2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2493815 28-May-2020 17:28

mattwnz:

frankv:

I wonder if this is a reason that covid-19 didn't spread exponentially in Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam and Taiwan, all of which had a small number of SARS cases (1755, 238, 63, and 346 respectively). Perhaps those populations already have some immunity to covid-19?

I would doubt it. SARS wasn't as contagious or didn't have the same incubation period as I understand it, potentially making the R factor far lower, but it was far more deadly. NZ too didn't have huge spread either, considering how many people were returning to NZ and passed it on, and Australia is similar. Although Australia is becoming more of a worry as each day passes in some of the states.

I think SARS played a different role,
In that those countries hit harder by SARS moved swiftly as soon as this was reported as a SARS like virus.
Even before WHO had firm evidence on human to human transfer , R value etc.
Plus populations that were closer to worst SARS outbreaks also moved into SARS mode as it were just in case.
For other nations SARS had faded from memory as it was not a big deal, so waited for stronger evidence, or considered it other peoples problems.

Batman

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#2493821 28-May-2020 17:31

mattwnz:

frankv:

I wonder if this is a reason that covid-19 didn't spread exponentially in Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam and Taiwan, all of which had a small number of SARS cases (1755, 238, 63, and 346 respectively). Perhaps those populations already have some immunity to covid-19?

I would doubt it. SARS wasn't as contagious or didn't have the same incubation period as I understand it, potentially making the R factor far lower, but it was far more deadly. NZ too didn't have huge spread either, considering how many people were returning to NZ and passed it on, and Australia is similar. Although Australia is becoming more of a worry as each day passes in some of the states.

No Sars 1 maximally infectious 5 days After showing symptoms. While sars 2 is maximally infectious 1 day before showing symptoms.

mattwnz

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#2493831 28-May-2020 17:58

Batman:

ximally infectious 5 days After showing symptoms. While sars 2 is maximally infectious 1 day before showing symptoms.

Yes, that probably one reason why the R0 value of SARS was lower, and it didn't spread as easily. If someone is sick from an infection, and then becomes most infectious, then they are less likely to spread it, than if they are most infectious before showing signs of being sick. If you use Ebola as an example, it will often knock the person down, preventing them going about their normal life spreading it. But COVID you can go around spreadig it while being perfectly well, before you start showing symptoms.

mattwnz

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#2493835 28-May-2020 18:08

NZ may have now eliminated COVID19, and NZ could be declared free of COVID 19 in 21 days, expert says.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300022896/coronavirus-nz-could-be-declared-free-of-covid19-in-21-days-expert-says

nzkiwiman

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#2493842 28-May-2020 18:18

While I understand the desire to open the borders to tourists again, when just one of these tourists could bring in the virus again and cause yet another wave that could mean we are back to Level 4 lockdowns again.

Until we have 100% fool proof method to know if someone has the virus before they show any symptoms, there can't be any international travel.

tdgeek

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#2493845 28-May-2020 18:37

nzkiwiman:

While I understand the desire to open the borders to tourists again, when just one of these tourists could bring in the virus again and cause yet another wave that could mean we are back to Level 4 lockdowns again.

Until we have 100% fool proof method to know if someone has the virus before they show any symptoms, there can't be any international travel.

Yeah, I agree, if it was that easy. Lets say NZ has no cases for another 21 days. Thats doesn't mean it does not exist here, so Australia bans us too. Might be years :-)

I think we need to draw a line where there is a risk but its really low. Each visitor MUST have a record where they were if there are people there. If a state in AUS has zero cases for x amount of time, it's no different to it being me or you.

I get you though, but if you what risk free, its a couple of years, which isn't workable. If we got a case in Queenstown that turned to 4 cases there, we have been there done that, and with more testing and faster contact tracing, and people are told to social distance due to a new risk, I think thats fair.

I could also say, why didn't we stay in level 4 for 2 years? We would get a better result, BUT irreparable damage would be caused. Our 5 weeks gave us a low risk, so we still need to stick to lower risk not no risk IMHO

Oblivian

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#2493846 28-May-2020 18:39

nzkiwiman:

While I understand the desire to open the borders to tourists again, when just one of these tourists could bring in the virus again and cause yet another wave that could mean we are back to Level 4 lockdowns again.

Until we have 100% fool proof method to know if someone has the virus before they show any symptoms, there can't be any international travel.

Winston seems to think we can relax and treat it like the 'repatriation period'. Cause that worked out well for us. 0.o

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tdgeek

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#2493852 28-May-2020 18:50

Oblivian:

Winston seems to think we can relax and treat it like the 'repatriation period'. Cause that worked out well for us. 0.o

He's investing in Todd Muller, not helping NZ. The tourism people want money, not NZ. I hope there is representation of the health risk. I want heaps of tourists here, heaps of the buggers. When its ok to. I dont mean in 2 years but I also don't mean in 2 minutes Winston.

mattwnz

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#2493864 28-May-2020 19:03

nzkiwiman:

While I understand the desire to open the borders to tourists again, when just one of these tourists could bring in the virus again and cause yet another wave that could mean we are back to Level 4 lockdowns again.

Until we have 100% fool proof method to know if someone has the virus before they show any symptoms, there can't be any international travel.

That is why I am wondering why the Deputy PM is saying that our travel bubble with Oz should have opened yesterday, even though they at CT occurring and new cases and schools closing etc in some states.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12335433

Some states in Oz seem to be in a similar state now, to where NZ was prior to our level 4 lockdown, where we used level 4 to kill of our CT. But Australia haven't done that, so I can't see how they are going to stop their CT occurring, especially as they are relaxing their lock down. Just shows how right NZ was in our approach IMO. . Some states may have almost eliminated it, but some states haven't. Maybe they have closed the borders between states, but I heard their PM on an Oz radio station, and he was wanting to get the borders between states open as soon as possible to get their economy going again.

mattwnz

20141 posts

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#2493867 28-May-2020 19:08

Oblivian:

nzkiwiman:

While I understand the desire to open the borders to tourists again, when just one of these tourists could bring in the virus again and cause yet another wave that could mean we are back to Level 4 lockdowns again.

Until we have 100% fool proof method to know if someone has the virus before they show any symptoms, there can't be any international travel.

Winston seems to think we can relax and treat it like the 'repatriation period'. Cause that worked out well for us. 0.o

This is the problem with running an election now. Parties are trying to differentiate themselves from one another. Unless the situations in both NZ and Australia match, eg both countries have eliminated the virus, the bubble IMO can't occur, as the risk is too high. It would be false economy for bit our tourism money, when the cost of another outbreak in NZ, and going back into level 4 could literally cause our financial and banking system to fail. The PM is saying it could be in place by September, the deputy PM is saying yesterday.

mattwnz

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#2493869 28-May-2020 19:12

tdgeek:

nzkiwiman:

While I understand the desire to open the borders to tourists again, when just one of these tourists could bring in the virus again and cause yet another wave that could mean we are back to Level 4 lockdowns again.

Until we have 100% fool proof method to know if someone has the virus before they show any symptoms, there can't be any international travel.

Yeah, I agree, if it was that easy. Lets say NZ has no cases for another 21 days. Thats doesn't mean it does not exist here, so Australia bans us too. Might be years :-)

There would be a period of time where it can be ruled that NZ has eliminated it from the shores. It will likely be in teh months, not years. That would partly be based on all cases for the last few months being able to be traced back. If there was evidence of CT still occurring, that would be far more difficult. That is where NZ and Australias situations are significantly different. Australia is going to be a far higher risk than NZ, because Oz still has CT occurring and never did the level 4 lockdown to starve the CT cases of new hosts.

tdgeek

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#2493880 28-May-2020 19:38

mattwnz:

There would be a period of time where it can be ruled that NZ has eliminated it from the shores. It will likely be in teh months, not years. That would partly be based on all cases for the last few months being able to be traced back. If there was evidence of CT still occurring, that would be far more difficult. That is where NZ and Australias situations are significantly different. Australia is going to be a far higher risk than NZ, because Oz still has CT occurring and never did the level 4 lockdown to starve the CT cases of new hosts.

Yep. I wasn't serious with years.

Peters says yesterday. PM says maybe September. The 40 strong group says July school holidays. I assume Todd Muller says very soon. September seems reasonable, its not soon, its not far, but I predict daily ructions until then. Everyone wants the money, election issue, health and risk aren't being considered by many I feel

Fred99

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#2494103 29-May-2020 09:14

Very good graphic from NY Times - "herd immunity":

frankv

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#2494137 29-May-2020 09:46

A couple of good articles on America from The Economist:

These are both free to read, but you may need to sign up for access. I think it's worth signing up, not only for these but other thought-provoking articles on covid-19 and other topics.

America’s covid-19 experience is tragic but not that exceptional

How the world’s most powerful country is handling covid-19

kiwifidget

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#2494243 29-May-2020 10:57

When you are allowed to have up to 100 people at a gathering as of noon today, do those 100 people still have to observe physical distancing of 1m or 2m?

Our club captain is busting a gut to hold our AGM asap.

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