2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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4224 posts

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#2465782 20-Apr-2020 01:16

mattwnz:

This is all true, and the lack of ICU beds in NZ has always been the major problem. But if you look at the graphs in the report https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/d/75/files/2017/01/Stochastic-Model-FINAL-RELEASE.pdf , which we are crushing, it appears there are significant benefits in staying in level 4 for longer, in keeping the numbers down to a few and that maybe our only chance to actually eliminate it., which is similar to figure 7, but with no further cases.

There are some issues in this model concerning GER:

- We don't have Level 4 - we have some nonfood shopping/sports restrictions, social distancing and other things like no mass events. I could just take my bike and go biking the whole day, or walking with my spouse or fishing. The tool shops are open to give people the possibiliy to work on their homes or projects. The only requirement is to maintain 1.5m distance to others all time and not more than two people (plus kids belonging to the same household). B-B-Q with foreign household members (friends) is forbidden. Companies maintaining the rules are still operative when considered by them to be. I'd say we have something like Level 3 the whole time.

- Our current reproduction factor is 0.7 - not as stated 1.3 to 1.6. It's considered as stable when R<1.0

If you only could eliminate it asap, it would be a smooth preliminary exit. In that case you "only" have to monitor very close and could find a way out of the lockdown (with remaining precautions for sure). From my point of view a feasible and good way! But this costs patience and discipline but is FAR less that on-off-on-off tactics (we are more or less enforced to do it like this).

Economy takes it's toll anyway - our government i.e. has issued billions of money and loans for the next 20 years to come to keep business operations alive as much as possible for months INCLUDING the smaller self-employed. Here the (useless) moneymakers are pushing "back to business as usual" but they gonna teached new lessons they never knew before. I don't point to "our government" to show superiority or BS like that, I just like to demonstrate the seriousiness of the problem because we got it before you. The solution might differ from us, but the impact to our lives in general will not. When "Joe Neighbour" cancels his holidays in NZ, this might have an impact to your economy somehow. And there are many of "Joe Neighbours" around here who will not (cannot) visit NZ or any other country for the next time to come. Either for budget reasons or for (our) travel restriction reasons.

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Paul1977

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#2465783 20-Apr-2020 01:17

Good opinion piece on interest.co.nz

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/104604/forthcoming-decision-when-we-should-move-covid-level-3-high-risk-expectations-high

Tinkerisk

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#2465789 20-Apr-2020 05:14

neb: I'm not a pilot but figured I should throw in get-there-itis as well, since Trump has a severe case of it.

I don't care about Trump's flying skills. I'm just in accordance with *this*. Chapter 3.2

Bung

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#2465791 20-Apr-2020 05:48

freitasm:
Early action: "How a Reddit-like forum helped Taiwan prepare early for Covid-19"

It's probably politic to portray this as a chance thing rather than Taiwan's intelligence service keeping a very close eye on China. Something that others should have been doing. Blaming WHO for lack of warning is ridiculous.

tdgeek

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#2465793 20-Apr-2020 06:26

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

100% L3 is really L3.8. For most individuals, but business gets relief. Supermarkets are not overrun by staff being infected. Not any AFAIK. Flouters need addressing, time to get tough.

Except some schools can reopen in our level 3, which IMO is a bad idea. Essentially they are being used as childcare centres, to allow some people to go back to work, or to give relief, as it's use is not going to be policed. But impossible to physically distance each kid in a classroom, and then physically distance all teachers from one another from each class. Back before the lockdown they were doing some of this already, and it didn't work, based on what has happened with one of the biggest clusters of 90+ that involves a school. You only need a few not to do it right and for it to spread between bubbles. Especially as it is known that coughs and sneezes can spread further the 2m and droplets remain in the air for hours. As we have previously seen, schools can be petrie dishes for this, much like resthomes. I would be far more comfortable if they didn't also reopen schools while in level 3, and some principals and teacher also share this concern based on the same reasons.

NZ really has the choice of eliminating it, which means short perm pain for long term gain, and potentially means being in level 4 for longer. Or flattening the curve,

Yep, lets see how schools go. Im unsure if Australia has had any school related transmission. I get the feeling that many parents will keep kids home, but not all. It seems quite common for schools to be open elsewhere, so hopefully we did due diligence on that risk.

tdgeek

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#2465794 20-Apr-2020 06:38

Paul1977:

Fred99:

I share that as a "gut feeling". I'd be more than happy to see L4 extended a bit. Even forgetting assessing our local progress, every single day new "real" information comes to light about this disease, and some of it is going to be critical to how it plays out.

Yeah. And in my mind the first two weeks were about finding existing pre L4 cases, and the second two weeks were about finding the first generation of cases contracted during L4. I think we need a further two weeks to assess second generation L4 infections to make sure they are near zero and ALL within bubbles of an already confirmed case.

An extra two weeks at L4 now might mean many fewer weeks at L3. That would be a better end result.

A bit of chatter here (GZ) about the desire to extend past ANZAC Day. Almost an extra week, but more data, bit more time to refine rules/fines etc. Makes sense.

NumPy

132 posts

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#2465799 20-Apr-2020 07:07

Paul1977:

Good opinion piece on interest.co.nz

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/104604/forthcoming-decision-when-we-should-move-covid-level-3-high-risk-expectations-high

Very good piece, thanks for sharing.

My opinion is we should stay at level 4 for another 2 weeks to try and eradicate the virus completely. That was the whole point of going to level 4 in the first place. If we have not done that after 2 weeks then we have failed with what we set out to do and we will not be able to extend level 4 lock down any further. We will have to follow Sweden and be prepared for a worst case scenario. Keeping everybody in lockdown for any more additional weeks until it hopefully goes away is not an option. Speaking for myself, I can possibly really push myself to handle the extra 2 weeks, after that there is no ways I am going to be prepared to be forced into a lockdown any longer.

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Jase2985

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#2465800 20-Apr-2020 07:20

@Batman:

reports emerging from undeveloped nations of widespread mystery deaths - asia, africa, south america :(

how many times do you have to be told, dont post sensationalist information like that with out posting a link/source to go with it.

Linux

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#2465801 20-Apr-2020 07:24

@Batman please provide links off to these reports please!

tdgeek

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#2465802 20-Apr-2020 07:29

NumPy:

Paul1977:

Good opinion piece on interest.co.nz

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/104604/forthcoming-decision-when-we-should-move-covid-level-3-high-risk-expectations-high

Very good piece, thanks for sharing.

My opinion is we should stay at level 4 for another 2 weeks to try and eradicate the virus completely. That was the whole point of going to level 4 in the first place. If we have not done that after 2 weeks then we have failed with what we set out to do and we will not be able to extend level 4 lock down any further. We will have to follow Sweden and be prepared for a worst case scenario. Keeping everybody in lockdown for any more additional weeks until it hopefully goes away is not an option. Speaking for myself, I can possibly really push myself to handle the extra 2 weeks, after that there is no ways I am going to be prepared to be forced into a lockdown any longer.

I dont agree with all of that article. Im fully ok for another 2 weeks and for schools to remain closed. In fact for those of us that work from home, and beneficiaries, Level 3 is actually Level 4 for ourselves.

"In particular I reflect on the fact that there are currently more than 550 active cases (confirmed and probable) capable of starting community transmission."

Thats not correct, these active cases are in lockdown, they are to remain is self isolation until 10 days after symptoms and 2 days clear of symptoms, so there are not 550 people wandering around the community or supermarkets. Yes, there are vagaries with the virus, some of these may be infective after that, but its low numbers. Hopefully Level 3 will raise that threshold.

IIRC, Level 4 was not the level to eradicate, it was the level to break the chain of transmission. Level 3 was to allow a mopping up period where the unavoidable but likely to be very few, CT cases are in the community. When they turn up, contact trace and ring fence them, and allowing for some regions to remain in Level 4. This is possibly quite likely to happen at 4pm, not all of NZ may be Level 3, when we do go to Level 3

You mention you cannot manage more than two extra weeks of Level 4. The same applies to NZ. When we go to Level 3, its a tradeoff for the economy and NZ having very very low numbers in the community, which would be manageable.

cshwone

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#2465803 20-Apr-2020 07:30

NumPy:

Paul1977:

Good opinion piece on interest.co.nz

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/104604/forthcoming-decision-when-we-should-move-covid-level-3-high-risk-expectations-high

Very good piece, thanks for sharing.

My opinion is we should stay at level 4 for another 2 weeks to try and eradicate the virus completely. That was the whole point of going to level 4 in the first place. If we have not done that after 2 weeks then we have failed with what we set out to do and we will not be able to extend level 4 lock down any further. We will have to follow Sweden and be prepared for a worst case scenario. Keeping everybody in lockdown for any more additional weeks until it hopefully goes away is not an option. Speaking for myself, I can possibly really push myself to handle the extra 2 weeks, after that there is no ways I am going to be prepared to be forced into a lockdown any longer.

Think you are a bit extreme there. I totally agree that we should stay at Level 4 for another 2 weeks. After that though we won't be following Sweden; our Level 3 is way more rigorous than the Swedish measures.

And exactly how are you not going to stick to lockdown for any longer if the Government decides that we have to? Go out and increase risk to everyone? Could end up in a longer, and definitely not optional, lockdown environment!!

NumPy

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#2465804 20-Apr-2020 07:37

tdgeek:

IIRC, Level 4 was not the level to eradicate, it was the level to break the chain of transmission.

Alert Level 4 by its very definition is eliminate, which to me means to get rid of, and remove.

tdgeek

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#2465805 20-Apr-2020 07:42

NumPy:

tdgeek:

IIRC, Level 4 was not the level to eradicate, it was the level to break the chain of transmission.

Alert Level 4 by its very definition is eliminate, which to me means to get rid of, and remove.

Yes it is. It was never decreed to eliminate all, the plan was always to mop up the odd case as they turned up. If it was to be full on eliminate, Level 4 would have no end date, as the end date would be unknown, we would stay in it, until some target, say 15 days with zero cases after massive testing was achieved, that could be months

kingdragonfly

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#2465806 20-Apr-2020 07:49

Linux: @Batman please provide links off to these reports please!

The "mysterious illness" reports are from low quality sources. Based on reports from better sources, it sounds like Karachi and Indus Hospital just this week has recognized Covid-19. So that's probably the "mysterious illness"

The original sources are extremely low quality: "‘Mysterious Disease’ Deaths in Karachi"

This is not the place to discuss it. If you'd like, you may create a new thread.

MikeB4

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#2465812 20-Apr-2020 08:21

tdgeek:

Yes it is. It was never decreed to eliminate all, the plan was always to mop up the odd case as they turned up. If it was to be full on eliminate, Level 4 would have no end date, as the end date would be unknown, we would stay in it, until some target, say 15 days with zero cases after massive testing was achieved, that could be months

Jacinda Ardern repeatedly advised that Alert level 4 meant "eliminate" here is but one example

https://www.thehits.co.nz/the-latest/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-raises-new-zealands-covid-19-response-to-alert-level-3-level-4-in-48-hours/

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