2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 1754 | 1755 | 1756 | 1757 | 1758 | 1759 | 1760 | 1761 | 1762 | 1763 | 1764 | ... | 2422

Max
1772 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

Subscriber

#2781260 20-Sep-2021 17:44

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300411509/covid19-pair-caught-at-auckland-border-with-100k-and-a-boot-full-of-kfc

Pillocks of the day goes to...

Ramblings from a mysterious lady who's into tech. Warning I may often create zingers.

Senecio

2710 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Lifetime subscriber

#2781263 20-Sep-2021 17:56

JPNZ:

No answer to my question then? Will New Zealand eliminate Delta and for my clarification "elimination is complete removal" so no active cases within the NZ community excluding MIQ?

I don't believe your terminology is incorrect. Complete removal is eradication not elimination.

heavenlywild

5059 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

#2781268 20-Sep-2021 18:26

Senecio:

JPNZ:

No answer to my question then? Will New Zealand eliminate Delta and for my clarification "elimination is complete removal" so no active cases within the NZ community excluding MIQ?

I don't believe your terminology is incorrect. Complete removal is eradication not elimination.

"Elimination" is just a word they use to confuse people to suit their changing strategy.

Buying a Tesla? Use my Tesla referral link and we both get discounts and credits.

ezbee

2405 posts

Uber Geek

#2781269 20-Sep-2021 18:29

Its a pretty easy prediction...
When levels change in Auckland there will closely spaced queues/mobs collecting their takeaways.
Definitely not safe, I'd like to be wrong.

Pillock runner up seems to be...
The guy with the electric car saying he needs to cross the boarder to charge the car.
Gives a destination that does not have a car charger. The article did not say what make it was.
Maybe he should have gone with the dog ate my permit.

ajobbins

5052 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

#2781274 20-Sep-2021 19:09

I'm very surprised at the move to L3 today. Auckland has had cases every day out in the community while infectious creating exposure sites. It's hard to get the right numbers from the way the govt presents them, but even if you have 100% of cases 'linked', every day that new exposure sites are being created are a risk that you will have more community spread.

The numbers have plateaued, but will they drop under L3? Maybe - L3 is essentially 'L4 with takeways' anyway, but I think the greater danger comes from the mind shift to L3. People are excited about it, even if it doesn't mean that much. Will that lead to people taking a more relaxed view of the rules given the impression that it's 'under control'? I think that's certainly a risk.

To me this does signal a subtle move further away from elimination. As pointed out, elimination has always been about zero tolerance of cases rather than zero cases - but a relaxing of rules while you have really had no significant improvement in the state of spread for 1-2 weeks and daily community exposure sites does not align with a zero tolerance strategy that would relax rules.

Getting back to zero cases is still possible, but will require a very high level of compliance from Auckland over the next couple of weeks and is a massive risk, IMO.

Twitter: ajobbins

ajobbins

5052 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

#2781279 20-Sep-2021 19:21

Here are the numbers from VIC when our latest outbreak ramped up.

14 days out, at essentially the equivalent of NZ Level 2, VIC saw numbers drop from 23 a day to zero on Aug 4th.

It's very easy to get complacent with low numbers and outbreaks can seed when you think you have got all the clusters.

NZ numbers are currently higher than VIC in late July. It's likely that the ramp up after Aug 4th was already well seeded in the days/weeks before, it just wasn't detected.

The reality is that unless you have a good couple of weeks where you can be reasonably confident that you do not have any exposure in the community, the risk that things will flare up are extremely high.

NZ is at 22 cases today, not unlike VIC's 23 on July 21. If your case numbers follower a similar trajectory over the next 2 weeks (even to zero), and you dropped down to L2, it's very possible your experience would mirror that of us here in VIC. By 20th August we were up to 57 cases. A month later (today), we had 567.

Twitter: ajobbins

andrew75

145 posts

Master Geek

ID Verified

#2781280 20-Sep-2021 19:27

My prediction, we'll be in level 3 for months. Or at least as long as it takes the powers that be to decide we've met the vaccination target (that they hope) won't result in the NZ healthcare system being overrun by out of control covid.

Equinox IT

Cloud spending continues to surge globally, but most organisations haven’t made the changes necessary to maximise the value and cost-efficiency benefits of their cloud investments. Download the whitepaper From Overspend to Advantage now.

JPNZ

1542 posts

Uber Geek

#2781281 20-Sep-2021 19:28

Re: the “level 3 is level 4 with takeaways” is such a throw away line. Considering all construction and manufacturing can restart under level 3. Add to that all the businesses that can open while offering click and collect.

On top of the change in mindset as you said, let’s see what two weeks brings.

Panasonic 65GZ1000, Onkyo RZ730, Atmos 5.1.2, AppleTV 4K, Nest Mini's, PS5, PS3, MacbookPro, iPad Pro, Apple watch SE2, iPhone 15+

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2781287 20-Sep-2021 19:49

heavenlywild:

"Elimination" is just a word they use to confuse people to suit their changing strategy.

No it isn't. It's been consistent even though strategy has had to change, because the virus changed, and the global situation changes, and our vaccination rate keeps changing.

If you're confused, you haven't been paying attention.

rugrat

3106 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2781292 20-Sep-2021 20:12

JPNZ: Re: the “level 3 is level 4 with takeaways” is such a throw away line. Considering all construction and manufacturing can restart under level 3. Add to that all the businesses that can open while offering click and collect.

On top of the change in mindset as you said, let’s see what two weeks brings.

Yep. From what I observed in Christchurch when dropped to L3, just about everybody was back at work except for places that serve indoors I.e Restaurants, Gyms etc.

Lot more people coming into contact with each other so more chances for Virus to spread.

Hopefully no undetected spread, see what happens.

Scott3

3963 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2781348 20-Sep-2021 22:03

Pritty much as predicted from the press conference.

Auckland moveing down alert levels (little bit of Waikato added to the auckland zone), and dialog of shrinking the outbreak, despite it seeming unlikely.

Journalists trying to catch the officials out in questions managed to get a statement that they are not expecting zero cases, rather were having a zero tolerance for cases when found.

Dialog makes sense. Don't want to declare failure yet. would cause people to give up on the containment measures an more spread. Buying an extra few weeks with low case numbers to get more vaccination done etc. is nice even if case numbers are slowly climbing. Also avoids pissing off the 60% of NZ not in the Auckland zone. And in the unlikely event we do get down to zero, it can be claimed. Little reason to admit defeat too eairly.

Main surprise was that anybody over 65 and un-vaccinated "shouldn't" leave home any more other than for medical care or vaccination. Will be interesting to see if this is a recommendation, or it will be included as a requirement when the order comes out. Really big call, and seems to clash with reassurance that we aren't having spread at supermarket / Pharmacies, and are expecting case numbers to continue to decline. However ultimately we want all this age group vaccinated ASAP regardless if we have any cases as they are the most likely to die. Bit harsh on those who can't get vaccinated for medical reasons.

mattwnz:

[re keeping covid-19 out of the south island under a suppression strategy via domestic MIQ]

What makes the SI any different to the rest of NZ that is covid free? Eg Wellington region , where there are only 2 ways in.

In short it is just way easier.

Drawing a hard boundary across the north island anywhere is going to to cause boundry issues. Court ordered care arrangement that by people that are 10mins apart that is broken by a hard border, people with complex health needs cut off from the hospital that they normally go to for that etc.

Way easier to enforce the cook straight. - you won't have people hiking through the bush to evade.

South island is pretty autonomous. It has it's own distribution centers, Airports, hospitals etc. Cook straight can close due to weather, so not much reliance in in just in time logistics.

Coastal shipping is already unaccompanied freight - Ships crew don't escort the freight once it leaves the ship. Truck and rail going on the ferry seem to be often consolidated into larger unit's, and unaccompanied freight is something already catered for. Existing terminals provide infrastructure to deal with unaccompanied freight.

All up it is just more workable.

mattwnz

20141 posts

Uber Geek

#2781358 20-Sep-2021 23:03

andrew75:
My prediction, we'll be in level 3 for months. Or at least as long as it takes the powers that be to decide we've met the vaccination target (that they hope) won't result in the NZ healthcare system being overrun by out of control covid.

The difference between level 4 and 3 is minimal for most, as people still need to stay home to save lives. But the risk increases. I can see It going back up to level 4 again if numbers rise over the next few weeks. They have had to back track before due to going down to early. You can’t take shortcuts with Covid. IMO they should have focused in on the problem areas and earlier. Putting cases into the Jetpark helped by they needed to do more to stop bubble mingling. Some people will now take liberties with the level drop. Wouldn’t be surprised to see reports of House parties etc.

Dratsab

3946 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2781371 20-Sep-2021 23:58

heavenlywild: "Elimination" is just a word they use to confuse people to suit their changing strategy.

It's only some people that get confused. The rest of us do just fine.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2781374 21-Sep-2021 00:04

Pfizer clinical trials show that their vaccine is safe and produces a strong immune response in 5-11 YOs. Two dose, with 1/3 of the mRNA of adult dose. They'll be applying for FDA approval. They're also trialling 1/10th adult dose for 1-5 YOs.

This on top of FDA being likely to approve boosters for over 65 or vulnerable in the next couple of days is good. Children are now a significant vector for delta in the US. While only a few tens of thousands have been hospitalized, they're a disproportionately high % of new cases

Scott3

3963 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2781375 21-Sep-2021 00:45

heavenlywild: "Elimination" is just a word they use to confuse people to suit their changing strategy.

CDC definitions:

Control: The reduction of disease incidence, prevalence, morbidity or mortality to a locally acceptable level as a result of deliberate efforts; continued intervention measures are required to maintain the reduction. Example: diarrhoeal diseases.

Elimination of disease: Reduction to zero of the incidence of a specified disease in a defined geographical area as a result of deliberate efforts; continued intervention measures are required. Example: neonatal tetanus.

Elimination of infections: Reduction to zero of the incidence of infection caused by a specific agent in a defined geographical area as a result of deliberate efforts; continued measures to prevent re-establishment of transmission are required. Example: measles, poliomyelitis.

Eradication: Permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of infection caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts; intervention measures are no longer needed. Example: smallpox.

Extinction: The specific infectious agent no longer exists in nature or in the laboratory. Example: none.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su48a7.htm

Reduction to zero seems to feature fairly heavily under elimination.

But I remember this exact being discussed at length over a year ago, so I think we are stuck with the NZ usage of the term... Where Elimination means Zero tolerance.

1 | ... | 1754 | 1755 | 1756 | 1757 | 1758 | 1759 | 1760 | 1761 | 1762 | 1763 | 1764 | ... | 2422