2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2782043 22-Sep-2021 10:32

heavenlywild:

Agree with your interpretation.

Looks like PM Ardern and the ministers are refusing to tell the frank truth. Dr Bloomfield must be frustrated if he says zero cases is difficult while Ardern keeps on saying it is still on the cards.

The PM is losing credibility every single day.

Why don't you take your delusional and moronic comments to the politics forum.

Sick of the political crap here. Bugger off.

Jas777

838 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2782048 22-Sep-2021 10:51

Buster:

At this point I am not optimistic we will rid ourselves of Covid this year and into 2022 either. Pleasantly surprised at the Govt remaining reasonably firm and trying to stay the course. At least good decisions are being made in a bad situation. I mean, they got some/most of it right.

It's like we are in this brief period with an opportunity to vaccinate for all we are worth (hopefully to a lower age), but it's never going to be quite enough, because we won't get 100% uptake and also the vaccine isn't 100% effective against the changing Virus.

Some (many more than now) are going to be in a world of hurt as we enter the new normal.

Never getting rid of Covid. All they are doing is stopping it for a period of time. The only time Covid could have been stopped was late 2019.

It is in the world and it has developed for humans. All we humans can do now is develop vaccines and treatments and hope that the effect on humans lessens.

Never been able to eradicate the common cold so why do we think we can eradicate this?

alasta

6703 posts

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#2782051 22-Sep-2021 10:58

Jas777:

Never been able to eradicate the common cold so why do we think we can eradicate this?

Clinically speaking there is no such thing as the 'common cold'. It's a blanket term applied to a variety of viruses, mainly rhinoviruses, but it includes the four endemic coronaviruses.

I see covid-19 as being a bit more like polio or measles. It will never be globally eradicated but over a long period of time it will be slowly brought under control within the developed world.

Oblivian

7296 posts

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#2782054 22-Sep-2021 11:05

Jas777:
It is in the world and it has developed for humans. All we humans can do now is develop vaccines and treatments and hope that the effect on humans lessens.

Never been able to eradicate the common cold so why do we think we can eradicate this?

I think our lock down stats during winter shows you we could. If people actually made the effort and they were combined or unified in it. But there are too many selfless arrogants to get everyone to work together to.

Scott3

3963 posts

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#2782061 22-Sep-2021 11:18

sbiddle:

I haven't watched the 1pm presentations for quite a few days now but I'm curious if the PM is still quoting the total % of those who have been jabbed + those with bookings? That data has been tainted for weeks now, and I'm really surprised she was still using it last week.

With so many people not cancelling their bookings after being jabbed at drive up locations and anti vaxxers trying to undermine the system by poisoning the data first dose bookings are a bit of a shambles now.

I wonder if or when they'll move the default back to 3 weeks, as with no shortage of vaccines now our priority right now needs to be to get everybody with two jabs rather than first jabs into as many people as we can.

They havn't mentioned the or booked number for a while.

They have been mentioning the percentage of eligible in Auckland that are vaccinated. I think it was 79% yesterday (vs 74% for the country as a whole). Given that vaccine appointments have only been available in a resonable time, and walk in's welcomed for a couple of weeks, 79% is pretty impressive. They have a streach goal of 90% for auckland when they review the alert level 3 in just under 2 weeks.

Each day a particular group is singled out and asked to be vaccinated "TODAY" - via drive in or walk up. Two days ago it was the remaining 23k odd 65+ year olds in auckland who have not yet had a dose. They were asked to stay home (other than accessing medical services for vaccination) untill they are vaccinated. Yesterday it ever person in Auckland that will be returning to work under level 3.

The or booked number isn't that impressive to quote any more. only 5% points above eligible vaccinate, and growing super slowly. I don't think anti-vax people would have wanted that number inflated, but suspect as you say there are a lot of people who did walk ups that didn't bother to cancel (perhaps assuming it would be done automatically), and hence were double counted until their appointments expire.

Discussed moving to 3 weeks a few pages back. In short my thoughts are not yet:

No hurry, based on NSW it will take 2 months for our outbreak to get out of hand. - hopefully slower due to our higher vaccination rates vs them 3 months ago.
Vital importance to focus on first doses right now - I am picking it is going to get out of hand in early summer. Need maximum number of people fully vaccinated then.
We are going to have an epic rush on 2nd doses in about 2 weeks time (6 weeks after those massive weeks. We have plenty of capacity to deal with this, but wouldn't want to try to add more pressure of there weeks worth of people bringing appointments forward to stack on top of this. Need very easy walk in experience for people doing first doses, so don't want long queues etc.
In 4 - 6 weeks, we will have abundant vaccination capacity, and if the situation is getting bad, could hit the button on getting people to bring forward second appointments then.
Data I have seen suggests 6 or 8 weeks offers better protection than 3 weeks.
Confused messaging. Only recently did we change the recommendation from 3 weeks to 6 weeks. Changing it back to three weeks when the governments message on the outbreak is "We have got this under control" is clashing and messy...

Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2782064 22-Sep-2021 11:28

Oblivian:
I think our lock down stats during winter shows you we could. If people actually made the effort and they were combined or unified in it. But there are too many selfless arrogants to get everyone to work together to.

Some years I don't get a cold anyway, but "can confirm" I haven't had a cold or cough this year or last.

Scott3

3963 posts

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#2782066 22-Sep-2021 11:33

Oblivian:
Jas777:

It is in the world and it has developed for humans. All we humans can do now is develop vaccines and treatments and hope that the effect on humans lessens.

Never been able to eradicate the common cold so why do we think we can eradicate this?

I think our lock down stats during winter shows you we could. If people actually made the effort and they were combined or unified in it. But there are too many selfless arrogants to get everyone to work together to.

CDC definition in epidemiology context:

Eradication: Permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of infection caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts; intervention measures are no longer needed. Example: smallpox.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su48a7.htm

There was a small window in 2019 where covid-19 could have been contained in Wuhan and eradicated. But zero change of that now. NZ could eliminate it again if we were willing to pay the price (many weeks of alert level 4, or alert level 5), but no chance for may poorer nations (Fiji etc.)

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Jas777

838 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2782067 22-Sep-2021 11:33

Oblivian:
Jas777:

It is in the world and it has developed for humans. All we humans can do now is develop vaccines and treatments and hope that the effect on humans lessens.

Never been able to eradicate the common cold so why do we think we can eradicate this?

I think our lock down stats during winter shows you we could. If people actually made the effort and they were combined or unified in it. But there are too many selfless arrogants to get everyone to work together to.

There has been 5 lockdowns in Auckland in 18 months, how many more do you think it can do? Because the virus will get back into Auckland again.

What do you suggest to get everyone to work together? Maybe we could get it that everyone's salary is paid into a pool and everyone gets an equal share? That would be a combined effort.

ezbee

2405 posts

Uber Geek

#2782069 22-Sep-2021 11:34

Jas777

SARS-Cov2 is not the common cold though, so there is good chance to suppress much like we might measles.
We have not eradicated measles, but with continuing vaccine development and vaccination of 92% to 95% (A number of places are 99% ),
its under control to where its not a major issue. Fall under 90% and yep you are in trouble.

We have also not spent much money on colds as the effect on us is small to negligible.
So we have developed much more useful vaccines like the very successful one for HPV.
Our failure was to give up on funding SARS research when SARS1 peterd out, and MERs stayed with camels.

I guess we won't do that again and be in a better position when SARS3 pops up, and one research branch is Pan-Coronavirus vaccines.
Technologies we have developed for mRNA as well as having promise for cancer treatment will hopefully get us a quick response to next Flu as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold

Well over 200 virus strains are implicated in causing the common cold, with rhinoviruses, coronaviruses, adenoviruses and enteroviruses being the most common.

DS248

1691 posts

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#2782070 22-Sep-2021 11:37

Buster:

...

Some years I don't get a cold anyway, but "can confirm" I haven't had a cold or cough this year or last.

Don't have children or grandchildren at pre- or primary school then? 😉

MikeB4

18435 posts

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#2782073 22-Sep-2021 11:46

Buster:

Some years I don't get a cold anyway, but "can confirm" I haven't had a cold or cough this year or last.

I have not had a cold or Flu for several years. I have the Flu vaccine every year and have done so for years. There is a strict rule at our home, if you are sick or been near sick folk don't visit and this has been in place for years. We have sanitiser at the door and have done so way prior Covid 19.

Oblivian

7296 posts

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#2782075 22-Sep-2021 11:48

Jas777:
There has been 5 lockdowns in Auckland in 18 months, how many more do you think it can do? Because the virus will get back into Auckland again.

What do you suggest to get everyone to work together? Maybe we could get it that everyone's salary is paid into a pool and everyone gets an equal share? That would be a combined effort.

You are thinking too small focused and local again. Similar mistake most kiws are doing. Re read, and apply to the global context I was intending.

The 'flu'. Is Imported. Every year. It doesn't magically appear here. We, locally, locked it out with border measures. And prevented transfer with other measures. As did many other nations the past 2 years. But not all.

Apply that to covid. It didn't fly. It hitched a ride. Since then, globally, we have found solutions, that has been applied locally with success.

As seen by other nations. Unless they all do. We're at their mercy.

Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2782091 22-Sep-2021 11:50

DS248:

Don't have children or grandchildren at pre- or primary school then? 😉

Three grandchildren. Elder two are primary age, but they live 3 hours away.

DS248

1691 posts

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Lifetime subscriber

#2782096 22-Sep-2021 11:53

Buster:

DS248:

Don't have children or grandchildren at pre- or primary school then? 😉

Three grandchildren. Elder two are primary age, but they live 3 hours away.

Ah, yes. That would help. Ten minutes away alters the equation!

Jas777

838 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2782101 22-Sep-2021 12:05

Oblivian:
Jas777:

There has been 5 lockdowns in Auckland in 18 months, how many more do you think it can do? Because the virus will get back into Auckland again.

What do you suggest to get everyone to work together? Maybe we could get it that everyone's salary is paid into a pool and everyone gets an equal share? That would be a combined effort.

You are thinking too small focused and local again. Similar mistake most kiws are doing. Re read, and apply to the global context I was intending.

The 'flu'. Is Imported. Every year. It doesn't magically appear here. We, locally, locked it out with border measures. And prevented transfer with other measures. As did many other nations the past 2 years. But not all.

Apply that to covid. It didn't fly. It hitched a ride. Since then, globally, we have found solutions, that has been applied locally with success.

As seen by other nations. Unless they all do. We're at their mercy.

What is your time frame for having these measures?

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