2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2808092 5-Nov-2021 15:27

wellygary:

Regarding the Border, they are basically hoping that getting Auckland to 90% double vaxxed will bring case numbers down... if they are still going up it will likely involve some sort of rethink...

VIC (or may have been Greater Melbourne) had a record case day (circe 2100) on their Freedom day, but their lockdown wasn't that severe, and they went ahead at a lower %, so hopefully it will be better here as our current weekly case totals are less then their daily was. Given a broadly similar population

HelloThere

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#2808100 5-Nov-2021 15:35

Maybe as well as planning on Auckland travel they could also look at what they can do for Northland. My family live in the Waikato and have family in Northland that we would love to see but at the moment the only way we can get there is to drive to Tauranga, fly to Wellington then fly to Whangarei then drive to their place. It gets a bit expensive and tiring with two young children.

tdgeek

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#2808102 5-Nov-2021 15:35

alexx:

Denmark has 76% (total population) fully vaccinated right now, while we are on about 65%. When things are getting worse for countries with 76% fully vaccinated, that isn't great news for us, although heading into summer might help us a little.

For 76% of population fully vaccinated, we need about 90% of eligible people fully vaccinated. Auckland DHB is about 4% short of that number, but we need it across the entire region and then the entire country.

One other factor, is that if anyone had x cases daily in the non vaccinated days, today with the same x cases, or even more, with a highly vaccinated population, thats not nearly as lethal. In fact you may get more and more cases as its more open, yet many of the cases are a lot less dramatic for the vaccinated. Hospital beds is the only way to measure that I'd say

mattwnz

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#2808105 5-Nov-2021 15:43

tdgeek:

alexx:

Denmark has 76% (total population) fully vaccinated right now, while we are on about 65%. When things are getting worse for countries with 76% fully vaccinated, that isn't great news for us, although heading into summer might help us a little.

For 76% of population fully vaccinated, we need about 90% of eligible people fully vaccinated. Auckland DHB is about 4% short of that number, but we need it across the entire region and then the entire country.

One other factor, is that if anyone had x cases daily in the non vaccinated days, today with the same x cases, or even more, with a highly vaccinated population, thats not nearly as lethal. In fact you may get more and more cases as its more open, yet many of the cases are a lot less dramatic for the vaccinated. Hospital beds is the only way to measure that I'd say

Professor of Epidemiology Tony Blakely said on TVNZ news a few nights ago that measuring case numbers were still very important, including when it comes to estimating hospitisations and ICU . At the moment the virus is largely spreading in younger people, but when it hits more rest homes and other communities and more widespread it could become more of a problem. I heard yesterday that North Shore hospital was already full, which is a huge worry if correct because Auckland is in lockdown reducing the spread, and the official case numbers are still relatively low.

mattwnz

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#2808107 5-Nov-2021 15:47

HelloThere:

Maybe as well as planning on Auckland travel they could also look at what they can do for Northland. My family live in the Waikato and have family in Northland that we would love to see but at the moment the only way we can get there is to drive to Tauranga, fly to Wellington then fly to Whangarei then drive to their place. It gets a bit expensive and tiring with two young children.

I thought that people could get some sort of pass to give to police at the checkpoints allowing them to drive all the way through? Or maybe they haven't put this in place yet?

wellygary

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#2808108 5-Nov-2021 15:51

mattwnz:

Professor of Epidemiology Tony Blakely said on TVNZ news a few nights ago that measuring case numbers were still very important, including when it comes to estimating hospitisations and ICU . At the moment the virus is largely spreading in younger people, but when it hits more rest homes and other communities and more widespread it could become more of a problem. I heard yesterday that North Shore hospital was already full, which is a huge worry if correct because Auckland is in lockdown reducing the spread, and the official case numbers are still relatively low.

TBH, I'm not too worried about the rest home cohorts, , over 65, double dose is 92%, single 95.5%... (as long as they make sure they top them up with boosters in a few months)

its the younger groups with co-mobilities - diabetes, obesity etc, that are the real worry

GV27

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#2808110 5-Nov-2021 15:52

trig42:

That's what they're supposedly working through now.

How are Aucklanders going to be able to leave Auckland, given a small (tiny - currently 0.15% of Aucklanders have Covid19) percentage of them will leave with Covid on board?

THe other 99.85% would like to go and see loved ones, and have Christmas. The government is acutely aware of it, and Grant Robertson said today, they are planning for it to happen. How they do that, I don't know. My guess is they will say only vaxxed can leave, and there will be random checks. Maybe tested too, but that seems a bit onerous - I don't know how many Aucklanders leave Auckland for the holidays, but it would be in the high hundreds of thousands - that will overwhelm testing capacity (and cost a fortune). Maybe lateral flow tests?

There's simply not going to be that kind of capacity for testing in the three working days between Xmas and New Years.

More likely Aucklanders will get the borders totally removed and it will be framed as some sort of reward, when the reality is that an actual border with travel allowed is going to be too hard to administer anyway.

It's either no travel or no border, practically speaking.

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Scott3

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#2808116 5-Nov-2021 15:58

mattwnz:

HelloThere:

Maybe as well as planning on Auckland travel they could also look at what they can do for Northland. My family live in the Waikato and have family in Northland that we would love to see but at the moment the only way we can get there is to drive to Tauranga, fly to Wellington then fly to Whangarei then drive to their place. It gets a bit expensive and tiring with two young children.

I thought that people could get some sort of pass to give to police at the checkpoints allowing them to drive all the way through? Or maybe they haven't put this in place yet?

Recreational travel doesn't make the list for transiting Auckland by road.

"Travelling straight across Auckland

If you are travelling straight across Auckland, there are some extra reasons you can travel, in addition to what is listed above.

You can travel across the boundary in 1 trip (as long as your place of departure and destination are not in Auckland, and it is necessary to travel) if you are:

relocating business premises on a permanent or long-term basis
attending an education entity
going to a funeral or tangihanga, or a wedding or civil union
collecting or accompanying a tūpāpaku or deceased person.

Note that a holiday is not a permitted reason to travel into, out of, or through Auckland.

If you are travelling straight across Auckland, you must travel without stopping as much as possible. You must not stop, so far as reasonably practicable, on your journey. You can stop in an emergency, to use a toilet or get petrol, but you must follow Alert Level 3 guidance.

This list is a summary of permitted travel across the Alert Level boundary. You should have evidence of the purpose of your travel and destination. Read our full guidance on permitted travel, and evidence you should have:

Some of my family members flew from Tauranga to Kerikeri (was in a little Cessna style prop plane - assume they chartered it for the transfer). to visit other family members. Don't know what it cost them, but for @HelloThere it is likley a more viable option than all the driving & commercial flights proposed.

Of course I think it is just a matter of weeks before the Auckland border comes down. If we are happy to reduce restrictions in the bits of the waikato that are in alert level 3, step 2. Despite it having a whole bunch of transmission, and no enforced border, it is logical that we aren't too concerned about spreading the virus around the north island.

Scott3

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#2808118 5-Nov-2021 16:03

Reanalyse:

The poor person who died in Mt Eden was stated to have discharged themselves from hospital a few days before.

I hope this was not a covid denier, but I suppose we will never know. But interesting that fact was highlighed at the 1pm press conference.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300446920/covid19-friend-of-second-man-who-died-says-he-shouldnt-have-been-isolating-at-home

Friend has advised he was fully vaccinated.

Generally covid deniers don't get vaccinated, so cross that off the list.

Self discharging from hospital only really happens when there is some kind of issue. Have done it from a birthing center in my family when we weren't getting the care / support we needed, and were able to resource that at home. But I think it is often associated with unstable people.

[edit] - removed reference to ministry of health statements relating to the other death in home isolation.

kiwifidget

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#2808120 5-Nov-2021 16:07

Maybe have an amnesty?

3 days to see who want where you want. Dec24-26 for instance.

Then go home and lockdown for 2 weeks.

Delete cookies?! Are you insane?!

JPNZ

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#2808121 5-Nov-2021 16:10

I wonder if thats the first covid death for a fully vaccinated person in NZ>?

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alasta

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#2808122 5-Nov-2021 16:12

It'll be a miracle if it hasn't spread all over the North Island before Christmas, so I would predict that the Auckland border will be gone by then. I seem to recall the prime minister recently admitting that it wasn't sustainable.

DonH

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#2808124 5-Nov-2021 16:14

Scott3:

..

Friend has advised he was fully vaccinated. Must have been quite a time ago if the ministry was able to rule out vaccine side effects completly prior to getting the coroners findings.

..

The ministry ruled out vaccine side effects for the first person who died, not this second case.

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wellygary

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#2808126 5-Nov-2021 16:23

JPNZ:

I wonder if thats the first covid death for a fully vaccinated person in NZ>?

We are not sure they died of COVID,

its pretty hard to walk out of a hospital if you have and are infectious with COVID..

(people can't leave MIQ if they have COVID, so there is no reason to suggest you could leave a hospital)

JPNZ

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#2808130 5-Nov-2021 16:28

wellygary:

JPNZ:

I wonder if thats the first covid death for a fully vaccinated person in NZ>?

We are not sure they died of COVID,

its pretty hard to walk out of a hospital if you have and are infectious with COVID..

(people can't leave MIQ if they have COVID, so there is no reason to suggest you could leave a hospital)

You may want to take up the writer of the stuff article then...

"The friend of man with Covid-19 who died at an apartment block in Auckland said he should never have been allowed to isolate at home.

The man, in his 50s, was found dead by emergency services who were called to View Rd, Mt Eden, on Friday morning.

Director of Public Health Dr Caroline McElnay said the man had been treated at a hospital in Auckland in the past few days."

Seems he had Covid and was allowed to self isolate as many others are currently. You are correct in that he may not have died from covid although he was full vaxxed

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