Five new cases today, sadly one death.

freitasm:

 

Five new cases today, sadly one death.

 

And the guy in Peru. That is a pretty sad and lonely ending.

Rikkitic:

 

freitasm:

 

Five new cases today, sadly one death.

 

 

And the guy in Peru. That is a pretty sad and lonely ending.

 

 

 

I don't know if be will be counted in NZs stats. But that is a really sad case. Shows how awful this virus is and it can kill anyone of any age.

DS248:

 

One perhaps more subtle point is that the number of new cases given in the press release each day is made up of cases confirmed over the past two or three days (and sometimes some from even longer ago.  The trend vs 'Press Release Date' can give a distorted picture of what is happening; eg over the last four days, the numbers of new cases were:  8, 13, 9, 9.  So the 'headline' press release trend looks flat with yesterday's number of new cases one more than the number four days ago.  Not so comforting with L3 only six days away. 

 

But when plotted against date of confirmation ('Date of report' in the MOH individual case data), the trend looks quite a bit more positive for the latest four days, with total new cases, 16-19 Apr being: 17, 12, 10, 7*.  Note that the last numbers are tentative; data released later today may change them a bit (*eg. possibly add one or two to the last number). 

 

I think you have the dates a bit back to front. I believe the "Date of report" is the date that the person was first identified as a probable case, and given a test. On that day, or probably the day after due to a lag in reporting, they will be included in the "new probable" count. Two or three or more days later their test comes back, and, if positive, they are included in the press release count of "new confirmed cases" that day, even though the actual test was done 2 or 3 days earlier.  Their record is then moved from the "Probable" page of the spreadsheet to the "Confirmed" page, but it still retains the same "Date of report". So Mondays and Tuesdays have lower "confirmed" counts than Wednesdays, since they relate to smaller numbers of tests done mostly during the weekend.

I don't know what a "day" means in these reports; I suspect it's probably 9am to 9am, rather than midnight to midnight, since the spreadsheet has a cutoff time of 9am each day.

tdgeek:

 

Germany, "gradual easing" thats funny, looks pretty bau to me, aka free-for-all

 

"We need our life back" thats quite ironic. Opposite effect is more likely

 

Most aren't happy about 'cause that's the careless money pushing a lot to re-open. But wise people still stick to the restrictive measures and keep away from it. Or it seems something "darwinistic" is going on. We'll see it for sure after 5-6 days. The feedback will not be as positive I think.

Tinkerisk:

 

tdgeek:

 

Germany, "gradual easing" thats funny, looks pretty bau to me, aka free-for-all

 

"We need our life back" thats quite ironic. Opposite effect is more likely

 

 

Most aren't happy about 'cause that's the careless money pushing a lot to re-open. But wise people still stick to the restrictive measures and keep away from it. Or it seems something "darwinistic" is going on. We'll see it for sure after 5-6 days. The feedback will not be as positive I think.

 

Yes, I was a bit shocked. A lot in Australia are doing tne same, wise people locking themselves down

Are these loose measures due to pressure from business as is the case here, or have the people had enough, so need some respite?

Edit, and apologies, I know you are in Germany, later on I thought I should have been a bit less brutal/blunt

tdgeek:

 

Tinkerisk:

 

Most aren't happy about 'cause that's the careless money pushing a lot to re-open. But wise people still stick to the restrictive measures and keep away from it. Or it seems something "darwinistic" is going on. We'll see it for sure after 5-6 days. The feedback will not be as positive I think.

 

 

Yes, I was a bit shocked. A lot in Australia are doing tne same, wise people locking themselves down

 

Are these loose measures due to pressure from business as is the case here, or have the people had enough, so need some respite?

 

What should I say? Mainly business in combination will simple minded and vanity people.

The stupid runs, the clever one waits, the wise man goes into the garden.

Batman: Germany reopens https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/we-need-life-again-germans-rush-to-reopened-shops-after-coronavirus-lockdown-but-merkel

 

... 

@Tinkerisk: Seems a bit early for opening up to the extent indicated in the above article given the comparatively low rate of decrease in new cases per day in Germany?  

Plot includes three other (smaller) EU countries planning to open their economies soon (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/11/health/european-countries-reopening-coronavirus-intl/index.html).  Only in Austria (and Norway??) is decrease in new cases per day comparable with NZ. And even Austria still has around six (6) times the numbers of new cases per capita per day that we have here in NZ.

Note: NZ cases plotted vs 'press release date - 1 day'; eg. number for today (five in the 24 hours to 9 am, 21 Apr are plotted as being for 20 Apr).  Zero new HK cases on 20 Apr.  New cases plotted are average per day.  

tdgeek:

 

Edit, and apologies, I know you are in Germany, later on I thought I should have been a bit less brutal/blunt

 

Never mind - I'm thinking globally. For me what we do here is as stupid as it would be everywhere in the world. ;-)

I do wish that we had some additional information around the new cases; if we got 2 today - then, when were they actually tested, when did they seek a test, when did they start getting symptoms and who are they connected to that has COVID already. (maybe they do have that information and they don't feel that it is required to be made public). From that information we might be able to see how long the virus is taking to spread around bubbles ...

DS248:

 

@Tinkerisk: Seems a bit early for opening up to the extent indicated in the above article given the comparatively low rate of decrease in new cases per day in Germany?  

 

Don't ask - I'm thinking the same, but. As said few pages before, after getting it under control so far and arranging everything in the hospitals, I think they gonna make a tightrope walk between economy and ICU workload - which has a quite darwinistic trade-off taste for me. We'll see - this is more or less a "test" (to what price?).

edit: One should keep in mind, that eradicating it is not an option for us since we are not geographically isolated. According to the latest results from our virus experts, herd immunization seems not to be either.

DS248:

 

Batman: Germany reopens https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/we-need-life-again-germans-rush-to-reopened-shops-after-coronavirus-lockdown-but-merkel

 

... 

 

 Seems a bit early for opening up to the extent indicated in the above article given the comparatively low rate of decrease in new cases per day in Germany?  

 

they are not planning to eradicate. they are carrying on as it is.

nzkiwiman:

 

I do wish that we had some additional information around the new cases; if we got 2 today - then, when were they actually tested, when did they seek a test, when did they start getting symptoms and who are they connected to that has COVID already. (maybe they do have that information and they don't feel that it is required to be made public). From that information we might be able to see how long the virus is taking to spread around bubbles ...

 

From a transcript of yesterdays update

https://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2020-04/2004%20Post-Cabinet%20press%20conference.pdf

Dr Ashley Bloomfield: Yes. Just one thing to add to that, Prime Minister. And one of
the things about being in the lockdown sort of situation is even the cases that are coming
through, and a number of the more recent ones, in recent days, have actually been people
who were infected, it seems, and had symptoms before we even went into lockdown, and
they have had residual symptoms, have now been tested, and are positive. But actually
they have been within a bubble, and so the risk of further transmission is very, very low.
And we’ve seen that reflected in the number of contacts for each case that is coming
through, and our ability, very quickly, to identify, for the vast majority of them, what the
source of their infection was.

He said something similar about todays cases ( transcript not available on the website yet )

So it appears some of the case in the past few days are actually people that have been infected prior to lockdown, are still symptomatic and only getting tested now

Clint

I'd like to know how many of our positive tests are for people that were asymptomatic, who never went on  to experience any of the symptoms.

As there are reported high rates of asymptomatic positive cases in various closed groups eg the aircraft carrier off Guam, and the 3000 people in the Italian village.

If New Zealand has none , then why?