2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2782179 22-Sep-2021 15:27

I assume in Portugal that while cases are high (as vaccine doesnt stop that), hospitisation and deaths are probably 99%, the epidemic of the unvaccinated?

Fred99

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#2782182 22-Sep-2021 15:32

It's pretty hard comparing stats between countries. From what little information I could find, Portugal rolled out Pfizer, AZ, Jansen, and Moderna. They diverted AZ away from general rollout (because overstated clotting risk) to use it only in over 60s earlier this year, so presumably there are many over 60s dosed with two shots of AZ which may have been a pragmatic decision at the time. However it's fairly evident that protection against Delta ~ 6 months from vaccination - is relatively low (compared to Pfizer) across all age groups and even worse in the elderly who've been vaxxed with AZ.

We can do better than that - we've used a better vaccine administered later, don't have a large amount of transmission now and can hopefully keep it at controllable levels, should be able to roll out a booster to at risk groups. But all of this dependent on getting our vaccination rate up. I hope we don't blow the chance.

wellygary

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#2782183 22-Sep-2021 15:33

tdgeek:

I assume in Portugal that while cases are high (as vaccine doesnt stop that), hospitisation and deaths are probably 99%, the epidemic of the unvaccinated?

I'm guessing this too..

This article talks about a breakthrough rate of 36 serious cases amongst over 1 million people who had the single shot J+J jab

https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2021-09-15/41-suspected-cases-of-jansen-vaccine-failure/62392

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#2782184 22-Sep-2021 15:34

It’s a very fine balance - there will be a tipping point where Aucklanders have “had enough”, buck the rules and in the extreme: start committing acts of civil disobedience that we’ve seen in other countries eg. US and Australia.

Fortunately those acts of civil disobedience have been confined to some fairly radical factions but could become more mainstream in the weeks and months to come.

They need to weigh up what is going to cause more unrest in the population: drip feeding information regarding lockdown levels out (where people get frustrated at the lack of transparency) -or- laying all the plans out there (where people just give up because the plan involves too much time in lockdown).

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Fred99

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#2782202 22-Sep-2021 15:46

cokemaster:

They need to weigh up what is going to cause more unrest in the population: drip feeding information regarding lockdown levels out (where people get frustrated at the lack of transparency)

It's not a "lack of transparency" - so much as it's a perceived lack of transparency.

There's no guarantees here, and it's been repeatedly stated that it's an ever changing situation that needs to be responded to based on the best information available at the time.

ezbee

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#2782209 22-Sep-2021 15:53

Portugal as a holiday/retirement spot may something more going on.
How they might count part time citizens and foreigners living there perhaps.

They had 27M tourists in 2019, can't see numbers over the Covid era.
There might also be a multiplier if you go for a freedom day in time for summer holidays/tourists, rather than staged reductions.

Cardiff man's plea after Covid claims three family members
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-58153416

""
Francis Goncalves lost his brother, father and mother all within a week in Portugal after they caught the virus at a family meal.

All three refused to get the jab, and Mr Goncalves blamed misinformation from anti-vaccination campaigners.
""

Graph seems to be going in the right direction now, as are deaths which lag, after a peak in July-Aug
Probably shows you need to open bit by bit cautiously to
be sure you manage hospital resource.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/portugal

mattwnz

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#2782220 22-Sep-2021 16:12

Fred99:

cokemaster:

They need to weigh up what is going to cause more unrest in the population: drip feeding information regarding lockdown levels out (where people get frustrated at the lack of transparency)

It's not a "lack of transparency" - so much as it's a perceived lack of transparency.

There's no guarantees here, and it's been repeatedly stated that it's an ever changing situation that needs to be responded to based on the best information available at the time.

The one thing they aren't saying is what happens when/if vaccination starts to lose it's affect. We are likely going to need boaster shots, and many people may not get those. IMO they don't seem to be looking too far into the future, or if they are, it is not being communicated to us. Elimination at least gives NZ far more choices IMO.

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mattwnz

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#2782222 22-Sep-2021 16:17

tdgeek:

Yes, I picked up on that, Chris H took that over quickly.

It must be frustrating for everyone involved. level 4 lockdown works. Its a 100% solution. Virus starved, game over

BUT it need high compliance otherwise you are emptying a boat taking on 1 litre of water with a 1 litre cup

The large part of Auckland that are probably complying very very well, probably dont need to as its not there, it's in the south, where compliance is lax. Knowing all that they still have to be positive

But they could get tougher with those areas, and provide financial support to them. Many are under huge stress to work. I think they put certain suburbs in parts of Oz into more strict lockdowns. South Australia and Queensland appear to have effectively eliminated Delta, so it is possible, and likewise China are still elimination Covid, rather than relying on vaccines. IMO we need to ensure that the rest of NZ keeps it eliminated, and work on Auckland like it is it's own state.

GV27

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#2782224 22-Sep-2021 16:24

The problem is Auckland is very interconnected. The South is developing at a rapid rate of knots, as is the North West. People commute across the city constantly because they have to buy houses they can afford, not necessarily close to where they work. We also have large parts of the city with industrialization like East Tamaki and parts of the city with way more houses than work places (West Auckland). Just saying "lock down South Auckland" doesn't really cut it when that means you'd have chunks of people working all over the city suddenly unable to commute; and employers have to make specific arrangements around that while others work.

Fred99

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#2782244 22-Sep-2021 17:33

mattwnz:

The one thing they aren't saying is what happens when/if vaccination starts to lose it's affect. We are likely going to need boaster shots, and many people may not get those. IMO they don't seem to be looking too far into the future, or if they are, it is not being communicated to us. Elimination at least gives NZ far more choices IMO.

We've ordered 10M Novavax doses for delivery next year, they have reported remarkable efficacy against delta (but based on antibody levels - not phase 3 clinical trials) when used as a booster.

The US FDA should give approval for Pfizer as a booster for older / vulnerable people any day now. Then I expect Medsafe would approve that use quickly - as we have vaccine available now.

I disagree - they are looking at the future, but much is unknown - nobody has the answer.

ajobbins

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#2782248 22-Sep-2021 17:44

wellygary:

Unless NZ wants to really become a MIQ hermit kingdom we need to move beyond "any case of COVID in the community is a national disaster" if not now then at some point.... the rest of the world has now moved to "living with the disease" including many parts of OZ...

I suspect officials already (now) have the view that a long term hermit kingdom is not viable, even if they are not (really) saying so yet. You do want to hold off from that point of saying "OK, we're certain we can no longer eliminate this" because you will certainly see drops in compliance. The longer you hold the line and buy as much time as you can with restrictions that can be tolerated will mean you likely save some lives than if you admit defeat earlier when less people are vaccinated.

It seems somewhat counter productive to what is, one day or another, a foregone conclusion but I'm sure that this is part of the governments strategy going forward. My perception is that there is a recent subtle shift away from the somewhat less recent (i.e. a few weeks ago) position where the PM and ministers were quite firmly stating that elimination was the goal long term (even after the population was at peak vaccination). I think that was truely their aim and expected it to be possible, but now realise it is not.

I think the challenge is that the longer the government keep telling the public that elimination is achievable, the harder it will be for them when the day comes it is not. It's possible this outbreak is stopped, but I don't think likely. But even if it was, it's only a matter of time until the next one. There has already been a subsequent MIQ leak to the one that caused this outbreak.

I cannot see NZ back to 'Level 1' conditions this side of Christmas, even if you achieve elimination this time - but that is what much of the public expect.

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mattwnz

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#2782252 22-Sep-2021 17:49

Fred99:

they are looking at the future, but much is unknown - nobody has the answer.

That is why I said if they are looking at the future, it isn't being communicated very well, when they seem to be more focused on the now, and the upcoming few months. . That is why elimination provides NZ with far more options, especially if a new variant comes out that is even worse than Delta. The main problem NZ has, above most other OECD countries, is our health systems ability to cope with the additional load. One of those things they should be planning for is increasing the health system and ICU capacity (both equipment and staff), as living with the virus will put additional load on the health system, even with high rates. Currently it will become overloaded with the unvaccinated, unless we get to very high vaccination levels. I heard the MOH DG on NTZB saying he wants everyone to be vaccinated, unless they have a proper reason not to be.

Handle9

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#2782255 22-Sep-2021 18:03

GV27:

The problem is Auckland is very interconnected. The South is developing at a rapid rate of knots, as is the North West. People commute across the city constantly because they have to buy houses they can afford, not necessarily close to where they work. We also have large parts of the city with industrialization like East Tamaki and parts of the city with way more houses than work places (West Auckland). Just saying "lock down South Auckland" doesn't really cut it when that means you'd have chunks of people working all over the city suddenly unable to commute; and employers have to make specific arrangements around that while others work.

When has practicality come into these proposed "solutions?" It's pretty silly really.

tdgeek

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#2782257 22-Sep-2021 18:03

cokemaster: It’s a very fine balance - there will be a tipping point where Aucklanders have “had enough”, buck the rules and in the extreme: start committing acts of civil disobedience that we’ve seen in other countries eg. US and Australia.

Fortunately those acts of civil disobedience have been confined to some fairly radical factions but could become more mainstream in the weeks and months to come.

They need to weigh up what is going to cause more unrest in the population: drip feeding information regarding lockdown levels out (where people get frustrated at the lack of transparency) -or- laying all the plans out there (where people just give up because the plan involves too much time in lockdown).

While I believe Aucklanders have had enough, I also believe they have done extremely well. Where are the cases coming from? A small number of suburbs, not the whole city.

tdgeek

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#2782258 22-Sep-2021 18:06

mattwnz:

The one thing they aren't saying is what happens when/if vaccination starts to lose it's affect. We are likely going to need boaster shots, and many people may not get those. IMO they don't seem to be looking too far into the future, or if they are, it is not being communicated to us. Elimination at least gives NZ far more choices IMO.

Thats speculation, not helpful. It would be nice to look into the future, but last tine I looked, it was unknown. While we can bag our horrible response, as is often the case here, we can learn from what others have failed to do. Its called "buying time"

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