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GV27
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  #3024327 19-Jan-2023 19:50
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tdgeek:

 

Agree. Hipkins was a face, that's all. Parker is a clean option, maybe too nice, you need to be a bit more aggressive. Opposition makes it easier though, which is 90% going to be the case

 

 

Parker isn't it. Managed to piss everyone off by going mountain biking under lockdown. Also had some run ins from the Clark era, that's how long he's been around. 




tdgeek
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  #3024329 19-Jan-2023 19:59
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GV27:

 

Parker isn't it. Managed to piss everyone off by going mountain biking under lockdown. Also had some run ins from the Clark era, that's how long he's been around. 

 

 

Wasn't that David Clark? I stand to be corrected though.


GV27
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  #3024338 19-Jan-2023 20:50
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tdgeek:

 

Wasn't that David Clark? I stand to be corrected though.

 

 

The fact I've managed to confuse them kind of tells you all you need to know. But yes, you're right.

 

Kiritapu Allan as a lock for deputy, I reckon, that's set in stone. If she says she wants it, she'll get it. 

 

Question is, in a field of no-clear-winners, could she want more? IMO she should, she is likeable and capable.




gzt

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  #3024351 19-Jan-2023 21:55
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This is a surprise. This certainly was not driven by any drop in personal popularity or electability. The poll numbers did not show a certain win but certainly showed a winnable situation. I hope Labour have sorted out the plays for the next leader already and some idea of keeping the key positions and then a massive focus on the election. It's going to be messy for the country if they haven't. Of the people I'm familiar with from the tv Hipkins would be my quick choice.

DS9

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  #3024352 19-Jan-2023 21:57
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I couldn't care less who takes over as leader and subsequently becomes PM, as it will be short lived (hopefully), what does worry me is that no one in the media or in public commentary for that matter, seems to be concerned that Jacinda set the date of the election before resigning, this should have been the new leaders/PM first responsibility.




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K8Toledo
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  #3024445 19-Jan-2023 21:58
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Ardern's resignation made the New York Times front page.

 

 

 

 

Jacinda Ardern, who became a global liberal icon as New Zealand’s prime minister but faced deepening political challenges with an election looming at home, said in a surprise announcement on Thursday that she would step down as the country’s leader.

 

In a tearful speech in the New Zealand city of Napier, where Ms. Ardern’s Labour Party was hosting its summer caucus retreat, she said she did not feel personally prepared to complete another term. She will leave office by Feb. 7, she said.

 

“I believe that leading a country is the most privileged job anyone could ever have, but also one of the more challenging,” Ms. Ardern said. “You cannot and should not do it unless you have a full tank plus a bit in reserve for those unexpected challenges.”

 

She added: “This has been the most fulfilling five and a half years of my life. I am leaving because with such a privileged job comes a big responsibility.”

 

Labour lawmakers will elect a new leader of the party — and the country — in three days’ time, Ms. Ardern said.

 

Ms. Ardern, 42, became prime minister in 2017 and won a historic re-election victory in 2020, largely on the strength of New Zealand’s response to Covid, which allowed residents to live a mostly normal life for much of the pandemic. But her party has since fallen sharply in the polls amid economic troubles and some highly publicized instances of violent crime.

 

Soon after her unexpected rise to power as New Zealand’s youngest prime minister in 150 years, Ms. Ardern became something of an international celebrity. She had a daughter while in office and brought her to the floor of the United Nations. To admirers, she became the sunny face of progressivism, and a welcome alternative to the politics represented by then-President Donald J. Trump in the United States.

 

But it was her response in 2019 to the massacre of 51 people at two mosques in Christchurch, by a gunman espousing anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant hatred, that solidified her image as a hero of the global left. “We represent diversity, kindness, compassion. A home for those who share our values. Refuge for those who need it,” she said at the time of New Zealand. Within a week, Ms. Ardern had imposed temporary restrictions on the purchase of guns, followed by the passing of a law a few weeks later that banned most semiautomatic weapons.

 

Ms. Ardern said she had informed party members earlier Thursday of her decision to resign. She said she would remain a member of Parliament for her electorate in the city of Auckland until April, in order to avoid the need for a by-election.

 

Labour has been facing major political challenges ahead of the Oct. 14 election. For almost a year, the party has polled behind the center-right National Party, led by Christopher Luxon, a former aviation executive. As of December, support for Labour was at 33 percent, compared with 38 percent for the National Party.

 

Still, Ms. Ardern has remained personally popular with the electorate. She has regularly outperformed Mr. Luxon in polls as most New Zealanders’ “preferred prime minister.”

 

 

 

Mr. Luxon said last month that the polls showed New Zealanders felt the country was going in the “wrong direction.” He added: “What they can see is a government that’s just not getting things done.”

 

Voters are principally concerned about the many economic issues the country faces. Home prices in New Zealand, which surged over the past decade, fell 12 percent in 2022. Borrowers, most of whom are able to fix their mortgage rate for only a few years at a time, are at high risk of negative equity, as they balance a high cost of living and surging inflation with the twin catastrophes of falling home prices and rising interest rates.

 

A perceived rise in violent crime, including high-profile incidents in which employees of corner stores have been attacked and in one case killed, has also contributed to a sense of dissatisfaction.

 

Ben Thomas, a political commentator and former press secretary for the National Party, said Ms. Ardern’s resignation would come as a surprise for many New Zealanders and could spell disaster for Labour.

 

“She’s Labour’s number one political asset,” he said. “It would very much be a personal decision to step down, as opposed to a considered strategy about what would be best for Labour in the election.”

 

In her remarks, Ms. Ardern addressed her partner, the television presenter Clarke Gayford, and their 5-year-old daughter Neve. They were, she said, “the ones that have sacrificed the most out of all of us.”

 

“To Neve: Mum is looking forward to being there when you start school this year,” she said. “And to Clarke — let’s finally get married.”

 

In resigning almost a year before a general election, Ms. Ardern follows closely in the footsteps of a recent predecessor, John Key, who stepped down in 2016, allowing his deputy, Bill English, to take his place as leader of the National Party and prime minister.

 

But there is no obvious successor to Ms. Ardern. Grant Robertson, Labour’s deputy leader, will not seek the leadership, Ms. Ardern said. Any candidate seeking to lead Labour must have the support of at least two-thirds of its lawmakers, a requirement that raises the prospect of a power vacuum, prolonged infighting and a relative newcomer, at least in voters’ eyes, leading the party and the country.


gzt

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  #3024491 19-Jan-2023 22:12
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DS9: I couldn't care less who takes over as leader and subsequently becomes PM, as it will be short lived (hopefully),

It's important to me. To a large extent it will decide the team and policies they will take to the next election. That's my main concern. Personally I generally support Three Waters and see it as logical evolution in several areas of policy. There's been a lot of racist nutjobbery in the background and not much rational discussion. TW will lead to increased respect for New Zealand's national resources and indigenous perspectives. Realistically, if parameters are exceeded even by a little bit any government at all will tidy it up pretty quickly. Short story, meaningful governance and contribution of another local perspective, nothing to worry about, and in fact a net positive for NZ.

 
 
 

Move to New Zealand's best fibre broadband service (affiliate link). Free setup code: R587125ERQ6VE. Note that to use Quic Broadband you must be comfortable with configuring your own router.

gzt

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  #3024494 19-Jan-2023 22:27
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DS9: what does worry me is that no one in the media or in public commentary for that matter, seems to be concerned that Jacinda set the date of the election before resigning, this should have been the new leaders/PM first responsibility.

The reason is, this is by far the best way to provide some certainty. Excellent decision. Without it you have months of speculation about an election date leading to all kinds of uncertainties.

DS9

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  #3024495 19-Jan-2023 22:33
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gzt:
DS9: I couldn't care less who takes over as leader and subsequently becomes PM, as it will be short lived (hopefully),

It's important to me. To a large extent it will decide the team and policies they will take to the next election. That's my main concern. Personally I generally support Three Waters and see it as logical evolution in several areas of policy. There's been a lot of racist nutjobbery in the background and not much rational discussion. It will lead to increased respect for New Zealand's national resources and indigenous perspectives. Realistically, if parameters are exceeded even by a little bit any government at all will tidy it up pretty quickly. Short story, meaningful governance and contribution of another local perspective, nothing to worry about, and in fact a net positive for NZ.


I'm glad you took this quote and then took it out of context, as it proved my original point in the full comment. To your point, you may be right, but constitutional matters, such as co-governance should be only passed by super majorities or referenda, especially as we are no longer a bicultural, but multicultural society and no singular race/ethnicity etc should be elevated to 50% entrenched voting rights, that is going to be the cause of true devision and racism.




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gzt

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  #3024498 19-Jan-2023 22:47
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K8Toledo:

Ardern's resignation made the New York Times front page.

From that I learned Labour will elect a new leader within three days. Robertson will not put his hat forward as the candidate for leader. All very good, excellent and sensible decisions.

gzt

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  #3024502 19-Jan-2023 23:04
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DS9: [...]co-governance should be only passed by super majorities or referenda, especially as we are no longer a bicultural, but multicultural society and no singular race/ethnicity etc should be elevated to 50% entrenched voting rights, that is going to be the cause of true devision and racism.

Both National and Labour, and even to a large extent the ACT Party have voted for legislation of this nature in the past and will do so again. As for the 50% voting rights - you have to actually ask what that is for. Governance board representation is not the same thing at all.

alexx
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  #3024510 19-Jan-2023 23:58
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She has been getting death threats for some time now and these have risen quite a lot in the last year or so. She has a young child and as someone mentioned earlier, about to be starting school soon. I'm surprised, but perhaps in retrospect it shouldn't be a complete surprise.





#include <standard.disclaimer>


GV27
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  #3024517 20-Jan-2023 06:33
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gzt: . TW will lead to increased respect for New Zealand's national resources and indigenous perspectives. Realistically, if parameters are exceeded even by a little bit any government at all will tidy it up pretty quickly. Short story, meaningful governance and contribution of another local perspective, nothing to worry about, and in fact a net positive for NZ.

 

3W has genuinely been a bad-faith legislative exercise and featured a cabinet minister undermining a Prime Minister and Cabinet without any sanction whatsoever over the entrenchment fiasco.

 

At every step, the government has taken the most inflammatory option possible. It's ignored formal feedback, legislative submissions, expanded it during the legislative process and passed it under urgency. And that's before you get into the core issues with the structure of the 3W/5W program itself, without touching anything to do with the indigenous or co-governance aspects.

 

I genuinely do not understand how people can defend anything about 3W except for the stated aim of 'clean drinking water and swimmable rivers', which is one of those things you say that no one can possibly disagree with unless they want to look like some sort of monster. You just have to hope that no one looks too far into the detail, process or whether it's likely to work or not. I mean if you ignore those minor issues, then yea, maybe it will be a net positive. 


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  #3024519 20-Jan-2023 07:08
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Talking to my right-wing mother and stepfather (a farmer) last night, the latter tried to tell me that "99% of people are celebrating" her resignation; when I pressed him on this he said maybe it was 99% of the farming community, which I could believe. He then said he thought David Seymour would win the next election, I just about fell over laughing, thinking that unless Act has some massive load of support that's been hiding itself for the last 20 years, that one has a slim-to-nil chance of happening.

 

My mother however thought that Nicola Willis(?) could actually become the next PM at the election - something I hadn't thought about before, but think back to 2017: Andrew Little was going down, he stepped aside and Jacinda became PM in a very short time. Could history repeat itself in 2023? (For the record, my stepdad thought Luxon had "no hope" as "he's a soft-c--k").


tdgeek
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  #3024523 20-Jan-2023 07:31
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GV27:

 

The fact I've managed to confuse them kind of tells you all you need to know. But yes, you're right.

 

Kiritapu Allan as a lock for deputy, I reckon, that's set in stone. If she says she wants it, she'll get it. 

 

Question is, in a field of no-clear-winners, could she want more? IMO she should, she is likeable and capable.

 

 

Hipkins makes the most sense. Been in the public eye, capable, and he is centrist not left

 

Allan is inexperienced, but she is capable, an ideal candidate for the future with a period in Opposition. 


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