2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2460164 13-Apr-2020 08:08

DS248:

tdgeek: ... but we imported probably a lot more per capita than most. And with a small sample, the clusters we have probably are very high per capita, as we have bugger all per capita.

I think you over rate the significance of the imported content of NZ cases relative to other countries. NZ has far from the highest content of imported cases.

NZ imported content ~40%

Australia, 65% (https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance)

Hong Kong ~58%

Taiwan much higher (last I looked it was well over 80%)

And there will be a good few others

In fact all countries had 100% imported cases, except China. The reduced % now are due to the 100% imports infecting locally. You could argue that we are failing as we now have 60% locally spread infections, as compared to Australia with only 35%. I would assume that our cluster sizes are much higher than elsewhere, per capita. But if you have a low base to begin with, a cluster of 87 is very large. So it makes your %'s non comparable.

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#2460167 13-Apr-2020 08:19

In any case, the metrics we look at change over time. To begin with it was all about the 100% cases being imported. Thats stopped, so now it's CT. Im not sure if we have got a handle on CT now. We get clusters that in most cases seemed avoidable. They grow. If Level 3 is to work, somehow we have to get anyone with any potential symptoms on a new 14 day Level 4 for the individual. That may be workable if someone got a symptom in June, ok, bugger, Ill stay home for 14 days. But immediately after this Level 4 lockdown ends if it does on April 22, it will be a tough ask for many to suck up another 14 days if they have a potential symptom. And that also means members at the same home. Otherwise it leaks. Then we have 4 cases in my suburb, no one knows how, what then?

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#2460168 13-Apr-2020 08:20

There's a lesson for the future from those clusters - large indoor gatherings are a very bad idea when C-19 is in circulation.

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#2460171 13-Apr-2020 08:31

Fred99:

There's a lesson for the future from those clusters - large indoor gatherings are a very bad idea when C-19 is in circulation.

Agree. I dont now how many were avoidable, but take the cattle conference. The virus is spreading through out world so we fly in people from there, no isolation and meet? The wedding at Bluff (I highly recommend that restaurant! Its great) How did that start? Asymptomatic person infected them? Nurse comes back from OZ, goes to work at a rest home, great. There is something missing here.

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#2460173 13-Apr-2020 08:32

Mentions Facebook quite a bit. I recommend you DO NOT USE FACEBOOK, because it's a cesspool of misinformation, and will only increase your stress level.

Helpful COVID-19-related websites and phone numbers in New Zealand

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Fred99

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#2460174 13-Apr-2020 08:48

tdgeek:

Fred99:

There's a lesson for the future from those clusters - large indoor gatherings are a very bad idea when C-19 is in circulation.

Agree. I dont now how many were avoidable, but take the cattle conference. The virus is spreading through out world so we fly in people from there, no isolation and meet? The wedding at Bluff (I highly recommend that restaurant! Its great) How did that start? Asymptomatic person infected them? Nurse comes back from OZ, goes to work at a rest home, great. There is something missing here.

One of the biggest mistakes we made here IMO was not banning gatherings over 5-10 in size sooner.

My wife and I had tickets booked for an indoor event for a thousand or so on the Sunday before lockdown. I was gobsmacked that it wasn't cancelled. We didn't go - forfeited a couple of hundred dollars in ticket costs. The chance of something bad happening was very low, but the low chance of something bad happening multiplied by hundreds of similar events was significant. It was the wrong thing for them not to cancel the event - I guess they were waiting for an instruction - that didn't come.

Same with the St Patrick's day booze-ups. Invites were coming thick and fast on my Facebook feed from local venues. Facing downturn in patrons, they'd also been offering free food and drinks to try to keep their businesses running. Can't blame them as they were losing money - they needed to be told.

My sister had a wedding planned - didn't cancel it until after I (and others apparently) said "sorry - we won't be coming" - there was no way I was getting on a plane and being packed in room full of others - many of whom would have also flown in from afar. Very unfortunate to have to cancel/postpone - but not as sad as having a loved one dying alone in a hospital bed and not being able to have a funeral.

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#2460177 13-Apr-2020 09:09

Fully agree. I hope that there is an inquest of sorts over these clusters. Not so much a blame game, but actually it is a blame game. Just so we can look at each event or cluster and decide that it was unavoidable, or if not was avoidable, what did anyone, from PM, MoH, and any group or individual do that allowed infection to occur. So we can close those loopholes in future. It could something as minor as TDGeek felt a bit crook, but not too bad, but went anyway. Blame is the wrong word, but we need to find who was to blame, so we can add that loophole to the Pandemic Plan. Its certainly not inconceivable that another outbreak occurs next year, or 2025, it can happen anytime. We should have a great deal of learnings from this year.

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#2460188 13-Apr-2020 09:27

Fred99:

There's a lesson for the future from those clusters - large indoor gatherings are a very bad idea when C-19 is in circulation.

Only because they speed up the spread. If *anyone* has this virus it will be spread more slowly than it would at a weddding with 50 people.....until it hits a large familiy....and then BOOM. Same result, just slower to get started.

We have to knock this on the head everywhere because, throughout all this, there have been idiots ignoring the lockdown keeping the background transmission going. It only takes one.

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#2460207 13-Apr-2020 10:18

tdgeek:

Fully agree. I hope that there is an inquest of sorts over these clusters. Not so much a blame game, but actually it is a blame game. Just so we can look at each event or cluster and decide that it was unavoidable, or if not was avoidable, what did anyone, from PM, MoH, and any group or individual do that allowed infection to occur. So we can close those loopholes in future. It could something as minor as TDGeek felt a bit crook, but not too bad, but went anyway. Blame is the wrong word, but we need to find who was to blame, so we can add that loophole to the Pandemic Plan. Its certainly not inconceivable that another outbreak occurs next year, or 2025, it can happen anytime. We should have a great deal of learnings from this year.

From what Dr Bloomfield has said on TV, I gather that MoH are working really hard to identify the 'index case' in each cluster, and that they already have done so in most (maybe not all?) clusters. From that they can work out the original source of infection. It's just a basic part of the contact tracing regime.

The index case in a Hawkes Bay rest home cluster was a person who visited their relative and infected them.
The rest home visitor had worked as a tour guide for a bunch of cruise ship passengers when it was in the port of Napier.
The cruise ship later proved to be riddled with Covid.

So the NZ infection trace is cruise ship -> tour guide -> rest home

Coverage here: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/covid-19/413454/covid-19-16-cases-linked-to-ruby-princess-cruise-ship

ezbee

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#2460212 13-Apr-2020 10:41

With ANZAC Day coming up.

If lock-down level 4 comes off people are going to have to make some tough individual decisions on how they commemorate.

How does that work under Level 3 , and should one push the letter of the level 3 rules to the limit.

Just because you can have certain types of gatherings , or under social distancing should we call them 'scatterings'

Is that the best and most sensible way to handle ?

tdgeek

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#2460213 13-Apr-2020 10:42

PolicyGuy:

From what Dr Bloomfield has said on TV, I gather that MoH are working really hard to identify the 'index case' in each cluster, and that they already have done so in most (maybe not all?) clusters. From that they can work out the original source of infection. It's just a basic part of the contact tracing regime.

The index case in a Hawkes Bay rest home cluster was a person who visited their relative and infected them.
The rest home visitor had worked as a tour guide for a bunch of cruise ship passengers when it was in the port of Napier.
The cruise ship later proved to be riddled with Covid.

So the NZ infection trace is cruise ship -> tour guide -> rest home

Coverage here: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/covid-19/413454/covid-19-16-cases-linked-to-ruby-princess-cruise-ship

Thanks. yes, I'm sure they are, I haven't heard to much about that, but Ill google later in case I missed bits and pieces. As we have moved past watching imports swell the numbers, cluster management is the current big issue.

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#2460224 13-Apr-2020 10:48

tdgeek:

Fully agree. I hope that there is an inquest of sorts over these clusters. Not so much a blame game, but actually it is a blame game. Just so we can look at each event or cluster and decide that it was unavoidable, or if not was avoidable, what did anyone, from PM, MoH, and any group or individual do that allowed infection to occur. So we can close those loopholes in future. It could something as minor as TDGeek felt a bit crook, but not too bad, but went anyway. Blame is the wrong word, but we need to find who was to blame, so we can add that loophole to the Pandemic Plan. Its certainly not inconceivable that another outbreak occurs next year, or 2025, it can happen anytime. We should have a great deal of learnings from this year.

I do not really understand this modern idea that blame is a bad thing. Blame = responsibility.

Surely responsibility is a necessary thing in this world? Both on a personal level and on a local/national administrative level.

I think the biggest learning should be that if/when this happens again, the border is sealed tighter than a duck's behind MUCH sooner so that we do not suffer the economic fallout to such a great degree.

Rikkitic

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#2460225 13-Apr-2020 10:50

I am absolutely terrified of the way this virus kills people. I am more afraid of that than I am of dying. People who think this is something to take lightly and want to go partying at the earliest opportunity really need to read this link. At my age and condition I will do everything in my power to avoid any contact at all until a vaccine or cure is developed. This is not something to play with!

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2460226 13-Apr-2020 10:51

ezbee:

With ANZAC Day coming up.

If lock-down level 4 comes off people are going to have to make some tough individual decisions on how they commemorate.

How does that work under Level 3 , and should one push the letter of the level 3 rules to the limit.

Just because you can have certain types of gatherings , or under social distancing should we call them 'scatterings'

Is that the best and most sensible way to handle ?

It isn't tough. Stay at home. I thought national events were already cancelled anyway?

I doubt that people who died in a war would actually be put out that people did not stand around outside potentially exacerbating a pandemic which threatened life and livelihood.

Rikkitic

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#2460231 13-Apr-2020 11:02

I find this kind of thing incredibly depressing, both the idiotic behaviour of selfish morons and the inability of the police to respond in spite of what they keep saying. If there is no enforcement who is going to protect us from the morons?

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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