2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2441664 19-Mar-2020 19:54

tdgeek:

Can you give the link for the known CT?

Every country that has COVID19 has community transmission. New Zealand is no different, it just hasn't been detected yet. The numbers are growing on the exponential curve, similarly to other comparable countries such as Italy.

cddt

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#2441665 19-Mar-2020 19:54

I just had an optimistic thought...

If we are able to get on top of this, as China has, and get down to zero domestically acquired cases for a 2-4 week period, then we could open our borders to China again (mutually). If we're the first to do so - an agreement between two "clean" countries - then it would be a massive boost to our economy.

freitasm

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#2441666 19-Mar-2020 19:56

The press release:

The Government has taken further measures to protect New Zealanders from the COVID-19 virus, effectively stopping all people from boarding a plane to New Zealand from 11:59pm today, except for returning New Zealanders, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today.

New Zealanders’ partners, legal guardians or any dependent children travelling with them may also return.

“Protecting New Zealanders from COVID-19 is our number one priority. In recent days it has become increasingly clear that the spread of the virus in other parts of the world means we need to take even stronger border measures,” Jacinda Ardern said.

“Today’s decision stops any tourist, or temporary visa holder such as students or temporary workers, from coming to and entering into New Zealand.

“The rapidly worsening global health situation means that the threat to people’s health in New Zealand has risen, even in the five days since we took the world-leading step of requiring 14 days of self-isolation for anyone entering the country.

“All of the cases of COVID-19 identified in New Zealand relate to people travelling to New Zealand and bringing the virus with them – therefore we need to further restrict the risk of people bringing the virus into New Zealand.

“All of the evidence to date is that returning New Zealanders understand the requirement for self-isolation but I have become increasingly concerned that visitors to the country either may not be able to adequately self-isolate for 14 days or chose not to and that is an unacceptable risk that we must eliminate.

“These changes also apply to the Pacific, which has previously been exempted.

“It remains the case that the protection of the Pacific from COVID-19 is a major concern for the New Zealand Government and these measures support that.

“A small number of exemptions to the new measures can be sought for humanitarian reasons, essential health workers and citizens of Samoa and Tonga who need to travel to New Zealand for essential reasons.

“The Government understands that this decision will have a significant impact on the economy, which is why we have put in place a world-leading support package for business and will continue to work with and support all affected industries.

“However, such temporary measures are essential if we are to avoid the worst of what we are now seeing overseas,” Jacinda Ardern said.

lchiu7

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#2441668 19-Mar-2020 20:07

The government has been urging Kiwi's to come home. There is a concern that the planes might be a more dangerous place for catching the virus. But according to the CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/faqs.html

it's safer so long as you take precautionary measures. And they don't recommend wearing face masks.

Just for discussion purposes, if somebody wanted to return to say Wellington from the US, they would fly to Auckland. Then have to transfer to Wellington. According to the MoH you take the following precautions.

Transport

If you are self-isolating after being overseas, you may need to travel from the airport where you arrive to another part of New Zealand to get home, for example, by plane, train or bus. It is ok to continue on to the destination where you plan to self-isolate.

While travelling, you should use hand sanitiser regularly. Cough and sneeze into a tissue or your elbow. Where possible, sit in a window seat in a row by yourself. If you are unwell you should seek advice from Healthline before you travel onwards. Once you reach your destination, you cannot use public transport, taxis or similar methods until you finish your 14 days of self-isolation.

So when they reach their final destination (airport) they need to find a way to get to their home. I guess that could be a family member picks them up or some sort of self-drive option

Staying in Wellington. Check out my AirBnB in the Wellington CBD. https://www.airbnb.co.nz/h/wellycbd PM me and mention GZ to get a 15% discount and no AirBnB charges.

freitasm

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#2441670 19-Mar-2020 20:09

This is an interesting Handbook of COVI0-19 Prevention and Treatment.

tdgeek

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#2441671 19-Mar-2020 20:11

Handle9:

tdgeek:

Can you give the link for the known CT?

Every country that has COVID19 has community transmission. New Zealand is no different, it just hasn't been detected yet. The numbers are growing on the exponential curve, similarly to other comparable countries such as Italy.

Yes, I get that, but at 28 we are super low. There may be CT. But with the incubation they should have turned up at ED or doctors. Compared to Australia days ago we should have had 90 cases. But we didn't, and we still dont. The exponential side should have it running away on us, but it isn't. IMHO its contained. If we had CT tomorrow, we do what we have done with imported cases, contact trace, that is the key. And self isolation which IMHO is useless here, but low and low density population means the idiots aren't causing mayhem, yet

To get on the exponential curve we need CT and its runaway. If that occurs, we lock everything down, now. Then we screw the economy, but at least thats before we lost control of the virus. The virus will be here and runaway, but low level. Shutting the economy "should" mean that it will struggle to replicate/spread.

Easy to type though.

dafman

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#2441677 19-Mar-2020 20:14

tdgeek:

Can you give the link for the known CT?

No link.

Commonsense. NZ is not magically different to other countries we are following, Europe, US etc

Let's check back in 10 days.

In the interim, encourage everyone to start behaving like we do now, because we do.

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dogstar001

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#2441678 19-Mar-2020 20:14

Handle9:
tdgeek:

Can you give the link for the known CT?

Every country that has COVID19 has community transmission. New Zealand is no different, it just hasn't been detected yet. The numbers are growing on the exponential curve, similarly to other comparable countries such as Italy.

I would argue that unknown community transmission has yet to be proven but it is probable

tdgeek

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#2441680 19-Mar-2020 20:15

cddt:

I just had an optimistic thought...

If we are able to get on top of this, as China has, and get down to zero domestically acquired cases for a 2-4 week period, then we could open our borders to China again (mutually). If we're the first to do so - an agreement between two "clean" countries - then it would be a massive boost to our economy.

Ive thought of that recently. My wife is Chinese, so disclosure. I heard today while out that China had NO new cases? (or deaths) Its arguably at the bottom of the 190 odd country list now. Yes, that would actually be sensible to allow them to come here, with 100% isolation. Somehow manage that so its "forced" but not forced lol.

Yes, what a massive gain for us, and arguably very low risk.

freitasm

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#2441681 19-Mar-2020 20:17

And read this description of the Imperial College report on COVID19.

tdgeek

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#2441682 19-Mar-2020 20:18

dafman:
tdgeek:

Can you give the link for the known CT?

No link.

Commonsense. NZ is not magically different to other countries we are following, Europe, US etc

Let's check back in 10 days.

In the interim, encourage everyone to start behaving like we do now, because we do.

We are different. And thats why. Low population, low density, wrong time of the year to have hoards travelling here.

10 days is the 29th what's your prediction?

Oblivian

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#2441683 19-Mar-2020 20:18

Despise the comparison to overseas. There are so many factors different between us. If this wasn't the case the hard comparable information would be clearer as time has progressed. And yet it still is in it's infancy and displaying differently by day.

Would love for the definition to be 'detected cases' And 'Active cases'

Like many overseas ports. The first detection were over 2 weeks ago. And have all left hospital and probably nearly back in the community. No longer symptomatic or positive. With no proven direct CT as a result of them during that period and tracing.

But Media like massive growing numbers. Even not being a blip on the radar of 1000+ cases graphs.

Would love to think the death toll in italy alone is enough to put the shoots up anyone keeping track and making them think twice

The commute into CHC cbd has already drastically changed since tuesday by people staying home to avoid the chance of transferal. And long may it continue.

tdgeek

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#2441685 19-Mar-2020 20:21

dogstar001:

I would argue that unknown community transmission has yet to be proven but it is probable

It is, as MoH has stated. But its had plenty of time to show up at ED or Doctors or Healthline. Its either nil or just a few. Thats great news for me anyway.

Handle9

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#2441687 19-Mar-2020 20:31

tdgeek:

[We are different. And thats why. Low population, low density, wrong time of the year to have hoards travelling here.

10 days is the 29th what's your prediction?

400 cases. You are kidding yourself if you think it will be radically different without more extreme controls

tdgeek

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#2441689 19-Mar-2020 20:33

Handle9:

tdgeek:

[We are different. And thats why. Low population, low density, wrong time of the year to have hoards travelling here.

10 days is the 29th what's your prediction?

400 cases. You are kidding yourself if you think it will be radically different without more extreme controls

400 overall or CT or mainly CT?

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