2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2790737 6-Oct-2021 19:07

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

They can pretty much do what they want if conditions dictate it as it is a moving target. Watching the press conference today I think some people still don't understand the difference between elimination and eradication. My understanding is that they are still using the elimination strategy, but the PM said that it is unlikely they will get back down to zero cases. This is despite the media saying elimination is over, which IMO is not good messaging. We still need people following level 3 until vaccinations are high enough to flatten the curve and 'suppress cases'. The PM said that vaccination is showing to cut transmission by about 50%, which is not great. Otherwise we risk becoming another Victoria. But Victoria have ben in lockdowns for nearly a year, whereas NZ lockdowns have been 2-3 months in total.

Maybe that might happen, but we need to follow the math not the emotions or FB

30 cases, no issue. Many to follow are contacts, no issue. 45 I think they said today.

Elimination or eradication? Neither. Hold the cases by suppression until vaccine reach 90%. 97% of all cases this time around are unvaccinated. So, vaccination is the tool going forward.

Math, not emotions and complaints.

The PM said yesterday that vaccination was showing to prevent transmission by 50%. So there are going to be other tools needed, like Mask wearing, contact tracing and social distancing to a degree. I guess they will be tweaking these different tools to control the load on hospitals, once vaccination levels are high enough to move out of level 3.

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#2790739 6-Oct-2021 19:09

wellygary:

Hipkins also stated verbatim today that "We aren't moving away from elimination"

..... The fog of war continues to encompass everything that was once clear...

No, no no. We need 90% vaccines. Until then its all hands on deck. So elimination strategies it is, even though everyone knows it wont happen, to hold hospital beds in check (and that's very comfortable right now) so we can get 90% or thereabouts. As 97% of all cases are unvaccinated, thats the goal.

Handle9

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#2790740 6-Oct-2021 19:10

tdgeek:

Its not increasing. 19 one day 30 the next.

Um....

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#2790744 6-Oct-2021 19:19

KrazyKid:

I'm hoping it says out of the South Island until end of November.

I'm guessing it will stay out of the South Island until the beginning of November

I wouldn't be surprised to see SI cases in October though :(

The plan has to be local lockdowns as it spreads to slow the advance until the end of November when we get close to 90% double vax.
Then it's that new from of level 3 where there shops are open, rapid testing is happening and case numbers start climbing.

If we are lucky they will get a handle on the local cases and be able to move in & out of level 3 in some places.

Personally if you have medical appointments you want to keep/make I would see about bringing them forward if I could.

In many ways we are lucky, School holidays and the summer will act as barriers to slow infection rates while the last of the reluctant people get vaccinated Dec - Jan.

This could have been happening in at the start of winter.

Well said

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#2790745 6-Oct-2021 19:25

Batman:

watching the news - they have changed the vaccination 2nd dose wait period from 6 weeks to 3 weeks

Makes sense now we have more expected spread. Its ALL about vaccines, we are holding on as best we can to reach that level of protection.

cshwone

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#2790746 6-Oct-2021 19:25

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

They can pretty much do what they want if conditions dictate it as it is a moving target. Watching the press conference today I think some people still don't understand the difference between elimination and eradication. My understanding is that they are still using the elimination strategy, but the PM said that it is unlikely they will get back down to zero cases. This is despite the media saying elimination is over, which IMO is not good messaging. We still need people following level 3 until vaccinations are high enough to flatten the curve and 'suppress cases'. The PM said that vaccination is showing to cut transmission by about 50%, which is not great. Otherwise we risk becoming another Victoria. But Victoria have ben in lockdowns for nearly a year, whereas NZ lockdowns have been 2-3 months in total.

Maybe that might happen, but we need to follow the math not the emotions or FB

30 cases, no issue. Many to follow are contacts, no issue. 45 I think they said today.

Elimination or eradication? Neither. Hold the cases by suppression until vaccine reach 90%. 97% of all cases this time around are unvaccinated. So, vaccination is the tool going forward.

Math, not emotions and complaints.

Trouble is that they have being saying those sort of words for weeks now. "We expect xx cases in the next few days due to close contacts/family members"

Trouble is that it has become a rolling number which at some point will get away and I suspect we are seeing the start of that this week.

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#2790747 6-Oct-2021 19:27

cshwone:

Trouble is that they have being saying those sort of words for weeks now. "We expect xx cases in the next few days due to close contacts/family members"

Trouble is that it has become a rolling number which at some point will get away and I suspect we are seeing the start of that this week.

Pretty much. There is clearly geographic spread which implies undetected spread within the currently infected area. You'd have to be naive to expect anything different to what has happened in Australia.

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tdgeek

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#2790748 6-Oct-2021 19:29

Batman:

yes i think this is the correct answer.

been thinking - if they were going to go back to level 4, you'd think that as covid is now spreading 100s of kms north and south of AKL, now would be the time to go to level 4.

since they are not going to level 4 with the cases spreading, why would they wait until cases have spread all around the country to go back to level 4.

second -

6 weeks of level 4 from 1 case in AKL ended up nowhere - so going back to level 4 because cases are all over the country, is unlikely to get cases to zero, it will be to keep the hospital corridors clear as you've put it

Level 4 doesn't work due to non compliance. 97% of cases are non vaccinated, so we vaccinate. It would have been nice to contain AKL, but that hasn't happened, so we vaccinate.

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#2790749 6-Oct-2021 19:31

mattwnz:

Clover Park resident says lockdown breaches are ‘out of control’

They were always out of control. So here we are, but its not 19 cases today and 50 next week and 150 the week after. Due to the lack of compliance, many cases are close contacts not 150 randoms all over the place, thats the difference.

TeaLeaf

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#2790750 6-Oct-2021 19:34

mattwnz:

The PM said yesterday that vaccination was showing to prevent transmission by 50%. So there are going to be other tools needed, like Mask wearing, contact tracing and social distancing to a degree. I guess they will be tweaking these different tools to control the load on hospitals, once vaccination levels are high enough to move out of level

Yep, plus "Rapid testing", heck he cost of a $10-20 vile test should even be questioned as part of our strategy.... Heck providing the public with high quality n95 non surgical masks at $30-40 a piece. All that vs the cost of locking down our countries largest city and financial hub.

1. Lockdown

2. Vax (plus boosters, dominant variant in time)

3. Wear a mask EVERYWHERE in public, this part she barely mentions, instead seems to hope people can gauge what 2m looks llike and that is best case for droplets, not aerosols. Masks should be equally drummed into the public as Vax. So many people saying they going to not wear a mask in an office environment. It should be a mandate. No mask, no income. Same as Vax.

4. Rapid testing, provided initially to front line medical workers and people (truckies etc) crossing multiple boundaries for daily use. PCT test follows, then when we have enough of them, to be given to all households with a suspected symptom.

5. Contact trace

Had we stayed at level 4 and implemented both rapid testing and Masks anywhere in public, I am positive we would have been near out of this lockdown by now. But they caved.

Some positives, Im seeing young adults lining up for their first jab.

Negatives, ppl flouting the rules already, my neihbours are meeting up, outside, but no masks and Id say 3m. But its not just them, its in the parks with the kids, its everywhere and NOBODY is wearing a mask while in Public. How can the Govt me taken seriously if they cannot make masks mandatory in public and have dropped the ball on ICU, dropped the ball on rapid testing.

Nobody wants doubt, but this strategy is absurd. We in deep doo doo post covid19 if these are the best minds we have in NZ.

tdgeek

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#2790751 6-Oct-2021 19:35

mattwnz:

The PM said yesterday that vaccination was showing to prevent transmission by 50%. So there are going to be other tools needed, like Mask wearing, contact tracing and social distancing to a degree. I guess they will be tweaking these different tools to control the load on hospitals, once vaccination levels are high enough to move out of level 3.

Yep thats what I feel. Its not out of control Victoria or NSW wise. Masks, scanning, distancing are in place, hospital beds and ICU are very comfortable. Someone posted a couple of days ago that ICU was 30, it was beds that were 30. IIRC today ICU is 7

Its not the ideal plan but its a working plan as I see it. I put that down to Covid fatigue.

tdgeek

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#2790753 6-Oct-2021 19:39

Handle9:

tdgeek:

Its not increasing. 19 one day 30 the next.

Um....

Um what? The cases are all over the place. 19 to 30 is not unusual. And given that we have already been told expect another 45 from the cases they have.

Trend. Forget about daily numbers. Say they tested a lot of close contacts overnight who are in isolation now as they are close contacts, we may get 45 over and above new cases, but they are not a threat.But it might be 58 tomorrow but 45 are already expected and isolated, thats my point.

tdgeek

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#2790754 6-Oct-2021 19:44

cshwone:

Trouble is that they have being saying those sort of words for weeks now. "We expect xx cases in the next few days due to close contacts/family members"

Trouble is that it has become a rolling number which at some point will get away and I suspect we are seeing the start of that this week.

Because so many people have been intermingling, with families (so there goes x number of infections to follow) and neighbours, same deal. Yes it can get away as so many are not complying, but cases arent 19 then 30 then 60 then 110 . Gangs and Tamaki dont help, but is not blowing out as it should really be. As many people are complying, hence 97% of all cases are close contacts and unvaccinated. Yet AKL is quite well vaccinated. In short as I see it, its concentrated, not everywhere

tdgeek

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#2790755 6-Oct-2021 19:46

Handle9:

cshwone:

Trouble is that they have being saying those sort of words for weeks now. "We expect xx cases in the next few days due to close contacts/family members"

Trouble is that it has become a rolling number which at some point will get away and I suspect we are seeing the start of that this week.

Pretty much. There is clearly geographic spread which implies undetected spread within the currently infected area. You'd have to be naive to expect anything different to what has happened in Australia.

That makes me naive, so can you put a rough number where NZ will be in 2 weeks and 4 weeks?

cshwone

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#2790756 6-Oct-2021 19:55

@tdgeek the 7 day trend is upwards so I suspect we will be easily over 100 a day soon. It's only a matter of time.

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