2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2766571 25-Aug-2021 16:35

Ok, so Bloomfield keeps telling us the increase in case numbers is not exponential. On what basis he is determining that?

Plot below compares the current NZ & NSW and recent QLD delta outbreaks.

Its a semi-log plot so a rising straight line = exponential growth.

Seems rather early in the piece to be confident the growth in our numbers is "not exponential"?

I sincerely hope he is right. It is early days and our 'early' L4 lockdown should help. However, as of now the numbers do not look that great compared to even NSW.

The trend in numbers over the next few days will be very interesting.

NB: NZ data as per MOH csv file, with dates = 'Report date'. For NSW data (ex similar NSW govt dataset) dates are 'Notification date'

Edit to note that it is the part of the trend above ~10-20 cases that is of interest. NSW trend looks alarmingly linear

Should have noted that the case numbers are cases per day, not cumulative values. Also, no population adjustment has been made.

ezbee

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#2766577 25-Aug-2021 16:49

Perhaps
The problem with daily numbers at start of this is that our testing capacity gets swamped with many people that are NOT a priority to test.
So it takes quite a few days before that wave might settle down.
The time series of the data ends up off a few days, maybe quite a few days.

It was even to the point they put up a few secret test sites, even then people would drive past, spot a test site and invite themselves.
Stricter triage would help, but then you get Entitled Argumentative holding everyone up even more,
and you need many more security guards you don't have.
In one way its good to have a broader view of community, just not all at once.

DS248

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#2766580 25-Aug-2021 16:57

ezbee:

Perhaps
The problem with daily numbers at start of this is that our testing capacity gets swamped with many people that are NOT a priority to test.
So it takes quite a few days before that wave might settle down.
The time series of the data ends up off a few days, maybe quite a few days.

..

Yes, just like in NSW and QLD

Fred99

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#2766581 25-Aug-2021 16:58

Yeah - probably a bit hard to tell unless there's additional data.

You can probably forget the first few days as being a (low) start point. There were more cases for sure, they just hadn't been located and tested positive. Then how much of the daily increase reported was "new cases" that may have been identified as "probables" several days ago, tested several days ago, but only reported in the 24 hours before the 1pm announcements.

Fred99

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#2766584 25-Aug-2021 17:13

Had my first jab this morning. Scheduled for 10:40, actual 10:43, out of there with my covid card before 11.

They had a QR scanner that I thought might work on the link from the confirmation text, but apparently that system wasn't working. Not sure if it was at their end or MoH end.

I was going to say no reaction at all yet from my first shot, but if I press hard on the area where the jab went in I can feel now that it's very slightly tender, otherwise I wouldn't have noticed.

DS248

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#2766588 25-Aug-2021 17:40

Fred99:

Yeah - probably a bit hard to tell unless there's additional data.

You can probably forget the first few days as being a (low) start point. There were more cases for sure, they just hadn't been located and tested positive. Then how much of the daily increase reported was "new cases" that may have been identified as "probables" several days ago, tested several days ago, but only reported in the 24 hours before the 1pm announcements.

The NZ numbers plotted are as per the spreadsheet, which are different from the values announced at daily 1 pm.

The dates in the spreadsheet are 'report date', whatever that is.

For example, the values for 'report dates' 17 - 20 Aug are: 5, 4, 16, 20.

The corresponding numbers reported in the 1 pm briefings for those days were: 1, 4 (+2+3)*, 11, 11 (-1)**.

* advised later in the day

** border case from previous day removed from cluster total

One other point I should have mentioned, the numbers plotted for all three territories exclude identified imported / overseas travel cases.

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Handle9

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#2766589 25-Aug-2021 17:41

DS248:

Ok, so Bloomfield keeps telling us the increase in case numbers is not exponential. On what basis he is determining that?

Plot below compares the current NZ & NSW and recent QLD delta outbreaks.

Its a semi-log plot so a rising straight line = exponential growth.

Seems rather early in the piece to be confident the growth in our numbers is "not exponential"?

I sincerely hope he is right. It is early days and our 'early' L4 lockdown should help. However, as of now the numbers do not look that great compared to even NSW.

The trend in numbers over the next few days will be very interesting.

NB: NZ data as per MOH csv file, with dates = 'Report date'. For NSW data (ex similar NSW govt dataset) dates are 'Notification date'

Edit to note that it is the part of the trend above ~10-20 cases that is of interest. NSW trend looks alarmingly linear

Should have noted that the case numbers are cases per day, not cumulative values. Also, no population adjustment has been made.

It's pretty clearly exponential at the moment, as you would expect - there was no lockdown and minimal testing.

Give it another week before finding too many conclusions.

DS248

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#2766599 25-Aug-2021 18:02

Handle9:

DS248:

Ok, so Bloomfield keeps telling us the increase in case numbers is not exponential. On what basis he is determining that?

Plot below compares the current NZ & NSW and recent QLD delta outbreaks.

Its a semi-log plot so a rising straight line = exponential growth.

Seems rather early in the piece to be confident the growth in our numbers is "not exponential"?

I sincerely hope he is right. It is early days and our 'early' L4 lockdown should help. However, as of now the numbers do not look that great compared to even NSW.

The trend in numbers over the next few days will be very interesting.

NB: NZ data as per MOH csv file, with dates = 'Report date'. For NSW data (ex similar NSW govt dataset) dates are 'Notification date'

Edit to note that it is the part of the trend above ~10-20 cases that is of interest. NSW trend looks alarmingly linear

Should have noted that the case numbers are cases per day, not cumulative values. Also, no population adjustment has been made.

It's pretty clearly exponential at the moment, as you would expect - there was no lockdown and minimal testing.

Give it another week before finding too many conclusions.

The initial reason for plotting the data was Bloomfield's (repeated) claim that the growth in numbers was "not exponential".

As I (and now you) said, it is too early to tell (but yes the current trend is )

Comparison with NSW was an afterthought. Interesting though.

tdgeek

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#2766602 25-Aug-2021 18:05

Scott3:

Actual order is here:

https://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2021/0210/latest/whole.html#LMS536774

Politicians & covid-19 website seems to often either over simplify, or get it outright wrong. Police can only enforce the order, not what politicians say at press conferences...

You will see under section 16 (e), "other recreation" is allowed, given the listed conditions are met.

Thanks

16e

to undertake exercise or other recreation if—

(I) it is done in an outdoor place appropriate for that kind of exercise or recreation that is readily accessible (including by using their vehicle) from their home or place of residence; and

(ii) it is done in compliance with the requirements that relate to physical distancing (see clause 17) and the prohibition against gathering in outdoor places (see clause 21); and

(iii) it does not involve swimming, surfing, scuba-diving, water-based activities involving boating, sailing boats, motorised craft, or motorised equipment, hunting in motorised vehicles, tramping, or flying manned aircraft; and

(iv) it does not involve any other activities that expose the participant to danger or may require search and rescue services:

Whitebaiting is covered. You are setting nets in the water, and white poles. In a flowing river.

tdgeek

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#2766620 25-Aug-2021 18:08

mattwnz:
HelloThere: Rule change for hot drinks

Seems to be a bit if confusion lately.

Sounds like a loop hole. Nzers love to find loopholes. But people should know what is right and wrong, and food shops and cafes are not open. Even for takeaway.

Probably everyone. Its a bit poor. If AKL gets extended past the 3 to 4 week expectation, then the Govt needs to man up like NSW has and passively blame the people. But its obviously not all the people, but some of the people have caused lockdowns to extend.

Technofreak

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#2766622 25-Aug-2021 18:10

Fred99:

Had my first jab this morning. Scheduled for 10:40, actual 10:43, out of there with my covid card before 11.

They had a QR scanner that I thought might work on the link from the confirmation text, but apparently that system wasn't working. Not sure if it was at their end or MoH end.

I was going to say no reaction at all yet from my first shot, but if I press hard on the area where the jab went in I can feel now that it's very slightly tender, otherwise I wouldn't have noticed.

That wasn't working when I had mine a couple of months ago either.

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tdgeek

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#2766623 25-Aug-2021 18:15

DS248:

Ok, so Bloomfield keeps telling us the increase in case numbers is not exponential. On what basis he is determining that?

1. Is 41 to 48 to 62 exponential?

2. Irregardless of the lockdown strategy, you will always get higher cases early on as they are pre lockdown cases. So, normal.

We are 8 days in, incubation or the "standard" lockdown process is 14 days to cover off the pre lockdown cases (which happen regardless) and look for a levelling off when you mandated lockdown. If I was infected the day before lockdown, when do I bother to realise that I should be tested? If I am symptomatic a few days later at best. Id let the 14 days ride out and see what pans out.

tdgeek

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#2766626 25-Aug-2021 18:17

DS248:

ezbee:

Perhaps
The problem with daily numbers at start of this is that our testing capacity gets swamped with many people that are NOT a priority to test.
So it takes quite a few days before that wave might settle down.
The time series of the data ends up off a few days, maybe quite a few days.

..

Yes, just like in NSW and QLD

NSW has settled down, 800 per day. But its hard to correlate that to us or anyone as there lockdown was a joke, /horsebolted, so its a different animal. Plus now they advocate forget the numbers just get vaccinated.

Fred99

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#2766627 25-Aug-2021 18:17

Technofreak:

Fred99:

Had my first jab this morning. Scheduled for 10:40, actual 10:43, out of there with my covid card before 11.

They had a QR scanner that I thought might work on the link from the confirmation text, but apparently that system wasn't working. Not sure if it was at their end or MoH end.

I was going to say no reaction at all yet from my first shot, but if I press hard on the area where the jab went in I can feel now that it's very slightly tender, otherwise I wouldn't have noticed.

That wasn't working when I had mine a couple of months ago either.

If there was a problem with that system then they could have changed the text message confirmation to include your NHI number. Not a major problem though - if I'd had my NHI committed to memory or on the message, it would have only saved 5 seconds.

mattwnz

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#2766628 25-Aug-2021 18:25

tdgeek:

Probably everyone. Its a bit poor. If AKL gets extended past the 3 to 4 week expectation, then the Govt needs to man up like NSW has and passively blame the people. But its obviously not all the people, but some of the people have caused lockdowns to extend.

Last time there were certain activities held that prolonged the lockdown, and resulting in new infection clusters appearing after lockdown . I think they are worried that will occur again reading between the lines.

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