2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2524896 17-Jul-2020 18:20

We absolutely have international trade.

Ask Fisher & Paykel Healthcare.
You lucky holders of FPH shares over last several years.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121971708/fisher--paykel-healthcare-profits-up-37-on-back-of-covid19

Dairy Exports are up , for period 1st feb to 26th June
2020 7.6B , 2019 6.86B ,2018 6.29B

Meat Exports up a little, during restrictions running at lower capacity to space workers out safely.
Note meatworks worldwide, Germany, France, USA, Australia, Canada have been vulnerable to outbreaks.
2020 4.26B, 2019 4.17B, 2018 3.84B

Seafood did take a hit Covid hit Lobster season, high value China trade smaller.
2020 0.687B 2019 0.871B, 2018 0.731B

Forestry, China stopped taking logs for a while, though slope of graph has recovered.
2020 1.78B 2019 2.44B, 2018 2.3B

Fruit did well, exceptional effort getting harvests in, in difficult circumstances.
2020 2.4B 2019 2.15B, 2018 1.92B

Non-Food Manufactured Goods. Long term trend of NZ manufacturing in decline unfortunately.
2020 5.23B 2019 5.49B, 2018 5.8B

I suppose services which a lot of technology and IT businesses are in don't fit in here so are somewhere else ?

https://www.stats.govt.nz/experimental/covid-19-data-portal?tab=Economic&category=Trade&indicator=Exports%20by%20country%20(values)
Edit, tidy formatting

Handle9

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#2524904 17-Jul-2020 18:32

Yawn, ignoring the point.

kingdragonfly

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#2524905 17-Jul-2020 18:35

New York Times: In the US, testing is on the brink of paralysis. that’s very bad news.

Our pandemic fight requires prompt testing results — and singular cooperation among the states to achieve them.

By Margaret Bourdeaux, Beth Cameron and Jonathan Zittrain

As Covid-19 cases surge to their highest levels in dozens of states, the nation’s testing effort is on the brink of paralysis because of widespread delays in getting back results. And that is very bad news, because even if testing is robust, the pandemic cannot be controlled without rapid results.

This is the latest failure in our national response to the worst pandemic in a century. Since the Trump administration has abdicated responsibility, governors must join forces to meet this threat before the cataclysm that Florida is experiencing becomes the reality across the country.

Testing should be the governors’ first order of business.

Despite President Trump’s boast early this month that testing “is so massive and so good,” the United States’ two largest commercial testing companies, Quest Diagnostics and LabCorp, have found themselves overwhelmed and unable to return results promptly. Delays averaging a week or longer for all but top-priority hospital patients and symptomatic health care workers are disastrous for efforts to slow the spread of the virus.

Without rapid results, it is impossible to isolate new infections quickly enough to douse flare-ups before they grow. Slow diagnosis incapacitates contact tracing, which entails not only isolating those who test positive but also alerting the infected person’s contacts quickly so they can quarantine, too, and avoid exposing others to the virus unwittingly.

...As summer turns to fall, slow and fragmented testing will fatally undermine the reopening of schools and universities, whose plans are predicated on quickly identifying outbreaks and suppressing spread. Testing for millions of students will feed into an already failing national system.

Vice President Mike Pence’s casual invocation of an “extraordinary national success in testing” in a recent call with governors was flatly wrong, as is the president’s similar trumpeting of testing success. These claims contribute to a false sense among the public that testing may have had early stumbles but is ramping up slowly but surely.

The reality is that the spread of the virus has vastly outpaced the expansion of testing capacity. That spread in turn results in more illness and therefore more tests to process, which further slows down turnaround time in a vicious cycle. The dedication and patience of thousands of people waiting in serpentine lines of cars for hours to be tested are wasted when the results aren’t returned quickly enough.

We are at this point because of the absence of a coordinated federal plan, and, indeed, because of a White House that seems actively hostile to producing one. The nation’s governors and state legislators must fill the void.

Unity among the states is not just about neighborliness but also about self-interest. So long as interstate travel continues, inadequate testing anywhere threatens public health everywhere, including in places that have found or developed localized testing capacities and are less sensitive to the bottlenecks that Quest and LabCorp are experiencing.

...Governors must work collectively to fill gaps in their own testing and contact-tracing programs. The National Governors Association helped in a similar effort to curb the spread of the Zika virus.

In March there was a mad scramble and competition for personal protective equipment. Now, the allocation of tests and test processing may end up in another free-for-all. A coordinated approach by all states would avoid that.

...Governors should also agree to assist in sharing local test processing capacity, including by university labs, so it is available wherever it is most needed. Relying largely on two large commercial testing companies, as we are now, has proved to be a major vulnerability.

...We can’t allow the delays at Quest and LabCorp to mark the start of a downward spiral. Instead, we must marshal a nationwide strategy to place the United States in the ranks of other countries that are successfully beating back the pandemic.

Sorting out testing is foundational to slowing the spread of the virus. From there, governors can build a comprehensive national plan of attack. Doing so will require new forms of coordinated governance. In the absence of federal leadership, it’s up to governors to step to the fore.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/opinion/coronavirus-testing-us.html

kingdragonfly

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#2525040 18-Jul-2020 06:40

Not completely related, but funny ???

History Hijinks: Plague

cshwone

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#2525043 18-Jul-2020 07:16

Handle9:

Yawn, ignoring the point.

Yawn, ignoring the fact that the world has changed and we will have to find new ways of doing international business. New Zealand will not be alone in having restrictions on movement. From the simple fact of having to factor in quarantine (isolation) requirements depending on where in the world you have gone (do you have to isolate on arrival in another country and WFH in a foreign hotel) to isolating on arriving back here for two weeks (which would be effectively WFH but not actually at home). If people were comfortable with the WFH during lockdown the fact that you are in a hotel somewhere in the world shouldn't make you any less productive. It will be an extra financial cost of doing business.

Critical reviews of what international engagement is required. Numbers of people travelling. Shaping schedules to minimise the number of times you have to travel etc.Shaping schedules to minimise isolation requirements.

Business visitors coming here co-ordinating with visits to "bubble" partners which assuming Australia is what many North American and European businesses did anyway.

It's all a new dynamic and people will make it work.

tdgeek

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#2525133 18-Jul-2020 11:21

A few short weeks ago Australia's cases were around 7000, Victoria will reach that shortly. NSW is getting more cases. UK is relaxing restrictions, Boris says hope for the best, should be ok by Xmas.

Obviously lucky to be here, but the global effect will be with us for a few years. Tourism needs to not wait for things to change they need to seek out small niches around the globe, there should be a few oases here and there

Dingbatt

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#2525148 18-Jul-2020 12:15

So according the the CDC, the current mortality rate in the US from PIC (Pneumonia Influenza Covid) has reduced to just above the seasonal baseline and epidemic threshold after a massive spike around week 18-20 (final graph in this report).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Can someone explain why this has trended down so sharply when all the news indicates the opposite?

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

Sharesies

Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).

Fred99

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#2525149 18-Jul-2020 12:18

Handle9:

Yawn, ignoring the point.

Do you mean the point that if you "open up" when locally the pandemic is under control, you're making a conscious decision to just allow many people to die?

Fred99

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#2525156 18-Jul-2020 12:49

Dingbatt:

Can someone explain why this has trended down so sharply when all the news indicates the opposite?

The peak was from mainly very high rate of infection in NY/NJ, peaking at around 3000 deaths a day. They locked down hard and reversed the trend. Deaths a day in the US are now around 1,000. Diagnosed cases are increasing exponentially, part of that will be "real", part will be increased number of cases because of increased number of tests.

The increase in cases in other states has been in a younger demographic - there's probably data on that trend on the CDC site. That's probably explained in general by older people being more cautious and avoiding exposure, younger people less so and more "socially mobile" anyway. The case fatality rate in younger people is lower - much lower at <50 than >50 YO. But that's temporary - eventually older people will be infected.

That CDC site mentions delays in confirming COD - I'd heard that from time of death to issuing death certificates in Florida is about 2 weeks to get them in "the system".

So, from diagnosis (say 3-10 days) from time of being infected to time of death (~4 weeks), then add a week or so for the deaths to be tallied, then there's a lag. They're probably increasing % of cases confirmed by increased testing - but you can't know what you can't see, so there's guesswork. Even if half the real cases are being picked up in testing, then the ~75,000/day new cases = 150,000, which would be 1500 deaths per day being recorded in a month time. I think it will be higher - and possibly much higher.

Case (confirmed) fatality rate is about 3.7%. Current "active" confirmed cases are 1.89 million. So it's reasonable to expect that up to about 70,000 of current "active cases" may die in coming weeks. And as Fauci says - this isn't a "second wave" - we're only knee deep in the first wave".

It's true that Infection Fatality Rate (deaths per all cases - confirmed and unconfirmed) should be falling. Clinical management has improved, mechanical ventilation used less frequently (now avoided unless extremely severe - better to avoid that and use oxygen and prone position to assist breathing/clearing the lungs) steroid treatment for severe cases to reduce acute respiratory symptoms, some anti-virals (remdesivir) reduce mortality slightly. But right now, I think it's at the tip of an iceberg. WHO and Fauci seem to agree - even if it's an "inconvenient truth" for governments to face.

KrazyKid

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#2525169 18-Jul-2020 13:35

Interesting account from a person who went though the managed isolation process recently. Sounds fairly rigorous.

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/surprised-%E2%80%98military-%E2%80%99-process-arrival

Dingbatt

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#2525171 18-Jul-2020 13:40

I note in the same report (CDC) the high percentage of Native American deaths. I wonder if that is in part due to isolation which means their immune systems aren’t exposed to as much on a day to day basis, and when something really nasty comes along they get hit harder. Add to that, a generally lower standard of living to make access to healthcare more difficult and things are stacked against them.

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

Fred99

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#2525175 18-Jul-2020 13:50

Dingbatt:

I note in the same report (CDC) the high percentage of Native American deaths. I wonder if that is in part due to isolation which means their immune systems aren’t exposed to as much on a day to day basis, and when something really nasty comes along they get hit harder. Add to that, a generally lower standard of living to make access to healthcare more difficult and things are stacked against them.

I'd guess it's mainly the latter - generally lower standard of living correlates not just with reduced access to healthcare, but increased incidence of the co-morbidities (obesity, diabetes, CVD etc etc).

On the increased number of cases then NY Times graphic today shows the trend between increased number of cases and increased deaths over 14 days.

Dingbatt

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#2525179 18-Jul-2020 13:57

Shouldn’t the deaths lag the infections by about two weeks though? If deaths are up 43% from a fortnight ago and now infections are up another 43% then in a fortnight from now......wow!

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

Handle9

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#2525185 18-Jul-2020 14:13

cshwone:
Handle9:

Yawn, ignoring the point.

Yawn, ignoring the fact that the world has changed and we will have to find new ways of doing international business. New Zealand will not be alone in having restrictions on movement. From the simple fact of having to factor in quarantine (isolation) requirements depending on where in the world you have gone (do you have to isolate on arrival in another country and WFH in a foreign hotel) to isolating on arriving back here for two weeks (which would be effectively WFH but not actually at home). If people were comfortable with the WFH during lockdown the fact that you are in a hotel somewhere in the world shouldn't make you any less productive. It will be an extra financial cost of doing business.

Critical reviews of what international engagement is required. Numbers of people travelling. Shaping schedules to minimise the number of times you have to travel etc.Shaping schedules to minimise isolation requirements.

Business visitors coming here co-ordinating with visits to "bubble" partners which assuming Australia is what many North American and European businesses did anyway.

It's all a new dynamic and people will make it work.

The rest of the world is slowly resuming international travel. Much of the rest of the world is also far more economically significant than New Zealand. In many ways it's a terribly difficult market to do business in and it's just not very compelling. It's small and in a difficult time zone.

I know of a number of redundancies that happened recently that may have even avoided had the parent company management been able to visit.

What is New Zealands plan to keep things moving, other than subsidies? This isn't about the next 3 months, it's likely a multi year problem. Many billions of dollars have been taken out of the New Zealand economy and it's not coming back. Those subsidies are stopping soon so what happens next?

Fred99

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#2525186 18-Jul-2020 14:16

Dingbatt:

Shouldn’t the deaths lag the infections by about two weeks though? If deaths are up 43% from a fortnight ago and now infections are up another 43% then in a fortnight from now......wow!

They'll lag - but I guess that over the past weeks both trends have been consistent enough so that doubling rates of both are similar.

I think deaths following confirmed infection lag by more than two weeks - two weeks is more like an average start point where severe cases start deteriorating.

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