly polluting fuel.

Sorry, my imprecise wording.

So, what I was trying to compare was

a) Using electricity from a car battery, converting that to kinetic engine via an electric motor.

I can't imagine any electrolysis-to-hydrogen-to-kinetic-energy process that will ever approach the efficiency of option a).

shk292

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#1832413 27-Jul-2017 17:32

I've often thought about catalytic conversion of waste energy to hydrolyse water - it would be great technology if it could be made to work. I'm not talking about getting something for nothing, but if you could use some of the massive amount of heat that is extracted from buildings and machinery in the form of cooling and a/c, to perform hydrolysis with a catalyst - that would be as good as free energy.

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