2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2524855 17-Jul-2020 16:57

Handle9:

The first was that outbreaks are to some extent inevitable. Systems break down and its impossible to make them foolproof.

The other is that there needs to be preparations for opening up to the world. The New Zealand economy depends on international trade and it isn't feasible to be closed forever. They are also honest enough to say a vaccine may be some years away so there needs to be a clear plan on how to achieve contact with the world that is fit for purpose.

At no point do they say the New Zealand should have open borders.

International trade can still occur in a covid world, with the current system NZ has setup. One of the main things that will affect NZ with this virus longer term, is international tourists, and the knock-on effects that that causes throughout the economy. But things such as selling milk power and food to the rest of the world, and us buying in products, can all absolutely still occur in the current situation, as it is now. Likewise with covid eliminated, it now doesn't stop people buying and selling houses to one another, which was a major part of NZs economy. Likewise local tourism. If people do need to travel overseas for business reasons, then quarantining will need to be factored in at at least one end, once things do open up a bit more, and most NZers have returned back. eg If someone is travelling to UK, then because NZ is covid free, then they don't need to quarantine when they arrive. But when they return, they will. That cost would have to be factored into their trip, but in many cases will be a business expense. Whether this lasts 2 years, 5 years, or longer. We have been spoilt by cheaper international travel and unimpeded free travel for decades, but things change.

If systems are robust, with belts and braces, then they should be watertight. We were assured that the borders were watertight. Maybe that was an error for them to say that, based on what has happened. But there can always be processes to make sure they are, and then belts and braces to mop up any leaks. So far it has worked, and things have been improved , and holes plugged. But there could be the day in the not too distant future, when we get our first community case, especially with the increased testing, which they are now ramping up again. eg you may not find cases, if you don't test for them.

What could NZ have done any differently, that would have been better than the current situation? From what I can see, any other solution would mean NZ would be in a worse position than we are now, especially as we are now essentially living a pre covid life in NZ, and our internal economy and businesses can operate as normal, minus international tourists and students.

tdgeek

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#2524858 17-Jul-2020 17:16

Handle9:

Go and read what they actually wrote. There were two main points. The first was that outbreaks are to some extent inevitable. Systems break down and its impossible to make them foolproof.

The other is that there needs to be preparations for opening up to the world. The New Zealand economy depends on international trade and it isn't feasible to be closed forever. They are also honest enough to say a vaccine may be some years away so there needs to be a clear plan on how to achieve contact with the world that is fit for purpose.

At no point do they say the New Zealand should have open borders.

I agree, but isn't international trade already open? Apart from students.

tdgeek

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#2524863 17-Jul-2020 17:22

mattwnz:

If systems are robust, with belts and braces, then they should be watertight. We were assured that the borders were watertight. Maybe that was an error for them to say that, based on what has happened. But there can always be processes to make sure they are, and then belts and braces to mop up any leaks. So far it has worked, and things have been improved , and holes plugged. But there could be the day in the not too distant future, when we get our first community case, especially with the increased testing, which they are now ramping up again. eg you may not find cases, if you don't test for them.

What could NZ have done any differently, that would have been better than the current situation? From what I can see, any other solution would mean NZ would be in a worse position than we are now, especially as we are now essentially living a pre covid life in NZ, and our internal economy and businesses can operate as normal, minus international tourists and students.

Our borders are watertight, as they can be. As stated by Chris Hipkins they are hotels not prisons. If you want true watertight they all go to Paremoremo. Way over 30,000 have gone through, probably 35000 by now, and a small handful made the news. Thats DARN good. If and when some sneak through, we have the resources we have for that.

tdgeek

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#2524865 17-Jul-2020 17:23

mattwnz:

, and our internal economy and businesses can operate as normal, minus international tourists and students.

Tourists is a long way off, and say Australia, the incomings are not dissimilar to the outgoings so that's not actually that huge a deal, net wise. International students are expected early next year. Which is good.

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#2524868 17-Jul-2020 17:31

mattwnz:
If people do need to travel overseas for business reasons, then quarantining will need to be factored in at at least one end, once things do open up a bit more, and most NZers have returned back.

There are still hundreds of thousands of kiwis spread around the world.
IIRC Minister Hipkins said in one of the press briefings that over 10,000 have registered as interested to come home since the Covid pandemic started, but have not yet actually booked tickets - some probably because they can't / can't afford to.

Then there's the Kiwis permanently resident in Australia, but arrived there after 2001 - I believe there's about half a million.
They have no entitlements to social welfare assistance from the Australian government, but have been eligible for the Covid-special "JobKeeper" allowance that runs out fairly soon (in October IIRC). So if they lose or have lost their jobs they have to live off their savings until they find another job. If they don't find another job in the recession-stricken Australian economy, then they'll have to come home to NZ.

The thirty-odd thousand returnees so far will be a drop in the bucket

Handle9

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#2524870 17-Jul-2020 17:36

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

If systems are robust, with belts and braces, then they should be watertight. We were assured that the borders were watertight. Maybe that was an error for them to say that, based on what has happened. But there can always be processes to make sure they are, and then belts and braces to mop up any leaks. So far it has worked, and things have been improved , and holes plugged. But there could be the day in the not too distant future, when we get our first community case, especially with the increased testing, which they are now ramping up again. eg you may not find cases, if you don't test for them.

What could NZ have done any differently, that would have been better than the current situation? From what I can see, any other solution would mean NZ would be in a worse position than we are now, especially as we are now essentially living a pre covid life in NZ, and our internal economy and businesses can operate as normal, minus international tourists and students.

Our borders are watertight, as they can be. As stated by Chris Hipkins they are hotels not prisons. If you want true watertight they all go to Paremoremo. Way over 30,000 have gone through, probably 35000 by now, and a small handful made the news. Thats DARN good. If and when some sneak through, we have the resources we have for that.

There will be breakdowns and outbreaks in the community again. That is unavoidable unless you take people out of the equation.

mattwnz

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#2524872 17-Jul-2020 17:40

PolicyGuy:

mattwnz:
If people do need to travel overseas for business reasons, then quarantining will need to be factored in at at least one end, once things do open up a bit more, and most NZers have returned back.

There are still hundreds of thousands of kiwis spread around the world.
IIRC Minister Hipkins said in one of the press briefings that over 10,000 have registered as interested to come home since the Covid pandemic started, but have not yet actually booked tickets - some probably because they can't / can't afford to.

Then there's the Kiwis permanently resident in Australia, but arrived there after 2001 - I believe there's about half a million.
They have no entitlements to social welfare assistance from the Australian government, but have been eligible for the Covid-special "JobKeeper" allowance that runs out fairly soon (in October IIRC). So if they lose or have lost their jobs they have to live off their savings until they find another job. If they don't find another job in the recession-stricken Australian economy, then they'll have to come home to NZ.

The thirty-odd thousand returnees so far will be a drop in the bucket

This is a interesting point, because in Oz, their reasoning for introducing the quarantine charge was that...

"Australian residents have been given plenty of time to return home, and we feel it is only fair that they cover some of the costs of their hotel accommodation," Ms Berejiklian said.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/returning-travellers-will-need-to-fork-out-3000-for-nsw-hotel-quarantine-20200711-p55b4w.html

I understand Australians living in NZ are entitled to benefits if they lose their jobs, but the same doesn't apply to all NZers living in Australia. Maybe Asutralia need to look after those NZers who have been paying taxes and working and supporting the Australian economy for the last few decades, in this covid world.

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PolicyGuy

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#2524874 17-Jul-2020 17:41

tdgeek:

International students are expected early next year. Which is good.

Not on the same basis and same numbers as before, they aren't.

There were over sixty thousand overseas tertiary students in NZ at the end of the 2019 academic year, plus a bunch of secondary students too. There is no way we're going to accommodate and quarantine even half that number all wanting to arrive between early February and early March. Imagine trying to do managed isolation for thirty thousand seventeen to twenty year olds! The mind boggles.

If there is an export education market for international students coming to NZ in 2021, it's going to be much smaller than previously.
This is going to be a major issue for numbers of Private Training Establishments (many of whom specialise in ESOL as a prerequisite to 'mainstream' tertiary study), Universities & Polytechnics and some High Schools. All of them have developed financial models which absolutely depend on full fee paying overseas students, and which are now broken for at least the next academic year, probably two.

Handle9

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#2524875 17-Jul-2020 17:42

tdgeek:

Handle9:

Go and read what they actually wrote. There were two main points. The first was that outbreaks are to some extent inevitable. Systems break down and its impossible to make them foolproof.

The other is that there needs to be preparations for opening up to the world. The New Zealand economy depends on international trade and it isn't feasible to be closed forever. They are also honest enough to say a vaccine may be some years away so there needs to be a clear plan on how to achieve contact with the world that is fit for purpose.

At no point do they say the New Zealand should have open borders.

I agree, but isn't international trade already open? Apart from students.

There is some international trade, with airfreight heavily subsidised by the government. It will drop to much lower levels with completely closed borders.

Trade relies on people moving, meeting and doing business. While some business trips are boondoggles the vast majority are people meeting each other to collaborate and sell to each other. Virtual meetings can never be as effective for this type of activity as face to face. If you want to close a deal you do this face to face, not virtually or on the phone.

If you have a product or service and want to open up to a new market you travel to meet people, agents and customers. If NZ inc can't do that then it severely hampers the ability to trade. Equally inwards investment will drop away as overseas organisations can't visit their subsidiaries so will be far less likely to invest. NZ isn't a particularly attractive market to get investment anyway so making it much harder to do business s another reason to invest somewhere else.

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#2524876 17-Jul-2020 17:42

kingdragonfly:
Batman:

meanwhile hacking ... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12348725

Which begs the question: why is all research not being shared openly?

Commercially sensitive information?

Let's say USA, UK, Australia publish everything. And Russia just copy everything and secretly makes a vaccine, while hack and destroys all the USA, UK, AU data ... I'll let you complete the story.

tdgeek

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#2524877 17-Jul-2020 17:42

mattwnz:

I understand Australians living in NZ are entitled to benefits if they lose their jobs, but the same doesn't apply to all NZers living in Australia. Maybe Asutralia need to look after those NZers who have been paying taxes and working and supporting the Australian economy for the last few decades, in this covid world.

We do that, they don't, a long time sticking point.

Handle9

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#2524878 17-Jul-2020 17:43

mattwnz:

Handle9:

The first was that outbreaks are to some extent inevitable. Systems break down and its impossible to make them foolproof.

The other is that there needs to be preparations for opening up to the world. The New Zealand economy depends on international trade and it isn't feasible to be closed forever. They are also honest enough to say a vaccine may be some years away so there needs to be a clear plan on how to achieve contact with the world that is fit for purpose.

At no point do they say the New Zealand should have open borders.

International trade can still occur in a covid world, with the current system NZ has setup. One of the main things that will affect NZ with this virus longer term, is international tourists, and the knock-on effects that that causes throughout the economy. But things such as selling milk power and food to the rest of the world, and us buying in products, can all absolutely still occur in the current situation, as it is now. Likewise with covid eliminated, it now doesn't stop people buying and selling houses to one another, which was a major part of NZs economy. Likewise local tourism. If people do need to travel overseas for business reasons, then quarantining will need to be factored in at at least one end, once things do open up a bit more, and most NZers have returned back. eg If someone is travelling to UK, then because NZ is covid free, then they don't need to quarantine when they arrive. But when they return, they will. That cost would have to be factored into their trip, but in many cases will be a business expense. Whether this lasts 2 years, 5 years, or longer. We have been spoilt by cheaper international travel and unimpeded free travel for decades, but things change.

If systems are robust, with belts and braces, then they should be watertight. We were assured that the borders were watertight. Maybe that was an error for them to say that, based on what has happened. But there can always be processes to make sure they are, and then belts and braces to mop up any leaks. So far it has worked, and things have been improved , and holes plugged. But there could be the day in the not too distant future, when we get our first community case, especially with the increased testing, which they are now ramping up again. eg you may not find cases, if you don't test for them.

What could NZ have done any differently, that would have been better than the current situation? From what I can see, any other solution would mean NZ would be in a worse position than we are now, especially as we are now essentially living a pre covid life in NZ, and our internal economy and businesses can operate as normal, minus international tourists and students.