2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2662410 25-Feb-2021 00:16

sbiddle:

mattwnz:

What I haven't heard discussed is how of the people are going to need to be vaccinated. Sounds like it will be at least annually and a constant cycle.

I'm not sure where you read that - there is absolutely nothing to suggest there will be a need for annual vaccinations.

Right now we don't know exactly how long protection will last (some people who contracted other Coronaviruses in the past such SARS in 2002 still have antibododies and t-cell protection) so it can't be ruled out that booster vaccines may be required in the future if strains mutate, but there is certainly no expert anywhere that says it will need to be an annual vaccine like a flu shot.

I have heard it quite a bit in the overseas media, and it is discussed here.

https://www.abc10.com/article/entertainment/television/programs/why-guy-question/how-long-does-the-vaccine-last-why-guy/103-efbfbc97-49ec-4ee1-86fc-63eea31fc474

But, long term, as a hypothetical, the Pfizer vaccine could last a year where the Moderna could be eight months. Dr. Payal Kohli, ABC10's medical expert also says "antibodies can wane over time, as early as 2-3 months, and reinfection is a possibility. If a vaccine immunity behaves like natural immunity, then we'll likely have to get it every year like a flu shot."

But as you said they don't know how long it lasts, whether it be months or years. But shouldn't we be preparing that it could be regular thing like the flu vaccine, because it isn't going away anytime soon.

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#2662421 25-Feb-2021 05:52

Batman: Queensland travel bubble on hold. That's like a week too late? Or did I read it wrong

https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/124352657/queensland-halts-travel-bubble-with-new-zealand-from-tonight

I did wonder if it was actually tit-for-tat as opposed to anything outbreak related. The NSW premier was harping on yesterday about how it wasn't fair that Aussies still had to isolate in NZ but Kiwis didn't going to Queensland, and that she hoped our PM would change that asap.

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#2662430 25-Feb-2021 07:22

Ge0rge:
Batman: Queensland travel bubble on hold. That's like a week too late? Or did I read it wrong

https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/124352657/queensland-halts-travel-bubble-with-new-zealand-from-tonight

I did wonder if it was actually tit-for-tat as opposed to anything outbreak related. The NSW premier was harping on yesterday about how it wasn't fair that Aussies still had to isolate in NZ but Kiwis didn't going to Queensland, and that she hoped our PM would change that asap.

It's very much tit for tat.. And in Australia state politics and the differences between Labor and Liberal states.

The simple reality is that if you look at things purely from a risk based perspective Australia has had fewer CT cases than NZ. Over the past 40 days or so with zero CT in NSW and Queensland (along with WA who went 10 months with no CT) then there has nearly always been a much higher risk of NZ exporting Covid to Australia than people from Australia bringing it here

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#2662432 25-Feb-2021 07:32

Johnson and Johnson single dose vaccine about to be approved by fda

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56186965

I wonder if other manufacturers will suddenly discover that their vaccines only need a single shot too

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#2662435 25-Feb-2021 07:45

Many many unanswered questions, come back in 6 months to get the answers.

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#2662438 25-Feb-2021 08:01

Batman: Johnson and Johnson single dose vaccine about to be approved by fda

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56186965

I wonder if other manufacturers will suddenly discover that their vaccines only need a single shot too

I'm guessing you haven't been following the full story around this vaccine.

It's been very delayed in getting to market, and they're facing major production issues with it, but one of the key selling points (the single dose) is also subject to change. The efficacy results have come in significantly lower than other vaccines, so they're working in parallel on late state trials to see whether giving people a second dose will improve the efficacy results of the vaccine and bring it closer to others - something J&J believe will be the case.

If you are to look at efficacy and real world data it's pretty clear a single dose of existing vaccines delivers great results after a single shot, but the 2nd booster dose improves upon that. I think ultimately this vaccine will end up being the same, but the beauty is they can get it signed off for a a single shot rather than two shots and delay the booster. The additional selling point however is that it doesn't require the same storage requirements that mRNA vaccines do.

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#2662440 25-Feb-2021 08:10

I did see last night the US will have 400m doses of vaccines by the start of July. It's going to be interesting to see how quickly they can actually get through their population.

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#2662493 25-Feb-2021 08:21

There's still quite a lot of work being done on dosages and timings. Astra-zenaca, which quite similar to the J&J vaccine appears to work much better with a longer period between doses. Efficacy was markedly better with a 12 week gap between doses.

I had AZ 2 weeks ago, and was originally scheduled to get the second dose on the 9th of March. It was announced yesterday that this will be pushed out to 10 weeks in line with the latest findings.

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#2662495 25-Feb-2021 08:24

sbiddle:
I did see last night the US will have 400m doses of vaccines by the start of July. It's going to be interesting to see how quickly they can actually get through their population.

They are moving fast. They're up to 65 million doses at 1.28 million doses a day for the last week.

I read by April they expect to be at 3 million doses per day.

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#2662548 25-Feb-2021 09:13

mattwnz:

But, long term, as a hypothetical, the Pfizer vaccine could last a year where the Moderna could be eight months. Dr. Payal Kohli, ABC10's medical expert also says "antibodies can wane over time, as early as 2-3 months, and reinfection is a possibility. If a vaccine immunity behaves like natural immunity, then we'll likely have to get it every year like a flu shot."

But as you said they don't know how long it lasts, whether it be months or years. But shouldn't we be preparing that it could be regular thing like the flu vaccine, because it isn't going away anytime soon.

The key point in that quote is "If a vaccine immunity behaves like natural immunity,"... and certainly in the case of the Pfizer vaccine the entire process is different, so the jury is definitely still out on that question,,,

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#2662556 25-Feb-2021 09:36

The Spanish flu took 2.5 years to extinguish (with high losses) without any known modern treatment or vaccination. We're past year 1 now ...

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#2662603 25-Feb-2021 11:29

Tinkerisk:

The Spanish flu took 2.5 years to extinguish (with high losses) without any known modern treatment or vaccination. We're past year 1 now ...

With a much smaller world population with much less mobility.

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#2662637 25-Feb-2021 13:14

mattwnz:

But, long term, as a hypothetical, the Pfizer vaccine could last a year where the Moderna could be eight months. Dr. Payal Kohli, ABC10's medical expert also says "antibodies can wane over time, as early as 2-3 months, and reinfection is a possibility. If a vaccine immunity behaves like natural immunity, then we'll likely have to get it every year like a flu shot."

But as you said they don't know how long it lasts, whether it be months or years. But shouldn't we be preparing that it could be regular thing like the flu vaccine, because it isn't going away anytime soon.

Some people have been documented as being infected twice by covid within a year, so in some cases natural immunity doesn't last very long. But the numbers are very small. We don't know how many *didn't* get infected a second time, despite being exposed again.

Unless there's two of them, Payal Kohli appears to be a cardiologist, so her understanding may not be much better than yours or mine when it comes to epidemiology. The statement above is full of vagueries: "hypothetical", "can ...", "as early as", "a possibility", "if ... then". Obviously immunity lifespan is not well-understood, at least by her.

What are the odds of eradicating covid (in which case immunity is irrelevant)? If enough people are vaccinated, R0 will drop and the disease will die out. I think this is possible in wealthy countries, but can we vaccinate enough people in poor countries?

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#2662639 25-Feb-2021 13:22

Press release (yesterday's, forgot to post):

About 40 border workers from Christchurch Airport have been vaccinated today at a nearby community based testing centre as the COVID-19 immunisation programme starts rolling out in the South Island.

They included a range of people, such as aviation security workers, cleaners, police, customs workers and health protection officers who screen passengers arriving on international flights.

Yesterday (23 February), 35 of the Canterbury-based vaccination team gave and received the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to prepare for today’s rollout.

About 20 per cent of New Zealand’s approximately 12,000 border and Managed Isolation & Quarantine (MIQ) workers are based in Canterbury and it’s fantastic that the first group have taken up the opportunity to get their first dose of the vaccine as we roll this programme out to all the region’s border and MIQ workers over the next few weeks.

‘These people play a critical role at the frontline of our continued efforts to keep the virus out of our communities and we’re very grateful for their commitment and hard work. They’re the most at risk of exposure to COVID-19 and it is important that we prioritise their protection,’ COVID-19 Vaccine Immunisation Programme Clinical Lead Dr Joe Bourne said.

Canterbury DHB clinician Dr Alan Pithie, Consultant Physician in Infectious Diseases and General Medicine, said the rollout of the immunisation programme in Canterbury was an important milestone in the fight against COVID-19.

‘Our staff are putting in a huge amount of work to provide those at the border in Canterbury with the best protection against COVID-19.

‘This is just the start of the vaccination rollout and we are confident that the system we have created is robust and efficient. We are really proud of our team, this is obviously a new situation for everyone, but it is incredibly important that we complete this first phase as quickly as possible,’ Dr Pithie said.

The vaccines have been transported in special containers to the South Island after being transported there from the ultra-low temperature (ULT) storage facility in Auckland.

Health Protection Officer Debbie Smith said she was relieved to get vaccinated today against COVID-19.

‘It’s another level of armour and I feel like a superhero on the inside now. Working on the frontline, you tend to live your life differently. There have been events I’ve thought twice about going to because of the potential risk I pose and that’s where the vaccination is going to let me live my life a little bit more normally, I hope.’

Her colleague and fellow Health Protection Officer, Jimmy Wong, said getting vaccinated was a huge relief because it meant greater protection for his family.

‘I’ve got a three-month-old baby at the moment and it’s very important to me to do what I can to protect myself and to protect my family.’

Both have worked at Christchurch International Airport since 26 January last year and one of their key roles is health screening people returning to New Zealand on international flights, which puts them in close contact with people potentially with COVID-19.

Airport cleaner Cherry* said she was very keen to get vaccinated and pleased to get that opportunity today as one of the first in Christchurch.

‘I’m happy so I can protect myself and my family. I have felt a little nervous working at the airport and this is a real relief.’

She works full-time for OCS Ltd at the airport and her role includes sanitising touch points, clearing rubbish and ensuring surfaces remain clean and safe.

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#2662650 25-Feb-2021 14:08

sbiddle:

I did see last night the US will have 400m doses of vaccines by the start of July. It's going to be interesting to see how quickly they can actually get through their population.

I want the future to hurry up both there and the UK to see if the effective-ness of distribution is going to actually start making a difference to the R factor and those ignoring logic in prevention that the rest of us are essentially hostage to. Going to suck if the golden goose turns out to be a bronze duck.

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