2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2518332 7-Jul-2020 09:50

tdgeek:

Access to more experts than most

Access to them doesn't guarantee comprehension of what they're saying, nor that the expert advice received won't be rejected. All national leaders have access to expert advice - but the result has been an abject shambles in many countries.

tdgeek

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#2518334 7-Jul-2020 09:52

Fred99:

tdgeek:

Access to more experts than most

Access to them doesn't guarantee comprehension of what they're saying, nor that the expert advice received won't be rejected. All national leaders have access to expert advice - but the result has been an abject shambles in many countries.

Yes but National leader have only one motivation, votes

Fred99

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#2518336 7-Jul-2020 09:55

tdgeek:

Yes but National leader have only one motivation, votes

Capitalisation of "National" not needed - it might upset snowflakes right at the start of ski season.

wellygary

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#2518337 7-Jul-2020 09:55

Fred99:

Oblivian:

And there we have it.

The tap flow has been turned right down by the government. As a result all this weeks arrival boards at the airport are basically blank and making people trying to get back panic

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12346018

I don't have a problem with that. IIRC the expected inflow was to be about 250 arrivals a day to reach saturation point for quarantine capacity. Arrivals have been much higher than that, quarantine capacity has been increased, but the limit has been hit.

Similar thing happened in OZ yesterday, 450 pax per day cap at SYD and I'm guessing it will be followed by other states,

The next hard question will be how do you manage bookings, I suspect it will get left at first come first served for a while, but if demand keeps growing you are going to have to devise some sort of ranking..

https://www.9news.com.au/national/sydney-airport-caps-international-arrivals-throwing-passengers-into-turmoil-as-flights-cancelled/9f07bda0-57a9-499e-b3f8-9cc12ed3db15

tdgeek

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#2518344 7-Jul-2020 10:02

Fred99:

tdgeek:

Yes but National leader have only one motivation, votes

Capitalisation of "National" not needed - it might upset snowflakes right at the start of ski season.

Yes, lol wasnt meant to be caps

DS248

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#2518348 7-Jul-2020 10:08

Interesting results here (peer-reviewed article)

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext

5% seroprevalence overall = 2.3m infected vs ~265,000 cases reported for Spain by Wikipedia around the time of the survey (number for 9 May - survey end date 11 May). Hence actual cases ~9x the reported number. Still a long way short of herd immunity.

Reporting for Spain has changed since then, now include only PCR-confirmed cases. Wikipedia now show ~225,000 around the time of the survey, so actual = ~10x PCR-confirmed cases.

Corresponding reported CV19 deaths at the time were 26,700 and excess deaths 13 Mar - 22 May = ~44,500 (https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/MoMo/Documents/informesMoMo2020/MoMo_Situacion%20a%2029%20de%20junio_CNE.pdf)

Hence:

IFR (reported CV19 deaths) = ~1.2%

IFR (excess deaths) = ~1.9%

freitasm

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#2518422 7-Jul-2020 11:02

@1101:

mattwnz:

New interview with Bill Gates on the current state of the pandemic. Mentions NZ too. Also mentions how important mask wearing is.

Bill Gates. A well known expert on viral/infectious diseases :-(
Are his opinions any more valid than Trumps , neither are experts in this field.

This is part of the problem. NON Experts opinions being spread about .
No wonder there is so much conflicting info out there .
Average person has no way of knowing whats fact & whats FUD .

I would say Bill Gates is an expert. I'd inherently trust his voice more than any "Facebook friend" or dimwit "commentator" on mainstrean media.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation does a wonderful job around the world with a very sharp focus on health.

I think you are trolling.

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#2518424 7-Jul-2020 11:03

@Fred99:

tdgeek:

Access to more experts than most

Access to them doesn't guarantee comprehension of what they're saying, nor that the expert advice received won't be rejected. All national leaders have access to expert advice - but the result has been an abject shambles in many countries.

I would say Bill Gates is an expert and understands it perfectly well.

Fred99

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#2518436 7-Jul-2020 11:28

freitasm:

@Fred99:

Access to them doesn't guarantee comprehension of what they're saying, nor that the expert advice received won't be rejected. All national leaders have access to expert advice - but the result has been an abject shambles in many countries.

I would say Bill Gates is an expert and understands it perfectly well.

I was referring to political leaders (elected or otherwise) who ignore expert advice, either because they're too stupid to understand the advice received, too narcissistic to believe that anybody knows better than they do, and too selfish, greedy or psychopathic to care about the impact of what they impose as policy on anybody. In some cases all of those dangerous flaws are bundled up into one evil ugly package.

The attempted demonisation of Gates for what he gives and achieves with his foundation is one of the dumbest movements on the planet, perpetuated by anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists of the worst kind. And then it appears in this thread...

Fred99

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#2518438 7-Jul-2020 11:38

DS248:

Interesting results here (peer-reviewed article)

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext

TLDR:

Even in countries hit hard by C-19, with hospital systems overwhelmed by cases, tens of thousands of deaths, they're nowhere near "herd immunity" and unless they want humanitarian disasters much worse than what they've already experienced, they're going to have to continue to work to try to reduce spread of the disease.

KrazyKid

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#2518487 7-Jul-2020 13:53

Has anyone seen a copy of the government/MoH plan for surveillance testing?

In today's press conference Chris Hipkins stated the plan was for ~4000 tests per day geographically spread around the country.
He said that the current rate was below agreed expectations and the MoH could fix this in a matter of days.

If we have 5000 people in quarantine at any one time about 700 of our daily tests are just the day 3 and day 12 tests. So we need to exclude those from the test numbers.
The 7 day average number of tests (up to 5/7/20) is 3200, so that is about 2500 community tests per day, but the trend is down (the last 5 day average is 1950 tests when excluding quarantine tests).

wellygary

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#2518531 7-Jul-2020 14:10

KrazyKid:

Has anyone seen a copy of the government/MoH plan for surveillance testing?

In today's press conference Chris Hipkins stated the plan was for ~4000 tests per day geographically spread around the country.

He said that the current rate was below agreed expectations and the MoH could fix this in a matter of days.

Awe come on, they can't have it both ways,

12 days ago, they screwed down on community testing by upping the requirements, and now they are complaining not enough are getting tested...... talk about running hot and cold....

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12342778

"For the past several weeks, anyone with even a sniffle had been told they can be tested for Covid-19.

But that will no longer be the case unless they fall into a high-risk group or their doctor advises it.

The high-risk group includes anyone who has recently:

• Had contact with an infected person.
• Been overseas.
• Had direct contact with someone who had been overseas.
• Worked on an international aircraft or ship.
• Worked at an airport or isolation facility.

Other people with a cold or flu symptom could still be tested but it will not be a requirement.

Fred99

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#2518548 7-Jul-2020 14:53

wellygary:

12 days ago, they screwed down on community testing by upping the requirements, and now they are complaining not enough are getting tested...... talk about running hot and cold....

Change of Health Minister? The new chap seems to have long-term ambition. Being minister in charge of a cock-up that resulted in large CT outbreaks is probably somewhat career limiting.

Then again it might simply be heightened awareness / reevaluation of risk - after looking at what's happened across the Tasman.