2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2767550 27-Aug-2021 13:20

wellygary:

70 is apparently the whole banana inc arriving MIQ cases, which is only 2 more than yesterday.. What would be really useful to know is the number of these that were household bubbles and already isolated

100%. Yesterday it was 37 of the 68 cases (I think that was yesterdays)

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#2767557 27-Aug-2021 13:45

70 new cases. All in Auckland. Of these 70 new cases, 44 are Pacific peoples, 11 are Asian, six are European, six are Māori, and the ethnicity of three is unknown.

19 in hospital. One is in stable condition in ICU. Two are in North Shore Hospital, eight are in Middlemore Hospital, and nine are in Auckland City Hospital.

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#2767558 27-Aug-2021 13:47

Bang on 70 all in AKL. remember Dr AB says it peaks today, so it will be less tomorrow.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-70-new-covid-cases-in-auckland-today-as-jacinda-ardern-mulls-alert-levels/COB4RSCR3OV5QA4H6RP5SOGCKY/

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#2767559 27-Aug-2021 13:50

HelloThere:

70 new cases. All in Auckland. Of these 70 new cases, 44 are Pacific peoples, 11 are Asian, six are European, six are Māori, and the ethnicity of three is unknown.

19 in hospital. One is in stable condition in ICU. Two are in North Shore Hospital, eight are in Middlemore Hospital, and nine are in Auckland City Hospital.

I'd say that the 44 are Pacific peoples is obviously large for that sector and as they will almost all be part of the large church cluster, I'd say these are all likely to be household bubble cases, as may well be some others, we need to know that

mattwnz

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#2767628 27-Aug-2021 14:20

Bung:
Was it before the lockdown? Why would a supermarket be locally bagging flour unless there was already a shortage?

There is no doubt prices have gone up. We buy the same things each week and prices have clearly gone up. Cat litter has gone up 50 cents. Toilet rolls are more expensive. I would rather they just came out and said that prices have risen due to inflation or due to supply problems etc. It is things like this that can lead to panic buying. It is absolutely ridiculous that dairies can open, yet butchers and grocers can't on the same terms. I can't believe we didn't didn't that out, and instead supermarkets retain the monopoly, when they don't normally provide all meat and produce to NZ.

mattwnz

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#2767631 27-Aug-2021 14:24

Batman:

Bang on 70 all in AKL. remember Dr AB says it peaks today, so it will be less tomorrow.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-70-new-covid-cases-in-auckland-today-as-jacinda-ardern-mulls-alert-levels/COB4RSCR3OV5QA4H6RP5SOGCKY/

Has he claimed it will peak today. We don't know how many of these cases were infected after lockdown, or how many are even household contacts. I wonder why they are not providing this essential information. They always used to.

Auckland is clearly going to be the problem now. It should now be easily able to be eliminated in NZ, except for Auckland. I would think Auckland will need at least 3 more weeks of level 4 at this rate.

wellygary

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#2767634 27-Aug-2021 14:33

Batman:

Bang on 70 all in AKL. remember Dr AB says it peaks today, so it will be less tomorrow.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-70-new-covid-cases-in-auckland-today-as-jacinda-ardern-mulls-alert-levels/COB4RSCR3OV5QA4H6RP5SOGCKY/

We should start to see the impact of the Level 4 lockdown in Auckland,

The slowing of places of interest is a good sign.. but given that its delta I can't see the Govt being anything other than over cautious in its level changes...

my guess is we are in for another weekend of Level 4 national wide, with an easing sometime next week. touchwood it will just be Auckland remaining locked down..

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#2767635 27-Aug-2021 14:37

mattwnz:

Has he claimed it will peak today. We don't know how many of these cases were infected after lockdown, or how many are even household contacts. I wonder why they are not providing this essential information. They always used to.

Auckland is clearly going to be the problem now. It should now be easily able to be eliminated in NZ, except for Auckland. I would think Auckland will need at least 3 more weeks of level 4 at this rate.

No, he didnt claim that, Mr B is stretching his reporting capability! Dr A said he thinks or hopes that it will peak about now and then drop, he did not state it will

Im miffed that the household contacts are being kept secret (conspiracy), we were told yesterday that 37 of the 68 were household bubble cases. Today the 44 Samoan people are highly likely also to be household bubble contacts from those infected at the large church gathering. Its huge if the majority of daily cases are household contacts and not in community spread. Conspiracy tells me that if this was the case, the public will want out of lockdown sooner, whereas right now its on the never never for AKL. Household spread is NOT CT while we are in L4 lockdown.

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#2767636 27-Aug-2021 14:38

wellygary:

We should start to see the impact of the Level 4 lockdown in Auckland,

The slowing of places of interest is a good sign.. but given that its delta I can't see the Govt being anything other than over cautious in its level changes...

my guess is we are in for another weekend of Level 4 national wide, with an easing sometime next week. touchwood it will just be Auckland remaining locked down..

As far as I am aware we don't exactly know where the waste water is testing positive in Christchurch, of course it's all assumed it's coming from MIQ but just because we have positive tests in waste water in Christchurch the South Island isn't going to go down to level 3 in my honest opinion. Not for at least another week.

I think with the government being extra extra cautious they won't risk a level 3... even if we'll be allowed takeaways at level 3...

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#2767637 27-Aug-2021 14:39

mattwnz:
Batman:

Bang on 70 all in AKL. remember Dr AB says it peaks today, so it will be less tomorrow.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-70-new-covid-cases-in-auckland-today-as-jacinda-ardern-mulls-alert-levels/COB4RSCR3OV5QA4H6RP5SOGCKY/

Has he claimed it will peak today. We don't know how many of these cases were infected after lockdown, or how many are even household contacts. I wonder why they are not providing this essential information. They always used to.

Auckland is clearly going to be the problem now. It should now be easily able to be eliminated in NZ, except for Auckland. I would think Auckland will need at least 3 more weeks of level 4 at this rate.

"cases could rise for another 5 days 22/23

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-decision-day-looms-as-experts-wonder-if-new-zealand-will-ever-return-to-normal/YEROR2LN6TJLX7PKTAYD7ZIFWU/

"over the next couple of days, we are expecting it to peak and then drop away" 25/26 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-government-battles-to-control-outbreak-as-cases-surge/Z6V2HM2PAVKZK5IFCWOQA7GYXM/

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#2767639 27-Aug-2021 14:45

mattwnz:

There is no doubt prices have gone up. We buy the same things each week and prices have clearly gone up. Cat litter has gone up 50 cents. Toilet rolls are more expensive. I would rather they just came out and said that prices have risen due to inflation or due to supply problems etc. It is things like this that can lead to panic buying. It is absolutely ridiculous that dairies can open, yet butchers and grocers can't on the same terms. I can't believe we didn't didn't that out, and instead supermarkets retain the monopoly, when they don't normally provide all meat and produce to NZ.

It also leads to the theory they are hiking prices during the lockdown because they can.

I see no reason why grocers and butchers cannot be open on the same premise as a supermarket, restricted numbers in the store at one time and masks to be worn.

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#2767641 27-Aug-2021 14:46

mattwnz:

grocers can't on the same terms. I can't believe we didn't didn't that out, and instead supermarkets retain the monopoly, when they don't normally provide all meat and produce to NZ.

Tell that to all the farmers markets, funky pumpkin and Raeward Fresh stores. Presumably self proclaiming themselves supermarkets.

But they're all open down marshland/around chc

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#2767643 27-Aug-2021 14:51

MaxineN:

As far as I am aware we don't exactly know where the waste water is testing positive in Christchurch, of course it's all assumed it's coming from MIQ but just because we have positive tests in waste water in Christchurch the South Island isn't going to go down to level 3 in my honest opinion. Not for at least another week.

I think with the government being extra extra cautious they won't risk a level 3... even if we'll be allowed takeaways at level 3...

Cautious is a good thing. But they talk about getting back to zero cases. Zero cases. Testing outside of AKL and Manukau shows zero cases.

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#2767644 27-Aug-2021 14:51

Updated plot of various NZ & AU outbreaks. A little messier as I added the NZ Aug20 and the current Vic Aug21 outbreaks for comparison. All except NZ Aug20 are Delta outbreaks

Interesting that Vic is closely following the NSW trend, despite the more severe initial lockdown!

All these outbreaks except Vic occurred after an extended period of zero local cases, and all show an initial 'jump' to 10-20 cases over the first few days (to borrow terminology from elsewhere, call that the inflation phase).

For NSW and Vic this has been followed by exponential growth. ACT also seems to be following roughly the same path (small population so it is bouncing around a little more). And at this stage, small net growth in numbers.
In QLD and NZ Aug20, case numbers started dropping shortly after the 'inflation phase'. For NZ Aug20 the decrease was generally exponential (& took 4 weeks or so ... 😟)
Make what will of the current NZ trend post the 'inflation phase'.

Again, the NZ plots are based on the MOH csv file data, not the daily news releases (similar for NSW & Vic). The numbers are slightly different from the news releases because they are by 'report date' (eg. 74 for 26 Aug).
No adjustments for population - not really needed at this stage as they are 'cluster growth' phenomenon, and small relative to the total populations (besides overall not big differences in the respective populations)

Edit: Oops, 4 weeks not 6!

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#2767645 27-Aug-2021 14:52

MaxineN:

I think with the government being extra extra cautious they won't risk a level 3... even if we'll be allowed takeaways at level 3...

With Delta, I expect the government are going to be extremely cautious is dropping to level 3 in Auckland. You at least have the benefit of very few roads in and out of Auckland to enforce different lockdown levels, unlike here in Australia where there are many, many roads into and out of each state.

But with no cases so far in the other regions, level 3 is probably still a safe option, and even if there is a yet to be discovered case, the chance of it spreading is still quite limited. It may even help to uncover them before they simmer away too long undetected.

I suspect it's a LONG road out of L4 for Auckland. To have confidence you wont just ramp up again you would need quite a number of days where everyone who tests positive had zero time in the community. The level 4 lockdown was 33 days in 2020. Even if numbers start coming down tomorrow I think Auckland is in for at least that long. It's going to be rough - your L4 lockdowns are HARD. Here in Melbourne our lockdown is more like your L3, and we're not containing the spread this time. After more than 200 days since the start of the pandemic in this level, every day more and more people are 'over it'. Hopefully Auckland is a while away from that stage.

As I've said earlier here - I don't think you will be able to keep it out forever, but I do hope you can get back to zero this time and return some of your freedoms until you have a fully vaccinated population. I think here in VIC, we have now missed that chance to get back to zero, so I suspect we have a long few months of fairly strict measured in place until agreed vaccination targets are hit.

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