2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2465161 19-Apr-2020 00:35

tdgeek: ... The 13 cases, did they state that they are all linked to known cases?

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-significant-clusters

7 of the 13 new cases appear to have been linked to existing clusters, 3 appear to have been imported (from the individual case data)

tdgeek

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#2465173 19-Apr-2020 06:54

mattwnz:

I think they would mainly be getting people of a certain age bracket, because people over 70 can't go to the supermarket and get it delivered, and most people under 18 would also not be shopping either. Also it wouldn't be getting those people who use food banks for example. The DG also did say early on, that the tests they use weren't very accurate for those not showing symptoms yet, so there is the potential for false negatives anyway.

But the real problem though, is that the number sampled is way way too low. They had an expert on TV One news, who confirmed this, said they need to be doing 10's of thousands of sample tests.

If you think about it in simple terms like this. Say you had $5,000,000 dollars in the form of $1 coins in a room. Each coin represents a person in NZ. Someone has painted say 200 of those coins with red paint, which represents someone who maybe infected, by not yet showing symptoms. This is purely taking a guess on what the infected number today could be, based on the R0 being about 0.5 as per modeling, and infections under level 4 have been falling.

If you were told to pick 600 coins from that 5,000,000 $1 coins, do you think you would have much of a chance in getting a coin painted red? Whereas if you were to pick 100,000 coins, you would have a far higher chance of getting at least 1 red coin. But there is still a very high chance that you also wouldn't get a red coin. Of course they have tried testing in areas where there are known clusters, which may increase their chances a bit, but they would still need a far larger sample, based on the current small number, but that number can quickly grow when the virus is allowed to spread.

So IMO they need to do 10's of thousands of tests if they were to do things that way, but even then it may not tell the full story. But they have run out of time to do those by Monday when they report to the gov. I just really hope that the limited sampling they have done isn't used to provide some form of assurance that there aren't many undetected cases around the area. As they can do 5000 tests a day, they could over the next few weeks do 50,000 tests to start to get a better sample, and to account for false negatives. But the more the better IMO

Fair points. These sentinel tests I imagine will go as high as they can manage, the more the merrier. With the low threshold of tests now and the sentinel testing, they can go ahead and test 6000 per day. They can use the 50 swab method as well. Does that need to be another 100,000 tests before we leave Level 4? The cases have stepped down to a few per day and I assume these are almost all linked to a case, so thats a good reason to go to L3. The supermarket tests have all come back negative, so thats another possible reason to go to L3, or at least not to stay at 4. Level 3 is very similar to Level 4. I can add one to my bubble of a close family member, thats ok. I could go to a workplace if they has the required safety rules. That should be ok. The litmus test for that is we have had to allow a very large number of supermarkets to be open, the same staff taking the same risks every day, and Im not sure if anyone of them has got infected at a supermarket yet? Level 3 isnt rife with extra risk IMO. Perhaps everyone who has a sniffle is mandated to get a test, and the Police need to operate on a one warning system then a flat $1000 fine, ideally use the IRD to force payment in the next or two paydays. If a case was traced to a workplace location, that location is shut down, thats the employer motivation. IMO Level 3 is a baby step. Its not going to unleash the virus everywhere, the supermarkets have shown us that a controlled workplace environment can work, and a workplace will get better social distancing than a supermarket can.

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#2465210 19-Apr-2020 09:31

From a Whanganui DHB press release:

The Ministry of Health has announced one confirmed case of COVID-19 in the Whanganui Region.

This person, aged 20-29, who lives in the Whanganui District, is following self-isolation restrictions and does not require hospitalisation.

The person has not travelled overseas and has no known links to the seven other people in the Whanganui Region, who have now recovered from COVID-19.

Especially since all 7 previously known cases in the WDHB district had all recovered.

Ge0rge

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#2465229 19-Apr-2020 10:03

frankv:
From a Whanganui DHB press release:

The Ministry of Health has announced one confirmed case of COVID-19 in the Whanganui Region.

This person, aged 20-29, who lives in the Whanganui District, is following self-isolation restrictions and does not require hospitalisation.

The person has not travelled overseas and has no known links to the seven other people in the Whanganui Region, who have now recovered from COVID-19.

:(

Especially since all 7 previously known cases in the WDHB district had all recovered.

That's rather concerning. This should be a good test of the contact tracing though right?

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#2465254 19-Apr-2020 10:18

Ge0rge:
frankv:

From a Whanganui DHB press release:

The Ministry of Health has announced one confirmed case of COVID-19 in the Whanganui Region.

This person, aged 20-29, who lives in the Whanganui District, is following self-isolation restrictions and does not require hospitalisation.

The person has not travelled overseas and has no known links to the seven other people in the Whanganui Region, who have now recovered from COVID-19.

:(

Especially since all 7 previously known cases in the WDHB district had all recovered.

That's rather concerning. This should be a good test of the contact tracing though right?

Umm .. we had a West Coast case from out of thin air 2 weeks ago in a lady who hardly leaves her home. How did the "contact tracing test" go?

Fred99

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#2465265 19-Apr-2020 10:44

Batman:

Umm .. we had a West Coast case from out of thin air 2 weeks ago in a lady who hardly leaves her home. How did the "contact tracing test" go?

Pretty sure she had been admitted to a general ward before lockdown, not initially tested for C-19 (presumably because she had other underlying health conditions), was then diagnosed when symptoms of C-19 were recognised. And a problem as hospital staff who'd had contact with her needed to be isolated.
At that time lots of foreign tourists were traveling through Greymouth, they stop in at supermarkets etc.

She was NZ first fatality from C-19.

The Wanganui case is concerning - so when did symptoms develop?

Edit : Note that as of a couple of days ago, Whanganui region had the lowest testing rate per 1,000 people - only half the national average at the time.

tdgeek

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#2465316 19-Apr-2020 11:04

Ge0rge:That's rather concerning. This should be a good test of the contact tracing though right?

Not contact tracing as this one has no known contacts. Id like to now how he got tested, I hope he felt not great, got a test, nabbed. Thats what we need, people to get a test if they have a runny nose or more. It wont catch asymptomatic, but if I had it, and asymptomatic, then if I follow requited protection practices, then I shouldn't pass it on to others, just those in my home

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frankv

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#2465389 19-Apr-2020 12:47

I should have added the line from the press release that said that family members of the new case were being tested.

My WAG is that one of the family members had contact with someone with the virus. But, yes, it will be interesting to see how contact tracing goes.

networkn

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#2465403 19-Apr-2020 13:17

Do probable cases get reclassified to either confirmed or not confirmed?

Oblivian

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#2465409 19-Apr-2020 13:38

Can't believe they kept looking for justification of their previous click bait articles to date

At leat 5 attempts, all worded slightly different

About good numbers/test results (and a link to tomorrow's meeting decision):
Reporter: if you read into th..
PM: Don't read into anything

Wise words. If only they followed we wouldn't have an updated covid tv announcement confirming current level

Fred99

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#2465414 19-Apr-2020 13:45

networkn:

Do probable cases get reclassified to either confirmed or not confirmed?

Yes. Pretty hard to see it though in the data on MoH site - it's most easily visible in the "clusters" data where every now and then there's a "-1" to indicate that a probable had been removed from the total because they tested negative.

MOH case definitions here (PDF): https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/covid-19-case_definitions16april2020.pdf

PolicyGuy

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#2465427 19-Apr-2020 14:20

networkn:

Do probable cases get reclassified to either confirmed or not confirmed?

I think the correct answer is "usually"

In the case of some of the rest home cases where the patients were from a dementia care unit, I'm fairly sure that it was regarded a poor patient care to subject these frail old folks to a test when they would be unable to understand what was going on or give informed consent. They were just all marked as "probable".

Paul1977

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#2465437 19-Apr-2020 15:01

So, what are peoples predictions on whether we’ll go to level 3 at 11:59pm Wednesday?

I think if the goal is elimination then we aren’t at a point where it’s safe to lower restrictions.

Surely we need to be at a point where the only new cases are within fully isolated bubbles before it’s safe to lower the level.

Geektastic

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#2465439 19-Apr-2020 15:06

Paul1977: So, what are peoples predictions on whether we’ll go to level 3 at 11:59pm Wednesday?

I think if the goal is elimination then we aren’t at a point where it’s safe to lower restrictions.

Surely we need to be at a point where the only new cases are within fully isolated bubbles before it’s safe to lower the level.

I don't think it will be happening until after Anzac weekend. They will be concerned that people will just jump in the wagon and head off for a long weekend otherwise...

neb

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#2465440 19-Apr-2020 15:07

Geektastic:
I don't think it will be happening until after Anzac weekend. They will be concerned that people will just jump in the wagon and head off for a long weekend otherwise...

I'd agree with that, but perhaps modify it to come out of lockdown on Sunday, so instead of going from Level 4 straight back to work it's Level 4 to one or two buffer days and then back to work.

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