Jacinda Ardern - our new PM

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#1952904 7-Feb-2018 12:58

networkn:

@rikkitic I have 2 really straightforward questions for you. Just yes and no.

1) Do you think that it's reasonable to raise the minimum wage from 15.75, to $20.20 in 3 years?

2) Do you still think it's reasonable to do it, when the people responsible for measuring the impact of that decision (treasury), advise that the likely effect, is the loss of 58,000 jobs?

To give you some perspective, 12,000 jobs were added in New Zealand last Quarter, in one of the strongest employment periods of modern times.

The rise in minimum wage is a good move and a very much needed move to stop greater job loses. Inflation is rising, currently tipping the 2%. Power, petrol, rents and foods are rising and mortgages are tipped to rise. If the minimum wage is not raised then spending power gets arrested, this inturn slows the domestic market and tip the economy into recession. The risk for job loses and company closures from that would be greater.

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#1952906 7-Feb-2018 12:58

Rikkitic:

Edit: This is my reply to networkn. I meant to put it in a quote.

I really would like to go do something else for awhile but I will show you the respect of answering your questions anyway. In return, I ask that you allow me to explain my answers. My answer to both is yes.

Why? Because New Zealand is stuck in a low wage economy. Instead of generating employment through increased productivity and smart investment, we rely on paying starvation wages that people can't live on. I think this is wrong. I also think it does not have to be this way.

Because this approach is built in, any change will be a wrench, especially for small businesses. But I think it has to happen and I think those affected will adjust to it over time. I am not an economist and I could be completely wrong about this, as you will no doubt point out, but this is what I honestly believe. Low wages are demeaning and damaging to those who cannot get better jobs. They make it impossible to get ahead or build anything up. If a company can only stay in business by exploiting its workers, then it has a lousy business model and does not deserve to survive. Someone, some time, has to change things. It didn't happen under previous governments so maybe this is just that time.

58,000 jobs certainly does sound like a lot, but that figure on its own doesn't mean much. What kind of jobs? In what industries? Maybe some jobs aren't worth keeping. Maybe those jobs or something better will come back after the shock has been adjusted to. Many of your comments seem to carry an implicit assumption that Jacinda Ardern and her ministers and her own advisors and the many other professional people around her are all illiterate children playing in a sandbox. I don't agree with that assessment. They have a different political ideology than National, which favours business interests over employee interests, but I do not accept that they are out to destroy our way of life, either through intent or ignorance. And that is all I really want to say on the matter.

We are NOT stuck in a low wage economy when you look at our population and profits made by the commercial sector. I think you would prefer to go back in time to the Muldoon era where everything was regulated.

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#1952908 7-Feb-2018 13:00

MikeB4:

networkn:

@rikkitic I have 2 really straightforward questions for you. Just yes and no.

1) Do you think that it's reasonable to raise the minimum wage from 15.75, to $20.20 in 3 years?

2) Do you still think it's reasonable to do it, when the people responsible for measuring the impact of that decision (treasury), advise that the likely effect, is the loss of 58,000 jobs?

To give you some perspective, 12,000 jobs were added in New Zealand last Quarter, in one of the strongest employment periods of modern times.

The rise in minimum wage is a good move and a very much needed move to stop greater job loses. Inflation is rising, currently tipping the 2%. Power, petrol, rents and foods are rising and mortgages are tipped to rise. If the minimum wage is not raised then spending power gets arrested, this inturn slows the domestic market and tip the economy into recession. The risk for job loses and company closures from that would be greater.

Don't you see that raising the minimum wage, will cause everyone to pay more for products and services?

I am not lamenting *a* payrise, I am lamenting the thoughtless massive increase over a very small period of time.

MikeB4

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#1952909 7-Feb-2018 13:03

networkn:

MikeB4:

networkn:

@rikkitic I have 2 really straightforward questions for you. Just yes and no.

1) Do you think that it's reasonable to raise the minimum wage from 15.75, to $20.20 in 3 years?

2) Do you still think it's reasonable to do it, when the people responsible for measuring the impact of that decision (treasury), advise that the likely effect, is the loss of 58,000 jobs?

To give you some perspective, 12,000 jobs were added in New Zealand last Quarter, in one of the strongest employment periods of modern times.

The rise in minimum wage is a good move and a very much needed move to stop greater job loses. Inflation is rising, currently tipping the 2%. Power, petrol, rents and foods are rising and mortgages are tipped to rise. If the minimum wage is not raised then spending power gets arrested, this inturn slows the domestic market and tip the economy into recession. The risk for job loses and company closures from that would be greater.

Don't you see that raising the minimum wage, will cause everyone to pay more for products and services?

I am not lamenting *a* payrise, I am lamenting the thoughtless massive increase over a very small period of time.

Why thoughtless?

networkn

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#1952921 7-Feb-2018 13:16

Why thoughtless?

Treasury specifically advised against it. Saying that a longer period of time would prevent job losses of that scale.

Poorly planned and thought out is probably more accurate. It's apparent in so many of the policies that Labour announced, which have subsequently been walked completely, or so much so as to long no longer represent the spirit in which the policy was annouced.

Don't you recall JA charging like a bull at the gate over tax reviews (read increases)?

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#1952924 7-Feb-2018 13:19

networkn:

Why thoughtless?

Treasury specifically advised against it. Saying that a longer period of time would prevent job losses of that scale.

Poorly planned and thought out is probably more accurate. It's apparent in so many of the policies that Labour announced, which have subsequently been walked completely, or so much so as to long no longer represent the spirit in which the policy was annouced.

Don't you recall JA charging like a bull at the gate over tax reviews (read increases)?

You do realise that Cabinet gets advice from many quarters. Also Jacinda Ardern does NOT make every decision.

How many times does treasury get it wrong?

networkn

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#1952926 7-Feb-2018 13:25

MikeB4:

You do realise that Cabinet gets advice from many quarters. Also Jacinda Ardern does NOT make every decision.

How many times does treasury get it wrong?

Yes, I do understand that, however, in this regard, treasury would be primary, and they in turn get data from many quarters, including looking at the impact of similar actions taken by similar countries in the past.

If they are wrong, they could be wrong in both directions, the numbers could be much higher as well. Even if it were half the projected numbers, it's still very poor.

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#1952928 7-Feb-2018 13:36

networkn:

MikeB4:

You do realise that Cabinet gets advice from many quarters. Also Jacinda Ardern does NOT make every decision.

How many times does treasury get it wrong?

Yes, I do understand that, however, in this regard, treasury would be primary, and they in turn get data from many quarters, including looking at the impact of similar actions taken by similar countries in the past.

If they are wrong, they could be wrong in both directions, the numbers could be much higher as well. Even if it were half the projected numbers, it's still very poor.

So how do those on minimum wage expected to live? if mine or your mortgage goes up or power goes up we will meet it by say instead of having a 20 day holiday abroad we have a 15 day, or the car replacement is delayed a few months. Then again we could reduce our savings from say23% of income to 21.5% of income. Those on the minimum wage do not have the luxury it comes out of their food, Health essential clothing money.

You say that Treasury are the primary here, I would dispute that, MSD,MBIE, Health advisors would carry more weight on their advice.

networkn

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#1952930 7-Feb-2018 13:52

MikeB4:

So how do those on minimum wage expected to live? if mine or your mortgage goes up or power goes up we will meet it by say instead of having a 20 day holiday abroad we have a 15 day, or the car replacement is delayed a few months. Then again we could reduce our savings from say23% of income to 21.5% of income. Those on the minimum wage do not have the luxury it comes out of their food, Health essential clothing money.

You say that Treasury are the primary here, I would dispute that, MSD,MBIE, Health advisors would carry more weight on their advice.

When do those on the minimum wage need to take *some* responsibility for their own lives?

If I continually struggled to meet my expenses, and it was because I was in a low wage job, I would (and did) take the initiative to get trained, and resolve it. I didn't ask the Government to spoon feed me my solution. For the time I was on government support, I was constantly looking for a way off it. It's not nice to live like that (and my family history is to have a long reliance on this so I know more than a little about this personally).

Aside from that, again I am not suggesting NO increase, I am extolling a slightly longer period of time and also potentially a slightly smaller increase to the maximum level (I'd have said pay to $19 over 4-5 years).

You still haven't commented on the fact that higher wages will increase the cost of products and services, which will just eat up a very large percentage of that same increase.

Minimum wage should be something that is temporary, like Government assistance.

The answer is, in my view, education of those on minimum wage.

MikeB4

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#1952934 7-Feb-2018 14:00

networkn:

MikeB4:

So how do those on minimum wage expected to live? if mine or your mortgage goes up or power goes up we will meet it by say instead of having a 20 day holiday abroad we have a 15 day, or the car replacement is delayed a few months. Then again we could reduce our savings from say23% of income to 21.5% of income. Those on the minimum wage do not have the luxury it comes out of their food, Health essential clothing money.

You say that Treasury are the primary here, I would dispute that, MSD,MBIE, Health advisors would carry more weight on their advice.

When do those on the minimum wage need to take *some* responsibility for their own lives?

If I continually struggled to meet my expenses, and it was because I was in a low wage job, I would (and did) take the initiative to get trained, and resolve it. I didn't ask the Government to spoon feed me my solution. For the time I was on government support, I was constantly looking for a way off it. It's not nice to live like that (and my family history is to have a long reliance on this so I know more than a little about this personally).

Aside from that, again I am not suggesting NO increase, I am extolling a slightly longer period of time and also potentially a slightly smaller increase to the maximum level (I'd have said pay to $19 over 4-5 years).

You still haven't commented on the fact that higher wages will increase the cost of products and services, which will just eat up a very large percentage of that same increase.

Minimum wage should be something that is temporary, like Government assistance.

The answer is, in my view, education of those on minimum wage.

So everyone has the ability to retrain I think not. How does the sole income earner take time off to retrain? Everyone has the intellectual or physical ability to retain I think not. Reality is a huge percentage are caught in a poverty trap, it is very easy to victim blame.

networkn

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#1952943 7-Feb-2018 14:18

MikeB4:

So everyone has the ability to retrain I think not. How does the sole income earner take time off to retrain? Everyone has the intellectual or physical ability to retain I think not. Reality is a huge percentage are caught in a poverty trap, it is very easy to victim blame.

Minimum wage earners are not victims.

There is always going to be people earning the minimum wage, either inexperienced or untrained, or potentially even younger people. There are always going to be low paid low skilled jobs that need doing. Someone has to dig the ditches or hold a road sign etc. I'd suggest a very small percentage of minimum wage earners are completely incapable of ever doing anything to improve their lot.

Just as it is easy to "victim blame" it's also easy to make excuses for people to not TRY and help themselves.

You still haven't commented on the likely impact to cost of services, products, and ultimately inflation to those earning minimum wage.

$15.75 > $20.20 is a MASSIVE increase. What other part of NZ workforce will see a nigh 30% increase in salaries and wages over the same time?

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#1952955 7-Feb-2018 14:42

The thing that concerns me about minimum wage increase is that it may become self defeating. Specifically that the increase in minimum wage may drive price increases that cumulatively negate the benefits of the wage increase.

By goods and services becoming more expensive, by resulting interest rate increases, and by resulting increases in rent.

Mike

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#1953054 7-Feb-2018 15:53

If one looks at the average weekly rents and compares this to the minimum wage as it is now they are well over 60% of a gross wage on 40 hours per week. After the increase to $20.20 and no rent increases the average rent would still hover around 60% of gross weekly on that wage. Therefore with only tax, rent and power paid for there is next to nothing left for luxuries like food, clothing and medical. The increase certainly is not excessive in human terms.

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#1953158 7-Feb-2018 17:47

networkn:

MikeB4:

So how do those on minimum wage expected to live? if mine or your mortgage goes up or power goes up we will meet it by say instead of having a 20 day holiday abroad we have a 15 day, or the car replacement is delayed a few months. Then again we could reduce our savings from say23% of income to 21.5% of income. Those on the minimum wage do not have the luxury it comes out of their food, Health essential clothing money.

You say that Treasury are the primary here, I would dispute that, MSD,MBIE, Health advisors would carry more weight on their advice.

When do those on the minimum wage need to take *some* responsibility for their own lives?

If I continually struggled to meet my expenses, and it was because I was in a low wage job, I would (and did) take the initiative to get trained, and resolve it. I didn't ask the Government to spoon feed me my solution. For the time I was on government support, I was constantly looking for a way off it. It's not nice to live like that (and my family history is to have a long reliance on this so I know more than a little about this personally).

Aside from that, again I am not suggesting NO increase, I am extolling a slightly longer period of time and also potentially a slightly smaller increase to the maximum level (I'd have said pay to $19 over 4-5 years).

You still haven't commented on the fact that higher wages will increase the cost of products and services, which will just eat up a very large percentage of that same increase.

Minimum wage should be something that is temporary, like Government assistance.

The answer is, in my view, education of those on minimum wage.

The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
32nd U.S. President

Yes, I've posted it before, then and now it is for your selfish, I'm all right jack, it's all their own fault attitude you have towards those New Zealanders who may be worse off than you. You proudly spout this attitude continuously in this forum...

Fortunately we dont live in the kind of New Zealand you want us all to live in.

MaxLV

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#1953162 7-Feb-2018 17:58

MikeAqua:

The thing that concerns me about minimum wage increase is that it may become self defeating. Specifically that the increase in minimum wage may drive price increases that cumulatively negate the benefits of the wage increase.

By goods and services becoming more expensive, by resulting interest rate increases, and by resulting increases in rent.

In New Zealand and around the world, modest boosts to the minimum wage have failed to trigger the catastrophic effects detractors prophesy, writes Branko Marcetic

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11939826

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