2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2466840 21-Apr-2020 09:38

Who do you believe? We can cite artcles that say masks are good and masks are no good. Same with test reliability, same with kids are a very low infector or thats incorrect. Now its we can stampmit out and no we cant. Never know who to believe

sittingduckz

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#2466856 21-Apr-2020 10:07

tdgeek:

Who do you believe? We can cite artcles that say masks are good and masks are no good. Same with test reliability, same with kids are a very low infector or thats incorrect. Now its we can stampmit out and no we cant. Never know who to believe

The internet is such a great place. You are able to prove and disprove anything at all. The earth is round no wait it's flat 🤓

I'm not a complete idiot, I still have some parts missing.

sittingduckz

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#2466859 21-Apr-2020 10:12

Proof!!

I'm not a complete idiot, I still have some parts missing.

Batman

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#2466867 21-Apr-2020 10:18

Germany reopens https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/we-need-life-again-germans-rush-to-reopened-shops-after-coronavirus-lockdown-but-merkel

Racist attack in Australia https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/sporean-student-hurt-in-racist-attack-in-melbourne

tdgeek

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#2466874 21-Apr-2020 10:24

Batman:

Germany reopens https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/we-need-life-again-germans-rush-to-reopened-shops-after-coronavirus-lockdown-but-merkel

Racist attack in Australia https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/sporean-student-hurt-in-racist-attack-in-melbourne

Germany, "gradual easing" thats funny, looks pretty bau to me, aka free-for-all

"We need our life back" thats quite ironic. Opposite effect is more likely

DS248

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#2466875 21-Apr-2020 10:24

cshwone:

Time for a change in reporting

...

What we need, I would suggest, is a change to the emphasis to what will drive us forward. It should be along the lines of:-

"Today NZ has 210 active cases which are derived from 4 new cases today and a reduction of 46 since yesterday" ...

Yes, makes sense to bring the remaining active cases to the fore but all the info (including total cases) needs to be provided. Total cases is helpful for comp.

As per post by PolicyGuy (#2466827) the info is clearly presented on the MOH website.

One improvement MOH could make would be to add one extra line ('Active cases') at the bottom of the Summary table at the top of their 'current cases' web page https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases. And highlight the ('Active cases') bottom row in bold.

And as noted by PolicyGuy and frankv (#2466817), graphs showing active cases and cases per day have been posted on the Geekzone COVID-19: Data, analysis, research links & related discussion thread.

One perhaps more subtle point is that the number of new cases given in the press release each day is made up of cases confirmed over the past two or three days (and sometimes some from even longer ago. The trend vs 'Press Release Date' can give a distorted picture of what is happening; eg over the last four days, the numbers of new cases were: 8, 13, 9, 9. So the 'headline' press release trend looks flat with yesterday's number of new cases one more than the number four days ago. Not so comforting with L3 only six days away.

But when plotted against date of confirmation ('Date of report' in the MOH individual case data), the trend looks quite a bit more positive for the latest four days, with total new cases, 16-19 Apr being: 17, 12, 10, 7*. Note that the last numbers are tentative; data released later today may change them a bit (*eg. possibly add one or two to the last number).

As per plot below, the trend is the same for local cases only. This is the trend that we should be more interested in at this point. NB: plot shows new cases per million population (cpm) to allow more realistic comparison with other jurisdictions. The actual numbers of new local cases confirmed on the 18 & 19th (tentative) were 8 & 5.

cshwone

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#2466879 21-Apr-2020 10:26

PolicyGuy:

MoH has been doing this for some time. You will find the graph below at https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases#dhbs

The graphs you seem to want have been published on the Geekzone COVID-19: Data, analysis, research links & related discussion thread, for example this one

Policy Guy,

Yes, the data is all there for those of us who go looking for it. The point I was trying to make was around how the data is presented publicly, up front by both Government and media. To get public buy in to what is going on. To emphasise Active Cases and New Cases and our drive to reducing them. At the Geekzone level we understand it's getting the whole country focussed that I see being the benefit of my suggested approach.

When we started on this unfortunate journey the headline number as the virus expanded was the total number of cases. Having peaked and now on the reverse slope rather than minimising the total cases we now have a different target and that is to aim towards no active cases or new cases. So it's all about public perception and buy in.

Lenovo

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cshwone

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#2466892 21-Apr-2020 10:30

MikeB4:

The number new cases reported and advised is important for several reasons. 1.They are people and they matter. 2. It shows the outbreak is still active and the risk of blowout is a real and present danger. 3. If they are not highlighted then the Muppets will decide it's all over and go and party. 4. These are people who have contracted an illness and face a lonely, painful death.

I know that low numbers takes away they excitement and drama to some but these numbers matter and matter a lot.

I also believe that the world has only seen the start of this so far, there is a long way to go and its going to be horrific. The complacency that early easing of restrictions risk means that second and third waves are inevitable.

MikeB4:

If you were referring to my post I totally agree. The number of new cases is essential for reporting and must be included. As I said above all I am after is a change in emphasis at the public level away from total cases towards active cases.

tdgeek

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#2466900 21-Apr-2020 10:31

Whats the feel on the length of L3? I feel it should be a month. They can relax some very easy to be sage activities suich as golf (which is happening) duck shooting season, skiing, lots of activities in a 2 hour drive that distancing is easy. Makes L3 lockdown more palatable

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#2466901 21-Apr-2020 10:36

sittingduckz:

Proof!!

Nice to see nobody wearing masks (as currently in Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, China et al). Oh, did I miss something?

DS248

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#2466905 21-Apr-2020 10:43

Probably reasonable advice even today (just add - wash hands, wash hands, wash hands, ... , bubble, bubble, bubble, ...)

NATIONAL LIBRARY OF MEDICINE/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11441725/photographs-spanish-flu-outdoor-hospitals-haunting/

DS248

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#2466910 21-Apr-2020 10:52

cshwone:

...

Yes, the data is all there for those of us who go looking for it. The point I was trying to make was around how the data is presented publicly, up front by both Government and media. To get public buy in to what is going on. To emphasise Active Cases and New Cases and our drive to reducing them. At the Geekzone level we understand it's getting the whole country focussed that I see being the benefit of my suggested approach.

When we started on this unfortunate journey the headline number as the virus expanded was the total number of cases. Having peaked and now on the reverse slope rather than minimising the total cases we now have a different target and that is to aim towards no active cases or new cases. So it's all about public perception and buy in.

Agree that it would be good to report the current active cases in the TV press briefing.

However, looking at some less technically inclined around me, it seems they already focus much more on the new cases each day, rather than the total. So are well aware that we are making progress.

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#2466965 21-Apr-2020 11:16

tdgeek:

Who do you believe? We can cite artcles that say masks are good and masks are no good. Same with test reliability, same with kids are a very low infector or thats incorrect. Now its we can stampmit out and no we cant. Never know who to believe

Are you suggesting that science and faith are inseparable?

Meanwhile oil price is negative https://qz.com/1841668/oil-prices-are-negative-for-first-time-ever/

tdgeek

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#2466972 21-Apr-2020 11:23

Batman:

tdgeek:

Who do you believe? We can cite artcles that say masks are good and masks are no good. Same with test reliability, same with kids are a very low infector or thats incorrect. Now its we can stampmit out and no we cant. Never know who to believe

Are you suggesting that science and faith are inseparable?

I never mentioned faith. But in this topoic I can turn to science to see two opposing answers

Rikkitic

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#2466978 21-Apr-2020 11:28

tdgeek:

I never mentioned faith. But in this topoic I can turn to science to see two opposing answers

Scientists deal in facts. When they don't have the facts, they are cautious. What I keep hearing is we think this or the probability is that, but we just don't know enough yet. That leads to interpretation and opposing answers.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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