EV (electric vehicle) News & Discussion

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517 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2018095 18-May-2018 02:21

frednz:

And should plug-in hybrids be included as part of the 64,000 target, after all they can travel at least 600 kms on a full tank of petrol?

But the issue is that we DON'T want people burning petrol. What is worse is that a new hybrid will end up staying on NZ roads for a couple of decades.

My prediction: Almost all new cars will be full battery EVs by 2030. By then they will all have a range of 500km or better and charging won't be a big issue. If you can buy a new Nissan Leaf with 120kWh solid-state battery (that comes with a 25-year battery warranty) for no more than a petrol car, and that is the cheap model with 720km range - who needs petrol? There will be longer range versions available that can tow a trailer and still go for more than 300km, no one will need a diesel for towing.

Sure, EV adoption seems to be picking up slowly, but it will be a LOT different over the next 5 years with a lot more makes and models to choose from and an ever-improving battery range available. If newer tech like solid state batteries can be brought out at lower prices then it won't be hard for EVs to have a lower TCO.

GV27

5896 posts

Uber Geek

#2018108 18-May-2018 06:59

MarkH67:

frednz:

And should plug-in hybrids be included as part of the 64,000 target, after all they can travel at least 600 kms on a full tank of petrol?

But the issue is that we DON'T want people burning petrol. What is worse is that a new hybrid will end up staying on NZ roads for a couple of decades.

My prediction: Almost all new cars will be full battery EVs by 2030. By then they will all have a range of 500km or better and charging won't be a big issue. If you can buy a new Nissan Leaf with 120kWh solid-state battery (that comes with a 25-year battery warranty) for no more than a petrol car, and that is the cheap model with 720km range - who needs petrol? There will be longer range versions available that can tow a trailer and still go for more than 300km, no one will need a diesel for towing.

Sure, EV adoption seems to be picking up slowly, but it will be a LOT different over the next 5 years with a lot more makes and models to choose from and an ever-improving battery range available. If newer tech like solid state batteries can be brought out at lower prices then it won't be hard for EVs to have a lower TCO.

New cars? Yes, possibly. But that's still ten years of cars idling in congestion whereas a hybrid system significantly cuts that cost. The proliferation of hybrid tech is also picking up pace; I could get a hybrid Suzuki Swift out of Japan rated for 1000km per tank. Perfect is the enemy of good enough etc.

If full BEVs dominate available new cars by 2030 then it will be 2050 until there is mass adoption on the roads. I'm talking your average Westie and South Auckland family buying a BEV seven seater for the same price as they can get an MPV today; because it's cheaper. But that's still 30 years away.

E: I edited this because I'd typed single-seater instead of seven seater. Serves me right for reading F1 news at work.

tdgeek

29740 posts

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#2018112 18-May-2018 07:25

frednz:

And should plug-in hybrids be included as part of the 64,000 target, after all they can travel at least 600 kms on a full tank of petrol?

They are ICE with a pitiful EV component. And inefficient at both ICE and EV usage

gzt

17104 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2018143 18-May-2018 09:20

frednz:
Linuxluver:

This is a chicken and egg issue.

We're a small market with no local incentives or sale regulations....so car makers have no incentive to sell EVs here. in California there are well over 50 models available from across every major car maker. That's because they pay penalties if they fail to see a certain percentage of EVs of their total sales. Plus buyers get incentives at both state and federal levels. Flip the Fleet....and do it fast.

If we introduced a similar regime, plus purchase incentives of some sort.....then we'd see all kinds of vehicles entering our market. Certainly more than the 3 or 4 pure EVs we see today (BMW, Hyundai, Renault, LDV (big van)and Tesla).

This is the same old problem: Today is useless as a guide tomorrow. You have to change things to change tomorrow. Some people have zero ability to extrapolate. I found this 30 years ago when trying to educate people about MMP. Many are totally unable to apply new rules / incentives to human behaviour.....even when you provide clear, unambiguous existing examples of exactly that.

https://www.transport.govt.nz/multi-modal/climatechange/electric-vehicles/

The above site explains there is a target of 64,000 EVs to be registered in NZ by the end of 2021. At the current rate of uptake of EVs, do you think this target will in fact be reached by the end of 2021? If so, is there really a need for more incentives than are referred to in the above web site?

Or is the target of 64,000 vehicles by the end of 2021 too small - if so, what is a more realistic target?

And should plug-in hybrids be included as part of the 64,000 target, after all they can travel at least 600 kms on a full tank of petrol?

I've been anti ev subsidies in nz. Mostly because how to apply them with any degree of fairness and efficiency. No point subsidising a vehicle to sit in a garage when it was not going to use much gas in the first place.

Ird has vehicle business records and is probably in the best position to apply something with the milage qualifications.

Imo for cars set it at min 700km per week. For the payoff increase the depreciation a bit in the first year and give another depreciation when sold with less than 70,000 km on it to encourage a secondary market and diffusion into the general vehicle population and plenty of kms left.

Actually this is unlikely to work well because the secondary market is import at 2yrs probably 20k for the equivalent leaf (English dash). Maybe it would come close enough and increase volume. Clearly the exact margin and benefit is dependent.

MarkH67

517 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2018385 18-May-2018 14:49

GV27:

New cars? Yes, possibly. But that's still ten years of cars idling in congestion whereas a hybrid system significantly cuts that cost. The proliferation of hybrid tech is also picking up pace; I could get a hybrid Suzuki Swift out of Japan rated for 1000km per tank. Perfect is the enemy of good enough etc.

If full BEVs dominate available new cars by 2030 then it will be 2050 until there is mass adoption on the roads. I'm talking your average Westie and South Auckland family buying a BEV seven seater for the same price as they can get an MPV today; because it's cheaper. But that's still 30 years away.

I must disagree.

The average westie does not buy a 20-year-old car and nor does a South Auckland family. They might buy a 10-year-old car and drive it for another 10 years, but that isn't the same thing. Furthermore, there is nothing stopping a South Auckland family from buying a 2025 EV in 2035 - how does it take to 2050 to be able to buy a reasonably priced 2nd hand EV?

The average age of NZs fleet is about 14 years, that means that there is no way that it is normal to buy a 20-year-old car, that would make the car significantly older than average at the time of purchase. Many people have older than average cars at the time of replacing them, but few would have older than average cars at the time of purchasing them.

If anything, people will more quickly move to EVs due to the cost savings to run them. If in 2023 there are new cars with solid state batteries that are capable of lasting the life of the car easily, then in 2028 there are plenty of potential buyers for 5-year-old 2nd hand cars. The idea of it being 2050 before mass adoption of EVs is kinda ridiculous. If by 2030 almost all new cars sold are BEVs then that would suggest that the percentage of sales of EVs had been climbing for the previous 12 years, so a fairly high percentage of 2nd hand sales would also be BEVs.

I also doubt that many drivers need a car with 1,000km range out of a tank. Based on the average kilometres driven by NZers, that would be around 5 weeks worth for the average driver. If the average NZ driver travels 30km on a weekday then surely a BEV that can run 360km on a charge offers no real inconvenience to most potential owners.

Let's bring this much closer to current day: By the end of this year there will be multiple BEVs that have 60kWh batteries and can run for ~360km on a charge. By the end of 2020 there will be many two-year old 2nd hand BEVs with 60kWh batteries for people that can't afford new cars could buy. Why buy a hybrid when you can get a BEV that uses no petrol at all? BTW - have you noticed the recent price increases for petrol?

GV27

5896 posts

Uber Geek

#2018415 18-May-2018 15:34

MarkH67:

I must disagree.

The average westie does not buy a 20-year-old car and nor does a South Auckland family. They might buy a 10-year-old car and drive it for another 10 years, but that isn't the same thing. Furthermore, there is nothing stopping a South Auckland family from buying a 2025 EV in 2035 - how does it take to 2050 to be able to buy a reasonably priced 2nd hand EV?

The average age of NZs fleet is about 14 years, that means that there is no way that it is normal to buy a 20-year-old car, that would make the car significantly older than average at the time of purchase. Many people have older than average cars at the time of replacing them, but few would have older than average cars at the time of purchasing them.

If anything, people will more quickly move to EVs due to the cost savings to run them. If in 2023 there are new cars with solid state batteries that are capable of lasting the life of the car easily, then in 2028 there are plenty of potential buyers for 5-year-old 2nd hand cars. The idea of it being 2050 before mass adoption of EVs is kinda ridiculous. If by 2030 almost all new cars sold are BEVs then that would suggest that the percentage of sales of EVs had been climbing for the previous 12 years, so a fairly high percentage of 2nd hand sales would also be BEVs.

I also doubt that many drivers need a car with 1,000km range out of a tank. Based on the average kilometres driven by NZers, that would be around 5 weeks worth for the average driver. If the average NZ driver travels 30km on a weekday then surely a BEV that can run 360km on a charge offers no real inconvenience to most potential owners.

Let's bring this much closer to current day: By the end of this year there will be multiple BEVs that have 60kWh batteries and can run for ~360km on a charge. By the end of 2020 there will be many two-year old 2nd hand BEVs with 60kWh batteries for people that can't afford new cars could buy. Why buy a hybrid when you can get a BEV that uses no petrol at all? BTW - have you noticed the recent price increases for petrol?

"Multiple BEVS with 60 KWh batteries"? Will there be any under $70,000?

If 1,000km is a month of driving on a tank, then I can estimate my cost of gas to be around $100 a month. That's $1200 a year. That's a significant capital outlay in the difference between a car I can buy today and a fictional BEV in the future.

I hope you are right and there is some sort of Moore's Law for power density and your average second-hand Swift has a range of 350km on a charge - that for me will represent the sweet spot.

MarkH67

517 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2018420 18-May-2018 15:51

GV27:

"Multiple BEVS with 60 KWh batteries"? Will there be any under $70,000?

I'm not one to buy new vehicles generally (ignore my current motorcycle) because of the high cost and massive depreciation hit. To be honest, being under $70k is a long way from being a price I'd be willing to pay and I doubt that any of the 60kWh cars due out will cost much under $70k (maybe $69,990 if we are lucky). But for those of us that normally buy 2nd hand for the massive savings, I can only hope that by the end of 2020 a 2-year-old 60kWh BEV might be available at a not too eye-watering price.

I'm less worried about some fantastic improvement in battery capacity over time. I'm more hopeful of a reasonable decline in the price of batteries over time. There are already BEVs with decent enough battery capacity, just not at the right price for the mass market. I'd be pretty happy with 360km range, but I'd need to be able to afford to buy the car that has it.

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wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2018422 18-May-2018 15:53

GV27:

"Multiple BEVS with 60 KWh batteries"? Will there be any under $70,000?

and that's the kicker, while Battery prices fall, new EVs don't fall in price, they just rise in spec and range

When Nissan first sold Leaf in NZ they were ~70K (they did dump a whole lot of ex Aussie ones for about $40K later, but that's another story)

I am expecting the new 40KW leaf to only be marginally under that (60-65), while the 60w will definitely be above it...

Until EV makers can convince customers that XXKwh is enough, customers will keep craving bigger batteries, and that will keep the price up,

I think we are probably one more generation away ( around 60Kw) until we get to an generally acceptable battery to assuage "range anxiety" - now whether that anxiety is rational or not is a moot point, but as long as it exists it will drive EV manufacturers to make vehicles with larger batteries and keep price up...

MarkH67

517 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2018425 18-May-2018 16:15

wellygary:

I am expecting the new 40KW leaf to only be marginally under that (60-65), while the 60w will definitely be above it...

My guess for the 60kWh version of the Nissan Leaf would be around $75k. What we need is a higher capacity battery version so that the 60kWh version could be the better priced one.

paulchinnz

Circumspice
793 posts

Ultimate Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2018509 18-May-2018 18:40

Already have Tesla S and X with > 60kWh ... albeit not a fair comparison given they're luxury cars.

Will be interesting to see what 60 kWh Leaf and 64 kWh Kona do to the 2017 e-Golf and Ioniq, which are $60k cars new currently. May not be much if the former pair come out as $80k cars, but if they're close to $70k...

nunz

1421 posts

Uber Geek
Inactive user

#2018573 18-May-2018 20:05

MarkH67:

GV27:

New cars? Yes, possibly. But that's still ten years of cars idling in congestion whereas a hybrid system significantly cuts that cost. The proliferation of hybrid tech is also picking up pace; I could get a hybrid Suzuki Swift out of Japan rated for 1000km per tank. Perfect is the enemy of good enough etc.

If full BEVs dominate available new cars by 2030 then it will be 2050 until there is mass adoption on the roads. I'm talking your average Westie and South Auckland family buying a BEV seven seater for the same price as they can get an MPV today; because it's cheaper. But that's still 30 years away.

I must disagree.

The average westie does not buy a 20-year-old car and nor does a South Auckland family. They might buy a 10-year-old car and drive it for another 10 years, but that isn't the same thing. Furthermore, there is nothing stopping a South Auckland family from buying a 2025 EV in 2035 - how does it take to 2050 to be able to buy a reasonably priced 2nd hand EV?

...

I also doubt that many drivers need a car with 1,000km range out of a tank. Based on the average kilometres driven by NZers, that would be around 5 weeks worth for the average driver. If the average NZ driver travels 30km on a weekday then surely a BEV that can run 360km on a charge offers no real inconvenience to most potential owners.

Let's bring this much closer to current day: By the end of this year there will be multiple BEVs that have 60kWh batteries and can run for ~360km on a charge. By the end of 2020 there will be many two-year old 2nd hand BEVs with 60kWh batteries for people that can't afford new cars could buy. Why buy a hybrid when you can get a BEV that uses no petrol at all? BTW - have you noticed the recent price increases for petrol?

The problem with saying the average driver on an average week is that most of us at some point in the year become un-average and go on holiday. For me - 4 kids, 2 adults, camping gear and up to Arthur's pass (150km one way) and no charging stations is likely to keep me from smaller 'tanked' cars. Part of my lifestyle is traveling with family on holidays and that doesn't work if you have to stop and refuel twice on a trip somewhere.

Also the extra weight of kids and gear - keeps that range lower - so more juice is good. i had a Honda 2.2litre Oddessy. Okay during the week but going camping was a disaster. i now drive an environmentally friendly 95 Izuzu Bighorn 2.4litre diesel. Save more ice caps and hummingbirds buying that than buying a new EV or hybrid will over the next 10 years of its life. Diesel included. it also gives me the range and uphill ability to make it into the mountains and hills. Still waiting for an EV that will let me do that.

tripper1000

1617 posts

Uber Geek

#2018604 18-May-2018 21:17

@nunz - once or twice a year, everyone does journey that is out of the "average" - even EV drivers, but do you buy a car suitable for what you do every day, or suitable for what you do once/twice a year? The current affordable EV's are great as a second car, but no one is saying they are a suitable replacement for your People Mover, Hilux, Hiace, campervan or Hi-ab truck.

If you are doing near to the maximum range of an EV on a daily basis, then you are an ideal candidate for owning one. The more KM's you are doing, the faster they pay themselves back in savings. My brother does a commute of 150km per day and calculated that a $25K EV will completely pay for it self in saved fuel in 4 -5 years. He could afford to buy an EV and keep his people mover/Hilux/Hiace for that once a year trip to the ski feilds and still be saving money. Other people I have bumped into have ditched their petrol cars completely and hire a petrol vehicle for those once/twice a year special trips - they are still saving money and the two upsides are that they always have the latest model vehicle for their special trips and they can get a different vehicle everytime, tailored for the number of passengers and/or type of cargo and/or destination.

tripper1000

1617 posts

Uber Geek

#2018605 18-May-2018 21:26

I think a lot of people are underestimating how fast EV's are going to take over.

Hybrids are a stepping stone to full EV. The further time goes by, the greater the range of plugin hybrids is becoming and soon even the hardest skeptics will realise they're barely ever buying petrol.

There are few sub 50kw EV's being manufactured in 2018 and there will basicly be nothing under 80kw by 2020 - meaning EV's will have the same range as your average petrol.

On the current battery price-drop trajectory, EV's will be cheaper than petrols buy 2025, which will means most city dwellers will be buying EVs because there will be no disadvantages and plenty of advantages.

It is quite concievable that swags of "poor" people will be driving EV's by 2035.

frednz

1467 posts

Uber Geek
Inactive user

#2018609 18-May-2018 21:31

paulchinnz:

Already have Tesla S and X with > 60kWh ... albeit not a fair comparison given they're luxury cars.

Will be interesting to see what 60 kWh Leaf and 64 kWh Kona do to the 2017 e-Golf and Ioniq, which are $60k cars new currently. May not be much if the former pair come out as $80k cars, but if they're close to $70k...

If they're close to $70,000 they're still way too expensive! There's a potential for huge depreciation when you buy an EV that costs that much!

Now, how long will it be before a NZ-New 64 kWh Kona (or similar) can be bought for around $35,000 - $40,000? Until that time comes, petrol vehicles will continue to be the vehicles of choice and this won't help to reduce global warming!

tripper1000

1617 posts

Uber Geek

#2018650 18-May-2018 22:27

With regard to Subsidies, these are a government lever, and can be used to steer the country in a chosen direction. There is debate here about subsidies where there has not been debate overseas. Why? Compared to other countries, N.Z. is quite naive and blasé in terms of strategic resources — this is why the fuel pipe-line burst surprised everyone so much. Your typical Kiwi's seems to believe the status-quo is inevitable (ergo they do things like apologise for dropping Nukes on Japan) loosing sight of the truth that we are where we are and have what we have because earlier generations have toiled, strategized and consciously engineered their futures. Our ancestors chose, designed, bought and paid for their destiny/our inheritance. That destiny/our inheritance was not to be 3rd world country or a slave of Japan, Germany or Russia. Our independence, wealth and civil society today is direct product of the actions of people like the ones we remember on ANZAC day. It is entirely up to us what destiny we engineer and what we bequeath to our descendants. A great question is "who is at the wheel and where are we going". If we are asleep at the wheel (as I fear many kiwis are), we a not going to end up in a good place. A lot of other things will destroy our wealth and lifestyle before mother nature/CO2.

I personally am agnostic about CO2, and global warming/cooling (or is it climate change this week?) However, it is indisputable that our society depends heavily on energy to create the wealth and life styles we enjoy. Presently other people outside of our country can deprive us of much of that energy if they so choose. They can even accidentally deprive us of energy as a bi product of a dispute we have no interest in. One thing is for sure, most of the counties selling oil are spending the profit of proliferation of savage religions, war and weapons. NZ is blessed with heaps of renewable energy — why not capture the energy in the rain, wind and sun and exploit it for the security of our life styles and betterment of our economy and world peace? And if I turn out to be wrong about the CO2 thing, then we are doing our part to save the whales, penguins, the poor people of Bangladesh and the beach front property values of Takapuna.

This is why I think EV subsidies would make New Zealand a better place.

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