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Fred99
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  #2541121 14-Aug-2020 15:47
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debo:
Fred99:

 

So they're doing genome testing on retained samples from positive cases picked up in quarantine in attempt to match with the virus in the cluster.  So far no match found, but if and when there is a match, then you've probably found the index case.  If you don't find a match after testing all samples, then that strengthens the case that the virus got in through an undectected case through quarantine, or on contaminated chilled/frozen cargo.

 

 

 

 

 


It's weird. They had mapped out the genome of the new cases by yesterday but have not ruled out a connection yet. It sounds like they have waited for an outbreak to occur before they started mapping out all the previous cases. Very reactionary.
However, once mapped out, there is another interesting result they case look for. What if some of the previous cases have identical genomes but the returnees came from different places? It may indicate that people have been infected at the quarantine facilities.

 

I guess that's possible - or they arrived on the same flights after transiting.

 

As per @batman post above, we're now up to 4 or 5 positive tests after arrival at destination for people leaving NZ.  Quite a lot of positives tests on day 12 for arrivals who tested negative on day 3.  I think international air travel risk is vastly underestimated / talked down by the industry.  You want to share a tiny dunny with dozens of other folks from wherever in the middle of a global pandemic - or hold on for 12 hours?




Oblivian
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  #2541126 14-Aug-2020 16:00
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Before being that speculative.

 

Be wary of hanging on these articles. They're all trying to beat each other to the punch, and dynamically changing.

 

It has been edited multiple times. Now pointing out they BOTH transited Singapore. At least 5 days ago. And since positive. You can't point the finger and NZ transmission without genome and or further investigation. 

 

Despite hearalds unlinked pitchfork articles.


FineWine
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  #2541128 14-Aug-2020 16:06
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Fred99:

 

FineWine:

 

But if this latest CT episode/s has been caused by Fomites transmission then we are in deep S**T.

 

I think i's possible but not very likely - hasn't really been confirmed with a high level of confidence elsewhere, in our original outbreaks where NZ did very well on contact tracing and containment, it wasn't reported.

 

Anyway, consider it added incentive to eliminate C-19 again.  NZ exports a lot of chilled/frozen food, if in the unlikely event it's found that such fomite transmission is a real threat, then NZ could be hit very hard by potential import restrictions in our markets.

 

I'm more optimistic about a vaccine, that it'll be very effective, and that the virus won't mutate to evade immunity very fast.  It's not like the 'flu - that has segmented RNA, if RNA from two strains infect the same cell, then routinely the segments can recombine to form a new "hybrid" strain.  It's possible that C-19 did appear as a novel strain by recombination, but that probably happened in an animal vector infected with two similar viruses - not in humans. (Nor in a "Wuhan lab")

 

Thank you for the clarification and the clarity of your answer. As usual you are the Dr Siouxsie Wiles of these COVID forums. However, the horrible contemplative thought is still there. ☹️





Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.




frankv
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  #2541137 14-Aug-2020 16:34
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mkissin:

 

frankv:

 

About 10% of covid patients need hospitalisation, I think. So one patient unconnected to the cluster who arrives at a hospital means 9 covid-positive people at large in the community.

 

 

That's not how statistics works.

 

If you have a male baby that doesn't mean you also had a female baby because it was a 50/50 chance.

 

 

I should have said "probably". If there are 100 balls in a jar, 10 of them black, and you keep pulling them out until you get a black one, chances are you will have taken out about 10. Yes, you might have pulled out just 1, or you might have pulled out 91, but probably it will be close to 10.

 

 


antonknee
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  #2541145 14-Aug-2020 16:48
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I find it interesting that of these people who leave NZ and test postive overseas, so far to my recollection, most seem to have transited through Singapore. At least these most recent two have. I suspect the link here is air travel rather than NZ itself. Small space with lots of other people, recycled air, etc.

 

I feel fairly sure if we had undetected community transmission we would have seen signs of this earlier - cases popping up, people in hospital, highly symptomatic people, something.


mattwnz
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  #2541149 14-Aug-2020 16:54
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frankv:

 

mkissin:

 

 

 

That's not how statistics works.

 

If you have a male baby that doesn't mean you also had a female baby because it was a 50/50 chance.

 

 

I should have said "probably". If there are 100 balls in a jar, 10 of them black, and you keep pulling them out until you get a black one, chances are you will have taken out about 10. Yes, you might have pulled out just 1, or you might have pulled out 91, but probably it will be close to 10.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Although a certain percentage of the population needs hospitalization, that also depends on the sector of society it is transmitting through. I would imagine that if it was mainly circulation through younger groups of people, which this appears to be doing, eg under 60, then a smaller percentage of people would need hospitalization. That is compared to it getting into  a resthome, and affecting a higher percentage of people.

 

Also if it is affecting overstayers, will they go to a hospital or get a test, if they risk being put into a quarantine facility and possibly then deported?


 
 
 

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mattwnz
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  #2541152 14-Aug-2020 16:58
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antonknee:

 

I find it interesting that of these people who leave NZ and test postive overseas, so far to my recollection, most seem to have transited through Singapore. At least these most recent two have. I suspect the link here is air travel rather than NZ itself. Small space with lots of other people, recycled air, etc.

 

I feel fairly sure if we had undetected community transmission we would have seen signs of this earlier - cases popping up, people in hospital, highly symptomatic people, something.

 

 

I recall them saying that those cases were of people who already had the virus prior to lockdown. So they are historic cases, but they do still test positive.

 

I am wondering though, if they can't find any link,whether they have got infected through virus remnants somewhere. There is still alot we don't know about this virus after all. They aren't discounting it coming in on frozen products. But a leak at the border is the most likely route I would have thought, especially as it occurred in Auckland, where the incoming travelers are al lcoming through, and where most isolation hotels and workers are.


antonknee
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  #2541207 14-Aug-2020 17:35
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Incredibly interesting the genome is totally different to NZ's last outbreak. PM says it appears to be "totally new to NZ". Indicating no burning embers of it in the community while we were at level 2/level 1 - but doesn't answer the question about where it came from.

 

Still saying they haven't found a link to the border/MIQ, but that the oldest confirmed case is not who they thought it was. And so the mystery continues and the plot thickens.


vexxxboy
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  #2541209 14-Aug-2020 17:39
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antonknee:

 

Incredibly interesting the genome is totally different to NZ's last outbreak. PM says it appears to be "totally new to NZ". Indicating no burning embers of it in the community while we were at level 2/level 1 - but doesn't answer the question about where it came from.

 

Still saying they haven't found a link to the border/MIQ, but that the oldest confirmed case is not who they thought it was. And so the mystery continues and the plot thickens.

 

 

she also said we may never know.





Common sense is not as common as you think.


heavenlywild
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  #2541213 14-Aug-2020 17:45
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This lock down method of any level is financially unsustainable. I don't have a solution but how many times can we afford to do this?

tdgeek
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  #2541223 14-Aug-2020 17:51
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heavenlywild: This lock down method of any level is financially unsustainable. I don't have a solution but how many times can we afford to do this?

 

L3 for AKL isn't L4 for 5 weeks, no not ideal, but as this is one outbreak, its not the same as March 27 all over again. 


 
 
 

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heavenlywild
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  #2541230 14-Aug-2020 17:55
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tdgeek:

heavenlywild: This lock down method of any level is financially unsustainable. I don't have a solution but how many times can we afford to do this?


L3 for AKL isn't L4 for 5 weeks, no not ideal, but as this is one outbreak, its not the same as March 27 all over again. 



I understand that but any day above L2 ruins livelihoods. Yes, we need to save lives but there needs to be a balance.

There'll be many more outbreaks unfortunately.

antonknee
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  #2541240 14-Aug-2020 18:01
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heavenlywild:

I understand that but any day above L2 ruins livelihoods. Yes, we need to save lives but there needs to be a balance.

There'll be many more outbreaks unfortunately.

 

And what is that balance? 

 

If it was your family member or friend who died from this virus, how would you feel? 

 

Dead and sick people do not spend money either, and places without lockdowns or with weak lockdowns are suffering very, very badly economically.

 

Level 3 is a much higher rate of activity than at level 4 - a lot of business can still operate in some form, and it's likely this will give us the certainty of being back at level 1.


tdgeek
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  #2541245 14-Aug-2020 18:11
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antonknee:

 

 

 

And what is that balance? 

 

If it was your family member or friend who died from this virus, how would you feel? 

 

Dead and sick people do not spend money either, and places without lockdowns or with weak lockdowns are suffering very, very badly economically.

 

Level 3 is a much higher rate of activity than at level 4 - a lot of business can still operate in some form, and it's likely this will give us the certainty of being back at level 1.

 

 

This outbreak is currently one cluster and the known infections are now out of circulation. Massive testing, and contact tracing will go a long way to holding control.


Batman

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  #2541248 14-Aug-2020 18:23
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watching the news (TV1) and said a cook island GP tests positive in AKL - anyone knows if they have linked him to the cluster? the news said the only link so far is his clinic is near Americold


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