PnSave moorhouse today :P

Word gets out fast

frankv: .. No, I think the "new cases" is not net. That is the new cases identified, mostly on the day before the announcement. The cases details spreadsheet is amended to delete the probable that turned out not to be a case, so that retrospectively the count for a given day is decreased. But no count of "probables cleared" is announced.

But the net increase ( 1386 > 1401) was 15, so if one (or two) earlier case was taken out there must have been 16 (or 17) cases added?

The 1386 and 1401 figures are as per both the summary and individual case data on the MOH site.

The individual case data published 16 Apr included the following changes relative to the 15 Apr dataset:

• Additional cases:  7 on 16 Apr, 8 on 15 Apr, and 1 each on 9 & 11 Apr
• Removed:  1 each on 4 Apr & 26 Mar
  (all being 'Date of report' dates - presumably date of confirmation?)

Pre-4 April, there were two other days with an increase of one, and two with a reduction of one.  However, those appear to be date changes as the case details of the deleted and added cases match. 

That is not so for the new cases on 9 & 11 Apr.  The details for those are quite different from the cases removed on the 4 Apr & 26 Mar.

Hence there were potentially 17 additional cases - 15 (15 & 16 Apr) and one each confirmed on 9 & 11 Apr that were not in the data reported on the 15th? 

I note that the table on the MOH website refers to 'Change in last 24 hours' not 'New cases' 

Anyway, down to 8 'new' cases today so point a bit moot.  Continuing to look good.

I saw reporters asking a few questions about level 3 today at the media conference, questioning hunting for example, which now appears to be a bit of a grey area.

I was discussing level 3 with someone and discussing real estate agents, which is a major industry in NZ, which could see a lot of activity after lock-down. They thought that real estate agents would be able to largely operate as normal under level 3, except they possibly wouldn't be able to do open homes.  However I said that I would doubt they could show people around a home, as they would then be interacting with the public in a common space (two or more bubbles coming in contact), which is similar to a retail store interaction, and under level 3 retail stores can't open. What would other peoples opinion be on this?

I am guessing they will be able to take photos inside houses if they do physical distancing inside the house, however I have noticed quite a lot of new property listings appearing throughout level 4 lockdown where professional photos appear to have been taken, and wonder if they were done during level 4 lockdown or before.

 
Also discussed today, under level 3 people are apparently now able to move home, although I witnessed someone moving home during level 4, so people haven't been following the rules anyway. 

mattwnz:

 

I saw reporters asking a few questions about level 3 today at the media conference, questioning hunting for example, which now appears to be a bit of a grey area.

 

I was discussing level 3 with someone and discussing real estate agents, which is a major industry in NZ, which could see a lot of activity after lock-down. They thought that real estate agents would be able to largely operate as normal under level 3, except they possibly wouldn't be able to do open homes.  However I said that I would doubt they could show people around a home, as they would then be interacting with the public in a common space (two or more bubbles coming in contact), which is similar to a retail store interaction, and under level 3 retail stores can't open. What would other peoples opinion be on this?

 

I am guessing they will be able to take photos inside houses if they do physical distancing inside the house, however I have noticed quite a lot of new property listings appearing throughout level 4 lockdown where professional photos appear to have been taken, and wonder if they were done during level 4 lockdown or before.

 

 
Also discussed today, under level 3 people are apparently now able to move home, although I witnessed someone moving home during level 4, so people haven't been following the rules anyway. 

 

Im sure I heard today that it was no open homes. But say I was an agent. You are interested, we meet there, apart, keys in letterbox, use your gloves, have a wander inside, all doors open, dont touch anything. As he said, they made a call on principles, and finer details underway such as hunting. If KFC can make food under the guidelines, and others pick and pack online goods, then seems ok for one person to wander through a house.

Its impossible to list the 1000 activities that we or businesses can do, the guidelines cover most scenarios, and details to come thats being worked on. 

If we got 20 of us here to list every possible activity over the course of two weeks, and we are done, the next 20 will add plenty more. Its too hard to get everything, but those "everythings" that need considering will turn up at 0800 MBIE. Unlike normal rules and regulatory matters, a request made today may well be advised tomorrow or the next day as yes or no 

MadEngineer: Westpac has upped the limit on contactless payments from $80 to $200.

Pretty sure it's universal, isn't it?

networkn:

 

MadEngineer: Westpac has upped the limit on contactless payments from $80 to $200.

 

Pretty sure it's universal, isn't it?

 

Most banks and card operators I've heard are increasing these limits. It may take a few days for one or another to happen but will happen.

networkn: @ds248 is there a practical way to determine based on current trends how long it would be before we had 4 days of no new cases? Assuming a continuation of L4 lockdown? 

I doubt it.  At least not at this point.  There tends to be a long tail and there are often plateaus on the route down, as well as fluctuations.  There will certainly not be four days of zero (non-imported) cases before Monday!  Probably not even by the following Monday.   Not certain that zero non-imported cases is necessary but would want a very low number per day (1?).  Getting parts of the economy started back on track is also very important.  

The decision will of course also depend on results of the current 'targeted' testing.  But personally I think they need to do a lot more than they are currently doing in that regard to have confidence in the results.  I cannot see how they will have sufficient reliable data by Monday.

Taiwan shows that significant parts of the economy can work safely with appropriate controls, etc.  In the last week they had 15 cases, all but one imported (mostly from the US) or off the Coral Princess cruise ship.  That is, just 1 local case in the last 7 days despite having 4.5x the NZ population.  The one local case was a male in his 20's living in the same house as a imported case who returned to Taiwan on 21 March and was confirmed infected on 23 March.  The young male had been in isolation since 23 March but was not confirmed infected until 12 Apr, 20 days after going into isolation.

Despite what some people think, Australia is also doing well (slightly better than NZ) with a more limited lockdown more akin to our L3.  A lot is made of their hospitalisation rate.  Although that can indicate inadequate testing, it is not of itself a good metric.  The level of hospitalisation also reflects the medical resources and wealth a country has at its disposal and the level of care provided.  And whether we like it or not, Australia has more resources per capita than us.  Hong Kong, and at least until a week or so ago (not check recently) Singapore hospitalise everyone who tests positive.  That is not a reflection of missing more cases due to limited testing, its a reflection of their resources and level care they provide.

==

Incidentally I will post a plot in the data thread a bit later showing that the 'drop' in cases to 8 yesterday is an illusion.  In reality our new local cases confirmed per day has remained ~flat over the last four days (at ~12/day).  In fact at 13, yesterday was the largest number over the last four days. Slightly lower number on Wed (9th) possibly due to the lower testing over Easter weekend.

welcome to the future. 10 min test -> result before doing anything. now if only the tests are reliable and available ... 

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/emirates-passengers-blood-test-covid-19/index.html

DS248:

 

 

 

Incidentally I will post a plot in the data thread a bit later showing that the 'drop' in cases to 8 yesterday is an illusion.  In reality our new local cases confirmed per day has remained ~flat over the last four days (at ~12/day).  In fact at 13, yesterday was the largest number over the last four days. Slightly lower number on Wed (9th) possibly due to the lower testing over Easter weekend.

 

Can you explain. I see the 8 cases advised today. Great. All are related to existing cases. That and recent numbers tell me that our new cases are seeded from known issues, which as a layman I take that as expected, and more importantly are already in lockdown. As I see it (as a layman) that if we get a few cases everyday that relate to clusters, etc, this means no CT? The public may see only a few cases each day, great, but if they are all linked to exisiting cases, the net result is zero?  As in those already known and locked down are of no risk. And the risk, which is CT isn't happening?

Your comment?  

Batman:

 

welcome to the future. 10 min test -> result before doing anything. now if only the tests are reliable and available ... 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/emirates-passengers-blood-test-covid-19/index.html

 

I really worry about CNN as a reliable source. 
This is nuts - the tests aren't reliable even if they are available - we'll possibly end up in deep sh*t if we start using inhetently unreliable quick serological tests as a method to reduce international transmission by air travel.  It's a complete and utter fail, a PR exercise and not fit for purpose.

Medical experts should perhaps start giving Emirates advice on jet engine maintenance and safety checks.

I hope national health authorities don't buy in to useless scams like this.

msukiwi:

Had my first INR test (Blood thinner) since the lock down, this morning at Riccarton Clinic. 

freitasm:

Most banks and card operators I've heard are increasing these limits. It may take a few days for one or another to happen but will happen.