So the Harvard Fall Survey for young voters is out. https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/48th-edition-fall-2024

Her gap didnt change +31pt.

But the amount did with now 64%, why this may spell more votes even though the same support gap between Harris and Trump, is the ever increasing "enthusiasm" advantage, with 74$ of young Democrats saying they will definitely vote to the 60% for Republicans.

So I did have total numbers expected to vote worked out but I closed my math before saving. But least to say is, it is highly likely the momentum among young democrats is really strong and their numbers will make a difference. It a largely under reported "number" for the Swing states. 

So with early voting, I didnt know this, but the parties can see where the numbers are landing and so Im lead to believe their strategists make last minute adjustments at a certain point of clarity.

Lots of interesting stats in there, the gender gap one widening so much I didnt expect.

Proj 2025 being rejected by both sides was good to see, but still dont get why if you know its bad for your future why you would still vote for it, might be a twist in the stat with another etc.

The positive meme impact stat for Harris vs the negative for Trump is showing the risky strategy with Tikitok presence etc paying off.

So with polls the last couple of days we have had some outliers swing the avgs a bit with NYT/Sienna and Fox news polls both being known for leaning red historically. I have no issue with that as plenty enough lean slightly blue too. 

Still Razor thin lead for Harris, but you could also say some razor thin avgs for Trump which if break Blue will likely seal things snuggly. But the blue wall has to hold, but with so many in play the pathway for victory could be very different. If Harris picks up Georgia (there today) and NC, both are 16EV, quite the buffer if Wisconsin does a random and breaks Red, But arizona with Nevada is a nice 11+ 6 combination could be useful..

and then there is the chance they all break blue causing an unexpected landslide. But Im still mentally preparing for a Trump win, just in case.