2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2472779 28-Apr-2020 13:27

For more depressing news, 'No Evidence' Yet That Recovered COVID-19 Patients Are Immune, WHO Says. Although it does support most countries' position of not gambling on the herd immunity approach.

DS248

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#2472780 28-Apr-2020 13:39

networkn: ... Yes, but, we can cope with more cases than we have now. Of course zero is a nice goal, but probably not realistic. There has been one case of someone testing positive with C19 who have come in from overseas *40* days after arrival.

Yes, and a further 13 confirmed positive more that 21 days after arriving from overseas.

But, despite MOH attributing all of these as imported cases, were they or did some or most contact COVID-19 after arriving back in NZ? If so, they would be CT, not imported. All but one of those 14 cases returned to NZ on or before 23 March, the day Alert Level 3 was announced so local infection cannot be ruled out.

PolicyGuy

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#2472781 28-Apr-2020 13:39

PolicyGuy:

Statistical research is now being done in the UK - and probably other places - that is looking at "excess deaths", i.e. the number of deaths in a month in 2020 and the corresponding month in 2019 (or the average 2015-2019). This is showing that England & Wales have a much higher excess mortality than the official Covid-19 figures - Scotland & N Ireland apparently less so.

This will become clearer as time goes by, these statistics seem to be a monthly series.

:-(

Some scary graphs:

{Note: "Île-de-France" is the Paris region, city including outer suburbs}

Edit: spelling

vexxxboy

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#2472785 28-Apr-2020 13:59

neb: For more depressing news, 'No Evidence' Yet That Recovered COVID-19 Patients Are Immune, WHO Says. Although it does support most countries' position of not gambling on the herd immunity approach.

again nothing on the more important point, people can test positive again but do they have symptoms , can they pass it on to other people the second time . Like all things with this virus we will not know anything definite for months and a whole range of tests have been done to test all the theory's, and when this happens i will think countries will fight this virus in new ways based on such data.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

frednz

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#2472809 28-Apr-2020 14:21

MikeB4:

@frednz the Government instruction regarding inter-regional travel is that it is highly limited and is for essential workers with limited exemptions.

Thanks Mike, I'm aware of that. However, there is also the situation of a person wanting recreational activity in an adjacent region when they live on a regional boundary.

From the covid-19.govt.nz web site

FAQs for recreation

How far can I drive to do a recreation activity?

You should drive as short a distance as you can, and still do the activity. You must stay local.

Your nearest recreational area could mean travelling to a neighbouring region if you live on a regional boundary, as long as this is still local and a close distance to your home.

I had in mind the above situation of living on a regional boundary when I said "we are allowed to travel to other regions provided they are adjacent to the one we are currently living in”. Otherwise, I agree with the limitations on travelling to an adjacent region as explained in this article:

How far can I drive?

You can drive "a short distance", but you should still keep it local.

Travel between regions is only allowed for the following essential personal movement:

Workers travelling to do essential work.
Going to work or school (only in neighbouring region).
Shared bubble arrangements.

Relocating a home or business.

Those travelling for medical reasons.
Emergencies and giving effect to court orders.
Those who have an exemption to travel because of compassionate reasons.
Foreign nationals leaving New Zealand (except Cook Strait ferries).
People arriving in New Zealand from overseas and returning home after 14 days' isolation/quarantine at port of arrival (except air and marine crew).

nzkiwiman

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#2472812 28-Apr-2020 14:25

vexxxboy:

good god it's like someone flipped a switch, the roads are crowded again. I had to wait at intersections today, Macca's was packed and people were running red lights again

100% busier on the roads coming into Dunedin (from Mosgiel) compared to the first 4 weeks (there was a notable increase on Thursday and Friday as well); during my lunch walk today there were more people out and about with more groups who clearly were not people from within the same bubble.

I would have expected to see more "I have been here" sign up sheets around, since we are supposed to be keeping a record .. though I really haven't heard about that as being a thing.
Maybe I need to find the one page advert about COVID that is in the ODT each day.

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cshwone

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#2472820 28-Apr-2020 14:46

With level 3 Metlink advised they were resuming a full train service except if you live in the Wairarapa:

"Wairarapa line services will continue to be replaced by buses on a reduced timetable to discourage travel between regions. The additional bus services that have been added to the timetable for this line will continue. Find out more. "

Last time I looked my Masterton rates bill included a contribution to Greater Wellington Regional Council so a bit disingenuous by Metlink and probably nothing to do with the savings if they don't have to pay Kiwi Rail for the locomotive and driver.

Two hours in a bus is not ideal given the current situation.

MikeB4

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#2472829 28-Apr-2020 15:22

cshwone:

With level 3 Metlink advised they were resuming a full train service except if you live in the Wairarapa:

"Wairarapa line services will continue to be replaced by buses on a reduced timetable to discourage travel between regions. The additional bus services that have been added to the timetable for this line will continue. Find out more. "

Last time I looked my Masterton rates bill included a contribution to Greater Wellington Regional Council so a bit disingenuous by Metlink and probably nothing to do with the savings if they don't have to pay Kiwi Rail for the locomotive and driver.

Two hours in a bus is not ideal given the current situation.

The official Wellington Region encompasses Wellington, Hutt Valley, Porirua and the Kapiti, Carterton, Masterton, South Wairarapa Districts. I guess for Covid-19 is the MOH referring to Regions or Districts for their rules

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

cshwone

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#2472832 28-Apr-2020 15:34

MikeB4:

cshwone:

With level 3 Metlink advised they were resuming a full train service except if you live in the Wairarapa:

"Wairarapa line services will continue to be replaced by buses on a reduced timetable to discourage travel between regions. The additional bus services that have been added to the timetable for this line will continue. Find out more. "

Last time I looked my Masterton rates bill included a contribution to Greater Wellington Regional Council so a bit disingenuous by Metlink and probably nothing to do with the savings if they don't have to pay Kiwi Rail for the locomotive and driver.

Two hours in a bus is not ideal given the current situation.

The official Wellington Region encompasses Wellington, Hutt Valley, Porirua and the Kapiti, Carterton, Masterton, South Wairarapa Districts. I guess for Covid-19 is the MOH referring to Regions or Districts for their rules

The Government advice is about cross-region travel. MoH reporting is by District Health Board. They are separate entities as you pointed out with the details of what makes up Greater Wellington Region. If the rules were by District then Hutt Valley is separate from Capital and Coast (Wellington and Kapiti) and all that would imply for travel.

Bung

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#2472836 28-Apr-2020 15:43

frednz:
Thanks Mike, I'm aware of that. However, there is also the situation of a person wanting recreational activity in an adjacent region when they live on a regional boundary.

From the covid-19.govt.nz web site

FAQs for recreation

How far can I drive to do a recreation activity?

You should drive as short a distance as you can, and still do the activity. You must stay local.

Your nearest recreational area could mean travelling to a neighbouring region if you live on a regional boundary, as long as this is still local and a close distance to your home.

I had in mind the above situation of living on a regional boundary when I said "we are allowed to travel to other regions provided they are adjacent to the one we are currently living in”. Otherwise, I agree with the limitations on travelling to an adjacent region as explained in this article:

How far can I drive?

You can drive "a short distance", but you should still keep it local.

You would expect this far in that there would be a closer agreement between the content of the Health Act (COVID-19 Alert Level 3) Order 2020 and the Covid 19 web page. Driving as short a distance as is necessary seems quite sensible but is not mentioned in the Health Act Order.

mattwnz

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#2472847 28-Apr-2020 15:57

cshwone:

With level 3 Metlink advised they were resuming a full train service except if you live in the Wairarapa:

IMO it doens't make much sense in terms of what we are trying to accomplish, for public transport to be running under level 3. It has the potential to burst more bubbles IMO. But I can see that it has been running under level 4, and it is supposed to be only for essential workers, and for people needing to use to to go to the supermarket, so maybe not that much changes. Luckily NZ is a big car user nation.

People should read this article https://www.nzgeo.com/stories/our-new-future/?source=homepage

Basically it says that Level 4 has given us a chance to time travel back to before the lockdown, and to do things again. We don't want to repeat history again, and end back in level 4. Although I think even if numbers do rise again, I do wonder if they will do level 4 again. One NZ expert did saying that we needed 6-8 weeks to eliminate after the level 3 announcement occurred, which should have allowed active cases to get down to just a handful.

I would like to see the people in charge to push the point that we need to be even more careful in level 3, than we were under level 4, and still to act like we all have COVID. I fear too many people think that the worst is over and it will just die out, which was the attitude that some people expressed in the media back in February.

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kingdragonfly

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#2472869 28-Apr-2020 16:55

Washington Post: CDC confirms six coronavirus symptoms showing up in patients over and over

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention added six symptoms of the novel coronavirus to its list, suggesting health experts are learning more about the growing number of ways physicians see the virus affecting patients.

The symptoms, which the CDC reports could appear two to 14 days after exposure to the virus, are:

Chills
Repeated shaking with chills
Muscle pain
Headache
Sore throat
New loss of taste or smell

Previously, the CDC listed just three known symptoms: shortness of breath, cough and fever.
...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/27/six-new-coronavirus-symptoms/

mattwnz

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#2472909 28-Apr-2020 17:28

If anyone has any questions they want to ask, currently Epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker is answering questions live on Stuffs chat.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121302681/coronavirus-live-qa-epidemiologist-professor-michael-baker-on-how-nz-is-tracking

Noticed a lot of people today out and about, and quite a lot now wearing masks. Guessing workers have to, as most workers I saw were wearing them.

ezbee

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#2472969 28-Apr-2020 19:05

Well its starting already the calls that its all over .........

Dallas Pendergrast, who co-owns Glenfield Mall on Auckland's North Shore with her husband Ross, told the Epidemic Response Committee that forcing their tenants to endure another two weeks of lockdown is "unacceptable".

Pendergrast replied: "Michael, the virus is contained in New Zealand, let's be real about this...To prolong it because another person might pop up out of a cluster is insane.

"There are so few people who have been affected by this virus in New Zealand and the worst is over.

Glenfield Mall owner rages at 'naïve' Government over retail restrictions under COVID-19 alert level 3

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/04/glenfield-mall-owner-rages-at-na-ve-government-over-retail-restrictions-under-covid-19-alert-level-3.html

Oh my ....

debo

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#2472970 28-Apr-2020 19:07

mattwnz: 30-march-2020

... I have reported someone for moving into a new house during the lockdown, but those people are still moving stuff today. I don't believe people are permitted to move house during lockdown. So either the police have given them permission to do this, or they haven't yet followed them up, ...

or it is David Clark moving house and the rules simply don't apply to him.

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