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Scott3
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  #2708730 17-May-2021 22:45
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Geektastic: Came across this in an article about the flu jab. Quite telling.

“In the first month of the rollout, to May 14, more than 425,700 people over 65 were immunised, according to the National Immunisation Register, but the Ministry of Health estimates the actual number is higher.

This is more than the number of Covid-19 vaccine doses administered in the three months since the programme started.”

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300309713/flu-jab-rolls-out-to-new-zealanders-under-65-after-monthlong-delay-in-schedule

 

Got mine booked in on Wednesday. $30 at my GP or $20 at chemist warehouse, so went the latter route.

 

 

 

This outcome is fairly predictable, and could well be considered optimal.

 

  • Covid-19 vaccination program is very supply constrained we could eaisly ramp it up, but would just run our stockpile down to zero and need to pause untill the next shipment. While a little delayed, we will have abundant flu vaccines for this season (a record 2.4m doses on order)
  • We have currently received shipments of 1.3m influenza vaccines vs cira 750k covid-19 vaccines.
  • Distribution channels of influenza vaccines are mature (GP's, Pharmacies, workplace vaccination centers etc), They do this every year so have a fairly good handle on how to run the process.
  • GP's and the likes have been told to "go nuts" and expedite the flu vaccine roll out as much as possible in order to increase the odds that two+ weeks will have passed when those same people are invited to get a covid-19 vaccine.
  • Seems to be a deliberate decision not to yet involve GP's and pharmacies on mass in the covid-19 roll out, I assume to both keep their resources available for the flu roll out, and to keep them as a resource that can be quickly spun up when our large covid-19 vaccine shipments start landing in a month or two.
  • The triage / priority tiers, the focus on not wasting doses, and the effort in encouraging those at high risk (border workers, medical front liners etc) would have slowed the covid-19 vaccine roll out. No such concern for the influenza vaccine simple inoculate everybody that one can. (however there are 4 different products for different age groups. Only the 65+ age one was available before today).

The good news is that the flu vaccine rate should spike now it is opened to all ages. Another 4 - 6 weeks should see the bulk of the flu jab rush tackled. And as soon as the covid-19 vaccine supply dictates (Big shipments from our 2nd order expected in a month or two), most of the resources that are currently doing flu vaccinations can be re-allocated to do Covid-19 vaccinations.




Handle9
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  #2708747 18-May-2021 04:19
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sbiddle:

A brilliant (but long) read about aerosol vs droplet transmission and why it took us so long to accept what was happening


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/opinion/coronavirus-airborne-transmission.html?smid=tw-share


 



This is also very good

https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/

sbiddle
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  #2708814 18-May-2021 07:17
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antonknee:

 

Spoke too soon mate - 38 new community COVID-19 cases in Singapore, highest in more than a year - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) . You might also like to consider who it was that had the #1 response (Bloomberg) before Singapore pipped that post on the basis of their vaccine rollout (I'll give you a hint, it was New Zealand).

 

I don't remember being told we'd beat Covid, but I'll admit to not listening to everything the PM says. Totally agree cocky people who aren't prepared for further lockdowns/other responses are idiots (but that's just people for you).

 

 

That was the exactly point of my post - we think we've invincible, we beat Covid, and that there is no risk to us as a country. We have lots of people who are in no rush to get the vaccine because there is no Covid here, and every day on social media when people start discussing the slow vaccine rollout we have huge numbers of people attacking anybody who dare says anything bad about the government.

 

Singapore and Taiwan are all the proof we need that for both Australia and NZ the lifestyle we've been able to live for the past 12 months (excluding Victoria who have suffered the most) could change overnight, and that we really are living on tenterhooks. We've had so many border breaches and can't keep playing Russian roulette and winning, especially with the higher transmission rates of newer variants.

 

I've just spent a long weekend on the West Coast and met people in true despair who simply don't know how they're going to survive another 12+ months with their businesses operating at significant losses... And yet there are plenty of people (and we've seen them post on here) who believe NZ is just back to normal.

 

 

 

 

 

 




sbiddle
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  #2708815 18-May-2021 07:27
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Scott3:

 

Geektastic: Came across this in an article about the flu jab. Quite telling.

“In the first month of the rollout, to May 14, more than 425,700 people over 65 were immunised, according to the National Immunisation Register, but the Ministry of Health estimates the actual number is higher.

This is more than the number of Covid-19 vaccine doses administered in the three months since the programme started.”

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300309713/flu-jab-rolls-out-to-new-zealanders-under-65-after-monthlong-delay-in-schedule

 

Got mine booked in on Wednesday. $30 at my GP or $20 at chemist warehouse, so went the latter route.

 

 

 

This outcome is fairly predictable, and could well be considered optimal.

 

  • Covid-19 vaccination program is very supply constrained we could eaisly ramp it up, but would just run our stockpile down to zero and need to pause untill the next shipment. While a little delayed, we will have abundant flu vaccines for this season (a record 2.4m doses on order)

 

 

 

The question that should be asked however is at what point our Covid strategy has to evolve, and whether we have the ability to ramp up at short notice if we end up like Singapore or Taiwan are now with multiple breakouts of CT.

 

Data showed a better immune/antibody response with a longer duration between first and second doses with the AZ vaccine. Data from the UK on Friday showed that at least in elderly that with same applies with Pfizer.

 

Singapore are currently looking at moving to a longer period with the current outbreaks as many now believe the UK strategy of trying to get the first jab into as many arms as possible is the best.

 

 


Batman

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  #2708816 18-May-2021 07:33
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sbiddle:

 

Data showed a better immune/antibody response with a longer duration between first and second doses with the AZ vaccine. Data from the UK on Friday showed that at least in elderly that with same applies with Pfizer.

 

 

IIRC

 

the authors of that study cautioned the interpretation of antibody response.

 

they said Pfizer chose 3 weeks booster as their study showed max T cell response at 3 weeks.

 

and concluded nobody knows if 3 or 12 or anything in between or beyond is better.

 

but said delay didn't appear worse

 

tldr - probably fine whenever you take the 2nd shot as long as it's not too late lol (based on current knowledge)


Batman

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  #2708817 18-May-2021 07:36
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sbiddle:

 

The question that should be asked however is at what point our Covid strategy has to evolve, and whether we have the ability to ramp up at short notice if we end up like Singapore or Taiwan are now with multiple breakouts of CT.

 

Data showed a better immune/antibody response with a longer duration between first and second doses with the AZ vaccine. Data from the UK on Friday showed that at least in elderly that with same applies with Pfizer.

 

Singapore are currently looking at moving to a longer period with the current outbreaks as many now believe the UK strategy of trying to get the first jab into as many arms as possible is the best.

 

 

we follow guidelines to the T.

 

did everything the WHO said.

 

unlikely to deviate from manufacturer recommendation, when you pick the date of your second shot - says 3 weeks.

 

but then we have the freedom to pick whatever the date of our second dose so it's not really a strict 3 weeks

 

but i don't see why we can;t do what you suggest if there is a contagion


Fred99
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  #2708824 18-May-2021 08:18
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sbiddle:

 

Singapore are currently looking at moving to a longer period with the current outbreaks as many now believe the UK strategy of trying to get the first jab into as many arms as possible is the best.

 

 

It's what Canada are doing now.  It's a gamble with human lives, but the data seems to support the strategy when vaccine supply is short

 

Singapore have closed all schools (excl preschool).

 

An article on Reuters attributed Singapore's action to arrival of the B1617 variant, which they claimed was affecting children (ie more than original "wild" strains.

 

Wouldn't surprise me if that's true, the variant might also explain why India, Vietnam and other countries with low obesity rates had C19 "under control" but now have started having a problem - obesity being a common factor linking the "co-morbidities" (diabetes, CVD, and disease associated with aging etc).  Of course that could be coincidence, it could be entirely "lockdown fatigue" - I just doubt it.  The vaccines works well enough to keep a lid on it, but there's not enough.

 

 


 
 
 

Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).
Batman

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  #2708825 18-May-2021 08:18
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Border exemption for a handful of wealthy investors

Somehow I feel it's going to benefit them and not us.. Any economics experts?

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/300309160/wealthy-investors-due-to-arrive-on-new-border-exemption

Fred99
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  #2708829 18-May-2021 08:32
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Batman: Border exemption for a handful of wealthy investors

Somehow I feel it's going to benefit them and not us.. Any economics experts?

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/300309160/wealthy-investors-due-to-arrive-on-new-border-exemption

 

Probably mainly belongs in the politics thread.

 

"Under both programmes, officials are able to identify and invite key people from companies to visit here in order to facilitate high-value international investment and technology expertise into the country."

 

It probably does meet requirements for exclusion from release of information under OIA, but IMO they should give more details about what they're planning than what we're getting.

 

A mega casino using robotic croupiers and holographic real Elvis shows might fit their loose definition.  NZ's had a bit of a history of selling off resources and assets for short-term gain - but to the long-term detriment of NZers.


Scott3
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  #2708848 18-May-2021 09:55
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sbiddle:

 

The question that should be asked however is at what point our Covid strategy has to evolve, and whether we have the ability to ramp up at short notice if we end up like Singapore or Taiwan are now with multiple breakouts of CT.

 

Data showed a better immune/antibody response with a longer duration between first and second doses with the AZ vaccine. Data from the UK on Friday showed that at least in elderly that with same applies with Pfizer.

 

Singapore are currently looking at moving to a longer period with the current outbreaks as many now believe the UK strategy of trying to get the first jab into as many arms as possible is the best.

 

 

My guess would there there would only be opportunity for a minor ramp up in response to an outbreak. We are still supply constrained, and I don't think having an outbreak would get us extra priory with our orders (If it did most of the rest of the world would be jumping us in the queue). Probably hard to ramp up a the same time as social distancing measures are put in place too.

 

Regardless we are way below the level of vaccination required for herd immunity, so any outbreak will need to be dealt with the way we did in the past outbreaks anyway.

 

 

 

Regarding increasing the vaccine spacing it seemed really reckless when the UK rolled this out untested, but the evidence now seems to be backing this approach. I might run 4 or 5 weeks when it comes to my turn.


tieke
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  #2708863 18-May-2021 10:23
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Batman: Border exemption for a handful of wealthy investors

Somehow I feel it's going to benefit them and not us.. Any economics experts?

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/300309160/wealthy-investors-due-to-arrive-on-new-border-exemption

 

There's only a few of them and they've still got to go through MIQ, so it won't affect our Covid response. There was talk of more people establishing server farms etc in New Zealand due to our perceived stability - only makes sense they want to get a representative to get a final take on the situation before committing millions.


Oblivian
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  #2708903 18-May-2021 11:01
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I wonder if Gabe Newell is now part of that list. He was thinking about it after being stuck here.

 

But it's not an isolated case. It's just come out in Australia that the Aussie open stars had basically a 100% Exemption rate. We of course had the cricket (who we're lead to believe arranged it to as a no-burden tours?).

 

And as a result of India closing up the IPL both countries players are coming back to welcoming arms again or re-joining the NZ squad despite being lone-wolf arrangements to leave country at your own peril initially.

 

In the first few cases, it's likely the economics, not the players, or risk evaluation they're looking at... 


Fred99
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  #2708920 18-May-2021 11:41
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Scott3:

 

Regarding increasing the vaccine spacing it seemed really reckless when the UK rolled this out untested, but the evidence now seems to be backing this approach. I might run 4 or 5 weeks when it comes to my turn.

 

 

AFAIK the evidence is still "in vitro" measurement of antibody neutralisation which looks very good, but it's not from clinical trials. 

 

Drug/vaccine makers take a conservative best practice approach based on clinical trial, so the on-label use is based on spacing from that trial data - not what they subsequently think may be an improvement when there's no trial data to support it.  It looks good for extended spacing, but I expect safety would be a concern - extending spacing without trial data still means taking a punt that nothing bad will happen. The chance of that may be incredibly remote or rare if it was to happen, but the public (and some official) reaction to the rare clotting issue with the AZ vaccine threw a big spanner in the works - the harm of that reaction far outweighed the risk.


Dratsab
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  #2708960 18-May-2021 13:13
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On2or3wheels: How are people finding the side effects after the 2nd jab? In Oz (sorry for all the Australian news), people requiring a day off work after it is running at 22%. 

 

I had a moderately achy deltoid muscle for a couple of days. I know people who've had to have time off work, a chap in the office developed a major headache. It's one of those YMMV things, so not worth worrying about other peoples experiences - yours will be what it is :-)


Batman

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