2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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204 posts

Master Geek

#2674817 15-Mar-2021 12:09

wellygary:
tdgeek:

Ok, I guess that's saying they cannot trust a negative test

Sort of,

Its just they are unsure if there will have been enough time between exposure and the test to develop enough viral load for detection...

As mentioned above, we did the same in the most recent outbreak, requiring close and close+ to test at 5 days and at 12 days, and to isolate for the full period...

If time between exposure and time to develop a detectable viral load were the only factors then I think we’d be treating casual and close contacts the same and testing at day 12 also and isolating for 14 days? They’ve both had exposures. The only difference is the likelihood of actually being infected which defines the difference between a casual and close contact.

antonknee

1133 posts

Uber Geek

#2674865 15-Mar-2021 13:58

'What about us?' Kiwi expats and the Covid-19 border restrictions | Stuff.co.nz

Not to be rude but honestly zero sympathy - lived overseas for 15 years, last visit was 2 years ago for a funeral, but claims "Seems a bit harsh that they’ve locked the borders, and it’s now just so difficult to come home". After 15 years, is NZ even home any more?

In the article he's described as wanting a 'visit'. My humble opinion is people should not be visiting each other in the midst of a global pandemic - perhaps wait until widespread vaccination to indulge your visiting needs. Different story if you're coming back for a funeral or an emergency of some kind.

Complains flights are expensive and MIQ spots are limited. Yes that's the point, international travel ought to be close to minimal during a pandemic. I've said it before and I'll say it again, you have had ample time to come back if you wish to make NZ home again.

sbiddle

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#2675094 15-Mar-2021 18:22

So looking at the NSW case could this be the first case in this part of the world of a vaccine working exactly as intended?

Yes he wasn't near the 10ish days afterwards where good immunity has developed, but was it enough that when picked up by routine saliva surveillance testing he was asymptomatic and potentially had a very low viral load which is exactly what the vaccine should do?

It's a reminder that when we do open our borders to the world at some point in 2022 that we will be introducing Covid into the country, and it will exist as a low level endemic virus in our community which is the real risk for antivaxxers.

Oblivian

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#2675099 15-Mar-2021 18:26

sbiddle:

So looking at the NSW case could this be the first case in this part of the world of a vaccine working exactly as intended?

Yes he wasn't near the 10ish days afterwards where good immunity has developed, but was it enough that when picked up by routine saliva surveillance testing he was asymptomatic and potentially had a very low viral load which is exactly what the vaccine should do?

It's a reminder that when we do open our borders to the world at some point in 2022 that we will be introducing Covid into the country, and it will exist as a low level endemic virus in our community which is the real risk for antivaxxers.

Cross them fingers. Not released the load, just the source confirmed as a traveller thus far

authorities were reviewing CCTV footage of an infected traveller at the Sofitel in Sydney, where the security guard worked on 6 March, after genomic sequencing matched their infections.

Not reported as 'clear cut' method.

Batman

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#2675104 15-Mar-2021 18:48

sbiddle:
So looking at the NSW case could this be the first case in this part of the world of a vaccine working exactly as intended?

Yes he wasn't near the 10ish days afterwards where good immunity has developed, but was it enough that when picked up by routine saliva surveillance testing he was asymptomatic and potentially had a very low viral load which is exactly what the vaccine should do?

It's a reminder that when we do open our borders to the world at some point in 2022 that we will be introducing Covid into the country, and it will exist as a low level endemic virus in our community which is the real risk for antivaxxers.

Risk to antivaxxers is an oxymoron

Handle9

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#2675107 15-Mar-2021 18:57

antonknee:

'What about us?' Kiwi expats and the Covid-19 border restrictions | Stuff.co.nz

Not to be rude but honestly zero sympathy - lived overseas for 15 years, last visit was 2 years ago for a funeral, but claims "Seems a bit harsh that they’ve locked the borders, and it’s now just so difficult to come home". After 15 years, is NZ even home any more?

In the article he's described as wanting a 'visit'. My humble opinion is people should not be visiting each other in the midst of a global pandemic - perhaps wait until widespread vaccination to indulge your visiting needs. Different story if you're coming back for a funeral or an emergency of some kind.

Complains flights are expensive and MIQ spots are limited. Yes that's the point, international travel ought to be close to minimal during a pandemic. I've said it before and I'll say it again, you have had ample time to come back if you wish to make NZ home again.

What you have written isn't what he said.

Batman

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#2675207 16-Mar-2021 06:43

AZ vaccine paused in some countries

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/15/europe/italy-lockdown-europe-coronavirus-monday-scli-intl/index.html

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floydbloke

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#2675218 16-Mar-2021 07:23

sbiddle:

...

when we do open our borders to the world at some point in 2022 that we will be introducing Covid into the country, and it will exist as a low level endemic virus in our community ...

And I really hope that the authorities start including this as part of their official messaging in the near future.

There's a lot of folk out there who are oblivious to this inevitability.

Did Eric Clapton really think she looked wonderful...or was it after the 15th outfit she tried on and he just wanted to get to the party and get a drink?

GV27

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#2675224 16-Mar-2021 07:46

Handle9:

What you have written isn't what he said.

There's a lot of entitled ex-pats out there but this guy seems pretty magnanimous about it:

Having seen the rapid spread of the virus in the United Kingdom, Tannahill supported the Government’s move. The reality of what that meant for him and his fellow Kiwis abroad quickly set in, but so too did the benefits of the decision.

“[It] never really occurred to me at the time that I wouldn’t be able to suddenly go back home easily; [closing the border] just made sense.

”I think it is a bit unfair, but then you flip it around and go, you know, [New Zealand has] managed to keep the virus out.”

antonknee

1133 posts

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#2675282 16-Mar-2021 09:30

Handle9:

What you have written isn't what he said.

I don't see how you figure - they're direct quotes from the article, which are ostensibly direct or indirect quotes from Tannahill? Sure in the article it's acknowledged he agreed with the decision to close the borders, but then details his complaints about not being able to visit and a direct word-for-word quote about it seeming 'unfair'.

Batman

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#2675283 16-Mar-2021 09:31

Brazil hospitals a bit short of beds

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/15/world/brazil-variant-icu-crisis-sao-paulo-intl-latam/index.html

Fred99

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#2675334 16-Mar-2021 10:33

floydbloke:

sbiddle:

...

when we do open our borders to the world at some point in 2022 that we will be introducing Covid into the country, and it will exist as a low level endemic virus in our community ...

And I really hope that the authorities start including this as part of their official messaging in the near future.

There's a lot of folk out there who are oblivious to this inevitability.

There are problems with sending this out as an "official message".

The impact of it can't be known or even guessed until there's some better knowledge of what efficacy of the vaccine will be against prevailing variants at that time, what vaccine uptake will be. Yet there's already intense pressure from some sectors of the economy to "open up" as soon as possible.

NZ is in the fortunate position of having time on our side to observe and decide based on facts - before making a decision from which there will be no return.

It's just another aspect of the same problem that's existed since the start of the pandemic.

Fred99

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#2675464 16-Mar-2021 13:49

From MOH:

We can also report that four wastewater testing samples — three from a site linked to Papatoetoe and one from a wider wastewater collection point, which includes Papatoetoe — last night returned negative results for COVID-19 detection.

This follows a weak positive test result detected on Friday in routine wastewater sampling at the site linked to Papatoetoe, which has been assessed as not posing a risk to the community. The most likely explanation for the weak positive detection is continued shedding of the virus from the recovered COVID-19 cases from the February cluster who have returned home from the Auckland quarantine facility.

Stuff have this in their "news" article but have amazingly omitted to include the parts I've italicised above. Disappointing journalism.

Handle9

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#2675551 16-Mar-2021 15:31

antonknee:
Handle9:

What you have written isn't what he said.

I don't see how you figure - they're direct quotes from the article, which are ostensibly direct or indirect quotes from Tannahill? Sure in the article it's acknowledged he agreed with the decision to close the borders, but then details his complaints about not being able to visit and a direct word-for-word quote about it seeming 'unfair'.

He doesn't say he wants to come for a visit, you do. He says it's a massive process to even contemplate.

The rest about expats having had our chance is almost entirely ignorant.

frankv

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#2675567 16-Mar-2021 16:00

Fred99:

This follows a weak positive test result detected on Friday in routine wastewater sampling

I'm astounded that virus quantities in wastewater can be assessed as weak or strong. I'd have thought that you would need large samples just to find a single covid-19 virus. So, some numbers...

Auckland produces 400 million litres of wastewater per day. A litre/day of sampling seems plausible (say 20*50ml samples), so a single infected person in Auckland would have to shed over 400 million viruses/day just to be able to get an average of one virus in that one litre sample.

I guess an infectious person would shed a lot more (ten times as many?) than 400 million viruses/day to be certain of getting even one into the test sample, and for the testers to be able to distinguish between "weak" (say under 10 viruses/litre) and "strong" (over 10 viruses/litre). So an infectious person produces maybe 4 billion viruses a day, and multiple infectious people are needed to get much beyond 10 viruses/litre.

The number is just staggeringly huge.

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