2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2836272 21-Dec-2021 11:30

NSW numbers:

Seems yesterday low case numbers were just a weekend abominably.

For history:

https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/nsw

https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-hospitalised/nsw

Increase in Both hospitalization & people in ICU, despite it being just 7 days since the state broke through 800 daily cases is quite a concern.

39 in ICU in NSW today, and every sign that this number will keep increasing. I suspect that number would put serous stain on the NZ health system if we had the same here.

Looking increasingly clear that NZ cannot replicate the NSW approach to Omicron. It's highly contagious nature seems to outweigh it being potentially milder in terms of hospital load.

frankv

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#2836276 21-Dec-2021 11:40

Batman:

i'm not alarmed. i mentioned earlier that on Friday One news interviewed a kiwi Professor in Melbourne, he said if omicron is super infectious and very mild, then we have a way out of the pandemic by infecting everybody with omicron now and that'll be the end of covid.

obviously it needs to be mild ... so ... who knows.

I'd be cautious about wanting to follow that path.

It depends on the virus not mutating to an even more contagious or more virulent or a vaccine-resistant strain before it dies out. If one should arise, natural selection would then mean the more contagious/vaccine-resistant strain would become dominant. Whilst the trend of mutations is towards less virulent, there can be exceptions, and if the new strain was more virulent, we could be back to square one. More contagious/more virulent/vaccine-resistance would impact the hospitalisation rate, perhaps enough to overwhelm the health system. Mutation becomes more likely if there's a large population of Omicron out in the wild, so the chances of an adverse mutation increase with population size.

So, ideally, the infected population should be kept to a small enough size that there's little chance of a successful mutation.

Also bear in mind that neither vaccination nor infection gives 100% immunity from re-infection. So there's also the possibility that rather than dying out, Omicron could continue to exist for a long time.

Scott3

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#2836281 21-Dec-2021 11:44

networkn:

The alarming thing is that Omicron is now in 89 countries. Why has full MIQ not been introduced again given many people have tested positive after arriving to MIQ despite being double vaccinated and having a negative PCR test prior to departure. It's the most transmissible version yet. The whole wait and see thing isn't going to end well.

I suspect the government has been waiting to see how the response goes in other countries. Wouldn't be great politically to do a knee jerk reaction, and then we find out in a weeks time this is the pandemic ending mild version we have all be hoping for. Should note that lengthening MIQ stays would be require the cancellation of some exiting bookings. Sure to be some serious sob stories amount the cancellations for the media to lap up.

I think Omicron has a shorter incubation period. If this is true, it could mean that increasing MIQ duration form 7 to 14 days would have little impact on risk of a leak into.

And the biggest issue in my mind is that some commemorators are talking about measles level of transmission. Given our vaccines at the effectiveness of the measles vaccine against omicron transmission. I don't think this is something we can realistically keep out with our MIQ system long term.

As such I see the options as:

Hard border Closure - No more passenger arrivals. (perhaps short term, while scramble to get ready for omicron - perhaps by mandating vaccination, and decreasing booster spacing to 3 months like the UK.
Accept that Omicron will leak. Token efforts at keeping it out, buying a time to prepair.

Reality is that we are not going to be able to keep Omicron out all winter, and it would be better for us to face an omicron peak soon, while it is summer, than to hold off another 5 months, and to face it in the depths of winter.

I think 3 doses of pfizer are OK against omicron, so I don't think there is a need to wait for omicron specific vaccines.

Oblivian

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#2836287 21-Dec-2021 12:06

When staff at the hospital in the UK stand on camera and say they have members down sick with it who can't work as a result so under the pump... mild or not. It's wildfire and impacts all aspects of the health system even more than normal. Especially when EVERYONE is meant to be working on a stay home if unwell (or positive).

quickymart

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#2836292 21-Dec-2021 12:23

It might not be that much more mild than Delta:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/18/no-evidence-omicron-milder-than-delta-british-researchers-say

MikeB4

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#2836294 21-Dec-2021 12:24

networkn:

The alarming thing is that Omicron is now in 89 countries. Why has full MIQ not been introduced again given many people have tested positive after arriving to MIQ despite being double vaccinated and having a negative PCR test prior to departure. It's the most transmissible version yet. The whole wait and see thing isn't going to end well.

I suspect that Hipkins will open the border further.

wellygary

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#2836295 21-Dec-2021 12:28

MikeB4:

networkn:

The alarming thing is that Omicron is now in 89 countries. Why has full MIQ not been introduced again given many people have tested positive after arriving to MIQ despite being double vaccinated and having a negative PCR test prior to departure. It's the most transmissible version yet. The whole wait and see thing isn't going to end well.

I suspect that Hipkins will open the border further.

I'm good with WA and the Cook Islands, as for the rest I'll pass :)

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vexxxboy

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#2836299 21-Dec-2021 12:36

in the uk they have had officially 45,000 cases of omicron and only 128 people in Hospital 14 deaths and like South Africa they are not increasing in relation to cases.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Batman

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#2836300 21-Dec-2021 12:36

Scott3:

Looking increasingly clear that NZ cannot replicate the NSW approach to Omicron. It's highly contagious nature seems to outweigh it being potentially milder in terms of hospital load.

If. And a big if. If this becomes a known way out of the pandemic. And your population is freshly vaccinated. And you are the govt. Would you do it.

ezbee

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#2836301 21-Dec-2021 12:36

MikeB4:

networkn:

The alarming thing is that Omicron is now in 89 countries. Why has full MIQ not been introduced again given many people have tested positive after arriving to MIQ despite being double vaccinated and having a negative PCR test prior to departure. It's the most transmissible version yet. The whole wait and see thing isn't going to end well.

I suspect that Hipkins will open the border further.

Some countries make verifiable vaccine certificates difficult.
Even supposedly advanced countries like USA, each state treats this information differently, some with a degree of distain.

Some countries may also not have much motivation re quality of outgoing testing.
Its not their problem. Motivation of airports is that outgoing passengers get on flights.

Is it a breakthrough infection when there was no vaccination in first place ?

Hard cases that are not going to act sensibly, and take advantage of this.
Difficult to deal with at every step, including stay in MIQ, so cross infection risk goes up.

SJB

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#2836303 21-Dec-2021 12:40

I can't see the government changing their plans for opening up now as they can see from other countries that omicron can overcome just about any restrictions anyway.

And it would be hugely unpopular with all those Kiwis in Aus who have already made plans to come back after Jan 17 and others around the world who are coming back when MIQ ends for them on Feb 14th.

The government will just keep plugging the vaccination line and quoting figures to show how well vaccinated/protected we are.

Sup

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#2836304 21-Dec-2021 12:43

Batman:

networkn:

The alarming thing is that Omicron is now in 89 countries. Why has full MIQ not been introduced again given many people have tested positive after arriving to MIQ despite being double vaccinated and having a negative PCR test prior to departure. It's the most transmissible version yet. The whole wait and see thing isn't going to end well.

i'm not alarmed. i mentioned earlier that on Friday One news interviewed a kiwi Professor in Melbourne, he said if omicron is super infectious and very mild, then we have a way out of the pandemic by infecting everybody with omicron now and that'll be the end of covid.

obviously it needs to be mild ... so ... who knows.

the next day you have the harbinger of doom from Auckland telling us we're doomed we need to shut the border etc.

i'm choosing to look out the window and not think too much and let it all play out, we have people paid to sort us out ... bad news for their holiday though

I am a little alarmed about omicron. Not for myself, or my family from a physical health pov, because we are pro Science. I am more alarmed about what it means in totality.

There were a lot of sound bytes early on, from people who are very qualified about milder disease and the potential upside to mass herd immunity.

To avoid going around in circles I will ignore the milder disease comments being made early, in a snap shot in time, based off a highly resilient South Africa population that is youthful and has high herd immunity factors from previous exposure.

What we do have evidence for, is unprecedented transmission speed. And we have evidence for immune escape.

We now have evidence of disruption in critical systems in London.

This when taken together, is telling us very clearly, that on a population scale, omicron represents a threat to the delivery of services, over a unknown time frame.

That alone should shape the way we personally, in our own lives, proactively respond to the threat (not judging here, being calm is protective, and we should try to remain so).

Rather than waiting for Govts and daily updates to tell us what to do, as responsible, autonomous individuals, we should respond to the real world impacts being seen elsewhere, in a way that anticipates change, rather than hoping for the status quo, because that is what we want to believe, rather than what is actually the potential.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best, remain balanced and calm.

What I see happening in Australia is concerning. People seem to be going with what they are being told through a political device "we were promised, we did what we were told, therefore we are entitled to collect our reward".

But what is actually happening, if you step back, ignore the emotional and the psychology of it, is that Australia is facing an unprecedented level of exponential growth.

So lets assume that is ok because the disease is mild and daily numbers do not matter too much in terms of hospitals.

At some point, it still means a lot of people too sick to go to work. So it is probably the best time to be having omicron, while the country is shut down.

The problem though, that is really worrying, is that Christmas and New Year are going to be a super spreader in Aus.

So any vulnerable population (immunocompromised, unvaccinated with commodities especially age related decline in health) are still going to need hospital beds all at once, some time in January.

At the moment beds are ok in Aus, but this has been an outbreak of the young, diue to their behavioral patterns, Christmas though, brings together the young and old.

We know now that the major infectious diseases institutions in Australia have sounded the alarm in the last 48 hours, they are asking for a pause to the reopening.

We know that the NSW leaders in the response are asking the vaccine advisors to please help us boost our way out of the problem.

We also know, that if that is their plan, that omicron travels much faster than a booster program can ever hope to race the wave.

And we are now seeing two evangelical political leaders, Dominic Perrottet and Scott Morrison, respond with political messaging of "personal responsibility" and "we need to hold our nerve" respectively.

If you watch the NSW pressers, Perrottet has been playing Trump...'this is not my problem this is on you all, this is someone elses fault...we are on the right track here' followed by Brad Hazzard (minister for health) and Kerry Chant chief medical officer) playing Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birks (what we are about to say may sound like the complete opposite of what that other bloke in charge said).

To me it is obvious there needs to be rapid reaction and a reversal of the political white washing of omicron...for the sake of delivering on political promises...Australia needs its leaders to say "well actually we do not know how bad this situation is going to be...therefore we are taking preemptive measures because guessing with your lives and livelihoods on the line is unconscionable if we turn out to be wrong here".

The main reason we have to be reassured here in New Zealand, is that our leadership, will not go blindly into omicron.

It is vital that we do not let it in before New Year has finished, or we face a rapid escalation before boosters can prevent a lot of mild to moderate 'flu' causing major disruptions.

We need to get children vaccinated, in case this suggestion of omicron putting more kids in hospital has any basis.

And we need to forget about levels and traffic lights, and actually use extreme measures, when a threat appears extreme, until we know that it is not.

Excuse the rant. But we are seeing a panicked WHO and a panicked Northern Hemisphere, I think we need to be ready to pivot as fast as we did with Delta if this thing gets in, then reassess quickly, since right now, we are still very early, in the learning curve that is omicron.

Just keep swimming...

Oblivian

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#2836309 21-Dec-2021 12:57

I understand the passion Sup, especially for finding we're smart people here :).. but for a little awareness, when double quoting and then adding a fair bit to it, kinda ends in a wall of text that gets a little lost for anyone not viewing on a laptop/desktop like device screen ;)

MikeB4

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#2836310 21-Dec-2021 13:02

Sup:

Excuse the rant. But we are seeing a panicked WHO and a panicked Northern Hemisphere, I think we need to be ready to pivot as fast as we did with Delta if this thing gets in, then reassess quickly, since right now, we are still very early, in the learning curve that is omicron.

Waiting until it gets in is too late. Overseas examples of that give a very clear and disturbing picture. We are still woefully ill prepared for an onslaught.

ezbee

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#2836341 21-Dec-2021 13:45

28 new community cases today, returnee who didn't complete isolation left with child
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/458367/covid-19-update-28-new-community-cases-today-returnee-who-didn-t-complete-isolation-left-with-child

So you go on the run with your child ?
They have not done the day 3 test yet.
Prior tests, arrival, and one rapid at entry to hospital don't offer much comfort as they are in incubation period.
One can't assume double vaxxed either as with this degree of ________ false vax and test info is entirely possible.

We release details and pictures of other dangerous escapees from custody.
It might be a dissuasion. Escape MIQ and your details become public.
We are too nice, but it would make life much easier for those that have to waste time on these nutcases.

Its counter productive that news emphasize they have 2 negative tests, but its only the day one, and then a rapid hospital entry.
So threat level is not low.

Good news on the 28 cases, but one in Murapara , least vaccinated area of NZ.

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