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frankv
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  #2775941 10-Sep-2021 12:32
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JPNZ:

 

frankv:

 

What's the economic value of a life?

 

 

Thats the basic question.

 

But, whats your opinion on the way forward then?

 

 

NZTA uses a value of $4.73M when deciding whether an improvement to road safety is worthwhile or not. However, there are some who say that's low, even far too low. Let's go with that though. So it makes economic sense to spend $47M to save 10 lives, or $290M per day to save 61 lives per day. But lockdowns are relatively short, let's say 30 days per year, so annual cost = $8.7B = 1839 lives. So a 1 month lockdown makes sense if it saves 1,839 lives in a year, or about 5 per day.

 

April 14 2020 NZ peaked at 4 covid deaths, but of course by then the outbreak was well under control by lockdown (obviously deaths lag after infections by a week or two). I have no doubt that if we hadn't locked down in March/April, there would have been a great deal more than 5 deaths per day until eventually we did lock down.

 

So locking down was better than doing nothing. Whilst spending less money by investing in ICU beds would have been cheaper, it wasn't (and isn't) possible.

 

 




Fred99
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  #2776009 10-Sep-2021 12:52
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frankv:

 

NZTA uses a value of $4.73M when deciding whether an improvement to road safety is worthwhile or not.

 

 

So Pharmac should fund Zolgensma at ~$3m per treatment to save the lives of ~30 kids a year in NZ...

 

 


tdgeek
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  #2776013 10-Sep-2021 13:05
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7 cases, but more importantly, only 1 of yesterdays 13 was infectious in the community, to me thats the main number we need to worry about




Oblivian
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  #2776015 10-Sep-2021 13:07
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tdgeek:

 

7 cases, but more importantly, only 1 of yesterdays 13 was infectious in the community, to me thats the main number we need to worry about

 

 

7? 11..

 

Scary. I've guessed it right from the trends the last 3 days.

 

 


Fred99
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  #2776016 10-Sep-2021 13:09
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1542 new cases in NSW, 9 deaths 

 

1156 in hospital, 207 in ICU, 89 on ventilators.

 

Victoria recorded 334 new cases and 1 death. 


Oblivian
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  #2776017 10-Sep-2021 13:11
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It's fair to say. No matter how many nits are out there moaning about our own shores.

 

Those there. Are things to be thankful for not seeing.

 

The urgency for ALL those in recent LoI shows how little they want this tail to continue and actually start making a dent. Let's call it surveillance testing. Along with the businesses about to offer it.


GV27
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  #2776019 10-Sep-2021 13:25
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Oblivian:

 

It's fair to say. No matter how many nits are out there moaning about our own shores.

 

Those there. Are things to be thankful for not seeing.

 



 

Just because other places have made a mess of their response doesn't mean we should accept bits of ours not being up to scratch or fundamentally different to what we've been told. 

 

'The lowest bar possible' is not the level of accountability is not how I want our pandemic response to be held to. 


 
 
 

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ezbee
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  #2776020 10-Sep-2021 13:27
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7 Police close contacts of latest Middlemore case must be a story behind this.


tdgeek
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  #2776024 10-Sep-2021 13:32
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ezbee:

 


7 Police close contacts of latest Middlemore case must be a story behind this.

 

 

Yes, the Police was used to find the patient as he self discharged, and the Police were at his address relating to other matters. Dr A was asked of he believed they got full information, and he replied ticking of all procedures that were taken, not if the guy was telling the truth. So yes, more to it


Oblivian
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  #2776026 10-Sep-2021 13:32
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ezbee:

 


7 Police close contacts of latest Middlemore case must be a story behind this.

 

 

From last wednesday at unrelated matter.

 

Presumably someone that gets a visit now and then. And thus didn't want to stick around for longer than needed.


Technofreak
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  #2776028 10-Sep-2021 13:34
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PolicyGuy:

 

Fred99:

 

New case at Middlemore ED

They said they had not been in contact with anyone with the virus, and had not visited any locations of interest.

 

 

If true it'd be bad news, but IMO it's equally likely that either they were careless / forgetful in answering about being at an an LOI (it's a l-o-n-g list now), or they lied about it hoping to avoid an up-your-nose swab test

 

There's lots of worry about vaccine hesitancy, but a recent survey said half the population wouldn't take a swab test even if they had flu-like symptoms. Swab test hesitancy is a much bigger issue right now

 

 

I'd agree on the swab hesitancy having been through it a couple of times. I won't be racing off to get tested every time I have a runny nose.

 

I don't understand why we're so slow rolling out saliva testing. You can even buy self test saliva kits in the UK. Surely having people being able to self test in an easily accessible and non intrusive manner has to be a good first line of defence. I know they may not be as accurate in some cases but this form of testing still vastly improves the chances of detecting the virus in the community. The main issue I've heard of is false positives which can then be double checked with a follow up swab.

 

From what I understand many of the saliva tests have a much faster turn around time than the nasal swab tests do. 

 

I see saliva tests as a good way to screen patients arriving at ED etc

 

While I see self testing as a valuable tool I'm not suggesting self testing is used for cases where a clear test is required, e.g. crossing the 2/4 border. In these cases it needs to be administered by an appropriate person.

 

I also have a vested interest in seeing the saliva tests being rolled out. I will be having to cross the level 2/4 Covid border and from next week will have to have a clear Covid test every week to be able to cross the border. I know border staff have been undergoing regular Covid tests for quite a while now and have been subjected to having the nasal swab test on as regular basis. I think they all deserve a medal for putting up with this invasive test. There's no way I want to be subjected to it on a regular basis.





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Fred99
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  #2776035 10-Sep-2021 13:42
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NSW Premier warns that cases are going to get far worse in coming weeks.

 

Announces that daily announcements / press conferences will cease as from Monday.

 

"Leadership".  Wow.

 

 


Batman

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  #2776040 10-Sep-2021 13:48
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Oblivian:

11..


Scary. I've guessed it right from the trends the last 3 days.


 



I'm not interested in how many cases.

The important statistic is how many of and about while infectious (that's what the MOH call these) and how many mystery cases (that's how the media call these).

Someone can plot these graphs?

wellygary
8312 posts

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  #2776044 10-Sep-2021 13:59
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Fred99:

 

NSW Premier warns that cases are going to get far worse in coming weeks.

 

Announces that daily announcements / press conferences will cease as from Monday.

 

"Leadership".  Wow.

 

 

Sounds like exactly happened in Fiji when the numbers started to get totally out of control...

 

Also the given replacement of "Instead of the daily briefing, NSW Health will publish daily videos outlining the latest information."  

 

will go down like a warm beer for the Oz Journos...

 

 

 

But, high level political leadership will be needed in NSW to change the narrative from cases numbers to deaths, ( which is what will have to happen as they transition to "living with the virus" once they meet certain vax levels) - without it the government will get cut to shreds by the media....

 

 


wellygary
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  #2776046 10-Sep-2021 14:07
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Batman:

I'm not interested in how many cases.

The important statistic is how many of and about while infectious (that's what the MOH call these) and how many mystery cases (that's how the media call these).

Someone can plot these graphs?

 

Daily mystery case number are not very useful because they will subsequently get reclassified if tracing finds links...

 

To produce a chart of any real use you really need access to the case database so you can monitor the status of each daily case across time, and see how long it takes to link cases, 

 

We don't have anywhere near enough info to do that on the daily statements...

 

Also the classification of "being infectious in the community" is only superficially useful... going out to the dairy for milk once until you get contacted as a linked case is a lot better than being out for weeks until you get called.... again all we get is a very high level figure..


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