2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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13684 posts

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#2670056 8-Mar-2021 12:30

duckDecoy:

sbiddle:

What this does show is how important surveillance testing is, and why we should have saliva testing as a key part of that surveillance testing Literally every expert is recommending it, and yet the Govt are still showing little interest in it.

I was chatting to a friend last night who works in and about this sort of area and asked the same question - if other countries accept it as valid why are we not doing it? She replied that it's not that our government doesn't believe it will work, its that they need to prove that our labs can successfully do the testing.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/124436787/covid19-ministry-of-health-to-hire-private-firm-to-roll-out-saliva-testing-of-border-workers

Jas777

838 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2670099 8-Mar-2021 13:47

Fred99:

sbiddle:

With the outrage that we've already seen in the past 12 hours I'm really not sure how the country is going to react going forward when low level endemic Covid becomes a reality of life after our borders do eventually open.

Well as that's clearly going to depend on how effective the vaccines are at reducing transmission, how effective they are at reducing disease severity, what other measures might be needed to save lives of the most vulnerable who can't be protected by vaccine.

I don't think anyone can be sure. That's why I'm annoyed at constant harping at the government to state firm "exit policies and a schedule", then no doubt if they did present "something", the same people demanding an unrealistic commitment based on what's now impossible to know for sure - would only blame the government for changing it, getting it wrong - or "less than perfect" - later.

Sometimes it seems almost as if condemnation for not being able to predict the impossible is being used as "evidence" that there's a conspiracy to hide information.

Probably also depends on how it is reported also. If it gets lumped in with other respiratory diseases such as the Flu then a total of 500 deaths for all types a year would be acceptable.

But like you said the severity of how it mutates and the effect of the vaccine on the severity will be the big determinate in the reaction in the future.

Geektastic

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#2670156 8-Mar-2021 15:43

Fred99:

I don't think anyone can be sure. That's why I'm annoyed at constant harping at the government to state firm "exit policies and a schedule", then no doubt if they did present "something", the same people demanding an unrealistic commitment based on what's now impossible to know for sure - would only blame the government for changing it, getting it wrong - or "less than perfect" - later.

Sometimes it seems almost as if condemnation for not being able to predict the impossible is being used as "evidence" that there's a conspiracy to hide information.

I think it's made worse by the fact that there are quite a few places busy vaccinating in vast numbers. For example, the US has given about 87 million doses, the UK over 21 million, EU 34 million.

New Zealand? 9,400.

I agree that the government is damned if they do and damned if they don't and they run a risk of giving the media a hostage to fortune if they are too detailed. I can, however, see why people are starting to ask and starting to expect answers.

kiwifidget

"Cookie"
3413 posts

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#2670157 8-Mar-2021 15:47

At the rate of 3000 a week (on average so far) it will take 32 years to vax 5 million people.

Delete cookies?! Are you insane?!

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2670159 8-Mar-2021 15:51

kiwifidget:

At the rate of 3000 a week (on average so far) it will take 32 years to vax 5 million people.

Pretty Sure the Pfizer vaccine only has a shelf life of 6 months at -70C... so they have to use it or lose it...

Oblivian

7296 posts

Uber Geek

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#2670160 8-Mar-2021 15:52

Can't but help think that also is going to play into One of these other larger big 'unknowns' around the as yet unknown effectiveness period..

If only some countries are ontop of getting it distributed fast enough. Is the rolling effectiveness going to fail us all like the initial spread has with not enough countries taking a hard line.

Generally you like to get an entire nation done at once. Ala timing of flu season shots to ensure effectiveness. But when that nation is full of people desperate to go to other nations. You would think it would come into play with who lets who in based on their distribution efforts. 'You got it 12 months ago? oh sorry, we're still only doing it now. You need to stay at home still' type scenarios.

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2670187 8-Mar-2021 16:10

Now Pfizer for Everyone... signed up for an additional 8.5 million doses ( 4.25 million courses)

https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/govt-purchases-enough-pfizer-vaccines-whole-country

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Handle9

11386 posts

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#2670199 8-Mar-2021 16:53

Fred99:

sbiddle:

With the outrage that we've already seen in the past 12 hours I'm really not sure how the country is going to react going forward when low level endemic Covid becomes a reality of life after our borders do eventually open.

Well as that's clearly going to depend on how effective the vaccines are at reducing transmission, how effective they are at reducing disease severity, what other measures might be needed to save lives of the most vulnerable who can't be protected by vaccine.

I don't think anyone can be sure. That's why I'm annoyed at constant harping at the government to state firm "exit policies and a schedule", then no doubt if they did present "something", the same people demanding an unrealistic commitment based on what's now impossible to know for sure - would only blame the government for changing it, getting it wrong - or "less than perfect" - later.

Sometimes it seems almost as if condemnation for not being able to predict the impossible is being used as "evidence" that there's a conspiracy to hide information.

If the goal posts move the government has little to worry about. The travel bubble is a good example of this. They said they wanted it by the end of Q1, things changed and there is little noise or any real criticism.

If there isn't a publicly disclosed plan then it creates a number of problems. It allows for speculation that there is no plan, which is reasonable if it isn't disclosed. We're not talking about state secrets, we are talking about things which severely impact normal people.

It also means that there is no criticism of what they want to do so it isn't adapted. There have been any number of screw ups that wouldn't have been far far worse if they hadn't been criticised and forced to change. That's how the system is meant to work.

zenourn

271 posts

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#2670207 8-Mar-2021 17:28

Based upon the evidence I have seen, I think the government has made the right decision in making the Pfizer vaccine the one to give everyone. A few days ago this is exactly what I was wishing for...

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2670261 8-Mar-2021 18:18

Handle9:

If there isn't a publicly disclosed plan then it creates a number of problems. It allows for speculation that there is no plan, which is reasonable if it isn't disclosed. We're not talking about state secrets, we are talking about things which severely impact normal people.

The problem with that is there are too many nested "if (and) - then - else" conditionals. You'd present a plan that almost nobody could understand, but you'd still be held to account, as it's so easy to see in hindsight.

Handle9

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#2670263 8-Mar-2021 18:37

Fred99:

Handle9:

If there isn't a publicly disclosed plan then it creates a number of problems. It allows for speculation that there is no plan, which is reasonable if it isn't disclosed. We're not talking about state secrets, we are talking about things which severely impact normal people.

The problem with that is there are too many nested "if (and) - then - else" conditionals. You'd present a plan that almost nobody could understand, but you'd still be held to account, as it's so easy to see in hindsight.

Thems the breaks. Being transparent and accountable is what they signed up for. If things change then so be it, by now everyone with a brain understands this is a moving target.

There are things that are 100% within the governments control and that can be presented, particularly around vaccination.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2670268 8-Mar-2021 19:22

Handle9:

by now everyone with a brain understands this is a moving target.

There are things that are 100% within the governments control and that can be presented, particularly around vaccination.

Yep sure. Maybe you've got more faith in the "average punter", the "average opposition politician" and the "average journalist" than I have.

Handle9

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#2670272 8-Mar-2021 19:41

Fred99:
Handle9:

by now everyone with a brain understands this is a moving target.

There are things that are 100% within the governments control and that can be presented, particularly around vaccination.

Yep sure. Maybe you've got more faith in the "average punter", the "average opposition politician" and the "average journalist" than I have.

I've got as much faith in all those groups as I do in the average bureaucrat or the average government politician. They are all trying to achieve something different is all.

Time and time again it's been proven that unless all of those groups perform their roles you get a worse result.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2670284 8-Mar-2021 20:27

Handle9:

I've got as much faith in all those groups as I do in the average bureaucrat or the average government politician. They are all trying to achieve something different is all.

There's a difference between scepticism and cynicism.

Sometimes people actually try to do the right thing *without self-interest as the primary driver* and succeed at it.
Others expect adulation for finding peas under mattresses.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2670286 8-Mar-2021 20:36

zenourn:

Based upon the evidence I have seen, I think the government has made the right decision in making the Pfizer vaccine the one to give everyone. A few days ago this is exactly what I was wishing for...

Agree 100%.

(with only proviso - comment dated 8/3/2021)

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