2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2468658 23-Apr-2020 14:17

neb:
tdgeek:

He ranges between we will end this in 14 days apart from maybe 1 or 2, to 80000 deaths. His miracle eradication in 2 weeks is hardly cautious, and his 80000 deaths is obviously and clearly looking at a scenario that will not exist. If he was a weatherman it will be between-39 and 48 C today, calm or windy

Because he's looking at very different scenarios. Again if he was a politician he'd say "We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine. The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!". Since he's been asked for his expert opinion as a scientist and not a sound bite as a politician, he's given various outcomes under various conditions, e.g. if we do nothing we get this, if we do this but not that we get this, and so on.

I hear what you are saying but two extremes doesnt cut it. Giving a responsible result based on the now, with what we are doiing and might do (well or not so well) would have added value. He didnt do that, just gave big numbers and a masisve result in a matter of days. No.

dejadeadnz

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#2468661 23-Apr-2020 14:22

neb:

Since he's been asked for his expert opinion as a scientist and not a sound bite as a politician, he's given various outcomes under various conditions, e.g. if we do nothing we get this, if we do this but not that we get this, and so on.

I agree. It's also quite conventional for anyone familiar with risk assessments for people to start off with the projected consequences of applying no control measures in order to set up a baseline to assess the cost and benefit of other proposed measures. So no idea what Tdgeek is outraged about.

mattwnz

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#2468662 23-Apr-2020 14:25

tdgeek:

frednz:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121123513/coronavirus-modelling-expert-says-lockdown-should-be-extended-two-weeks?=app-android

From the above:

He (University of Auckland Professor Shaun Hendy) told Stuff his modelling predicted that with about two weeks more of level four lockdown New Zealand would be enough to get down to zero new daily cases, or just one or two.

So, he did acknowledge that even with two weeks or more of Level 4 lockdown there could be one or two new daily cases, he didn't say that every case will be removed by extending Level 4 by 14 days.

Covering his butt. One or two in 5 million.

I am guessing that they are working on the assumption that most new cases being detected each day would be imported, and should be in quarantine at that stage. It is a likely that someone coming into NZ will have the virus. Also it is possible 1 or 2 people may pick it up from COVID 19 material. eg from touching a surface that still has live virus cells, and then touches their mouth etc. There are still cases in NZ where they have no idea how the person caught it as they hadn't been in contact with anyone. I have seen several examples mentioned in the media of this. The other problem is that anyone who still has it, is a potential node for a new cluster, so IMO we should be getting to the stage where we can closely monitor those people left over, who still have the virus, and eliminating any risk from them infecting others, such as bracelet monitoring. This will stop them going out to the supermarket which infectious, which has happened. IMO the country can't afford for any more leaks to occur from this point on. One cluster in NZ appears to have started from just 1 person and has grown to close to a hundred people.

mattwnz

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#2468679 23-Apr-2020 14:33

Fred99:

Definitely need to look very hard at risks - plug holes - and keep monitoring and testing flat out.
I can't think of any huge holes - like Singapore's foreign worker dorms - but there will be some.
Freezing works / abattoirs have been hot-spots in the USA. Not sure how they compare to NZ WRT hygiene - it's been years since I've visited one here but because we've got very stringent barriers for export they're already part-way to full PPE, constant surface cleaning etc. OTOH the ones I've been to have large canteens where the entire shifts have lunch and smoko breaks together.

Flight crew on planes do seem to be one, unless they are quarantined in their down period in NZ before flying again. But they do also have a significant amount of staff they could use that aren't flying, to allow for rotations to occur, as well as other people who need employment. That maybe more costly, but there aren't a lot of planes now flying, and the cost to NZ of a leak occurring IMO is far higher. I did hear them discuss it at the press conference yesterday but they didn't appear to provide any solutions at this time.

tdgeek

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#2468680 23-Apr-2020 14:34

mattwnz:

Covering his butt. One or two in 5 million.

I am guessing that they are working on the assumption that most new cases being detected each day would be imported, and should be in quarantine at that stage. It is a likely that someone coming into NZ will have the virus. Also it is possible 1 or 2 people may pick it up from COVID 19 material. eg from touching a surface that still has live virus cells, and then touches their mouth etc. There are still cases in NZ where they have no idea how the person caught it as they hadn't been in contact with anyone. I have seen several examples mentioned in the media of this. The other problem is that anyone who still has it, is a potential node for a new cluster, so IMO we should be getting to the stage where we can closely monitor those people left over, who still have the virus, and eliminating any risk from them infecting others, such as bracelet monitoring. This will stop them going out to the supermarket which infectious, which has happened. IMO the country can't afford for any more leaks to occur from this point on. One cluster in NZ appears to have started from just 1 person and has grown to close to a hundred people.

Quite right. We have done very well to be where we are, and as you say, many leak opportunities. Let alone the growing flouter issues. So its irresponsible telling the public a few days ago that hey, we might be down to 1 or maybe 2 cases in all of NZ is just 14 days. Known and unknown. Apparently Im outraged LOL, more squeaky wheel syndrome.

Oblivian

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#2468704 23-Apr-2020 15:02

mattwnz:

Flight crew on planes do seem to be one, unless they are quarantined in their down period in NZ before flying again. But they do also have a significant amount of staff they could use that aren't flying, to allow for rotations to occur, as well as other people who need employment. That maybe more costly, but there aren't a lot of planes now flying, and the cost to NZ of a leak occurring IMO is far higher. I did hear them discuss it at the press conference yesterday but they didn't appear to provide any solutions at this time.

You have to take other releases into account here

National crew do not equal international crew. Different skillsets and aircraft familiarity.

They're also venting money. Planes can only sit on the ground for about 8-10 days before they require a different engine oil, (I think I saw 70 odd hours work) and total clean to get rid of any birds/bugs/contaminants to get going again

Even more money

They got 2 bailouts and still looks grim. To have already told those who are to be stood down, sorry - you are now standby staff ready to swap out, they will want to be paid for any time not in the air too. A reason for laying so many off is they can't afford to pay them while there is little use for them

And as of this week, all staff are to be tested

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12326798

On the fly todays total didn't change from yesterday due to re-evaluations. And only 2. So the 2 week game is playing out

Batman

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#2468715 23-Apr-2020 15:23

Oblivian:

mattwnz:

Flight crew on planes do seem to be one, unless they are quarantined in their down period in NZ before flying again. But they do also have a significant amount of staff they could use that aren't flying, to allow for rotations to occur, as well as other people who need employment. That maybe more costly, but there aren't a lot of planes now flying, and the cost to NZ of a leak occurring IMO is far higher. I did hear them discuss it at the press conference yesterday but they didn't appear to provide any solutions at this time.

You have to take other releases into account here

National crew do not equal international crew. Different skillsets and aircraft familiarity.

They're also venting money. Planes can only sit on the ground for about 8-10 days before they require a different engine oil, (I think I saw 70 odd hours work) and total clean to get rid of any birds/bugs/contaminants to get going again

Even more money

They got 2 bailouts and still looks grim. To have already told those who are to be stood down, sorry - you are now standby staff ready to swap out, they will want to be paid for any time not in the air too. A reason for laying so many off is they can't afford to pay them while there is little use for them

And as of this week, all staff are to be tested

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12326798

On the fly todays total didn't change from yesterday due to re-evaluations. And only 2. So the 2 week game is playing out

Saving money should not come at the cost of triggering clusters of Covid infections in the country!

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MikeB4

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#2468717 23-Apr-2020 15:31

I was very pleased to hear Jacinda Ardern mention and thank in her 1pm address today the 600 plus Defence Force personal assisting with Covid 19 and the RNZAF crews that have been helping our Pacific Island friends with cyclone relief.

Oblivian

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#2468718 23-Apr-2020 15:32

You also can't guarantee spending money and swapping staff would absolutely not cause a cluster.

Nothing about this is an absolute. If it was this thread wouldn't be growing by the day.

kingdragonfly

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#2468719 23-Apr-2020 15:33

The Daily Beast: Fox News Quietly Backs Away From Hyping Trump’s Coronavirus ‘Miracle Drug’

On to the next talking point: After spending two full weeks of programming touting an anti-malarial drug as a coronavirus cure, Fox’s primetime stars have pulled back almost entirely—and so has the president.

After weeks of incessantly hyping an unproven anti-malarial drug as a potential miracle cure for the coronavirus, Fox News has seemingly ditched its nearly round-the-clock promotion of hydroxychloroquine.

Unsurprisingly, the change in tone coincided with President Donald Trump’s own retreat from touting the drug, and comes as multiple studies have shown no benefit to COVID-19 patients.

Beginning in mid-to-late March and ramping up through the first two weeks of April, the president repeatedly lauded hydroxychloroquine—a drug developed decades ago to combat malaria and currently also used to treat lupus and rheumatoid arthritis—as a “game-changer” that has brought people back from the dead.

“What really do we have to lose?” Trump implored the public earlier this month, adding that the drug “doesn’t kill people.” Doctors and medical experts, however, consistently warned that the drug has some severe side effects, such as sudden cardiac arrest.

As is often the case with the cable-news obsessed president, Trump only began promoting the malaria drug as a miracle cure after his favorite Fox opinion hosts openly touted it on-air and in private meetings with him. According to Media Matters for America, a liberal media watchdog, between March 23 and April 6, Fox hosts and guests lauded hydroxychloroquine almost 300 times.

Throughout that time, both the president and Fox stars relied heavily on both anecdotal evidence and flawed studies—namely from a controversial French doctor whose methods have come under scrutiny—to push the drug as a coronavirus cure. The FDA eventually issued “emergency use authorization” in late March for doctors to prescribe the drug to COVID-19 patients in off-label use.

But by mid-April, however, both Trump and his Fox News allies began to clam up on the drug.

As first noted by Politico, the president barely spoke about the drug over the past week.

...Since then, and as several small studies showed no benefit to hydroxychloroquine, the president has been mum on the drug. Even on his Twitter account, which previously featured dozens of boasts about the drug, Trump has noticeably slowed down. Outside of a Saturday retweet of a story crediting him with taking a “gamble” on the drug, the president hasn’t tweeted about the drug in nearly two weeks.

And the president’s relative silence has been mirrored by Fox...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-quietly-backs-away-from-hyping-trumps-coronavirus-miracle-drug-hydroxychloroquine?ref=home

kingdragonfly

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#2468745 23-Apr-2020 15:57

Literally willing to gamble with her constituents' lives.From an interview with Las Vegas, Nevada Mayor Carolyn Goodman on CNN's Anderson Cooper 360:

Mayor Goodman: We have to open up. We have to go back. Our bus drivers, our room cleaners, our restaurants —

Reporter Cooper: But hasn’t it been because of social distancing that the numbers have been what they are.

Goodman: How do you know until we have a control group? We offered to be a control group. Anybody who knows anything about statistic knows that for instance you have a vaccine, you give a real vaccine —

Cooper: You’re offering for the citizens of Las Vegas to be a control group to see if your theory on social distancing —

Goodman: I did offer, it was turned down.

Zepanda66

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#2468746 23-Apr-2020 15:57

Does anyone know what the deal with job interviews are under level 3? I imagine the majority will still be done remotely? But maybe some on-site with social distancing?

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frednz

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#2468748 23-Apr-2020 15:59

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12326244

From the above:

The World Health Organisation chief warned on Monday that "the worst is yet ahead of us" in the coronavirus outbreak, reviving the alarm just as many countries ease restrictive measures aimed at reducing its spread.

"Let's prevent this tragedy. It's a virus that many people still don't understand."

A timely warning that the easing of lockdowns should proceed with great caution, but perhaps more relevant for some overseas countries which haven't taken the strict Level 4 measures that we're in now.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus didn't specify why he believes the outbreak that has infected some 2.5 million people and killed over 166,000 could get worse. He and others, however, have previously pointed to the likely future spread of the illness through Africa, are far less developed.

frednz

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#2468751 23-Apr-2020 16:11

Now here's a true story about a cyclist in his seventies who a few days ago went for a bike ride on a trail a few kilometres from home. He did have an underlying heart problem, but to his credit he had cycled up to 20kms per day for many years.

Unfortunately, he suffered a medical event and crashed his bike and passed away. It took some time before anyone found him. The Police were called and were very good and advised his next of kin.

But, during the time of a Level 4 lockdown, I suppose it does illustrate that if the cyclist had been infectious with covid-19 it would have put the Police officers at risk and diverted them from other essential duties. So, even when we enter Level 3, I think people should take it easy and be particularly careful when exercising and not go too far away from home.

kingdragonfly

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#2468754 23-Apr-2020 16:16

Zepanda66:
Does anyone know what the deal with job interviews are under level 3? I imagine the majority will still be done remotely? But maybe some on-site with social distancing?

Perhap create a thread in Jobs forums.

Even for businesses that are open, long person to person interviews wouldn't be a great idea. I'm pretty sure interviews won't change from level 4 to level 3, in other words they're via video conferencing.

If you're looking, I'd suggest in-the-ear headphone, or "gaming" headset. In the-ear-headphone look better over a video feed.

Either will dramatically improve the audio portion of the call; less "cut-offs"/"clipping" due to video-conference software muting feedback.

It's worth getting Zoom and Skype set up beforehand, because those seem to be the most popular. Cisco web-ex isn't that popular in NZ.

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