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Jas777
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  #2644238 29-Jan-2021 20:03
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GV27:

 

The Pullman issue will be something simple like a surface that was low-risk when the facility had a handful of infections with the less-infectious original variants that is suddenly a high risk surface when you have more people with a more infectious variant walking around. It was possibly always going to happen and may yet happen in other MIQ facilities. 

 

Two things bother me: The dumb luck that the more infectious variant managed to get out but apparently hasn't caused a long chain of transmission despite these people visiting numerous crowded places for long periods of time in multiple districts seems incredibly lucky on our part. Secondly, the fact that if it is out there and there is a longer incubation period, then we may be seeing people returning negative tests now who may yet start showing symptoms. But I guess we'll know more about how likely that is today.

 

 

Or maybe just lucky because the people who had it didn't do anything that spreads it. If they had gone to a wedding or a church or worked in a building with close desks and bad air con.

 

Contrary to what scares people you don't catch it by being in a shop that someone was in for 20 minutes who you were never close to. 

 

Plus certain groups of people don't do social settings as others do. 2 older people who don't go dancing and drinking in crowded bars or have big family groups or do concerts etc.




Oblivian
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  #2644239 29-Jan-2021 20:07
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Visa hopping story was in Herald yesterday - my original link.

 

It was asked about in standup, he was since aware of it. Nick Smith didn't seem phased for some reason. And 'didn't see any evidence'.. even though this seems one.

 

Going by some of the other authoritive people on radio, questions being raised if worth looking into if that needs work to stamp out given how australia has 54? border rules to stop holes.

 

Though, it just got harder with the UAE being shut out of anyone from afar coming back via UK anyway.

 

https://youtu.be/gfSTnaXIPcw?t=1468 - Is it a concern

 

https://youtu.be/gfSTnaXIPcw?t=1836 - Should there be changes to stop it


freitasm
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  #2644308 30-Jan-2021 09:09
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At some point arrivals might even slow down due to no action of our government but simply because routes will become increasingly less available.





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Technofreak
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  #2644342 30-Jan-2021 10:28
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https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018781548/cruise-ship-denial-doesn-t-make-sense-travel-group-manager 

 

  • The ship had approval to come here with the usual requirement that the crew had valid visas.
  • Bookings were only taken after the approval had been given
  • The "hotel" crew double as fire fighters and perform other safety related roles, so they're not just a barman or hairdresser therefore were essential crew while operating here.
  • The crew will have been in isolation for 4 weeks. There should be no burden on our MIQ facilities.

Apparently it has been normal practice to apply for visas en-route. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/435456/applying-for-ship-s-crew-visas-en-route-not-unusual 

 

Some things don't make sense. Why would such a ship be brought to New Zealand specifically for maintenance/servicing when this size of vessel isn't normally brought here for this sort of work? Despite what Kris Faafoi claims there is no way this vessel was coming just for maintenance and therefore the only essential crew would be those actually involved in operating the ship.

 

It appears to be a lot of confusion around our convoluted approval process and rules and what some approvals actually mean. Reading between the lines various government departments are not on the same page. Also I suspect a bit of "lost in translation" with the French company that owns/runs the ship.

 

There is already a precedent for people off a ship arriving in New Zealand. A few months ago passengers off another ship arriving in New Zealand who had effectively quarantined on the ship were given a Covid test and then on receiving a negative were allowed ashore 48 hours later.

 

You'd think there would be a government minister with the kahunas to get all the affected parties together and thrash out a workable solution. Apparently not. The other option is it is really is an ideological approach to managing our border.





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Oblivian
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  #2644344 30-Jan-2021 10:35
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It's not a case of maintenance?
The intention was a visa qualified crew, to take new Zealand paying customers. Around new Zealand, on a floating hotel for a mini cruise

Ala once crew gained required entry status. Work. Finish cruise(s). Go home

https://www.cruiseabout.co.nz/product/13733941

Technofreak
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  #2644351 30-Jan-2021 10:47
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Oblivian: It's not a case of maintenance?
The intention was a visa qualified crew, to take new Zealand paying customers. Around new Zealand, on a floating hotel for a mini cruise

Ala once crew gained required entry status. Work. Finish cruise(s). Go home

https://www.cruiseabout.co.nz/product/13733941

 

From the first article I linked.

 

Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi said the ship had clearance to conduct maintenance and servicing in New Zealand, but only if crew had appropriate visas.





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tdgeek
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  #2644353 30-Jan-2021 10:54
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https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/01/kiwi-designed-covid-19-antibody-test-could-open-borders-again.html

 

I thought this seems like a great idea. But Govt seems luke warm on it. While Chris Hipkins said they cannot endorse any company, surely its worth throwing everything at the service to see how it pans out. Urgent. If it didn't pan out, no problem, if it did, it could be a game changer. The Govt should be saying it looks promising so we fully support it and they start at MIQ on Monday. But no. 

 

Or is a test that confirms if a person has antibodies and is immune, not that simple?


 
 
 

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Oblivian
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  #2644356 30-Jan-2021 11:00
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Technofreak:

From the first article I linked.


Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi said the ship had clearance to conduct maintenance and servicing in New Zealand, but only if crew had appropriate visas.



Likely find that covers off their stance now.
Which is it can have escorted berth for resupplying before leaving waters.

But as it didn't meet the cruise criteria, that's it thus far.

kingdragonfly
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  #2644370 30-Jan-2021 11:35
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Technofreak: https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018781548/cruise-ship-denial-doesn-t-make-sense-travel-group-managerThe crew will have been in isolation for 4 weeks. There should be no burden on our MIQ facilities.


A lesson I've learned from COVID is enough people are jerks, and cannot be trusted.

The old Russian proverb is "Trust but verify."

I believe the common minimum is 72 hours without any symptoms and a minimum of 10 days with symptoms.

I'd certainly feel better with anyone getting at least 3 days of isolation, no matter how long they been isolated on a boat.

sbiddle
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  #2644427 30-Jan-2021 15:29
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tdgeek:

 

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/01/kiwi-designed-covid-19-antibody-test-could-open-borders-again.html

 

I thought this seems like a great idea. But Govt seems luke warm on it. While Chris Hipkins said they cannot endorse any company, surely its worth throwing everything at the service to see how it pans out. Urgent. If it didn't pan out, no problem, if it did, it could be a game changer. The Govt should be saying it looks promising so we fully support it and they start at MIQ on Monday. But no. 

 

Or is a test that confirms if a person has antibodies and is immune, not that simple?

 

 

One of the problrms with rapid pinprick serology tests is that they have proven highly inaccurate. Even mid year they were seen as a huge solution to problems by many governments, and a number (incl the UK) spent massive amounts of money of such tests and found them to be faulty or simply not accurate.

 

 


tdgeek
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  #2644441 30-Jan-2021 17:12
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Bugger!


kingdragonfly
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  #2644468 30-Jan-2021 19:25
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THis video is 3 months old, but I think it's still accurate enough.

Why The Covid-19 Vaccines Must Be Kept So Cold

Cheddar Explains


tdgeek
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  #2644823 31-Jan-2021 19:11
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Batman:

 

Perth in lockdown

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-perth-plunged-into-lockdown-after-confirmed-case-in-community/YZ7WK4INQY3KXAQHXR46JNL2TA/

 

 

 

 

Their MIQ has 4 cases and still a leak? It goes to show that bubbles won't happen. MIQ's cannot be 100% secure so if someone wants a bubble, it can be popped by a Govt at any time, so holidays seem too risky


kingdragonfly
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  #2644838 31-Jan-2021 19:53
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A March 2020 article:

Nature: On the origins of SARS-CoV-2

...there is no credible evidence that SARS-CoV-2 was ever known to virologists before it emerged in December 2019, and all indications suggest that, like SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, this virus probably evolved in a bat host until an unknown spillover event into humans occurred....

A favorite version of the laboratory-origin stories relies on the fact that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered for gain-of-function studies that were also previously performed with bat SARS-like coronaviruses to understand cross-species transmission risk (Nat. Med. 21, 1508–1513; 2015).

The irony is that those gain-of-function studies provided valuable information about the biology of SARS-CoV-2.

Gain-of-function research is also subject to intense scrutiny and governmental oversight, precisely because of the high risk involved in conducting it safely; thus, it is extremely unlikely that gain-of-function research on hard-to-obtain coronaviruses (such as bat SARS-like coronaviruses) could occur under the radar.

Moreover, there is an extensive history of pathogen emergence by natural means: most novel viral pathogens that have caused epidemics or pandemics in the human population have emerged naturally from a wildlife reservoir.

Therefore, the overwhelming conclusion is that this virus, too, found its way into a human host through a series of unhappy accidental encounters with animals.
...


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