2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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5896 posts

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#2533597 3-Aug-2020 11:12

trig42:

There will be CT.

The government will have every one of their appendages crossed that it doesn't happen before the election (especially if the media find out that it came out of a MIQ hotel through something that could have been prevented)

Eh, I am resigned to the fact that CT is likely to either be caused by an abscondee (less likely) or a false day 12 negative test (small chance but not impossible). Neither one of these is things we can do anything about - a false negative is inevitable but it is also just bad luck if all other precautions are taken. The longer we have to quarantine, the higher the chance of a false negative causing an outbreak is.

I suspect this is why the Covid19 ads are back and people are being reminded that Level One is still Level-something, not just BAU.

Fred99

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#2533600 3-Aug-2020 11:18

sbiddle:

Ultimately the only solution for Covid-19 is herd immunity, and in most countries this will be a combination of natural immunity (which several medical papers have already argued exists in some countries, hence their low spread of Covid-19 and other coronaviruses) and a vaccine.

That's a hypothesis based on very little evidence. Age demographics, mobility, behaviour / compliance with distancing etc or "something else" could explain it.

It's possible that the same applies with influenza - cross immunity. We *should* have had repeats of the the 1918 pandemic - especially with increased global travel, higher population etc - but we haven't (yet). One hypothesis about why that pandemic disproportionately killed young fit people was that many older people may have had some cross-immunity to H1N1, as possibly most of the world's population had been infected with another strain (not H1N1) in a far less deadly global pandemic in 1889-90.

Fred99

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#2533604 3-Aug-2020 11:21

GV27:

trig42:

There will be CT.

The government will have every one of their appendages crossed that it doesn't happen before the election (especially if the media find out that it came out of a MIQ hotel through something that could have been prevented)

Eh, I am resigned to the fact that CT is likely to either be caused by an abscondee (less likely) or a false day 12 negative test (small chance but not impossible). Neither one of these is things we can do anything about - a false negative is inevitable but it is also just bad luck if all other precautions are taken. The longer we have to quarantine, the higher the chance of a false negative causing an outbreak is.

I suspect this is why the Covid19 ads are back and people are being reminded that Level One is still Level-something, not just BAU.

Well if it happens then I hope we don't wait until we've got Victoria level CT before locking down hard and fast. They made a big mistake.

GV27

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#2533609 3-Aug-2020 11:37

Fred99:

Well if it happens then I hope we don't wait until we've got Victoria level CT before locking down hard and fast. They made a big mistake.

At the moment I'm guessing the low testing rates wouldn't give us a great chance of picking it up, given that you'd have a lot of asymptomatic spread before it registered enough symptomatic cases to get picked up in testing or at hospitals.

It would also explain why they are frantically trying to scale up community testing again, so I see them as taking reasonable precautions (assuming they don't have reason to believe it's already out there, which they apparently don't).

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#2533614 3-Aug-2020 11:48

FineWine:

Read this little article this morning on CNN:

Do some people have protection against the coronavirus?

that certainly explains why people are asymptomatic.

now i want to know if my T-cells will see it or not ... which lab do i call up?

tdgeek

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#2533618 3-Aug-2020 11:52

Fred99:

Well if it happens then I hope we don't wait until we've got Victoria level CT before locking down hard and fast. They made a big mistake.

I would doubt it. They have said from day 1, and any day that anyone wants to ask that they expect CT. Ring fence. Local restrictions, all of this is old news and BAU

But the public will think the world has ended and its a massive failure.

frankv

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#2533646 3-Aug-2020 12:15

wellygary:

it will really show up over summer,

Typically Kiwis who holiday in winter tend to do so overseas, they are having to do so at home this year, so they are covering up the missing international tourist in the low season....

BUT.... come summer international tourists will simply not arrive... that's a hole of around 1.5 million visitors spending billions, Kiwis will not be able to make up the difference as they are typically also holidaying locally....

The government is pumping up its "$300 million" package, but over the summer international arrivals spends over $100 million per day...... so the govt's contribution is 3 days of regular income....

I think that Kiwis who would have holidayed overseas this winter *won't* holiday in NZ this winter. After all, in the NZ winter they weren't going to Aspen to ski. They were going to warmer climes. So they'll holiday in NZ in *summer*, and the people who are holidaying in NZ this winter are a different demographic.

I'm wondering about the amount of money normally drained from NZ's economy each year by people taking overseas holidays. Whilst some of that will go into savings for an overseas holiday post-covid, I think a fair amount is getting spent domestically, and that will continue. Case in point; a car upholsterer told me business has been booming ever since lockdown... Kiwis are buying/building mobile homes with the intention of holidaying in NZ.

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duckDecoy

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#2533652 3-Aug-2020 12:23

GV27:

Eh, I am resigned to the fact that CT is likely to either be caused by an abscondee (less likely) or a false day 12 negative test (small chance but not impossible).

There are guards and moonlighting nurses and staff etc going into these hotels every day and then back out home into the community. I would be guessing that's going to be the most likely avenue?

ezbee

2405 posts

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#2533653 3-Aug-2020 12:23

Should we get breech of quarantine, we will take action, be it local postcode to national restrictions.
To a degree we now have experience to do this again with better response having climbed the learning curve.

Melbourne provides close to home lessons, and you can see that other Aussie states also have their eye on NSW continuing risk to them.
Oh PPE, after all this time i see this came up in report on Melbourne, yep medical staff are reporting a lack of PPE.... Again!
Unless you have put in your own factories like Taiwan did you are still competing with growing global demand for quality PPE.
So standing in front of an outbreak, is not sustainable, you have to crush it.

Australia, Europe , UK , Hong Kong, Singapore etc all show if you have to do restrictions a 2nd and a 3rd time you will do it.

The quick action from other states of Australia ,shows you won't have open tourism in face of an outbreak anyway, see UK and Spain too.
Your fellow Aussies are here to support you, just stay a bargepole away.

Once your medical staff point out the consequences of overflowing hospitals, the limits of their staff to handle week after week grind.
Don't forget sacrifices staff made living in their garages or away from their families, and constant high stress work in uncomfortable PPE.
In the background medical staff also have the prospect that they can get deadly heavy viral loads from their patients.

It maybe remembered our shift to level 4 did coincide with a petition circulating around medical staff that immediate action was required.
Day after we went to level 3 , a few days after level 4.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120477240/coronavirus-doctor-group--raise-threat-level-now-or-risk-becoming-like-italy

It does not need to be forever, we are buying time.
Time until places further down the queue like us can get vaccines and treatments to live with or preferably without this.

There are a raft of differing approaches , so vs a single silver bullet we are likely to have a varied armory available.

Edit, Untangling sentences.

GV27

5896 posts

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#2533656 3-Aug-2020 12:39

duckDecoy:

GV27:

Eh, I am resigned to the fact that CT is likely to either be caused by an abscondee (less likely) or a false day 12 negative test (small chance but not impossible).

There are guards and moonlighting nurses and staff etc going into these hotels every day and then back out home into the community. I would be guessing that's going to be the most likely avenue?

Perhaps. Frankly I'm surprised we haven't seen a false negative-driven result in the wild yet.

Fred99

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#2533745 3-Aug-2020 14:08

FineWine:

Read this little article this morning on CNN:

Do some people have protection against the coronavirus?

Betteridge's Law?

Tinkerisk

4224 posts

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#2533775 3-Aug-2020 14:36

"Can a second wave of illness be expected?

Due to the low prevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in the sample examined, a large part of the population is probably still susceptible to infection. Thus, if the transmissions increase again, another wave of infection could also occur.
This is an interim result and therefore the data do not yet allow a reliable estimate of the temporal and regional development of the infection of the examined population.
The nationwide (Germany) test will be repeated every 14 days in the group of donors until the end of September and continuously evaluated. A temporal and spatial estimation of the development of the detection of specific antibodies will then be possible."

The RKI (Robert Koch Institute) is continuously monitoring the situation, evaluating all available information, estimating the risk for the population and providing health professionals with recommendations.

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#2533831 3-Aug-2020 15:56

BBC News - New 90-minute tests for Covid-19 and flu 'hugely beneficial'

breaking

New "life-saving" 90-minute tests which can detect coronavirus and flu will be rolled out in care homes and laboratories from next week.

The "on-the-spot" swab and DNA tests will help distinguish between Covid-19 and other seasonal illnesses, the government said.

The health secretary said this would be "hugely beneficial" over the winter.

Currently, three quarters of [UK] test results are returned within 24 hours and a quarter can take up to two days. ...

Almost half a million of the new rapid swab tests will be available from next week in adult care settings and labs, with millions more due to be rolled out later in the year.

Additionally, thousands of DNA test machines, which have already been used in eight London hospitals and can analyse nose swabs, will be rolled out across NHS hospitals from September.

Around 5,000 machines will provide 5.8 million tests in the coming months, the department said. ...

(In the USA and Oz results can take 1-2 weeks to get back, rendering them irrelevant. NZ currently does better than this.)

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FineWine

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#2533864 3-Aug-2020 17:09

Fred99:

FineWine:

Read this little article this morning on CNN:

Do some people have protection against the coronavirus?

Betteridge's Law?

😎

In this case would it not be more arcuate to say; Not Proven (by substantial peer reviews)

The difficult we can do immediately. The impossible takes a bit longer. But Miracles you will have to wait for.

(a sign we had in our air force aircraft painting hanger)

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

mattwnz

20141 posts

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#2533869 3-Aug-2020 17:28

sbiddle:

trig42:

There will be CT.

The government will have every one of their appendages crossed that it doesn't happen before the election (especially if the media find out that it came out of a MIQ hotel through something that could have been prevented).

I saw an article over the weekend suggesting our only hope will be herd immunity, which means letting it run rampant. Obviously this is bad for those vulnerable to it, but short of a vaccine or effective treatment, it could be the world economy's only hope in the short/medium term.

Many people don't understand what herd immunity means. Many people just think of it as everybody becoming infected, which is simply not what it means.

We have herd immunity to other viruses and diseases because of either a) vaccines or b) natural immunity built up over time. When a certain percentage of people in the community become immune to virus or diseases due to either of these OR a combination of both it does not mean everybody is immune, but that the virus or disease us unable to spread because the number of high risk people is small, and eventually the disease or virus dies out.

Ultimately the only solution for Covid-19 is herd immunity, and in most countries this will be a combination of natural immunity (which several medical papers have already argued exists in some countries, hence their low spread of Covid-19 and other coronaviruses) and a vaccine.

We've seen reports now of areas such as the slums of Mumbai where case numbers have dropped and antibody testing has shown that potentially over 50% of people have had the disease. This is quite possibly leading to natural herd immunity because the virus is simply got nobody else to infect causing it to die out.

You are making assumptions. The fact is the WHO has already said that there is no evidence of long term immunity once one has had the virus, and that countries should get rid of the virus, and not try an live with it. Some countries like Vietnam may have some form of natural immunity or it doesn't affect them as badly, due to he way the virus has played out over there, but there is no evidence that everyone or all countries do. Likewise, we don't know the true numbers in third world countries and all of the stats, and we may never know them.

In Sweden who is following the herd immunity route, their lives are still restricted within their community. More so that NZ is now, which essentially has no restrictions. It also discriminates against older people, because they are going to be the most affected by choosing to go down the herd immunity route. This means that older people have to be kept isolated in Covid countries, which badly affects their quality of life and mental health. Many are essentially under a form of house arrest, and can't go out and about and socialize, at the supposed cost of keeping the economy going in a Covid infected country. That doesn't sound right or fair to me to have certain age groups quality of life being badly restricted . The UK changed tack, because their modeling showed that trying herd immunity wasn't going to go well for them

Swedens economy has suffered, and they have also had a lot of deaths. NZ has not had mass death and our economy may not suffer as much, due to the way most of the 5 million of us worked to get rid of the virus. NZ businesses currently don't have social distancing to worry about. I have heard infact that some small NZ businesses are currently doing really well, and people are out there spending.

So the solution was to get on top of the virus early and eliminate it IMO. NZ has done this. So as long as we keep it out at the border, we are free of covid and EVERYONE in the NZ community can live a normal Covid free life within NZ without having to wear masks, and other social restrictions. This includes older people.

I understand that people could in the future choose to travel outside NZ during the global pandemic if they wish or do business or holiday etc, but they would wear the cost of quarantining when they come back, which IMO is reasonable. We do need to remember that this is a global pandemic so is it wise for people to traveling for holidays, until it is over?

You are also assuming that there is not going to be any vaccine. A vaccine would be far better than 'herd immunity', if herd immunity will even work. A vaccine shouldn't kill or badly affect the health(possibly long term problems for some) of a relatively high percentage of people (between 0.5-5% depending on the country) that get the virus as part of the herd immunity process. As the elderly are often being kept isolated in Covid countries, then those groups of people aren't likely to ever get herd immunity.

So if you have rest homes or retirement villages, those groups of people could be badly affected, even once the rest of the population gets close to a form of herd immunity, because even with herd immunity, the odd case may still exist as it won't mean the virus will be eradicated, and it could still get into areas without herd immunity, such as rest homes. So the only long term solution IMO, is either a vaccine, or better treatment, or the virus eventually weakens as it mutates and dies out, or just becomes like a cold. Herd Immunity may end up working for some countries, time will tell, but it is a gamble, and at what cost to the economy apart from a lot of death, especially in older people.

The other think is that Sweden apparently has far more ICU capacity than NZ has, so they potentially could do what they did, and not overwhelm their health system. NZs ICU capacity isn't that great, and I don't think Australia's is too much better, although it may have improved since I last saw their ICU numbers. But ICU capacity and not overwhelming the health system is a major part of going down the herd immunity route, and if we don't have that capacity, then the last thing we want to do is to put all that pressure and work on our doctors, nurses, and the health system. We also need to remember that in order for NZ to have much ICU capacity that we had during level 4 lockdown, we had to cancel operations, and reduce peoples movement to reduce accidents occurring etc, so to not put demand on the hospitals, as NZs health system works at high capacity most of the time.I think some people have forgotten this.

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