NZ 2023 Election Thread

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#3135631 27-Sep-2023 20:17

mudguard:

quickymart:

A query I have re the minor parties. Since Liz Gunn's Loyal (lol) "party" (lol) only actually registered 2 candidates, if by some miracle she manages to make 5% and gets into Parliament, how many seats would she get, and - assuming it's more than 2 - what would happen to the other seats? Would they sit vacant or something?

I do try look at all candidate websites, and especially as there seem to be plenty of NZ Loyal signs near where I live, I had a look. Man oh man. I think this line stood out.

Apologies in advance as it's distressing, and mods feel free to remove. But I can't believe they're putting stuff like this on their website.

NB I have always been a centre voter, so please don't see this as some kind of endorsement.

Liz Gunn has morphed from being a once-respected newsreader into a horrible, nasty, vindictive, evil piece of work (especially posting horrible misinformation like that), and I am looking forward to seeing her falling flat on her face when she loses the election. Which she will. It's all she deserves.

Yes I acknowledge I sound quite petty holding the above viewpoint about her, but having heard the way she speaks about some people - most notably Jacinda Ardern in a vile, threatening manner - I feel my viewpoint is somewhat justified.

GV27

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#3135763 28-Sep-2023 10:40

Sounds like Hipkins had a good result in the debate. I suspect it's too little too late, but it may at least stop the slow bleeding out of the centre voters. He may have a harder time convincing the left that his slow drip-feeding of new policy until right before the next election is the way to go.

It sounds like their 'fiscal plan' review was simply confirming some columns added up to be the right amount, with about as much inspection of the actual sensibleness of it as National's tax plan. I don't have high hopes for National's Friday fiscal plan either, but Labour certainly doesn't have the moral high ground on this to justify the way they've been carrying on.

On current polling, even if Hipkins was to claw together 61 seats (and he'll need Winston to do it, remember), the extent of the compromises he'd have to make (less so the Greens because they just tend to rollover come negotiation stage and they won't even deal with National) is a bit of an alarming prospect. He can try and portray NZ First as Luxon's problem all he wants, but he'll be on the blower to Winston on election night if there's a sniff of him getting back in.

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#3135822 28-Sep-2023 11:24

GV27:

Sounds like Hipkins had a good result in the debate. I suspect it's too little too late, but it may at least stop the slow bleeding out of the centre voters. He may have a harder time convincing the left that his slow drip-feeding of new policy until right before the next election is the way to go.

It sounds like their 'fiscal plan' review was simply confirming some columns added up to be the right amount, with about as much inspection of the actual sensibleness of it as National's tax plan. I don't have high hopes for National's Friday fiscal plan either, but Labour certainly doesn't have the moral high ground on this to justify the way they've been carrying on.

On current polling, even if Hipkins was to claw together 61 seats (and he'll need Winston to do it, remember), the extent of the compromises he'd have to make (less so the Greens because they just tend to rollover come negotiation stage and they won't even deal with National) is a bit of an alarming prospect. He can try and portray NZ First as Luxon's problem all he wants, but he'll be on the blower to Winston on election night if there's a sniff of him getting back in.

Debate wise Luxon nailed it. Talked louder, talked longer, interjected so hard to hear what Hipkins said, threw in a few smalmy jibes, nailed it. Hipkins improved over last time.

But from what was said Luxon was poor, never answered questions, just rolled out vague campaign slogans. Lots of words, zero substance, we know nothing from what he said.

Their fiscal plan, they won't release the model, Labour has. Nationals was vetted as plausible, which means it could happen. Labours was vetted as credible

Hipkins won't be calling Peters. End of story. He has stated that for all of us to hear, Luxon avoided it, now he finally says he will call Peters. National will win this election we all know that, it just depends if NZF are there or not. The fiscal plan has holes, so the holes will need to be added to the exisitng cuts to fund it, plus NZF.

One thing I found weird was that Luxon wont resign if his tax cut holes turn out to be correct. But he will resign if the abortion law is changed.

In my view its all about Peters now. Nats and ACT have dropped a little, so they need NZF voters urgently to shift to nats/ACT. The manner and words that Luxon and Seymour are giving at Peters, wont achieve picking up any NZF votes, they need to reduce any comment about NZF IMO. Make it an ongoing issue, it will bite back to their detriment

A fascinating time

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#3135878 28-Sep-2023 11:52

I still can't believe NZF is polling over 5% its like some boomer driven nightmare. Who on earth is voting for winston he's 78 years old for goodness sake

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#3135880 28-Sep-2023 12:02

JPNZ:

I still can't believe NZF is polling over 5% its like some boomer driven nightmare. Who on earth is voting for winston he's 78 years old for goodness sake

No idea, but this is ominous from the Herald

Since 1996, Peters has helped form three governments. If he is a part of the Government after the election he will have helped form 40 per cent of all governments in the MMP era, having been the decisive partner in most of them.

So, should that come to pass, Oct 15 news will say, "we had a great chat, the three of us, we are all good now"

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#3135881 28-Sep-2023 12:03

JPNZ:
I still can't believe NZF is polling over 5% its like some boomer driven nightmare. Who on earth is voting for winston he's 78 years old for goodness sake

He has been courting the pro-plague faction of society so I suspect that is taking votes from Tamaki and bumped him up a percentage point.

I think there is zero chance that Chippie will call Winston even if Luxon doesn’t get over 61 and will say Winny is your problem… good luck.i

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#3135882 28-Sep-2023 12:05

JPNZ:

I still can't believe NZF is polling over 5% its like some boomer driven nightmare. Who on earth is voting for winston he's 78 years old for goodness sake

Still younger than Biden, and arguably a lot more present than Biden too.

Come October 14th I predict -

National/Act will get the votes to govern alone. Elements of labour/greens supporters will see the writing on the wall and vote strategically to keep NZF out.

Labour will have its worst ever result, going from being able to govern alone to less than 30 mps in the house (likely under 25).

Hipkins will resign (if not on the night, before Christmas).

Greens won't quite hit their polling number but will still have a strong presence.

With the strategic voting, NZF won't make 5%

Maori party will win 2 electorate seats

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GV27

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#3135889 28-Sep-2023 12:23

tdgeek:

Their fiscal plan, they won't release the model, Labour has. Nationals was vetted as plausible, which means it could happen. Labours was vetted as credible

Hipkins won't be calling Peters. End of story. He has stated that for all of us to hear, Luxon avoided it, now he finally says he will call Peters. National will win this election we all know that, it just depends if NZF are there or not. The fiscal plan has holes, so the holes will need to be added to the exisitng cuts to fund it, plus NZF.

Like I say, there's ample evidence of Hipkins saying one thing and doing another. At what point does is actual track record on this matter?

Labour's fiscal plan is a couple of spreadsheets. I was keen to know what a 'review' of these actually entails. Is the underlying assumptions for the figures themselves, or is it a top-level review of checking that rows and tables add-up and not a whole lot more? So I did a bit of reading of the report, and this is the actual comment from Infometrics:

Infometrics has been commissioned by the
Labour Party to provide an independent
fiscal review to verify that the spending
and revenue commitments contained in
our manifesto can be managed within the
Budget allowances in PREFU.

Infometrics have confirmed that Labour’s
policy commitments can be met within the
PREFU allowances. They have examined
the high-level assumptions underpinning
the policy costings to confirm that the
value of the fiscal programme is as set
out in this Fiscal Strategy. They have also
confirmed that that the costings appear
to be reasonable assessments, conditional
on the underpinning assumptions of each
policy and commitment.

So what does the National Tax Plan - of which there has been major interrogation of the assumptions (far more so than the Labour one, I might add) say?

Castalia Advisors have found that National’s tax plan is “based on reasonable assumptions about future government
revenues and expenditures and generally its calculations represent reasonable estimates”. They have identified
National’s estimates as “cautious and consistent”.

Castalia has found that the total level of savings identified by National, in conjunction with the Government’s savings
programme announced on the 28th of August, is “possible and plausible”.

So in other words, these are essentially boilerplate but they should be considered equally credible. I'm not sure there's much wiggle room here to say Labour's is more meaningfully assured than National's. And that's before you take into account Labour's spending record and their ability to stay within their stated allowances (not something they've managed post- or pre-COVID).

I will be interested to see what the notes on the National fiscal plan being released tomorrow are.

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#3135891 28-Sep-2023 12:28

GV27:

So in other words, these are essentially boilerplate but they should be considered equally credible. I'm not sure there's much wiggle room here to say Labour's is more meaningfully assured than National's. And that's before you take into account Labour's spending record and their ability to stay within their stated allowances (not something they've managed post- or pre-COVID).

I will be interested to see what the notes on the National fiscal plan being released tomorrow are.

Pretzel warning: Twisted logic ahead!

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

tdgeek

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#3135894 28-Sep-2023 12:45

GV27:

I will be interested to see what the notes on the National fiscal plan being released tomorrow are.

It will be. Labours is a list of numbers and assumptions. Nationals is a list of numbers that we dont know and assumptions we don't know. We wont know tomorrow either I suspect. So o that I see that Labour's is more disclosed. Plausible?

Yes, Labour's has little wiggle room, its tight. because our and global economies are tight after a couple of things that happened :-) So its conservative. Had national disclosed their tax cuts funding as requested over and over, then its all on the table, can be scrutinised. That there has been ongoing concerns by many, including economists, begs the question, why not resolve all of that and tell us the model?

GV27

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#3135898 28-Sep-2023 12:53

tdgeek:

That there has been ongoing concerns by many, including economists, begs the question, why not resolve all of that and tell us the model?

Probably because PREFU comes late in the cycle? If you want an actual model then you need information to plug into it. They have now. Hence Friday.

The tax plan and the Labour Fiscal Plan have had the assumptions reviewed. Both have been found credible to the same standard.

If the National Fiscal Plan has the same review commentary and the same level of detail, are you going to be satisfied?

And if not, are you going to at least take into account that Grant Robertson has not in any single year managed to stay within the operating allowances forecast in the Budget? Because, like I keep repeating, their actual track record has to count for something at some point - or are we just saying they could have been competent fiscal managers but simply chose not to be?

GV27

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#3135899 28-Sep-2023 12:53

Rikkitic:

Pretzel warning: Twisted logic ahead!

Another stunning contribution.

tdgeek

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#3135915 28-Sep-2023 13:10

GV27:

Probably because PREFU comes late in the cycle? If you want an actual model then you need information to plug into it. They have now. Hence Friday.

The tax plan and the Labour Fiscal Plan have had the assumptions reviewed. Both have been found credible to the same standard.

If the National Fiscal Plan has the same review commentary and the same level of detail, are you going to be satisfied?

And if not, are you going to at least take into account that Grant Robertson has not in any single year managed to stay within the operating allowances forecast in the Budget? Because, like I keep repeating, their actual track record has to count for something at some point - or are we just saying they could have been competent fiscal managers but simply chose not to be?

Yep, they have adjusted for PREFU, but the issue is having an invisible spreadsheet, where the bottom cells are there, not the workings.

I dont agree that both are found to be the same standard, otherwise no one will be repeatedly asking for the model. Im a little surprised that you see them as equally disclosed

I'll be ok if both models are disclosed. I wont bicker over plausible vs credible

Any budget, yours, mine, businesses or Govt should be accurate, although they wont obviously end up 100% exact at the end of any given fiscal period. But close enough, and allowing for external factors that were not able to be forecast. If GR's were free of any external factors, then yes, not great, I agree. I guess where you and I diverge is that I feel there have been significant external factors

But its all good. National will win, I just want to see how NZF figures in the equation

GV27

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#3135919 28-Sep-2023 13:18

tdgeek:

Yep, they have adjusted for PREFU, but the issue is having an invisible spreadsheet, where the bottom cells are there, not the workings.

I dont agree that both are found to be the same standard, otherwise no one will be repeatedly asking for the model. Im a little surprised that you see them as equally disclosed

I'll be ok if both models are disclosed. I wont bicker over plausible vs credible

Any budget, yours, mine, businesses or Govt should be accurate, although they wont obviously end up 100% exact at the end of any given fiscal period. But close enough, and allowing for external factors that were not able to be forecast. If GR's were free of any external factors, then yes, not great, I agree. I guess where you and I diverge is that I feel there have been significant external factors

But its all good. National will win, I just want to see how NZF figures in the equation

You want a small country from NZ to have no external factors before you want to hold a finance minister to spending blowouts? I mean... why even bother having one, at that point. Like seriously.

You don't know what is in the National fiscal plan because they haven't released it yet. You have a tax policy which as been externally vetted. Exactly the same arrangement as the Labour fiscal plan, with pretty much exactly the same review commentary. But the Labour one is somehow to a higher standard.

But let's see what tomorrow brings, although I'm prepared to wager that it won't meet whatever standard you want to hold it to, which incidentally will be a far higher bar than you would consider hold Labour to.

Rikkitic

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#3135922 28-Sep-2023 13:23

GV27:

Another stunning contribution.

Nothing more needed from me as you have provided, in exhausting and unrelenting detail, over and over and over again, how this government has so badly let down the side.

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