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Technofreak
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  #2643828 28-Jan-2021 21:17
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This from a RNZ article

 

 

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said with transport making up the country's second-highest amount of emissions after agriculture it was "important we reduce emissions from our vehicle fleet".

 

Transport Minister Michael Wood said the government had agreed in principle to mandate a lower-emitting biofuel blend across the transport sector.

 

"Over time this will prevent hundreds of thousands of tonnes of emissions from cars, trucks, trains, ships and planes.

 

The government can mandate all they like if the product isn't available then it won't happen. I know bio fuels have been tested in aircraft but the regulatory hurdles for aviation could be challenging. We don't make aviation fuel here as far as I know. Even if we did the regulatory requirements may be prohibitive for the relatively small amount we might make. Once a gain we will most likely be reliant on what the market has available.





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kingdragonfly
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  #2644015 29-Jan-2021 10:58
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tdgeek: If you can afford a new EV a subsidy won't matter. I'll take free money though.


If you can't afford it, the subsidy isn't relevant



And there's cheapskates like me. Since I have a finite amount of money, saving money always matters.

Even if an EV is cheaper in the long run, if you save some money by waiting a short while, you'd be ahead financially.

If the government said "no, we'll never subsidized EVs," I'd say "OK. no need to wait. Might as well look now."

Right now it's a mixed message: "we want you to buy now. Just ignore the fact you may lose money by buying now, instead of waiting for an announcement."

Obraik
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  #2644066 29-Jan-2021 12:10
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tdgeek:

 

From what Ive read here, charging seems no issue for most.

 

If you can afford a new EV a subsidy won't matter. I'll take free money though.

 

If you can't afford it, the subsidy isn't relevant

 

Its gangbusters in Norway, their subsidies actually make EV's cheaper than the ICE equivalent. That would work :-)

 

We need Govt and Corporates to buy up big, that will leak into mainstream in a few years.

 

We need a good range of sizes, types, models, makes, and they all have good and continually good stocks.

 

 

Yeah I agree, there's no real need for the government to get into investing in EV charging infrastructure. While ChargeNet already gets some funding from the contestable fund, as more EVs end up on the road there will be more getting into the game to start making money from them. Service stations have already started putting a charger or two at some of their more busy stations and as more EVs are on the road that will happen more and more as they need to continue to draw people into their shops to upsell a Kitkat and Coke. In Europe where EVs are much more abundant, Shell just bought out a EV charging network as an example.

 

As for the subsidy, yes, if you can afford it the subsidy won't matter. But for many who can afford to buy a entry level or midrange new car if the EV is a $10k+ more than the ICE options, they're going to go with the latter. The subsidy should bring an EV option to the budget of more new car buyers. 





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tdgeek
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  #2644091 29-Jan-2021 12:57
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Obraik:

 

As for the subsidy, yes, if you can afford it the subsidy won't matter. But for many who can afford to buy a entry level or midrange new car if the EV is a $10k+ more than the ICE options, they're going to go with the latter. The subsidy should bring an EV option to the budget of more new car buyers. 

 

 

Id like to hope that if a nice EV is 10k more then the same ICE, most would go EV. We expect a premium it depends how much premium we would suck up

 

But yes, the subsidy would add more buyers as it gets a few more over that line


jonathan18
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  #2644092 29-Jan-2021 12:58
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Obraik:

 

As for the subsidy, yes, if you can afford it the subsidy won't matter. But for many who can afford to buy a entry level or midrange new car if the EV is a $10k+ more than the ICE options, they're going to go with the latter. The subsidy should bring an EV option to the budget of more new car buyers. 

 

 

Didn't the proposed feebate scheme provide for different levels of subsidy depending on the car's 'green' credentials, ie increasing from hybrid to PHEV to BEV? 

 

A subsidy would almost certainly affect my decision to purchase a new BEV vs what I would be currently looking at for my next car (a standard hybrid); that jump in cost to a BEV will inevitably simply be too much to justify (unless my investment, aka Lotto, pays off!), and reducing that differential a healthy amount could well make the difference.

 

I'm interested in seeing what that new Nissan Ariya comes in at in NZ; given what they charge for the Leaf it's still going to be substantial so I'd be needing that subsidy I'm sure. The Ariya is the minimum size I'd be looking to buy: Our G1 Leaf is fine as a city car, but ahs nothing like enough boot space for road trips.


Obraik
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  #2644095 29-Jan-2021 13:07
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jonathan18:

 

Didn't the proposed feebate scheme provide for different levels of subsidy depending on the car's 'green' credentials, ie increasing from hybrid to PHEV to BEV? 

 

A subsidy would almost certainly affect my decision to purchase a new BEV vs what I would be currently looking at for my next car (a standard hybrid); that jump in cost to a BEV will inevitably simply be too much to justify (unless my investment, aka Lotto, pays off!), and reducing that differential a healthy amount could well make the difference.

 

I'm interested in seeing what that new Nissan Ariya comes in at in NZ; given what they charge for the Leaf it's still going to be substantial so I'd be needing that subsidy I'm sure. The Ariya is the minimum size I'd be looking to buy: Our G1 Leaf is fine as a city car, but ahs nothing like enough boot space for road trips.

 

 

I feel like Nissan is too late with Ariya. The Model Y is cheaper than the targeted Airya price while also being bigger, better range and better performance. The Mustang Mach-E also looks better on paper than the Ariya





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Scott3
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  #2644103 29-Jan-2021 13:23
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tdgeek: If you can afford a new EV a subsidy won't matter. I'll take free money though.

 

If you can't afford it, the subsidy isn't relevant

 

Plenty of people exist that can afford a new EV, but don't feel the current pricepoints of new EV's offers value compared to the petrol alterntives.

 

Subsidies are mostly about getting more adoption, by tipping those at the margins towards the government favored outcome.

 

For example the USA has a USD7500 tax credit available for those purchasing an EV. For those with enough tax liability it effectively works as a subsidy. USD7500 = NZD10,450

 

Take somebody shopping for a new mini as an example. Lets assume they have off street parking, and that the car is replacing a 6 year old mini which never left they city, as the outer car in the household is x5 which they perfer for out of town trips. And lets assume the buyer doesn't really care what fuel their car runs on.

Current 3 door mini pricing:

 

  • Cooper: $41,900 base
  • Cooper S: $51,000 base
  • Cooper works: $59,000 base
  • Mini Electric (cooper SE): $59,990

In terms of performance, the electric mini is a lot faster than the Cooper, and a touch slower than the Cooper S. A cira $10k reduction in price (can't be sure where the incidents of the subsidy would land) would have the electric mini at $49,990. Only an $8000 premium over the base cooper, and making it the obvious value pick in the group for our hypothetical buyer. At it's current price point's, a $18k price premium is a large jump over the cooper, and for somebody willing to spend that sort of money, the cooper works offers a lot more performance for the same coin.

 

Given we arn't that far away from maxing out supply of used EV's from japan, it is pretty important that our policies encourage a lot of new EV's to be sold so these trickle down to used car buyers in a decade or so.

 

 

 

kingdragonfly:

And there's cheapskates like me. Since I have a finite amount of money, saving money always matters.

Even if an EV is cheaper in the long run, if you save some money by waiting a short while, you'd be ahead financially.

If the government said "no, we'll never subsidized EVs," I'd say "OK. no need to wait. Might as well look now."

Right now it's a mixed message: "we want you to buy now. Just ignore the fact you may lose money by buying now, instead of waiting for an announcement."

 

The previous term of government sadly actively worsened the situation.

 

They said that the current RUC exemption would be left to lapse at the end of this year. (which will leave EV's paying triple the road tax of a yaris hybrid), stating that the high purchase price was a greater barrier to entry, and that they wanted to tackle that instead.

They also announced (but subsequently failed to pass) the clean car discount which would have applied a $8,000 subsidy to New EV's. This means that anybody who brought a EV after announcement was missing out on the discount, but were going to have to pay RUC's for all but the first year or two of the vehicles life. Making matters worse, once the discount kicked in, the resale value of their car would likely drop by several thousand dollars, as people can now buy new EV's cheaper.

 

When NZ first blocked the clean car discount, it was quietly dropped (no big announcement that they no longer support EV subsidies) from labors election portfolio, but retained by the green party. A lot of people think will will see subsidies like USA, Japan, UK etc, so are continuing to delay their purchases / EV upgrades.

 

Unsurprisingly Growth in EV sales ended up well below our targets.

 

 

 

It's all very stupid. Subsidies for products a government wants to encourage should only be announced when they are willing to immediately action them. Announcing them a year in advance is quite stupid. 


 
 
 

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jonathan18
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  #2644111 29-Jan-2021 13:30
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Obraik:

 

I feel like Nissan is too late with Ariya. The Model Y is cheaper than the targeted Airya price while also being bigger, better range and better performance. The Mustang Mach-E also looks better on paper than the Ariya

 

 

... provided Tesla can sort out their QC!

 

Interesting to read of the different outcomes for Tesla in the latest JD Power surveys of the US vs China; kinda hoping that when we finally get the Y it comes from China, as I'm not sure I'd be too keen on dropping that sort of money on a car where QC is such an issue.


Obraik
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  #2644115 29-Jan-2021 13:38
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jonathan18:

 

Obraik:

 

I feel like Nissan is too late with Ariya. The Model Y is cheaper than the targeted Airya price while also being bigger, better range and better performance. The Mustang Mach-E also looks better on paper than the Ariya

 

 

... provided Tesla can sort out their QC!

 

Interesting to read of the different outcomes for Tesla in the latest JD Power surveys of the US vs China; kinda hoping that when we finally get the Y it comes from China, as I'm not sure I'd be too keen on dropping that sort of money on a car where QC is such an issue.

 

 

IMO, QC is an overblown "issue" when it comes to Tesla. 

 

All Tesla's for New Zealand now come from the China gigafactory. The Model Y for NZ will be coming from there. The new Model S and X announced yesterday are not due to start shipping here until next year (so there will be no new S or X vehicles at all this year) and I suspect that this may be due to waiting for the China gigafactory to come online with those models too. 





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Scott3
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  #2644116 29-Jan-2021 13:40
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Obraik:

 

I feel like Nissan is too late with Ariya. The Model Y is cheaper than the targeted Airya price while also being bigger, better range and better performance. The Mustang Mach-E also looks better on paper than the Ariya

 

 

As a new car you are likely correct. Ariya price-points in yen seem about 50% higher than the leaf, so where Nissan NZ offers the leaf for $60k, I would expect the Ariya to start at $90k.

 

As you say it would be undercut in price by the Tesla model y, that many would see as a more desirable vehicle.

 

Even though the Ariya is a much better effort than the nissan leaf (has active batter cooling etc), Nissan will sadly have a lingering reputation of producing cheap EV's with high battery degradation.

 

 

 

That said, the Ariya will sell in large numbers in the Japanese domestic market. (Japanese market seems to love domestic automakers, and I think this is going to replace the leaf in Nissan's line up). Many of these will collect the Japan EV subsidy, and 1 - 3 years of depreciation before heading to NZ in the $45k - $65k price range, which will well undercut NZ new used alternatives.

 

This does mean (as with the Nissan Leaf), anybody buying a new one from Nissan NZ will take a bath on depreciation, as cheaper used imports flood the market.

 

Come 2035, I predict these will be the "New" Nissan leaf, with 10,000+ mostly used imports on our roads.

 

 

 

 

 

I am in a similar boat. A 2014 leaf is fine as the 2nd car in the household, but Something Ariya / Model Y size (possibly model 3 with a roof box) would be the minimum size / specs to replace our larger car. Currently have a Lexus RX400h, which suits our needs well. Come 2025, the Ariya is likely to be the cheapest used pure EV on trade-me that would meet our needs.


jonathan18
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  #2644124 29-Jan-2021 13:56
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Obraik:

 

IMO, QC is an overblown "issue" when it comes to Tesla. 

 

All Tesla's for New Zealand now come from the China gigafactory. The Model Y for NZ will be coming from there. The new Model S and X announced yesterday are not due to start shipping here until next year (so there will be no new S or X vehicles at all this year) and I suspect that this may be due to waiting for the China gigafactory to come online with those models too. 

 

 

I doubt I'd seriously look to buy a Y without some form of subsidy, but at this point now I know it'll be Chinese-sourced it would probably be at the front of my BEV shortlist, noting I generally agree with your comments re the (lack of) value of the Ariya. 

 

What's the Mach-E's boot space supposed to be like, especially compared to the Y? On Ford's website it states 29 cubic feet which apparently is 821 litres, which I imagine must be to the roof level (so not typically how I compare cars...)


Obraik
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  #2644125 29-Jan-2021 14:07
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Tesla hasn't released measurements for the Y that show the cargo room with the rear seats up. However, with the rear seats down the Y has around 300L more. Both are bigger than the Nissan, though - 400L smaller than the Mach-E with seats up.





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lxsw20
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  #2644139 29-Jan-2021 14:31
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My flatmate here in the Uk just got a 2021 Model 3. Both tail lights have moisture issues, front bumper is a noticeably different shade, RH B pillar camera has moisture issues meaning it switches off a lot of the smart drive features and complains of a dirty camera. It's a company car so he doesn't really care, but I know if I spent £47k on a car i'd expect a lot better.


frankv
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  #2644169 29-Jan-2021 16:18
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kingdragonfly:

 


Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is encouraging Kiwis to spend more on cars to purchase environmentally-friendly options, but ACT's climate spokesperson says not everyone can afford to.

 

ACT caring about the poor... why am I cynical? But perhaps they'd like the Government to subsidise EVs to the point where everyone *can* afford to buy one?

 

Realistically, the very poor won't own or drive cars much and there's not many of them, so their impact on the environment will be limited. The very rich will drive a lot more, but will be buy an EV if they want to, regardless of price. But there's very very few in this group, so they won't have much impact either.

 

It's the middle ground where a financial incentive will make a difference to their purchase decision, where there are a lot of people, and who each travel a fair bit.

 

 


Technofreak
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  #2644170 29-Jan-2021 16:37
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frankv:

 

kingdragonfly:

 


Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is encouraging Kiwis to spend more on cars to purchase environmentally-friendly options, but ACT's climate spokesperson says not everyone can afford to.

 

ACT caring about the poor... why am I cynical? But perhaps they'd like the Government to subsidise EVs to the point where everyone *can* afford to buy one?

 

Realistically, the very poor won't own or drive cars much and there's not many of them, so their impact on the environment will be limited. The very rich will drive a lot more, but will be buy an EV if they want to, regardless of price. But there's very very few in this group, so they won't have much impact either.

 

It's the middle ground where a financial incentive will make a difference to their purchase decision, where there are a lot of people, and who each travel a fair bit.

 

 

 

 

I don't think the spokesman is saying anything about the poor at all. The PM is telling Kiwis generally to spend more to purchase environmentally friendly options, no mention of subsidy.

 

Based on the very high proportion of Japanese used imports on our roads I'd say a very high proportion of the population don't have the money to spend the extra required to buy an equivalent EV. I bought a new car about 18 months ago, there was no way I could afford an equivalent EV and I'm not what I'd call poor. Certainly not rich either but probably better off than a good proportion of the population.





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