the future is here in Australia: EV vs ICE

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › the future is here in Australia: EV vs ICE

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2120 posts

Uber Geek

#3004706 2-Dec-2022 15:22

Scott3:
This summer the situation is partially harsh, due to rental car companies selling down their fleets, and shortages / wait times of new cars. Ace, Apex, Hertz completly sold out (all vehicle sizes) for downtown Auckland.

Believe me this is something I'm acutely aware of. I spend half my month in rental cars. We are having to change our trip directions as our normal provider won't have cars for Christchurch to Queenstown, or Nelson to Christchurch.

everettpsycho

614 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3004853 2-Dec-2022 19:36

tchart:
Given cars and EVs in general are going up in price, its unlikley that in 5 years the market will suddenly be flooded with affordable EV's.

The ev market is still very much in it's infancy though, we are already seeing the likes of BYD and MG introduce vehicles in a much more attainable price range and speculation is there's more in the way with extended ranges from the pair as well as other manufacturers like great wall entering more markets. There's also battery technology that has potential to begin shifting over to sodium batteries and reduce the litium requirements, again speculation is BYD are about commence production of these cells for their vehicles which has the potential to drive down manufacturing costs significantly removing the expensive elements required.

If the new market prices see a drop the second hand market will follow, no one will buy a used car for more than a new one and I'd find it very hard to justify a 2020 40kwh leaf over a brand new byd dolphin which are in the same ballpark price range if they hit the rumoured pricing. I fully expect our leafs to plummet in value in about 2 to 3 years as these newer offerings start reaching the end of leases and hit the second hand market, but by that time we would have recouped all of what we spent not buying petrol. Upgrading then will be the harder sell though as we don't stand to save anything moving to another ev like we did moving to them in the first place.

There's a lot of speculation in there but the second hand market will eventually get there, what's missing is an affordable battery upgrade or swap on the older cars to keep them on the road at a reasonable price, unfortunately I don't believe the EVs enhanced battery will be affordable for a severely degraded pack being traded in which is the cars that need the thing the most. This could be a problem in the making if the vehicles continue to be reliable and it's something I feel like in a few years time will need addressing for more and more models. It would be good to see encouragement to reuse the degraded packs in static storage at a reasonable price to help fun battery swaps and keep vehicles where the rest of the components are fine on the road.

gzt

17151 posts

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#3004912 2-Dec-2022 20:42

Obraik: From that video, one thing I think they did wrong with the EV was the charging overnight in Hay. Looking at Plugshare, Hay has a motel that has destination chargers. Had they stayed at that motel, the Kia driver could have plugged it in and had it charge overnight without any special waiting around being required.

Usual Youtube silly stuff.

driller2000

935 posts

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#3004930 2-Dec-2022 22:18

tchart:

rb99:

Its also a question of being able to afford them.

^^^ this, current prices are stupid money - its unobtainium for the majority of NZ.

The cheapest new EV in NZ is MG ZS EV for $48,990 ($40,365 after rebate).

Lets assume you could get finance for $40K - thats about $475 per fortnight (AA car loan) plus what ever electricity you use. AFAIK you

However if I get a nice secondhand ICE for $10K its $121 per fortnight. Difference being $354 which would more than cover two tanks of 91 a fortnight.

The total fornightly spend is "close" but I dont think many low income earners would be approved for a $40K car loan (at least not at 7-10%pa).

And while we can wait for the second hand market, do you think after 5-6 years a second hand EV would be $10K?

Your car comparison is not really apples with apples though is it?

i.e. Brand New 2022 MG ZS EV vs. 2015 Nissan Note* with 100,000kms. (*$10k / ICE / 6 years old.)

michaelmurfy

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#3004933 2-Dec-2022 22:37

everettpsycho: what's missing is an affordable battery upgrade or swap on the older cars to keep them on the road at a reasonable price, unfortunately I don't believe the EVs enhanced battery will be affordable for a severely degraded pack being traded in which is the cars that need the thing the most. This could be a problem in the making if the vehicles continue to be reliable and it's something I feel like in a few years time will need addressing for more and more models. It would be good to see encouragement to reuse the degraded packs in static storage at a reasonable price to help fun battery swaps and keep vehicles where the rest of the components are fine on the road.

This is actually way less of a problem than people make it out to be. The only cars with real degraded batteries are ones that are air cooled (eg - Nissan Leaf) that eventually cook themselves either due to fast charging or extended trips. Newer EV's have liquid cooled batteries and far better battery management meaning when people like myself upgrade our cars the 2nd hand cars we offload will still have perfectly usable batteries with minimal degradation.

This has already been proven to be the case with old Tesla's (with liquid cooled batteries) exceeding 400,000km on the clock. A real example is Bjørn Nyland doing a road trip with his old Tesla:

(Part 2 - https://youtu.be/gPtFazq8E38 / Simple heater fix - https://youtu.be/PRCfEYIrdl4)

I'm actually really impressed with how well many older EV's are aging.

Michael Murphy | https://murfy.nz
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GV27

5897 posts

Uber Geek

#3005093 3-Dec-2022 12:47

michaelmurfy:

Newer EV's have liquid cooled batteries and far better battery management meaning when people like myself upgrade our cars the 2nd hand cars we offload will still have perfectly usable batteries with minimal degradation.

LFP is making big inroads in density and is far more resilient as well. The real gains for Leafs will be LFP retrofits, the cooling is less of an issue for commuters but will help with fast charging.

SJB

2945 posts

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Inactive user

#3005098 3-Dec-2022 13:05

What happens in NZ at the moment if your EV runs out of juice half way down the SI west coast or say rural Canterbury? Do all the AA vans have charging facilities?

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Obraik

2123 posts

Uber Geek

#3005102 3-Dec-2022 13:34

SJB:

What happens in NZ at the moment if your EV runs out of juice half way down the SI west coast or say rural Canterbury? Do all the AA vans have charging facilities?

You get it towed to the nearest charger. Other than a Leaf, you'd have to do something very wrong to get yourself in a position where you run out of charge.

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Wombat1

586 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#3005105 3-Dec-2022 13:48

Why are leaf's so unpopular here in Aus? Is it because of the poorer mileage and that the batteries dont operate at the same efficiency as leafs in cooler countries? Or is it just our import restrictions on used cars? I have not seen a single Leaf here, Teslas though are pretty popular. Having said that, NZ does seem to have an obsession with Leaf's which I cant get my head around.

Obraik

2123 posts

Uber Geek

#3005106 3-Dec-2022 13:52

Australia's climate is not very friendly to an EV that has no means of cooling its battery. Heat is what kills lithium batteries, so driving around in Australia's heat just makes their packs degrade faster. On top of that, fast charging in that heat makes the process very slow, since it can't charge as fast when the pack is hot. It's probably for this reason that Nissan AU never really got serious about selling the Leaf in Aus and importing them from Japan wasn't really an option due to Australia's import rules. NZ on the other hand has no such import rules, has a milder climate and shorter distances between cities so the Leaf became a cheap and for most, practical car for many.

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old3eyes

9120 posts

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#3005647 4-Dec-2022 15:16

Wombat1:

Why are leaf's so unpopular here in Aus? Is it because of the poorer mileage and that the batteries dont operate at the same efficiency as leafs in cooler countries? Or is it just our import restrictions on used cars? I have not seen a single Leaf here, Teslas though are pretty popular. Having said that, NZ does seem to have an obsession with Leaf's which I cant get my head around.

Import restrictions on used cars. When the Ozzy manufacturing finished the Ozzy government did a deal with the new car importers not to open up the market for used cars as happened in NZ.

There use to be a humongous import duty on used imports in Ozz . Not sure what it is now.

Regards,

Old3eyes

Scott3

3972 posts

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#3006054 5-Dec-2022 17:04

SJB:

What happens in NZ at the moment if your EV runs out of juice half way down the SI west coast or say rural Canterbury? Do all the AA vans have charging facilities?

AA currently has two charging van's in Auckland, one in wellington, and are expected to get one in Christchurch later this year.

Should note that they are AC chargers, and advertise 10km of charge in 25 - 30 mins, so are a great solution where one is say 3km from a fast charger, and just need a little charge, but not really a solution if one is 50km away.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMk86qPd7_A

Alternate solution as other's have mentioned is to get a regular tow truck to take the EV home, or to the nearest fast charger.

mudguard

2120 posts

Uber Geek

#3006063 5-Dec-2022 17:30

Scott3:

Alternate solution as other's have mentioned is to get a regular tow truck to take the EV home, or to the nearest fast charger.

If you get a tow could you shove the brakes on and get a bit of charge at the same time? Tow truck might not like it!!

Scott3

3972 posts

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Lifetime subscriber

#3006068 5-Dec-2022 17:39

Wombat1:

Why are leaf's so unpopular here in Aus? Is it because of the poorer mileage and that the batteries dont operate at the same efficiency as leafs in cooler countries? Or is it just our import restrictions on used cars? I have not seen a single Leaf here, Teslas though are pretty popular. Having said that, NZ does seem to have an obsession with Leaf's which I cant get my head around.

Aust in general isn't as good of location for leaf's in NZ.

As others have mentioned, the climate is a big factor. Not as attractive to buy a leaf when you live in a very warm climate, and from about 2012 reports of leaf batteries failing in short order in very hot parts of the USA.

Nissan Aust ordered way too many car's in 2011. A decent number of them sat in storage untill 2013 when they were shipped to NZ and sold as 2013 cars for just under $40k (before that NZ new leaf's were $70k). They are the one's with spare tyres.

Also mentioned above, the availability of used imports from japan is a massive factor too. The vast majority of leaf's in NZ are used imports from Japan (or sometimes the UK). To protect their domestic auto industry, Aussie regulations made it very hard to get used imports. Recently this has been relaxed a little, but is is still way harder than in NZ. the need to comply with ADR is an example. My leaf would need a third car seat top tether fitted as an example, something that is of no value to me as I only have one child.

There are some other factors that impact EV's in aust:

Generally less environmental concern than in NZ (which seems objectively odd given they are substantially impacted by climate change).
Higher power prices & much cheaper fuel prices than NZ
Longer travel distances than in NZ.
No charge.net / West family (They put a lot of money into building out 50kW fast chargers back in a time when Aussie had very little)
Luxury car tax (33% of value over AU$71,849 or AU$84,916 for fuel efficient vehicles currently), makes purchasing high priced EV's (BMW iX, Tesla S & X etc), much more expensive than in NZ.
Relatively few incentives compared to NZ. See table at bottom, nothing close to NZ's $7650 rebate.
Some states are already taxing EV's "The more expensive EVs in the market get hit with Luxury Car Tax (LCT) and back in 2021, the Victorian government passed a tariff that taxes EV drivers 2.5 cents per kilometre travelled and 2 cents for PHEV vehicles."
Concern about the stability of the power (driven from the 2016 south aust blackout which impacted 1.7m people).
Distorted information - Sky News is only 24/7 news channel, and includes content bad enough to get it banned from youtube.

In the early EV days in NZ, we had enough leaf's to give a bit of volume of EV's, and enough (initially grey market import) Tesla Model S to show what is possible at a high price point, and to attract Tesla to start officially offering cars in a market as small as NZ.

This critical mass, combined with the fast charger investment from the west's, and the government RUC exemption, was enough for NZ's EV numbers to snowball. (of course helped by the government rebate, and the release in the last few years of many desirable EV's)

AUST:

cut 002

PolicyGuy

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#3006070 5-Dec-2022 17:43

mudguard:

Scott3:

Alternate solution as other's have mentioned is to get a regular tow truck to take the EV home, or to the nearest fast charger.

If you get a tow could you shove the brakes on and get a bit of charge at the same time? Tow truck might not like it!!

They wouldn't use a real tow-truck and drag you along behind it, they'd use a flatbed tipper with a winch and whisk you away on top of it, like this hyper-realistic version:

😂😂😂

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