2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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BDFL - Memuneh
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#2662656 25-Feb-2021 14:28

1200+ people isolating now from kmart. So because of one, a lot of people will have to take sick days, impact on families, businesses, etc.

Fred99

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#2662659 25-Feb-2021 14:36

frankv:

What are the odds of eradicating covid (in which case immunity is irrelevant)? If enough people are vaccinated, R0 will drop and the disease will die out. I think this is possible in wealthy countries, but can we vaccinate enough people in poor countries?

IMO there's no chance of eradication.

IIRC 99% of people offered vaccination in the UK have accepted it, but polls suggest that in the US 30-50% of the population don't want to be vaccinated. I read similar figures claimed for the UK, but can't find a reference to it. Initial vaccination of health professionals and of those at most immediate risk of dying if they catch Covid explains the initial very high vaccination acceptance rate.

Even without considering the impact from poor countries. I don't think there's any chance of eradicating it. There's also a problem with calculating "herd immunity" based on whole population % immunity and R0. People do tend to socialise with age group and social peers, then pockets of low % immunity are going to be a problem - not just to themselves, but as a risk of infection to those who can't be vaccinated (for medical reasons) or for whom vaccination isn't going to be effective (older people).

It's going to be an effort to get vaccination rates up to the level needed, even if vaccination continues to achieve the good efficacy levels reported now - and we are able to keep up with immunity from vaccination if we end up having to play whack-a-mole with virus variants.

I'm a bit of a pessimist on that. Maximum global effort should have been put into reducing transmission thus number of active cases before vaccine rollout. Mutations are random, it's just a numbers game. Even before there was any vaccination - thus without any known selection pressure - strains have appeared that show "some" resistance. (possibly some selection pressure if the virus "escaped" immunity from people who may have had partial/cross-immunity from past infection - not necessarily from C-19)

People with compromised immune systems tend to get sicker and carry the infection much longer, the longer and more times the virus is able to replicate in a host by defeating a weak immune system, the higher the chance of "complete" immune escape appearing. All hospitalised with C-19 should be in isolation, precautions shouldn't be eased because hospital staff etc have been vaccinated.

frankv

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#2662660 25-Feb-2021 14:38

Oblivian:

I want the future to hurry up both there and the UK to see if the effective-ness of distribution is going to actually start making a difference to the R factor and those ignoring logic in prevention that the rest of us are essentially hostage to. Going to suck if the golden goose turns out to be a bronze duck.

I guess Israel *is* the future right now, being the world leader in vaccination. Case numbers there are dropping according to worldometer, although I don't know whether that's due to vaccinations or other measures.

wellygary

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#2662661 25-Feb-2021 14:43

frankv:

Oblivian:

I want the future to hurry up both there and the UK to see if the effective-ness of distribution is going to actually start making a difference to the R factor and those ignoring logic in prevention that the rest of us are essentially hostage to. Going to suck if the golden goose turns out to be a bronze duck.

I guess Israel *is* the future right now, being the world leader in vaccination. Case numbers there are dropping according to worldometer, although I don't know whether that's due to vaccinations or other measures.

Its vaccination....

Age group composition of new cases is heavily skewed to groups with low vaccination...

"Due to the high immunization rate among the adult population, the composition of those infected and critically ill has changed in recent weeks. Children and adolescents aged 0 to 19 constitute more than 43 percent of all new patients, and those aged 20 to 39 constitute 35 percent of them"

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/drop-in-israel-s-covid-infection-rates-halts-raising-concerns-of-renewed-outbrek-1.9566113

kingdragonfly

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#2662663 25-Feb-2021 14:57

I expected Ultra-Orthodox Jews will cause trouble in Israel, as they have in New York.

We could learn some lesson for how to deal with the stubborn, and you don't get more stubborn than Ultra-Orthodox of any denomination.

AP New : Israel’s ultra-Orthodox reject criticism, defy virus rules

In Jerusalem ..., ultra-Orthodox Jews have defied coronavirus restrictions by holding big funerals for beloved rabbis who died of COVID-19, celebrating large weddings, and continuing to send their children to schools. The gatherings have led to clashes with police and an unprecedented wave of public anger toward the religious community.

On Tuesday night, hundreds of ultra-Orthodox demonstrators protested lockdown restrictions, set dumpsters on fire, and faced off with police officers in Jerusalem.

...The ultra-Orthodox community makes up about 12% of Israel’s 9.3 million people. Gilad Malach, a researcher at the Israel Democracy Institute, says ultra-Orthodox believers accounted for over a third of the country’s COVID-19 cases in 2020. Among Israelis over 65, the community’s mortality rate was three times that of the general population, he added.

Health Ministry data show vaccination rates in ultra-Orthodox areas lag far behind the national average.

But the ultra-Orthodox community has wielded outsize influence, using its kingmaker status in parliament to secure benefits and generous government subsidies.
...

Tinkerisk

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#2662676 25-Feb-2021 15:39

SJB:

Tinkerisk:

The Spanish flu took 2.5 years to extinguish (with high losses) without any known modern treatment or vaccination. We're past year 1 now ...

With a much smaller world population with much less mobility.

That's true. But do you really think it's over when you only are vaccinated? The virus wants to 'survive' and will mutate with even higher speeds. With the vaccination we're not done by far.

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wellygary

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#2662689 25-Feb-2021 15:52

Tinkerisk:

That's true. But do you really think it's over when you only are vaccinated? The virus wants to 'survive' and will mutate with even higher speeds. With the vaccination we're not done by far.

The virus doesn't "want" anything it is simply doing what its genes tell it.....

Mutations will continue to happen when cells replicate, some will make it easier to survive, while others will make survival more difficult

Fewer people able to catch the "original" virus means fewer opportunities for mutations...

There is nothing to suggest that mutations are increasing at a genetic level, its just that as there are now more people infected, hence there are more potential hosts for mutations to occur in..

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kingdragonfly

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#2662695 25-Feb-2021 16:13

If someone accuses the media of giving a bad misrepresentation of your group or "they just don't get us", it's probably deserved.

Believe it or not, this thought occurred to me was not related to Trump.

It's related to a group of anti-vaxxers complaining of unfair press treatment.

Tinkerisk

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#2662696 25-Feb-2021 16:13

wellygary:

Tinkerisk:

That's true. But do you really think it's over when you only are vaccinated? The virus wants to 'survive' and will mutate with even higher speeds. With the vaccination we're not done by far.

There is nothing to suggest that mutations are increasing at a genetic level, its just that as there are now more people infected, hence there are more potential hosts for mutations to occur in..

Wasn't time and mobility of the people the argument now you forget to mention? Civilization pressures and mobility will favor any kind of epidemic. In the past, we just barely missed pandemics several times. Not this time. And with the increasing world population and their desire for mobility, less and less. The effects will become more severe, as will climate change. I mean this scientifically, not ideologically.

wellygary

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#2662708 25-Feb-2021 16:31

Tinkerisk:

Wasn't time and mobility of the people the argument now you forget to mention? Civilization pressures and mobility will favor any kind of epidemic. In the past, we just barely missed pandemics several times. Not this time. And with the increasing world population and their desire for mobility, less and less. The effects will become more severe, as will climate change. I mean this scientifically, not ideologically.

The 1918 flu infected an estimated 1/3 of the global population and killed ~3%.. even with higher today's higher density and mobility we are nowhere near that...

It killed 670K in the US out of a population of 100 million...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

Tinkerisk

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#2662715 25-Feb-2021 16:58

Then tell me how high the global number of Covid-19 victims would be without treatment and vaccination and how long it would last. Comparing apples with oranges doesn't make that much sense right now.

Fred99

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#2662729 25-Feb-2021 17:19

wellygary:

Tinkerisk:

Wasn't time and mobility of the people the argument now you forget to mention? Civilization pressures and mobility will favor any kind of epidemic. In the past, we just barely missed pandemics several times. Not this time. And with the increasing world population and their desire for mobility, less and less. The effects will become more severe, as will climate change. I mean this scientifically, not ideologically.

The 1918 flu infected an estimated 1/3 of the global population and killed ~3%.. even with higher today's higher density and mobility we are nowhere near that...

It killed 670K in the US out of a population of 100 million...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

Big mystery is how it just "went away" and nothing close to being as severe has ever come back.

I quite like the hypothesis that increased mobility and population density has meant we're all exposed to other influenza A subtypes that give us some partial / cross immunity. Supporting that is another hypothesis, that the reason the "Spanish" flu was most severe to young and fit rather than the older population as would be expected was that there had been a widespread global influenza A pandemic in 1889-90, many of those aged ~28 or over would have already been exposed to that previous strain, which although quite different may have imparted some cross-immunity to the new H1N1 strain.

Anyway that's the flu - not Covid.

Batman

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#2662733 25-Feb-2021 17:39

According to this India's reported case rate drops 90% after having it spreading like wildfire with no lockdowns

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/24/asia/india-covid-decline-explainer-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

freitasm

BDFL - Memuneh
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#2662768 25-Feb-2021 20:00

I said it before. We don't need imported covidiots. Send Lucinda Baulch back to Australia.

kingdragonfly

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#2662770 25-Feb-2021 20:01

Batman: According to this India's reported case rate drops 90% after having it spreading like wildfire with no lockdowns

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/24/asia/india-covid-decline-explainer-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

Good article. Nice and long.

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