2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2675576 16-Mar-2021 16:18

frankv:

Fred99:

This follows a weak positive test result detected on Friday in routine wastewater sampling

I'm astounded that virus quantities in wastewater can be assessed as weak or strong. I'd have thought that you would need large samples just to find a single covid-19 virus. So, some numbers...

Auckland produces 400 million litres of wastewater per day. A litre/day of sampling seems plausible (say 20*50ml samples), so a single infected person in Auckland would have to shed over 400 million viruses/day just to be able to get an average of one virus in that one litre sample.

I guess an infectious person would shed a lot more (ten times as many?) than 400 million viruses/day to be certain of getting even one into the test sample, and for the testers to be able to distinguish between "weak" (say under 10 viruses/litre) and "strong" (over 10 viruses/litre). So an infectious person produces maybe 4 billion viruses a day, and multiple infectious people are needed to get much beyond 10 viruses/litre.

The number is just staggeringly huge.

They aren't sampling the whole wastewater outflow, they are getting samples at certain points where suburbs or geographical regions pour into the main "interceptor" sewer...

Hence they were happy that the location this sample came from had a recent community case that had been released from MIQ and gone back to Papatoetoe...

A "weak" sample will be just like a weak nasal sample, The results are all generated by the same PCR test
(the test machine doesn't care what the sample is, nasal throat goo/saliva/waste water, its all the same )...

So it basically means a high CT count...

antonknee

1133 posts

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#2675577 16-Mar-2021 16:22

Handle9:

He doesn't say he wants to come for a visit, you do. He says it's a massive process to even contemplate.

The rest about expats having had our chance is almost entirely ignorant.

Well I think the implication of "Tannahill, who left New Zealand 15 years ago, doesn’t know when he’ll be able to come home next – he’s hoping the situation will improve by Christmas" and "It’s gonna be a massive bureaucratic process to even contemplate going home to New Zealand for a visit" is that one likely desires to come here, but sure he hasn't explicitly said 'I want to visit NZ now'.

I don't think it's ignorant. Just an opinion. Covid-19 has been a feature for over a year now. Notwithstanding a sudden, urgent change in circumstances, I just feel like the time for simply coming home because that's what you feel like doing or you're concerned about Covid-19 has long since passed.

I don't think during a global pandemic is time to be doing international visits to catch up with friends and family - where we have people with seriously ill health or dead family members struggling to book limited MIQ spaces.

csuttonnzl

30 posts

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#2675872 16-Mar-2021 22:49

Interesting, under the trans tasman bubble the Australian government was not going to lift the exit visa requirements for it's citizens.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-government-points-finger-back-at-australia-over-transtasman-travel-bubble-hold-ups/ACYCNUGPM542SJU3XBBGHZBCQI/

Batman

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#2675904 17-Mar-2021 06:54

csuttonnzl: Interesting, under the trans tasman bubble the Australian government was not going to lift the exit visa requirements for it's citizens.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-government-points-finger-back-at-australia-over-transtasman-travel-bubble-hold-ups/ACYCNUGPM542SJU3XBBGHZBCQI/

Without getting too political, the reasoning doesn't make sense. It says govt is worried that too many NZ will go to visit AU and not many AU will visit NZ causing even less tourists in NZ.

If AU needs an exit visa, how hard is it to get one, and at what cost, were they going to relax it anyway.

Of course the news article could be misleading but that's all we got.

Batman

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#2675914 17-Mar-2021 07:11

Moderna is trialing vaccines on babies and children, 6mth upwards. Acc to guardian one line news feed.

DS248

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#2675930 17-Mar-2021 07:43

New Zealand may soon open border to Australians - likely unilaterally (Hipkins)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/124559593/hipkins-says-new-zealand-may-soon-open-border-to-australians

frankv

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#2675937 17-Mar-2021 08:16

wellygary:

frankv:

I'm astounded that virus quantities in wastewater can be assessed as weak or strong. I'd have thought that you would need large samples just to find a single covid-19 virus. So, some numbers...

[snip]

The number is just staggeringly huge.

They aren't sampling the whole wastewater outflow, they are getting samples at certain points where suburbs or geographical regions pour into the main "interceptor" sewer...

Hence they were happy that the location this sample came from had a recent community case that had been released from MIQ and gone back to Papatoetoe...

A "weak" sample will be just like a weak nasal sample, The results are all generated by the same PCR test
(the test machine doesn't care what the sample is, nasal throat goo/saliva/waste water, its all the same )...

So it basically means a high CT count...

Right... Papatoetoe has a population of about 50K, vs Auckland's 1.6M, so orders of magnitude easier. But still staggeringly few needles in a huge haystack.

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vexxxboy

4243 posts

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#2675991 17-Mar-2021 10:09

DS248:

New Zealand may soon open border to Australians - likely unilaterally (Hipkins)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/124559593/hipkins-says-new-zealand-may-soon-open-border-to-australians

they have being saying that for 6 months or so, i will believe it when it actually happens

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Fred99

13684 posts

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#2676042 17-Mar-2021 12:46

First double-blind placebo trial results (published in the NEJM) of the AstraZenica vaccine against B.1.351 (aka South African Variant) has shown very poor efficacy (~10%).

A two-dose regimen of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine did not show protection against mild-to-moderate Covid-19 due to the B.1.351 variant.

Median age of N= ~2000 participants in the trial was 30, so if there were any "moderate to severe" cases, it's probably not statistically significant.

IMO this presents a dilemma, continued use of the vaccine will save lives from other variants, but it's also applying selective pressure for the B.1.351 to become the dominant strain.

Oblivian

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#2676058 17-Mar-2021 12:56

It's certainly not getting media coverage it wants right now

Nations are going to really have to consider if they need to change supplier. WHO was asked to step in over the blood clot stories. This will no doubt raise it's head also

Fred99

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#2676061 17-Mar-2021 13:03

I believe that WHO have advised nations to continue to administer the vaccine. (this in response to the temporary halt by some European countries - because of what's probably been public hysteria fuelled by anti-vaxxers).

Fred99

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#2676076 17-Mar-2021 13:13

China is apparently attempting to bribe countries to use their Sinovac vaccine by promising "streamlining" of a "vaccine passport" to people who intend to travel to China.

OTOH I tend to take all news about China Being Evil with a large grain of salt, then a second large grain of salt when other news reports that China Is Good.

freitasm

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#2676113 17-Mar-2021 14:39

It certainly brings the chemtrail conspiracy to the front: Brazilian politician's cunning plan to fight Covid: spray hand gel from planes

“We’ve got lots of business people here who own helicopters and planes … I don’t know if there’s a liquid version of alcohol gel but I think spraying it would be a good idea because the virus is in the air. It’s like something from another world,” Dias said, according to the news website Metrópoles.

“They use planes to spray crops,” mused the 50-year-old politician, whose state is currently being pummeled by a soaring number of infections and deaths. “Perhaps it’s a good idea because alcohol gel does no harm.”

Batman

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#2676140 17-Mar-2021 15:30

freitasm:
It certainly brings the chemtrail conspiracy to the front: Brazilian politician's cunning plan to fight Covid: spray hand gel from planes

“We’ve got lots of business people here who own helicopters and planes … I don’t know if there’s a liquid version of alcohol gel but I think spraying it would be a good idea because the virus is in the air. It’s like something from another world,” Dias said, according to the news website Metrópoles.

“They use planes to spray crops,” mused the 50-year-old politician, whose state is currently being pummeled by a soaring number of infections and deaths. “Perhaps it’s a good idea because alcohol gel does no harm.”

Wouldn't it be better just to drink the alcohol.

Rikkitic

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#2676144 17-Mar-2021 15:36

If you get drunk enough the viruses stagger around and can't find the way home.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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