2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2525310 18-Jul-2020 19:37

Handle9: Once again you are making this digital.

Should there be completely open borders? No. Can they be more open than they are now? Probably - I'm not delusional enough to pretend that there are absolute answers. Can it happen tomorrow. No. Can it happen in 6 months? Maybe. Is there enough work going into these questions? I don't believe so but I may be wrong. It's not a facile discussion which is why it was raised by some people who aren't pushing any particular agenda. Fyfe, Clark and Gluckmann aren't looking for a gig or trying to make money out of this.

Do you HONESTLY believe that the New Zealand government have managed this whole crisis from a plan? They made it up as they went, which was entirely necessary and appropriate. At the moment they are still very reactive. What is my evidence? The management of the border is still not adequate. Community testing is woeful. I don't particularly view that as a huge particular criticism of the bureaucracy or government, no government was prepared for this. If New Zealand is to come out of the crisis in the best possible position it needs to be better.

There clearly isn't sufficient capacity to manage the border the way they are now. How can that be scaled up?

I think at the moment that the political arm of the government is focused on winning the election and then figuring out what they do next. It's an observation rather than a criticism - politicians have to be elected if they want to stay as politicians.

Europe and Asia are getting back to a new normal. It isn't what it used to be but many countries are permitting significantly more free movement and this makes them more attractive for business. I also don't believe that the New Zealand public is ready for an honest conversation about the economic implications of staying completely closed to the world. The economic situation will need to get much worse before that can happen. I hope that won't happen but I think it will.

Firstly I am *NOT* making this digital as you have repeatedly said. I am talking about the realities of international travel and the restrictions all developed countries have put in place in regards to movement of their citizens and business travel, this is not something unique to NZ nor is it something that NZ can make in isolation without bilateral agreements in place.

Helen Clark has already said that studies should be done on Austria and Iceland: https://twitter.com/HelenClarkNZ/status/1274239052842057729

I would like to see a direct quote from any of them pushing for the borders to be opened immediately without any restrictions, as I don't think that will exist.

In regards to the plan, I am pretty sure they opened up this plan and used it as a basis of how to act: https://www.health.govt.nz/your-health/healthy-living/emergency-management/pandemic-planning-and-response/influenza-pandemic-plan

There was coverage in Parliament back on the 3rd of March: https://ondemand.parliament.nz/parliament-tv-on-demand/?itemId=211206 and MoH was talking about it back in Jan. https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/novel-coronavirus-update-24th-january-2020 but sure... they didn't plan for anything.

The areas I think the Government have failed is to say that Tourism is not completely stuffed for the next 18 months irrespective of anything NZ does, and allowing people to be released on compassionate grounds from managed isolation without testing.

In regards to Travel in the EU, it is certainly not what it used to be: https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/health/coronavirus-response/travel-and-transportation-during-coronavirus-pandemic_en

International trade has only been impacted around 10% which considering the impact on the rest of the world is quite impressive: https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/effects-of-covid-19-on-trade-1-february-13-may-2020-provisional

Ski fields just this week said they were seeing the busiest time for the school holiday season: https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/holiday-boost-skifields

Just because there isn't daily updates on how talks are progressing doesn't mean they aren't happening. And once anything has been worked out to a level of satisfaction between both countries I am sure something will be released.

With the exception of the lack of straight talk to the tourism industry which I think will need to adjust their prices to adjust to domestic tourism then I think the Government have done an amazing job with communication and leadership with a few issues that if compared to what has happened in Australia were no where near as disastrous and quickly resolved.

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#2525311 18-Jul-2020 19:39

freitasm:

Handle9:

Where did I suggest that anything should be a trust based system?

Once again this isn't digital and it's not short term. It's a completely necessary conversation to have.

You didn't. That's why I wrote "Dont' come with" - as in don't even think of suggesting it.

It is a conversation but I think the conversation has to start with "Who must enter the country" and I am siding with people that might think "citizens and residents first" instead of people who are "OMG we need people to do business here" when we have digital tools that can help. Being here is not 100% required to do business and if interferes with community health... Well so be it. Learn to do it another way. Invent another way.

Shouldn't the longer term discussion be how do you keep the country safe while preserving as much of peoples standard of living as possible?

People saying "OMG anyone who suggests more people entering the country is trying to kill my grandmother" are just as crazy as those saying "it's just a flu"

Everything the country does has implications. It's a continuum rather than one way or the other.

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#2525320 18-Jul-2020 20:28

Handle9:

People saying "OMG anyone who suggests more people entering the country is trying to kill my grandmother" are just as crazy as those saying "it's just a flu"

Well that's an utter BS comparison. The more people who come in (until there's a solution to the "covid problem") then the more chance we'll introduce the disease, and yes - that's got a high probability of "killing your grandmother" (or someone else's) That's science.

"It's just a "flu" isn't science - it's abject BS.

Wish you'd take your views on this to the politics forum - it's out of place here.

Geektastic

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#2525324 18-Jul-2020 20:44

From today’s Daily Telegraph, fyi

“The hunt for a "game-changing" antibody test may be over after a version backed by the UK Government passed its first major trials with flying colours.

Ministers are drawing up plans to distribute millions of free pregnancy-style tests after they were shown to be 98.6 per cent accurate in secret human trials held last month, The Telegraph can disclose.

Developed by Oxford University in partnership with leading UK diagnostics firms, the fingerprick test, designed for use at home, can tell within 20 minutes whether a person has ever been exposed to coronavirus.

Until now, the only antibody tests approved in the UK have involved blood samples sent to laboratories for analysis, which can take days.

"This rapid test appears to be truly amazing, and it shows we can do this ourselves," said Sir John Bell, Oxford's Regius Professor of Medicine, who leads the Government's antibody testing programme.”

Handle9

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#2525325 18-Jul-2020 20:49

Fred99:
Handle9:

People saying "OMG anyone who suggests more people entering the country is trying to kill my grandmother" are just as crazy as those saying "it's just a flu"

Well that's an utter BS comparison. The more people who come in (until there's a solution to the "covid problem") then the more chance we'll introduce the disease, and yes - that's got a high probability of "killing your grandmother" (or someone else's) That's science.

"It's just a "flu" isn't science - it's abject BS.

Wish you'd take your views on this to the politics forum - it's out of place here.

I don't agree that it's a BS argument as one assigns a motive that isn't there. You are of course absolutely correct that more people coming into the country could cause an out break.

I agree that there is a highly political aspect to this but it's inextricably linked to health given the impact on everything by COVID.

Fred99

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#2525327 18-Jul-2020 20:54

frankv:
Dingbatt:

So according the the CDC, the current mortality rate in the US from PIC (Pneumonia Influenza Covid) has reduced to just above the seasonal baseline and epidemic threshold after a massive spike around week 18-20 (final graph in this report).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Can someone explain why this has trended down so sharply when all the news indicates the opposite?

I noticed the same thing. According to worldometer infections are rising exponentially but deaths are about constant. Something has changed about 6 weeks ago.

While IFR may have fallen due to better clinical management, the ~1% (+/- ? %) is as good a guide as any, if the CFR is higher than that, then many cases are not being detected by testing.

Age demographics of regions where it's now spreading - there's higher % of old people in the US, UK, Europe than in Brazil, India etc.

From a very quick google search - about 6% are over 65 in India - 9% in Brazil, but about 22% in NZ. I'd expect that the fatality rate in NZ as % of total population to be double that of Brazil - if it gets out of hand here.

Fred99

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#2525331 18-Jul-2020 21:13

Geektastic: From today’s Daily Telegraph, fyi

“The hunt for a "game-changing" antibody test may be over after a version backed by the UK Government passed its first major trials with flying colours.

Ministers are drawing up plans to distribute millions of free pregnancy-style tests after they were shown to be 98.6 per cent accurate in secret human trials held last month, The Telegraph can disclose.

Developed by Oxford University in partnership with leading UK diagnostics firms, the fingerprick test, designed for use at home, can tell within 20 minutes whether a person has ever been exposed to coronavirus.

Until now, the only antibody tests approved in the UK have involved blood samples sent to laboratories for analysis, which can take days.

"This rapid test appears to be truly amazing, and it shows we can do this ourselves," said Sir John Bell, Oxford's Regius Professor of Medicine, who leads the Government's antibody testing programme.”

It's great that these tests are improving - but they're not really solving a problem. A super quick, cheap, and highly sensitive test for viral RNA is what's needed.

Presence of / levels of IgG antibodies in serum and correlation with "immunity" isn't known yet, and these tests won't pick up newly infected highly contagious cases.

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Oblivian

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#2525333 18-Jul-2020 21:18

Dingbatt:

So according the the CDC, the current mortality rate in the US from PIC (Pneumonia Influenza Covid) has reduced to just above the seasonal baseline and epidemic threshold after a massive spike around week 18-20 (final graph in this report).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Can someone explain why this has trended down so sharply when all the news indicates the opposite?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-data-cdc-hospitals-trump-administration/ ...

Geektastic

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#2525354 18-Jul-2020 22:30

Fred99:
Geektastic: From today’s Daily Telegraph, fyi

“The hunt for a "game-changing" antibody test may be over after a version backed by the UK Government passed its first major trials with flying colours.

Ministers are drawing up plans to distribute millions of free pregnancy-style tests after they were shown to be 98.6 per cent accurate in secret human trials held last month, The Telegraph can disclose.

Developed by Oxford University in partnership with leading UK diagnostics firms, the fingerprick test, designed for use at home, can tell within 20 minutes whether a person has ever been exposed to coronavirus.

Until now, the only antibody tests approved in the UK have involved blood samples sent to laboratories for analysis, which can take days.

"This rapid test appears to be truly amazing, and it shows we can do this ourselves," said Sir John Bell, Oxford's Regius Professor of Medicine, who leads the Government's antibody testing programme.”

It's great that these tests are improving - but they're not really solving a problem. A super quick, cheap, and highly sensitive test for viral RNA is what's needed.

Presence of / levels of IgG antibodies in serum and correlation with "immunity" isn't known yet, and these tests won't pick up newly infected highly contagious cases.

I presume that they believe that they are solving some problem, given the money and human effort being expended.

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#2525356 18-Jul-2020 22:36

Geektastic:

I presume that they believe that they are solving some problem, given the money and human effort being expended.

true or not i'm not sure but according to relatives in Europe - antibody = go back to work (with same precautions as everyone but in the eyes of the govt they are deemed immune)

Fred99

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#2525358 18-Jul-2020 22:54

Remember when the US was outraged by what the whistleblower doctor in Wuhan disclosed?

Now, in America:

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20200717/ousted-florida-data-manager-rebekah-jonesrsquo-whistleblower-complaint-takes-aim-at-desantis

Jones has said her superiors at the Health Department asked her in late April to falsify statistics, such as what percentage of coronavirus tests showed positive results. DeSantis wanted the state’s public-facing website to show that the percentage of positive tests over two weeks were below 10 percent even if the numbers were higher, she said.

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#2525362 18-Jul-2020 23:07

Fred99:

Remember when the US was outraged by what the whistleblower doctor in Wuhan disclosed?

Now, in America:

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20200717/ousted-florida-data-manager-rebekah-jonesrsquo-whistleblower-complaint-takes-aim-at-desantis

Jones has said her superiors at the Health Department asked her in late April to falsify statistics, such as what percentage of coronavirus tests showed positive results. DeSantis wanted the state’s public-facing website to show that the percentage of positive tests over two weeks were below 10 percent even if the numbers were higher, she said.

my friend said if the covid started in the US the world would be 10X worse off than covid starting in China

mattwnz

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#2525385 19-Jul-2020 00:19

frankv:
Dingbatt:
So according the the CDC, the current mortality rate in the US from PIC (Pneumonia Influenza Covid) has reduced to just above the seasonal baseline and epidemic threshold after a massive spike around week 18-20 (final graph in this report).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Can someone explain why this has trended down so sharply when all the news indicates the opposite?

I noticed the same thing. According to worldometer infections are rising exponentially but deaths are about constant. Something has changed about 6 weeks ago.

I think there is quite a big lag in deaths occurring. My understanding is that some people can get significantly worse after a long period of time with the virus. It also could be down to more testing occurring so more people being detected with the virus.

mattwnz

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#2525386 19-Jul-2020 00:22

Fred99:
Geektastic: From today’s Daily Telegraph, fyi

“The hunt for a "game-changing" antibody test may be over after a version backed by the UK Government passed its first major trials with flying colours.

Ministers are drawing up plans to distribute millions of free pregnancy-style tests after they were shown to be 98.6 per cent accurate in secret human trials held last month, The Telegraph can disclose.

Developed by Oxford University in partnership with leading UK diagnostics firms, the fingerprick test, designed for use at home, can tell within 20 minutes whether a person has ever been exposed to coronavirus.

Until now, the only antibody tests approved in the UK have involved blood samples sent to laboratories for analysis, which can take days.

"This rapid test appears to be truly amazing, and it shows we can do this ourselves," said Sir John Bell, Oxford's Regius Professor of Medicine, who leads the Government's antibody testing programme.”

It's great that these tests are improving - but they're not really solving a problem. A super quick, cheap, and highly sensitive test for viral RNA is what's needed.

Presence of / levels of IgG antibodies in serum and correlation with "immunity" isn't known yet, and these tests won't pick up newly infected highly contagious cases.

I think the tests will be good on filtering out positive cases coming into NZ. But unless it is 100 percent accurate all incoming visitors will still need to do 14 days quarantine. luckily it is only 14 days imo.

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#2525401 19-Jul-2020 08:20

Regarding the Oxford at-home 20 minute test, here's the original source article. Given its importance and that it's behind a paywall, I'm posting verbatim

'Game-changing' coronavirus antibody test passes first major trials

Telegraph Exclusive By Bill Gardner, 18 July 2020 NZ time

Ministers draw up plans to distribute millions of free fingerprick tests after they were found to be 98.6 per cent accurate

by Bill Gardner

The hunt for a "game-changing" antibody test may be over after a version backed by the UK Government passed its first major trials with flying colours.

Ministers are drawing up plans to distribute millions of free pregnancy-style tests after they were shown to be 98.6 per cent accurate in secret human trials held last month, The Telegraph can disclose.

Developed by Oxford University in partnership with leading UK diagnostics firms, the fingerprick test, designed for use at home, can tell within 20 minutes whether a person has ever been exposed to coronavirus.

Until now, the only antibody tests approved in the UK have involved blood samples sent to laboratories for analysis, which can take days.

"This rapid test appears to be truly amazing, and it shows we can do this ourselves," said Sir John Bell, Oxford's Regius Professor of Medicine, who leads the Government's antibody testing programme.

Tens of thousands of prototypes have already been manufactured at factories across the UK in anticipation of expected regulatory approval in the coming weeks.

Ministers hope the AbC-19 lateral flow test will be available for use in a mass screening programme before the end of the year. The new tests have been developed by the UK Rapid Test Consortium (UK-RTC), a partnership between Oxford University and leading UK diagnostics firms including Abingdon Health, based in York.

The partnership was set up by the Government shortly after a consignment of Chinese-made fingerprick tests hailed by Boris Johnson as "game-changers" turned out to be largely useless.

Dr Chris Hand, the leader of the UK-RTC and chairman of Abingdon Health, revealed that the new UK-made test passed its first major clinical trial last month, involving nearly 300 people and conducted by scientists at Ulster University.

"It was found to be 98.6 per cent accurate, and that's very good news,” Dr Hand told The Telegraph.

Results showed that the test produced a positive result in 98.8 per cent of cases where the patient was thought to have been infected with the virus. In patients who were not thought to have been infected, the test gave a negative test in 98.1 per cent of cases.

Overall that means a 98.6 per cent accuracy in a population where 10 per cent of the population are positive, or less than 2 per cent of either false positives or false negatives. The results were based on a sample of 292 patients.

Dr Hand added: "We've had two shifts of R&D personnel working day and night, seven days a week. This sort of development programme would normally take a year. We've done it in 10 weeks.

"We're now scaling up with our partners to produce hundreds of thousands of doses every month."

Whitehall sources warned, however, that scientists are still unsure whether the presence of antibodies means a person is immune to coronavirus and can return to normal life without fear of re-infection.

A Public Health England study, called Siren, is currently under way, in which thousands of health workers have had their blood analysed to try and discover whether antibodies confer immunity.

At Thursday's Downing Street briefing, Dido Harding, the head of the NHS Test and Trace programme, said there were no plans "immediately" to roll out antibody testing until "the science gives us that answer we’re searching for".

But Dr Hand revealed that the Department of Health is already in behind the scenes negotiations with the UK-RTC over the purchase of millions of tests before the end of the year.

"We're working with the Department of Health on the commercial side of things, the procurement agreements and so on. One of the key things is to make sure that we provide value for money," he said.

Under Government plans, the tests will be distributed to healthcare professionals first before being made available for millions of people to use at home, who would then send in their results to a central database.

"At the moment, this test is a tool to gather knowledge," Dr Hand said. "The objective is to allow mass testing, which you can't really do by sending samples to a lab. By being able to test millions of people, it will gather information so that we know how many people have antibodies, whether they protect against reinfection and how long they last."

Under plans drawn up by officials, the tests would be free and ordered online rather than sold in supermarkets. Each kit will come in a box with a QR barcode linking to a video showing the user how to safely prick their own finger and administer the test.

Ministers also hope the tests will be useful in determining whether future vaccinations against coronavirus have triggered the desired response.

"If coronavirus is like flu and people need an annual vaccine, we will need mass antibody testing to measure people's antibody response to that vaccine. That's part of the plan," Dr Hand said.

In April, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) banned fingerprick tests sold in Superdrug and Boots – with which users were asked to post blood samples for analysis – over concerns about accuracy.

Unlike many rivals, the UK-RTC version uses the "full-length spike protein" part of the virus to capture so-called IgG antibodies as blood passes through the home test. If the result is positive, two pink lines appear within 20 minutes.

"We're using a particular capture mechanism for the antibodies which allows our test to be very sensitive," Dr Hand said. "As far as we know, others were using other smaller fractions of the virus. Our scientific opinion and that of Oxford University is that the full-length spike protein is the way to go."

Three batches of tens of thousands of prototypes have been manufactured for validation testing. In the next few weeks, data will be submitted to the MHRA watchdog for regulatory approval.

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesman said: "We have received an extraordinary response to our call to action to supply antibody tests, and we continue to work with industry to identify further tests that are safe and accurate to be used at home.

"While these tests will help us better understand how coronavirus is spreading across the country, we do not yet know whether antibodies indicate immunity from reinfection or transmission."

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