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Dingbatt:
we obviously haven’t learnt much from history.
Perhaps. It comes down to the mitigation cost and how often these events happen. All of us are exposed to another pandemic, we could build many many MIQ hotels that will stay empty, we could EQ reinforce every house in NZ, we could build massive concrete stop banks all round NZ, we could have more hospitals than we will ever need in case of a pandemic, the list is endless. AKL is on a volcanic field, we could move AKL. All we can really do is mitigate what we can, we cannot avoid everything.
Re the HB flooding, best we can do is either move towns or construct diversion waterways. The latter is good idea, but what about other flood prone areas across NZ? If that storm re occurred but in a different location, we have the same issue elsewhere.
tdgeek:
Dingbatt:
we obviously haven’t learnt much from history.
Perhaps. It comes down to the mitigation cost and how often these events happen. All of us are exposed to another pandemic, we could build many many MIQ hotels that will stay empty, we could EQ reinforce every house in NZ, we could build massive concrete stop banks all round NZ, we could have more hospitals than we will ever need in case of a pandemic, the list is endless. AKL is on a volcanic field, we could move AKL. All we can really do is mitigate what we can, we cannot avoid everything.
Re the HB flooding, best we can do is either move towns or construct diversion waterways. The latter is good idea, but what about other flood prone areas across NZ? If that storm re occurred but in a different location, we have the same issue elsewhere.
where do you move to? valleys tend to have flooding, hill sides slip, ridgelines high winds.
really need to find why it was so bad and mitigate that risk. especially those who had flash floods.
for eg i've been watching California which is having major flooding. however have a look at their water control systems, its huge and complex. they have large cities protected by stop banks and a lot of the farm land is used for water diversion (ie flood the farm land instead of the city). we have small scale version of that just north of whangerai.
tweake:
where do you move to? valleys tend to have flooding, hill sides slip, ridgelines high winds.
really need to find why it was so bad and mitigate that risk. especially those who had flash floods.
for eg i've been watching California which is having major flooding. however have a look at their water control systems, its huge and complex. they have large cities protected by stop banks and a lot of the farm land is used for water diversion (ie flood the farm land instead of the city). we have small scale version of that just north of whangerai.
Exactly. Everywhere in NZ is exposed to something.
It was so bad as there was a lot of rain and a lot of wind... We caused that by not attending to climate change, and we still aren't, we just tickle the edges.
Yes, the LA type of waterways, the new Orleans levees. Why would NZ do that as it costs money and it hardly ever happens. It hardly ever happens in LA and New Orleans too. But it can and it does. NZ is slow off the mark as usual. Esk Valley needs to be attended to now.
tdgeek:
Perhaps. It comes down to the mitigation cost and how often these events happen. All of us are exposed to another pandemic, we could build many many MIQ hotels that will stay empty, we could EQ reinforce every house in NZ, we could build massive concrete stop banks all round NZ, we could have more hospitals than we will ever need in case of a pandemic, the list is endless. AKL is on a volcanic field, we could move AKL. All we can really do is mitigate what we can, we cannot avoid everything.
Re the HB flooding, best we can do is either move towns or construct diversion waterways. The latter is good idea, but what about other flood prone areas across NZ? If that storm re occurred but in a different location, we have the same issue elsewhere.
There's an easier midpoint though.
We have plenty of hotels, and they can be repurposed during a pandemic, perhaps just plan for how to do that effectively.
We already have floodplains here, all over the place. But we built on them, maybe stop that and increase density instead.
We have plenty of hospitals, but through general neglect of the population they run at nearly 100% as standard. Focus on population health which will pay dividends anyway (note the recent discourse that for every $5 prescription fee collected, the government actually pays around $18 in poor health outcomes due to people who can't afford that).
Stuff costs money though, and we (as a collective whole) keep voting people in on platforms of basically austerity and tax cuts. In fact, neither of the major parties is particularly different on that front now.
We know the solutions, none of this is actually hard. We just won't do any of them.
Pretty much a global phenomenon unfortunately. We need to fix this, we need to focus on that, oh yes you're so right, why didn't we do this already...what - you want me to pay extra for it, what -it might make things a little less inconvenient for me, what - you actually expect me to make a little sacrifice, oh no, can't have that.
“The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.” -John Kenneth Galbraith
rb99
rb99:
Pretty much a global phenomenon unfortunately. We need to fix this, we need to focus on that, oh yes you're so right, why didn't we do this already...what - you want me to pay extra for it, what -it might make things a little less inconvenient for me, what - you actually expect me to make a little sacrifice, oh no, can't have that.
+1 but what makes it worse here is our culture of making money from housing. no one wants to pay extra for anything so they can maximise the profit.
realistically most likely what will happen is houses in bad locations will be expensive to insure, become less desirable, so only poor people will live there.
tdgeek:
It was so bad as there was a lot of rain and a lot of wind... We caused that by not attending to climate change, and we still aren't, we just tickle the edges.
Can you clarify;
Who are “we”?
Humanity or are you specifically referring to Aotearoa?
What does “attending to climate change” mean?
Do you mean reducing NZ’s 0.17% of global emissions? Or do you mean put all our resources into trying to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change?
Yes, I’m sure we’re entirely to blame*. The warming of the Arafura and Coral Seas and the blocking high over the Chatham Islands caused by the strong La Niña had nothing to do with it. Neither did the upper level trough. Or as one observer noted, last year’s eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai underwater volcano, which threw an estimated 9.5 cubic kilometres of material into the atmosphere.
* Not without blame though.
“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996
Back in October this guy predicted a summer of floods in east coast Australia, partly due to the effect of the Tongan underwater volcano eruption:
I think some of these discussions miss the multiplying factor of slash in these events.
Gouging out the landscape, bringing down ever more large other bits of tree and whole trees.
Forming dams that pressure stockbanks already gouged from inside, while downstream when it breaks the flood comes in sudden torrents of ever more corrosive debris.
Bridges, and any kind of structure that can withstand a waterflow, is just battered to destruction, houses likewise.
Power and communication infrastructure and roads not just covered in water but gouged out of the landscape.
Its how a Sunami can become more destructive as it spreads inland gathering more debris.
Even the deep covering a silt, up to car roof in some places.
How much of that silt is there because the corrosive torrent of slash gouged it out of river bed and banks ?
Dingbatt:
tdgeek:
It was so bad as there was a lot of rain and a lot of wind... We caused that by not attending to climate change, and we still aren't, we just tickle the edges.
Can you clarify;
Who are “we”?
Humanity or are you specifically referring to Aotearoa?
What does “attending to climate change” mean?
Do you mean reducing NZ’s 0.17% of global emissions? Or do you mean put all our resources into trying to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change?
Yes, I’m sure we’re entirely to blame*. The warming of the Arafura and Coral Seas and the blocking high over the Chatham Islands caused by the strong La Niña had nothing to do with it. Neither did the upper level trough. Or as one observer noted, last year’s eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai underwater volcano, which threw an estimated 9.5 cubic kilometres of material into the atmosphere.
* Not without blame though.
Humanity is to blame, as in we
Attending to climate change means doing what was needed to reduce emissions, a LOT earlier. Too late now
Yes, they are always many variables with weather, and you noted a few. All natural, but exacerbated by increasing air temperature, which a great deal is absorbed into the seas. For NZ, warmer air and warmer seas will traverse to lower latitudes, so we will see more tropical based weather
Dingbatt:JarrodM: ………I would not be surprised if this is the deadliest natural disaster in our history.
I really hope you are wrong. A quick search of “NZ Natural Disasters” provided the following stats (abridged);
It depends whether the OP meant "deadliest" literally or figuratively, "caused the most damage". For some of the historic natural disasters the population density in the affected areas was relatively low and the amount of infrastructure present for (say) Tarawera to destroy was pretty minimal, a lot of it could be replaced by unskilled labour sawing up a few more native trees and nailing them together (simplified somewhat). Now we've got high population densities and massive amounts of infrastructure that needs lots of skilled labour and specialised materials to replace.
Dingbatt:JarrodM: ………I would not be surprised if this is the deadliest natural disaster in our history.I really hope you are wrong. A quick search of “NZ Natural Disasters” provided the following stats (abridged);
Phew!
Finally got news of friends on the south side of the Esk River Valley. They are on slightly higher ground so avoided the worst of it. They now have a petrol generator going for some power, which is just as well because they have been told it will be at least a month before they are connected to the grid again.
“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996
tdgeek: Attending to climate change means doing what was needed to reduce emissions, a LOT earlier. Too late now
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