EV (electric vehicle) News & Discussion

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#2692170 13-Apr-2021 17:13

frankv:

I don't think there's any particular timebase, and often a lot less than a generation e.g. the Internet. Remember that EVs have been around for longer than ICEVs.

Technology S-curve: The trick is to identify when the curve crosses the profit/loss line. Elon Musk seems to have done this spectacularly well with Tesla. And probably SpaceX. Conversely, ICEVs are very much in the maturity phase at the top of their curve, where a lot of time & investment gives very little gain. As EVs improve, ICEVs will go into descent.

You can also graph technology level vs investment which gives a Sigmoid curve - initially you don't get much improvement for a lot of investment (R&D phase), then you get lots of improvement for little investment (ascent), then you're back to not much improvement for a lot of investment (maturity). If a product depends on several technologies, then the quality of the car will change depending on the underlying technologies. So, for a car, it might be metallurgy, machining, production lines, oil refining, rubber, plastics, electronics, computers, and now batteries.

I'm primarily talking about human behaviour and the adoption of technologies rather than the technologies themselves. Although I am familiar with theories of technology adoption, I've noticed that human behaviour is often ignored. So this rule of thumb is a gross generalisation but nonetheless a useful predictor for life-changing technology adoption.

Major shifts in our behaviour do seem to take a long time. Technological advances can progress much more quickly but supply chains can take a long time to build up, investors have to catch a vision, and we seem to take a relatively long time to adopt new technologies before most of us will use them, or can afford to use them, ourselves. Of course, we can argue about where the modern technological solution starts the process, or when we're satisfied that the technology has become commonly used by the majority of us:

Xerox: Xerography patent 1942; Xerox commercialised 1959 and automated 1962; widespread in the 1970s; home printers 1990s.
Fax: Western Union desk fax 1940s; Xerox commercialise 1960s; computer boards 1980s; home printers 1990s.
Mobile phones: handheld mobile phone 1973; automatic cellular system 1979; more than 50% of people have a mobile phone in ~2009.

Technically, the Internet did take a generation to catch on in the manner I described. But maybe the start should be the invention of the personal computer in the mid 1970s. The Internet started in the mid-1960s with an extremely limited user base. It was only widely extended internationally, even to NZ, in the mid-1980s when the economic proposition changed due to new electronics (including widespread use of PCs) and the development in 1989 of the World Wide Web. Then by some time in the mid-2000s, more than 50% of people in the world were using it.

mattwnz

20164 posts

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#2692178 13-Apr-2021 17:23

tripper1000:

mattwnz: ...So it is likely these subsidies will be going to more wealthy people who can afford to pay extra anyway....

This will happen with almost any kind of environmental incentive because Environmentalism is a luxury that mainly only the rich can afford. This is why poor countries tend to have the worst pollution and why left leaning greens struggle balancing contradictory policy.

You need to look at the long game: the rich are buying cars and eating the depreciation to "create" affordable cars for the poor. If you encourage the rich to buy environmental cars, they are still eating a lot of depreciation to create affordable cars for the poor, but the poor now have environmental choices. Yes, it may take 5 or 10 years, for the trickle down to be seen, but it will happen and looking after people and the planet is a long game.

Yes I agree with that. But can NZ afford to subsidize more well off people, especially as we are printing all this money and paying billions to house people due to the housing crisis. Subsidies could also allow dealers and importers to keep their prices high, or less willing to give other discounts, because people will already be getting a taxpayer subsidy. It still doesn't seem to be stopping people buying EVs in NZ, as I think demand is outstripping supply at the moment as there is a waiting list for a lot of new cars. Also there aren't yet the models of EVs that many people want, at the right price point, which will occur eventually. That is where the subsidy is needed, but I don't think it would apply to some of what would be considered 'Luxury cars'. Also if you want to tow, the EV options are limited at the more affordable level.

HarmLessSolutions

974 posts

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#2692196 13-Apr-2021 17:50

mattwnz:

..... Also if you want to tow, the EV options are limited at the more affordable level.

To the contrary:

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

DS248

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#2692199 13-Apr-2021 18:02

mattwnz:

... Subsidies could also allow dealers and importers to keep their prices high, or less willing to give other discounts, because people will already be getting a taxpayer subsidy. ...

There is a way to reduce that type of behaviour. Benchmark against international prices and reduce the subsidy price cap if need be. Several manufacturers quickly cut prices in the UK to retain eligibility for the grant when the cap was cut from £50,000 to £35,000.

https://insideevs.com/news/499980/nissan-leaf-price-cut-uk/

mattwnz

20164 posts

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#2692200 13-Apr-2021 18:02

HarmLessSolutions:

mattwnz:

..... Also if you want to tow, the EV options are limited at the more affordable level.

To the contrary:

That would be quite light weight being for a dingy? Not sure if there is a table for EVs showing the relative towing capabilities? I was looking at the tesla model 3, and it apparently wouldn't be good for towing.

HarmLessSolutions

974 posts

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#2692209 13-Apr-2021 18:35

mattwnz:

HarmLessSolutions:

To the contrary:

That would be quite light weight being for a dingy? Not sure if there is a table for EVs showing the relative towing capabilities? I was looking at the tesla model 3, and it apparently wouldn't be good for towing.

The Leaf I spotted at an Auckland boat ramp a few weeks back and I doubt it would have been hauling a trailer sailer. Apparently there are a couple of Model 3s in New Plymouth with towbars fitted but I guess more aimed toward weekend trips to the refuse station than for much larger.

Our Leaf won't be brought into towing duties anytime soon. We'll leave that for when we get our Rivian (*he says hopefully*).

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

alasta

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#2692212 13-Apr-2021 18:40

We have far too many cars, and it's a fantasy to think that they're all going to be replaced with electric vehicles. The reality is that decreasing the fleet size is going to have to be part of the solution.

New Zealanders have a weird cultural obsession with hoarding beat up old cars, and it's not sustainable if we're going to densify housing and decarbonise the transport system.

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mattwnz

20164 posts

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#2692215 13-Apr-2021 18:58

alasta:

We have far too many cars, and it's a fantasy to think that they're all going to be replaced with electric vehicles. The reality is that decreasing the fleet size is going to have to be part of the solution.

New Zealanders have a weird cultural obsession with hoarding beat up old cars, and it's not sustainable if we're going to densify housing and decarbonise the transport system.

This comes down to NZs terrible urban planning. I mean council approve big box retailer stores, so they can really only be accessed by car, and often miles away from any public transport. In outlying suburbs of London, they built the train infrastructure, and then built new suburbs around that public transport. NZ is often ambulance at the bottom of the cliff, where ne suburbs need cars, and where something has to become a crisis before something is done. Look at the problem NZ cities are now having with water supplies. Who is accountable for that? It also comes down to how large and fast do we want NZs population to grow.

tripper1000

1617 posts

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#2692229 13-Apr-2021 19:22

This comes down to NZs terrible urban planning.

Amen to that - but more like a failure to plan at all in any way shape or form, other than to say no to urban sprawl which has cause the housing crisis.

alasta: We have far too many cars, and it's a fantasy to think that they're all going to be replaced with electric vehicles. The reality is that decreasing the fleet size is going to have to be part of the solution.

New Zealanders have a weird cultural obsession with hoarding beat up old cars, and it's not sustainable if we're going to densify housing and decarbonise the transport system.

People won't be motivated by what they (sub) consciously know to be false. We have more land area, less cars, less carbon emission per capita and only 7.5% of the population of the U.K. We have no need to build the same miserable style of dense homes as they endure in the U.K. Our ancestors came to this country to get out of that lifestyle. Our obsession with beat-up old cars has its roots in the vehicle import taxes that were axed in the 90's - cars were so expensive you had to make them last.

wellygary

8328 posts

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#2692245 13-Apr-2021 19:53

HarmLessSolutions:

Apparently there are a couple of Model 3s in New Plymouth with towbars fitted but I guess more aimed toward weekend trips to the refuse station than for much larger.

Most likely for hauling MTBs around

tdgeek

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#2692396 14-Apr-2021 06:43

mattwnz:

This comes down to NZs terrible urban planning. I mean council approve big box retailer stores, so they can really only be accessed by car, and often miles away from any public transport. In outlying suburbs of London, they built the train infrastructure, and then built new suburbs around that public transport. NZ is often ambulance at the bottom of the cliff, where ne suburbs need cars, and where something has to become a crisis before something is done. Look at the problem NZ cities are now having with water supplies. Who is accountable for that? It also comes down to how large and fast do we want NZs population to grow.

Who is going to pay for it? If NZ was twice the population and lived in one city, like London, then yes, but we aren't. We want everything to our door, but we want less taxes, doesnt add up

GV27

5897 posts

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#2692403 14-Apr-2021 07:16

tripper1000:

People won't be motivated by what they (sub) consciously know to be false. We have more land area, less cars, less carbon emission per capita and only 7.5% of the population of the U.K. We have no need to build the same miserable style of dense homes as they endure in the U.K. Our ancestors came to this country to get out of that lifestyle. Our obsession with beat-up old cars has its roots in the vehicle import taxes that were axed in the 90's - cars were so expensive you had to make them last.

Agreed, some people seem to have this weird obsession with turning us into a carbon copy of generic world city number three.

We have 'an obsession' with cars because we've been a long, strung-out low density population that basically required all households to have a car. In days gone by, you had to basically strip down a car before you could go on a summer holiday, so it plays into our 'love pulling things to pieces' number eight wire bullshit. And in more recent times, we've had a very popular motorsport scene and our import laws have meant you can buy cars here that other countries cannot import legally anymore/yet.

I have many cars. I can only drive one at a time. What business is it of anyone else if my cars are stored on my own land and registered correctly? Are we suggesting we start capping the number of vehicles that any one person can own?

alasta

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#2692422 14-Apr-2021 08:29

GV27:

I have many cars. I can only drive one at a time. What business is it of anyone else if my cars are stored on my own land and registered correctly? Are we suggesting we start capping the number of vehicles that any one person can own?

It's fine if they're all on your property. However I think people should respect my preference to get around without using a car and I am concerned at the number of cars on broken yellow lines and obstructing footpaths and walking tracks, particularly in central Wellington suburbs.

frankv

5680 posts

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#2692424 14-Apr-2021 08:30

alasta:

We have far too many cars, and it's a fantasy to think that they're all going to be replaced with electric vehicles. The reality is that decreasing the fleet size is going to have to be part of the solution.

New Zealanders have a weird cultural obsession with hoarding beat up old cars, and it's not sustainable if we're going to densify housing and decarbonise the transport system.

Maybe it's an obsession, or maybe it's just because cars are more expensive here? In the 50s-60s, cars were horrendously expensive, and you needed foreign funds to purchase one. So there may yet be a cultural memory of (and infrastructure to support) that, and consequently a tendency to keep older cars. The more expensive a car is, the more worthwhile it is to repair it.

There is a circularity with cars and urban sprawl. If you have urban sprawl, then people need cars, probably two per household if both parents work. If car ownership is widespread, then urban sprawl is possible. Conversely, if you want people to give up their cars, you need to provide good public transport. But public transport is expensive when there's urban sprawl and lots of people have cars.

I do dispute your assertion that "it's a fantasy to think that they're all going to be replaced with electric vehicles". I believe the opposite is true -- in 10 or so years, every new car will be electric, just because they're cheaper and better than ICEVs. The Tony Seba presentation mentioned earlier predicts "Transport as a Service", where electric autonomous vehicles will be so cheap that no-one will want to own their own car.

tdgeek

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#2692428 14-Apr-2021 08:40

alasta:

It's fine if they're all on your property. However I think people should respect my preference to get around without using a car and I am concerned at the number of cars on broken yellow lines and obstructing footpaths and walking tracks, particularly in central Wellington suburbs.

Good idea but it wont happen, we are too small to provide near to door to door public transport. EV's are a good idea but it won't happen for many many years. So we need to look elsewhere for a today solution, but for Kiwi's, it has to be cheap, it has to be easy, no taxes, and it must not affect me, that's the Kiwi way. Beaten before we started

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