Revised Trans Tasman travel bubble concept based on new AU “hotspot model”.  Potentially only one-way initially (NZ > AU).  Will be up to NZ to decide when/if AU > NZ travel can occur.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/national-cabinet-makes-promising-strides-towards-travel-bubble-with-new-zealand-c-1292265

WA the only AU state not in recession. 

Also, the only state rejecting a plan to reopen interstate borders by Christmas under the new 'hotspot' model.  Holding firm on keeping its borders closed until WA health advice recommends relaxation of their current restrictions.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-04/wa-the-only-state-not-opening-coronavirus-hard-border/12629522

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

 

I made this point previously, but I suspect if we didn't have genome testing, like we didn't during the first outbreak, then some of these may have been considered independent clusters. Especially where they haven't been able to link the clusters epidemiologically. I understand there is still one case of concern that they still can't link epidemiologically, only via genome, which indicates that at least one person has it which they haven't found, which is apparently one reason they aren't considering moving down levels. There was also a case around Hobbiton, which they aren't 100% sure about, as it apparently isn't linked to the other cases, but it maybe a historical infection.

 

I also heard the PM say that conferences are a concern, because of the 'social events' that occur with conferences. In the first outbreak, I understand there was a big cluster involving a conference. So I do wonder if it is even wise allowing conferences, and whether they should remove those from the list in level 2. But is is still way too early to tell what effect level 2 is going to have on the spread, to even entertain the idea of Auckland moving down a level, and due to the border being open, NZ is all stuck at a similar level. It may have been wise for NZ to do things more similar to Australia, and keep state borders closed for no essential travel.

Dont think so

Queensland also reluctant on opening borders but does have border town issues to deal with, unlike WA. 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-04/coronavirus-queensland-border-restrictions-lift-bubble-expanded/12628364

A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged As bradykinin builds up in the body, it dramatically increases vascular permeability. In short, it makes your blood vessels leaky. This aligns with recent clinical data, which increasingly views Covid-19 primarily as a vascular disease, rather than a respiratory one. But Covid-19 still has a massive effect on the lungs. As blood vessels start to leak due to a bradykinin storm, the researchers say, the lungs can fill with fluid. Immune cells also leak out into the lungs, Jacobson’s team found, causing inflammation.

And Covid-19 has another especially insidious trick. Through another pathway, the team’s data shows, it increases production of hyaluronic acid (HLA) in the lungs. HLA is often used in soaps and lotions for its ability to absorb more than 1,000 times its weight in fluid. When it combines with fluid leaking into the lungs, the results are disastrous: It forms a hydrogel, which can fill the lungs in some patients. According to Jacobson, once this happens, “it’s like trying to breathe through Jell-O.”

mattwnz:

Time will tell. If we start to get cases occurring outside Auckland from the cluster, it will show that the border opened too early.

What do you suggest? Keep AKL in Level 3 indefinitely? Its a case of diminishing returns, you harm AKL economy and education while most cases we see are already in MIQ or already isolating due to cluster contact, both of which offer no spread. If you want no cases then Level 4 NZ again to be sure. Or Level 4 AKL for another 3 weeks plus. But you are then providing huge harm for little gain. The plan now as it was in March is to limit hosts, then the virus can't go anywhere. If we see cases drying up, then the annoying flouters poses less and less risk every day as in the population of 5 million, or AKL's 1.7 million, its drying up. Im March we were dealing with voluntary international border isolation, now we aren't, so it is a lot tighter now, and its working as it did in March. 

But if you want an instant fix, Level 4 all of us for 4 weeks from today

Early on there was a lot of debate over health vs economy. Today, the pendulum has swung the other way, as its working in our favour, despite more flouters and despite only Level 3.

DS248:

 

Revised Trans Tasman travel bubble concept based on new AU “hotspot model”.  Potentially only one-way initially (NZ > AU).  Will be up to NZ to decide when/if AU > NZ travel can occur.

 

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/national-cabinet-makes-promising-strides-towards-travel-bubble-with-new-zealand-c-1292265

 

Hell, no.

The only people who plan on seeing any benefit on this are those lobbying to make money of this traffic. Everyone else will be just collateral damage. 

Dr Joe Williams, former Cook Islands PM, died but not clear yet if directly related to his covid-19 infection.

"If his passing is linked to Covid-19 he would become New Zealand's 24th death. Williams, 82, was admitted to hospital after he became sick when it is thought he may have come in close contact to someone connected to the initial Auckland cluster. His Mt Wellington practice is not far from the Americold coolstore."

tdgeek:

 

What do you suggest? Keep AKL in Level 3 indefinitely? Its a case of diminishing returns, you harm AKL economy and education while most cases we see are already in MIQ or already isolating due to cluster contact, both of which offer no spread. If you want no cases then Level 4 NZ again to be sure. Or Level 4 AKL for another 3 weeks plus. But you are then providing huge harm for little gain. The plan now as it was in March is to limit hosts, then the virus can't go anywhere. If we see cases drying up, then the annoying flouters poses less and less risk every day as in the population of 5 million, or AKL's 1.7 million, its drying up. Im March we were dealing with voluntary international border isolation, now we aren't, so it is a lot tighter now, and its working as it did in March. 

 

But if you want an instant fix, Level 4 all of us for 4 weeks from today

 

Early on there was a lot of debate over health vs economy. Today, the pendulum has swung the other way, as its working in our favour, despite more flouters and despite only Level 3.

 

Better to close the international border and cancel all inbound flights than seal off Auckland.  This is only happening in Auckland because that's where the vast majority of inbound passengers arrive.  

shk292:

 

Better to close the international border and cancel all inbound flights than seal off Auckland.  This is only happening in Auckland because that's where the vast majority of inbound passengers arrive.  

 

You could do that and orphan 40,000 Kiwis and residents. Genome shows it didn't come from the border as it doesnt match the other border infections genomes. 

tdgeek:

 

You could do that and orphan 40,000 Kiwis and residents. Genome shows it didn't come from the border as it doesnt match the other border infections genomes. 

 

Where else could it possibly have come from?  We have thousands of inbound travelers every week, law of probability says that we are going to get infections from this, it's just a matter of how often.  Sure, total closure is problematic but maybe we could reduce that number significantly and in doing so, increase the time between outbreaks.

tdgeek:

 

shk292:

 

Better to close the international border and cancel all inbound flights than seal off Auckland.  This is only happening in Auckland because that's where the vast majority of inbound passengers arrive.  

 

 

You could do that and orphan 40,000 Kiwis and residents. Genome shows it didn't come from the border as it doesnt match the other border infections genomes. 

 

That doesn't mean it didn't come from the border / MIQ.  It just means it didn't match cases picked up at the border (which is never going to be 100%).

shk292:

 

tdgeek:

 

You could do that and orphan 40,000 Kiwis and residents. Genome shows it didn't come from the border as it doesnt match the other border infections genomes. 

 

 

Where else could it possibly have come from?  We have thousands of inbound travelers every week, law of probability says that we are going to get infections from this, it's just a matter of how often.  Sure, total closure is problematic but maybe we could reduce that number significantly and in doing so, increase the time between outbreaks.

 

I believe that Australia were planning to limit the numbers of people returning.  We were too - but by reducing the number of flights, rather then directly.  It's more than just a straight numbers game too - risk "per returnee" increases the more return, unless you can guarantee the same quality of isolation in MIQ for 3,000/week as you could for 1,000/week.

"Coronavirus: Russian vaccine shows signs of immune response"

 

Russian scientists have published the first report on their coronavirus vaccine, saying early tests showed signs of an immune response.

 

The report published by medical journal The Lancet said every participant developed antibodies to fight the virus and had no serious side effects.

 

Russia licensed the vaccine for local use in August, the first country to do so and before data had been published.

 

Experts say the trials were too small to prove effectiveness and safety.

 

The participants - aged between 18 and 60 - were monitored for 42 days and all of them developed antibodies within three weeks. Among the most common side effects were headaches and joint pain.

 

The trials were open label and not randomised, meaning there was no placebo and the volunteers were aware they were receiving the vaccine.

 

"Large, long-term trials including a placebo comparison, and further monitoring are needed to establish the long-term safety and effectiveness of the vaccine for preventing Covid-19 infection," the report said.