2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2427192 26-Feb-2020 07:54

Fred99:

tdgeek:

Batmans post from Singapore states that if you excluded Hubei, the mortality is 0.2%. I would assume thats correct, they can't just make that up.

They made it up. There really is no hard data available - so they have to make it up. They have to make up data for estimating flu mortality too - because you can't know what you can't know. A mild or asymptomatic case of flu isn't recorded as a "case" because it isn't recorded.

Do you think that China would quarantine / travel ban to the extent they have - causing massive economic damage to their economy - if this was "just the flu"?

Singapore said its just the flu, yet they also say they are doing this that and the next thing to fight it.

Batman

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#2427194 26-Feb-2020 07:59

tdgeek:

Singapore said its just the flu, yet they also say they are doing this that and the next thing to fight it.

Whatever they're doing, seems to be working?

Fred99

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#2427195 26-Feb-2020 08:02

tdgeek:

Singapore said its just the flu, yet they also say they are doing this that and the next thing to fight it.

I think it matters more what Singapore did - not what they're reported as saying.

Their contact tracing, isolation, treatment, and reporting has been excellent. They probably do have 91 cases as reported, 7 are listed as "critical" - 1/2 of "critical" cases in China die, the maths does not support a case fatality rate of 0.2% , even though it's 0% in Singapore.

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#2427198 26-Feb-2020 08:11

Fred99:

tdgeek:

Singapore said its just the flu, yet they also say they are doing this that and the next thing to fight it.

I think it matters more what Singapore did - not what they're reported as saying.

Their contact tracing, isolation, treatment, and reporting has been excellent. They probably do have 91 cases as reported, 7 are listed as "critical" - 1/2 of "critical" cases in China die, the maths does not support a case fatality rate of 0.2% , even though it's 0% in Singapore.

It would be good to know the overall demographics. Lots of elders in China, as the elders are pre one child policy, so maybe a slight skew there favouring older people. Probbaly harder to get care too. Probably less elders in Singapore?

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#2427202 26-Feb-2020 08:26

tdgeek:

It would be good to know the overall demographics. Lots of elders in China, as the elders are pre one child policy, so maybe a slight skew there favouring older people. Probbaly harder to get care too. Probably less elders in Singapore?

There are actually more older people in NZ than in China as % of the population. Singapore - I don't know. I suggest you don't trust official case data out of China - their crisis management includes economic crisis management, as a totalitarian state with a history of putting the party ahead of the people, in a "wartime level" crisis, truth is even more likely be be turfed out the window.

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#2427223 26-Feb-2020 09:14

The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted the 'Clade X' pandemic exercise in 2018.
One interesting study they did was on the number of 'full-feature mechanical ventilators' available in ICU's of various countries.

Per 100,000 population:

The USA has 20.5
Canada 8.7
New Zealand and Australia - 5.4 ICU beds with mechanical ventilation capability.

They also noted "a limiting factor during a pandemic-level crisis would be the number of respiratory therapists"

One of the issues with deployment of these is the cost - a basic ICU type ventilator costs over US$12K not including the disposables.
In China they've been brought in (along with the support staff) from all over the country.

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#2427410 26-Feb-2020 12:28

Sidestep:

One interesting study they did was on the number of 'full-feature mechanical ventilators' available in ICU's of various countries.

Per 100,000 population:

The USA has 20.5
Canada 8.7
New Zealand and Australia - 5.4 ICU beds with mechanical ventilation capability.

The USA figure may be misleading. An interesting Louis Theroux documentary last night looked at end-of-life health care in LA. They made the assertion that increasingly, people are being cared for long-term in essentially ICU conditions... if it's all being paid for by health insurance, you have nothing to lose by keeping a loved one alive, despite the chances of them returning to consciousness, let alone to ~normality, being practically zero. And the hospital has a lot to gain financially too.

Consequently, many of those ICUs and mechanical ventilators may be occupied long-term and not available for emergency cases.

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gehenna

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#2427430 26-Feb-2020 12:56

The gap between the facts and narrative of a Louis Theroux documentary make it difficult to use as evidence of anything.

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#2427471 26-Feb-2020 13:44

One should look to another spot ... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/23/world/europe/italy-coronavirus.html

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#2427505 26-Feb-2020 14:04

U.S. CDC asks people to start getting ready:

"We're asking folks in every sector, as well as people within their families, to start planning for this, because as we've seen from the recent countries that have had community spread, when it hit in those countries, it has moved quite rapidly"

I would recommend that for peoples jobs where it is feasible, they get set up for working from home (Computer & phone requirements). This is a good idea anyway - my old employer both their wellington and Christchurch offices in separate earthquakes...

Would also be good to plan how you would cope if confined to your home for a long period (and say like some area's of china, only one person allowed out once a week to get supplies, or random food gets dropped at your door every few days).

I don't think people need to prep like the TV shows. This isn't likely to turn out like a Will Smith movie. Power, water, sewage networks and supermarket food supply chains are likely to be unaffected.

Regardless if the virus turns up here, as factories in china are only running at around 50% (as estimated by the leader of a major sea freight company), products that are made in china, or dependent source products from china may become harder to come by.

mattwnz

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#2427591 26-Feb-2020 16:31

I am wondering if this would have been treated differently if this was something like Ebola, in terms of people being able to travel between countries? I am also wondering if it does get rated as a Pandemic by the WHO, whether they will be imposing more travel restrictions, or if they will lift them entirely and let this just spread?. Already the fear in the financial markets has been bad.

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#2427596 26-Feb-2020 16:45

mattwnz:

I am wondering if this would have been treated differently if this was something like Ebola, in terms of people being able to travel between countries? I am also wondering if it does get rated as a Pandemic by the WHO, whether they will be imposing more travel restrictions, or if they will lift them entirely and let this just spread?. Already the fear in the financial markets has been bad.

The financial markets should not be looked upon as a barometer for this, they generally behave like demented reef fish and as jittery as a field mouse in a cattery.

mattwnz

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#2427621 26-Feb-2020 17:13

MikeB4:

mattwnz:

I am wondering if this would have been treated differently if this was something like Ebola, in terms of people being able to travel between countries? I am also wondering if it does get rated as a Pandemic by the WHO, whether they will be imposing more travel restrictions, or if they will lift them entirely and let this just spread?. Already the fear in the financial markets has been bad.

The financial markets should not be looked upon as a barometer for this, they generally behave like demented reef fish and as jittery as a field mouse in a cattery.

Maybe, but shares are already seen as way overvalued, partly due to the historically low interest rates, where people who want some return on their savings have put their money into shares, or houses. Peoples kiwisavers could also be badly affected depending on how it plays out and the fund they are in, and how the sharemarket reacts over the longer term. So these sorts of events can jolt big corrections.

MikeB4

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#2427624 26-Feb-2020 17:18

mattwnz:

Maybe, but shares are already seen as way overvalued, partly due to the historically low interest rates, where people who want some return on their savings have put their money into shares, or houses. Peoples kiwisavers could also be badly affected depending on how it plays out and the fund they are in, and how the sharemarket reacts over the longer term. So these sorts of events can jolt big corrections.

Most of my shares have more or less recovered from the loses earlier this week. The only exception are the Spark shares but they are still above my initial buy price. Just need to ride it out and maybe buy some that are still at historical lows.

dafman

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#2427626 26-Feb-2020 17:28

mattwnz:
Maybe, but shares are already seen as way overvalued, partly due to the historically low interest rates, where people who want some return on their savings have put their money into shares, or houses. Peoples kiwisavers could also be badly affected depending on how it plays out and the fund they are in, and how the sharemarket reacts over the longer term. So these sorts of events can jolt big corrections.

Shares and houses are a massive bubble, if coronavirus causes a correction, it's the only good thing I can see coming out of it.

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